区域综合货运系统与经济发展互动模型

将系统动力学理论应用于区域综合货运系统与经济发展的相互影响定量分析中,通过分析货运供需系统因果关系,研究货运需求、货运缺口、经济发展、运输投资等系统影响因素之间的反馈环路。在此基础上建立系统流图,构建货运系统与区域经济互动关系系统动力学模型。通过仿真试验,分析了运输投资比例、产业结构等与货运生成总量及货运缺口之间的定量关系。结果表明,运输基础设施投资比例的提高,能有效改善货运供给能力的不足,使得货运缺口减小,促进经济的增长;第1、2产业对于货运生成总量的贡献较大,第3产业对货运生成总量的贡献较小。

A Model for Analying Interaction between Regional Comprehensive Transport System and Economic Development

The interaction between regional freight transport system and regional economic development was quantitatively analysed by using system dynamics theory.By analysing the causal relationship of freight transport supply and demand system,the feedback loop of systematic influence factors including freight demand,freight gap,egonomic development and transport investment was discussed.The system flow diagram was given,and the system dynamics model for the relation between regional freight transport system and regional economic development was developed accordingly.Then the relation of transport investment ratio,industrial structure with volume of freight transport and freight gap Was analyzed through simulation experiment.The result indicates that(1)the enhancement of investment radio of transport infrastructure can effectively improve freight transport supply to decrease freight gap and boost the economic development;(2)primary-industry and secondary-industry contribute more volumes of freight transport,and tertiary-industry contributes less.