| 管线断裂失效风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 马英利,王伟.管线断裂失效风险分析[J].管道技术与设备,2010(3):12-13,40. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马英利 王伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 辽河油田油气集输公司,辽宁盘锦,124010
2. 辽宁石油化工大学机械工程学院,辽宁抚顺,113001 |
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| 摘 要： | 含缺陷压力管系断裂失效风险分析系统,主要针对含缺陷压力管系断裂失效分析模式,结合实际操作工况,考虑多种载荷因素及材料性能参数,计算管系断裂失效风险。对无检测数据情况下工艺管线的失效概率进行了计算,对于同类问题的解决在方法上做了有益的尝试。以同期施工的同类材质、相同焊接条件的一批管线的缺陷检测数据作为依据,通过合理选取概率模型,计算得出管线的安全概率。概率安全评定结果表明：这些缺陷引起管道系统的失效风险概率比较低,缺陷的存在不足以威胁安全生产,整个管线仍处于良好状态。
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| 关 键 词： | 管线 断裂失效风险 缺陷 概率模型 |
Analysis of Pipeline Rapture Failure Probability |
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| MA Ying-li,WANG Wei.Analysis of Pipeline Rapture Failure Probability[J].Pipeline Technique and Equipment,2010(3):12-13,40. |
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| Authors: | MA Ying-li WANG Wei |
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| Institution: | 1.Liaohe Oilfield Oil and Gas Company,Panjin 124010,China;2.School of Mechanical Engineering,Liaoning Shihua University,Fushun 113001,China) |
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| Abstract: | The fracture failure risk analysis system for pressure piping system containing defects is used to calculate the rupture failure risk of pipeline,which is mainly focused on the model and practice,considering the multiple loads and material performance parameters.This paper calculate the rupture failure risk of pipeline without detection data,make favorable trials on the method to solve similar problems.Based on the detection data about contemporary pipeline of like materials and under the same welding conditions,through the rational choice of a probability model,this paper get the safety probability of the pipeline.The safety assessment result indicates that the rupture failure probability of the pipeline caused by these flaws is low and will not affect the safety in production and that,the whole pipeline is in good condition. |
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| Keywords: | pipeline rapture failure risk defect probability model |
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