上海内河货运量的组合预测

内河航运是综合交通运输系统中不可缺少的运输方式,存在着很大的潜在优势.定量地把握未来内河运输的发展趋势,具有重大的现实意义.通过利用时间序列模型、logistic曲线与自回归模型等,对2010-2015年的上海内河货运量进行预测.在此基础上,对不同模型赋予不同的权重,建立了组合预测模型.研究表明:未来上海内河货运量将持续稳定地增长.为提高预测的精度,有必要综合地使用多个预测方法.

Combined Forecast for Shanghai Inland Water Freight Volume

Inland transport with huge potential advantage is an indispensable transport system in integrated traffic transport system. Knowing the trends of inland water transport development quantitatively has a great practical significance. The transport freight volume forecasts of inland waterway transportation of Shanghai from 2010 to 2015 are given first applying time series model, logistic curve and autoregressive model respectively of The final forecasts are calculated by combining above results with weights. The research shows that inland water freight volume of Shanghai will achieve a stable growth in future, It is necessary to combine different forecast methods to enhance the accuracy of forecasts.