| 基于贝叶斯网络的港口生产安全评价方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑恒,徐连胜,韦健.基于贝叶斯网络的港口生产安全评价方法[J].水运工程,2007(4):23-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑恒 徐连胜 韦健 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京,100081
2. 交通部水运科学研究院,北京,100088 |
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| 摘 要： | 将基于贝叶斯网络的概率安全评价方法引入港口生产作业安全评价中,提出了将故障树分析法转换为贝叶斯网络的步骤,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的安全评价模型。通过在贝叶斯网络模型上进行推理求解,进行前向的风险预测和后向的诊断分析。最后通过对码头前沿机损的安全评价实例说明该评价方法的合理性和有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 贝叶斯网络 故障树分析 港口生产系统 概率安全评价 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-4972（2007）04-0023-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-11-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年11月23 |
A Bayesian Network for Safety Assessment in Harbor Production Systems |
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| ZHENG Heng,XU Lian-sheng,WEI Jian.A Bayesian Network for Safety Assessment in Harbor Production Systems[J].Port & Waterway Engineering,2007(4):23-27. |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Heng XU Lian-sheng WEI Jian |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; 2. Waterborne Transportation Institute, Beijing 100088, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,we introduce a Bayesian networks(BN) approach for probability safety assessment in harbor production systems.Then,we present a method for transforming Fault Tree Analysis(FTA) to Bayesian networks and build a safety assessment model based on Bayesian networks.BN can perform the forward risk prediction and backward diagnosis analysis by reasoning on the model.Finally,we provide an example on safety assessment for machinery breakdown in dock apron to illustrate the rationality and validity of BN approach. |
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| Keywords: | Bayesian networks fault tree analysis harbor production systems probability safety assessment |
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