我国综合交通系统的社会贡献评价研究——以2000-2017年数据为例

本文首先介绍了研究背景,提出研究目的。通过梳理国内外相关文献,提出现有研究尚未涉及综合交通系统社会贡献方面。在解析综合交通社会贡献机理基础上,根据我国2000—2017年社会系统和综合交通数据确定我国社会系统发展指数S和交通系统发展指数T的组成指标,在每种交通方式内采用因子分析法确定各指标权重,结合各指标数值得到S和T数值。应用格兰杰检验法证明T是S的原因,由S关于T的回归函数可得我国综合交通社会贡献评价函数,处理后得到最佳状态数值,发现实际数值与之相比仍有较大提升空间。最后,提出相关政策建议。

On the Social Contribution Evaluation of China Comprehensive Transportation System

This paper first introduces the research background and puts forward the research purpose.By combing the relevant literature,we found out the existing research gaps.On the basis of analyzing the mechanism of comprehensive transportation social contribution,according to the social system and comprehensive transportation data of our country from 2000 to 2017,we determine the composition index of our social system development index S and the transportation system development index T,and use factor analysis method to determine the weight of each index in each mode of transportation.The Granger test is used to prove that T is the reason of S.The regression function of T can get the evaluation function of China’s comprehensive traffic social contribution.After processing,the optimal state value is obtained,and it is found that the actual value still has a large improvement space compared with it.Finally,relevant policy recommendations are put forward.