基于运力均衡与运量转移的公路货运运力结构预测

针对传统公路货运运力结构趋势预测以及区域车辆结构均衡预测中不考虑总运量和单件重型货物运量分辟的预测方法存在的不足,提出了通过对分轮轴类型的公路货运车辆载质量谱的调查,获取基年车辆吨位的累积概率函数,并使用Logit模型对计划年公路货物总运量以及计划年载质量法规和超限严格管制力度改变情景下的单件重型货物运量进行转移预测,建立计划年单件货物质量概率分布函数,在此基础上基于运力均衡的理论建立计划年不同吨位车辆运力的求解模型。

Highway Truck Conveyance Configuration Forecasting Based on Conveyance Equilibrium and Freight Diversion

Aiming at the shortage on forecasting method of prevailing highway truck conveyance configuration trend forecasting and equilibrium forecasting of area vehicle configuration without considering overall freight and single cargo tonnage diversion,a new way to get accumulated probability function of truck power tonnage in basal year by highway truck classified by wheel and axle type load mass spectrum investigation was presented.Logit models were used to forecast overall highway freight diversion and single cargo tonnage diversion when the weight rules and strict of enforcement intensity of overload were changed in scheme year.Single cargo mass probability distribution function was got and based on it,solution model on truck conveyance of different tonnage in basal year was established according to conveyance equilibrium theory.