多方式交通网络的时间可靠性分析

面向小汽车和公交组成的多方式交通网络，建立公交到站时间迭代表达式，分别给出公交及小汽车的时间可靠性计算方法，构建包含时间可靠性的多方式交通网络均衡模型并设计求解算法.计算结果表明，开辟公交专用道及增加公交发车频率这两项措施，均能提高公交自身的时间可靠性及分担率，同时也能改善小汽车的时间可靠性，但是后者还会增加公交积聚概率；而增加公交站点间距，将降低公交分担率，同时也将增加公交集聚的发生概率；随着乘车站数的增加，公交时间可靠性及分担率降低，特别是下游公交线路分担率降低更为显著.

Time Reliability Analysis of Multi-modal Transportation Networks

A bus arrival time iterative expression is established under assumption of stoachastic travel time and bus dwell time at stops, and then the time reliability calculation method is presented based on bus arrival time in a multi-mode transport network of car and bus. A multi-modal transportation network equilibrium model with time reliability and its solution algorithm are both proposed and applied to a multi-mode network and a bus route. The results show that bus lanes and higher bus frequency both could improve the time reliability of bus, bus split and time reliability of car, but the latter will also increase the probability of bus bunching; the higher spacing of bus stops will reduce the rate of bus split, but will increase probability of bus bunching; when more bus stations added to a bus route, bus time reliability and bus split will decrease, especially the bus split in the downstream bus routes decrease significantly.