| 基于有序聚类分析的高速公路路段长度划分研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 钟连德,陈永胜,孙小端,刘小明,贺玉龙.基于有序聚类分析的高速公路路段长度划分研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2008,32(1):43-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 钟连德 陈永胜 孙小端 刘小明 贺玉龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京工业大学北京市交通工程重点实验室,北京,100022 |
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| 基金项目： | 交通部科技项目资助(批准号:200431822333-01,200431822333-02)，北京市科学技术委员会博士生论文专项资助(批准号:ZZ0626) |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了基于F isher有序聚类分析的高速公路路段长度划分方法,以事故数沿每公里的空间分布为聚类指标进行路段长度划分,通过实例验证,一方面发现按照F isher有序聚类分析方法划分路段的结果能够使得分段后的事故频数很好地服从一定的概率分布,有益于模型的构建;另一方面,应用该方法分段能够很好地考虑事故的发生水平,把事故水平相近的邻近路段划分到同一研究样本内,有助于准确地量化影响因素的作用,在样本量不是特别大的情况下,能够突出两者之间的关系.
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| 关 键 词： | Fisher有序聚类分析 事故预测模型 泊松分布 负二项分布 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-08-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年8月15日 |
Research on Section Division of Freeway with Ordinal Clustering Method |
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| Zhong Liande,Chen Yongsheng,Sun Xiaoduan,Liu Xiaoming,He Yulong.Research on Section Division of Freeway with Ordinal Clustering Method[J].journal of wuhan university of technology(transportation science&engineering),2008,32(1):43-46. |
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| Authors: | Zhong Liande Chen Yongsheng Sun Xiaoduan Liu Xiaoming He Yulong |
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| Abstract: | Roadway section division is the first step to establish accident prediction model.Generally speaking,there are two methods in the roadway section division: One is fixed length method and the other is variable length method.In this paper a new method of freeway section division is proposed based on the ordinal clustering method,and the clustering index is the accident frequency per kilometer distributed along the roadway.By example analysis,it is discovered that accident frequency of each segment obtained by this method is obedient to certain probability distribution,which is beneficial for the establishment of model.This method is an innovative attempt and has good application value. |
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| Keywords: | Fisher clustering method Accident prediction model(APM) Poisson distribution Negative binomial distribution |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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