运输模式选择的计量分析与实证研究

选择何种内陆运输模式对区域经济发展和集约型社会的构建具有重要意义。文章出于循环经济与绿色交通的战略构想，从环境、经济、运输时间、便捷性、土地节约化利用、安全等方面对内河航运和公路运输进行综合比较分析，构建内陆运输模式选择的指标体系。引入模糊综合评价法对2种内陆运输模式进行综合评价，为内陆地区综合运输体系的构建提供参考。以江苏省南北向交通为例进行了实证分析，并对内河航运的发展提出相关建议。

Economitrics Analysis and Empirical Research on Choice of Transportation Mode

The choice of inland transportation mode is of great significance to the development of regional economy and the construction of intensive society.In this paper,based on the strategic conception of circular economy and green transportation,and from the perspective of environment,economy,travel time,convenience,economic use of the land and safety,the comparison between inland shipping and road transportation has been analyzed,and the index system of choosing inland transportation mode has been set up.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation assessment method is introduced in this paper to make overall evaluation on the two kinds of inland transportation modes,thus offering reference for the construction of inland comprehensive transportation system.Empirical research has been done on the south-north traffic in Jiangsu Province,and relative suggestions on the development of inland shipping have been given in the end.