基于ICLV 的托运人货运服务选择行为建模

忽略托运人的认知活动对其货运选择行为的影响，将会导致模型设定错误和参数估计的不一致性.为解决这个问题，考虑托运人的认知活动对其选择行为的影响，引入潜变量的概念.建立了基于ICLV的货运服务选择行为模型，给出相应的求解步骤，并以南昌市出口集装箱运输为例进行了实证分析.结果表明，反映托运人认知活动的潜变量对其货运服务选择行为有显著影响，基于ICLV的货运服务选择行为模型比传统的Logit 模型具有更好的拟合度和解释能力，因而可以更加准确地分析托运人的货运选择行为，并为改进运输服务、制定运输政策提供理论支持.

Modeling the Shippers' Choice Behavior in Freight Service Based on ICLV Model

Ignoring the effect of shippers'' cognitive activity on their choice behavior in freight service will cause incorrect model specification and inconsistent estimates. To address the issue, this paper introduces the concept of latent variable to reflect the effect of shipper''s cognitive activity on their choice behavior in freight service. Then, a behavioral model for shippers'' freight service choice based on integrated choice and latent variable（ICLV）model is established, and the corresponding solution steps are also illustrated. Finally, an empirical analysis is carried out for exported container transport from Nanchang city. The results show that the latent variable has a remarkable effect on shippers'' choice behavior in freight service, and the goodness-of-fit and explanatory ability of ICLV-based model are both better than the traditional Logit model. Therefore, the ICLV- based model can be used to analyze shippers'' choice behavior in freight service accurately, and to provide theoretical support for transport service improvement and transport policy making.