Heuristic estimation of container stacking and reshuffling operations under the containership delay factor and mega-ship challenge

This paper addresses a highly researched area, the reshuffling problem in ports, using a new paradigm-modified containership service order in light of credit risk assessment. Container stacking and reshuffling operations can cause ship delays and additional risk. In deep-sea terminals, outbound containers are tightly stacked according to the retrieval sequence. Due to lack of space, terminals stack containers in multiple tiers. This means any delay in the arrival of a ship can impose extra handlings and reshuffling of containers delaying future cargo handling. This paper addresses the reshuffling problem with a concept similar to the credit scoring and rating of creditworthiness used in the banking industry. By utilizing this comparison to the banking credit risk concept, a heuristic estimation model is proposed that illustrates the side effects of unscheduled modifications in containership service order. Further, the mega-ship trend amplifies the reshuffling debate. Probability of delay, reshuffles given delay, and call size at delay are introduced as the three-point risk metrics of the model. Numerical simulations illustrate the functionality to develop terminal stacking strategies as well as emphasize the mega-ship phenomenon and its side effects on terminals (i.e. yard operation deadlock).