基于模糊综合评估法的工程项目风险管理研究

在工程项目的生命周期内,将遭遇大量的风险因素,这些风险性因素通常难以用准确的定量方法去描述,必需借助于和概率统计相关的一些数学工具才能完成.采用有效的方法对风险进行分析、度量,可以提高工程效益.在阐述项目风险固有因素的基础上,运用模糊综合评估方法来分析、度量项目的风险,从而为项目风险的分析和度量提供了定性和定量相结合的综合评价方法.通过对施工单位能力评价的实例演示,证明了该方法的科学性和可行性.

Research on Risk and Management of Engineering Project Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

In the life cycle of construction,many risk factors are confronted,which are difficult to describe in accurate quantitative methods.It must be completed with the probability statistics about mathematical instrument,which improve the project's benefit in effective methods to analyse and measure risk.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluating method,which combines the qualitative and quantitative determination,is applied to analyze and measure the risk based on describing the project risk.The example evaluating the ability of the unit in charge of construction proved that the method is scientific and feasible.