道路客运的湖南启示录

近年来,"客运末日"论一直压迫着业内人士的神经。不管论调真伪,道路客运面临的挑战却是有目共睹:一方面,产业迁徙和调整改写老百姓出行习惯,另一方面,航空和高铁迅速发展带来强劲的挤压效应。未来道路客运企业该如何突围?湖南是我国中部大省,"十一五"以来,其道路运输大幅增长,总量规模居全国前列。"十一五"末营业性公路客运量、旅客周转量分别为"十一五"初的1.35倍、1.42倍,期间共完成站     

济宁道路客运转型升级实践探索

正面对新形势和新挑战,济宁市以强化顶层设计、强化政策支持、强化惠民利企、强化动能转换为总抓手,改革创新推动道路客运行业转型发展。近年来,综合交通运输已进入深度调整期,互联网的迅猛发展以及高铁、民航、私家车等运输方式的相互渗透,都对道路客运形成了较大冲击和影响,道路客     

杭州到温州“门到门”运输服务——探索新形势下道路客运服务新模式

形势——不容乐观的道路客运市场 随着铁路客运迅猛扩张，在新一轮公铁竞争加剧的形势下，笔者所在地区的杭甬、杭宁高铁及杭州火车东站综合枢纽2013年同时投入运营，给浙江省道路运输龙头企业——杭州长运运输集团有限公司的杭州-宁波、杭州-温州、杭州-南京及沿线客运班线带来了巨大冲击。加之民航运输平民化、公交一体化及私家车猛增造成客源分流，非法营运临时上客点、黄牛拉客、非法长途汽车售票点的大量存在，也使道路客运企业客运班线生存受到严重影响。     

小件快递一时还难成气候

随着经济的飞速发展,运输市场的进一步开放,民航灵活的运价政策和迅猛发展的高铁运输,使得公路客运面临的挑战越来越多,行业竞争压力越来越大。在重重困难之下,如何应对挑战,确保生存,并谋求新的经济增长点,成了当前公路客运企业迫切需要解决的问题。     

从站场到“枢纽”

道路客运企业的微利状态正在往更艰难的方向发展,无论是高铁突进的心理挤压,还是与民航便捷服务距离的渐行渐远,作为综合运输体系中市场份额最大、运营主体最复杂、服务人群最广泛的道路客运,生存和发展形势空前严峻。于是很多人把目光投向了道路运输的场站,这个后房产暴利时代属于行业的最后一块鸡肋。     

基于财务平衡的道路客运班线优化模型

随着我国高铁网络的日趋完善，高速铁路以快速、舒适、准时等特点吸引更多旅客，对传统道路客运产生了巨大冲击，大批的道路客运班线面临停线停班的困境，未来道路客运班线审批和设置将更加严格和谨慎，道路客运班线如何优化调整需要科学的模型进行指导。本研究以苏北地区的铁路和道路客运的数据为基础，构建高铁对道路客运影响预测模型，结合企业财务平衡提出道路客运班线优化模型。模型结果显示道路客运班次及人员都将大幅下降，现有的经营模式将难以为继，道路客运企业应当找准高铁开通后自身新的功能定位和发展模式，避免与高铁产生无效竞争。本研究为高铁开通后道路客运班线优化调整提供了理论模型支撑。     

道路客运的湖南启示录

近年来，“客运末日”论一直压迫着业内人士的神经。不管论调真伪，道路客运面临的挑战却是有目共睹：一方面，产业迁徙和调整改写老百姓出行习惯，另一方面，航空和高铁迅速发展带来强劲的挤压效应。未来道路客运企业该如何突围？     

深化改革 道路客运将迈入“实名制”时代

正"新修改的《道路旅客运输及客运站管理规定》已然照进现实,又将给道路客运行业带来哪些改变呢?"高铁的爆发式发展,民航的大众化发展,私家车的井喷式发展,给现有的道路客运带来了严重的冲击,道路旅客数量将持续下降,道路客运企业只有积极面对,探索符合自身特点的发展战略来实现转型升级。     

从站场到“枢纽”

道路客运企业的微利状态正在往更艰难的方向发展，无论是高铁突进的心理挤压，还是与民航便捷服务距离的渐行渐远，作为综合运输体系中市场份额最大、运营主体最复杂、服务人群最广泛的道路客运，生存和发展形势空前严峻。 于是很多人把目光投向了道路运输的场站，这个后房产暴利时代属于行业的最后一块鸡肋。     

不同类型道路客运站选址刍议

道路旅客运输是人民群众最普遍的出行方式，虽然高铁的开通和免收节假日通行费等政策的施行对道路客运有着不小的冲击，但是营业性道路旅客运输量仍高于其它各种（铁路、民航、水运）运输方式所产生的运输量。道路客运站作为道路客运的载体，成为建立衔接顺畅、优势互补的现代综合运输体系的重要节点，为道路旅客运输经营业户提供了综合性、     

High-Speed Rail Operations on an Existing Network: An Assessment Model for China

High-speed rail operations have the potential to reduce the long-term decline in rail passenger travel demand for the medium to long distance inter-urban markets. Such decline has been evident through most of the industrialized countries where air and road transport tend to be the dominant modes. In China, the operations of long distance high-speed rail on fully dedicated track is not very easy to implement, due to the high proportion of passengers who travel between high-speed and conventional railways. An alternative approach would be to allow for mixed operations with trains of various speeds on the same track. This article puts forward a simulation model designed to allow an evaluation of the most efficient distance for high-speed rail operations under mixed train speed scenarios. The model takes into account the main operating parameters such as passenger volumes, train speeds, capital and maintenance costs, train operating costs and energy consumption. The distance of high-speed train running on conventional rail that will yield the most economic benefit can be estimated using the model. The article includes the results of using the model for a specific example. It is concluded that large-scale high-speed trains have the potential to be successfully operated on conventional rail networks.     

铁路运输企业视角下的公、铁运输企业短期博弈分析

在"一带一路"战略背景下,铁路物流中心的公铁联运业务至关重要。公铁联运业务各主体的协同存在易变性,资源双方是否信任会影响各自的策略选择。本文以铁路运输企业为主导,铁路运输企业接到客户公铁联运订单时会借助平台发布公路运输需求信息,公路运输企业根据自身情况向铁路运输企业表达意愿,最后铁路运输企业根据其采取的策略找到自身是否接受合作的均衡条件。本文通过对公、铁运输企业的短期博弈分析,找到双方合作的均衡条件,为双方利益分配奠定基础。     

高铁枢纽建设与城市功能空间协同发展效率评价

随着我国高铁迅速发展,高铁建设如何与城市功能空间协同发展的问题引起广泛关注。为了评价高铁与城市协同发展的效率,本文从城市协同性、高铁枢纽建设、站城距离等角度,构建高铁枢纽建设与城市功能空间协同发展效率评价指标体系。并引入DEA模型进行分析计算其效率匹配度,为城市既有高铁站与城市协同发展程度提供依据。最后以京沪高铁为案例分析了24个车站与所在城市的协同关系效率值,结果表明,北京南站、上海虹桥站等高铁枢纽发展较好,常州北站、苏州北站、天津南站等较差,尤其是天津南站的通过能力、客流量等产出指标还需要进一步加强。     

高铁运输对广西港口物流的促进作用探析

随着湘桂高铁、贵广高铁、南广高铁、云桂高铁的建成,广西逐步进入高铁时代。广西高铁的发展给广西北部湾港口群带来了新的生机,高铁与港口货物联运是未来广西北部湾港口物流发展的新趋势。文章分析了广西港口与高铁联运的有利条件以及高铁运输对港口物流的促进作用,从技术标准缺乏、货物分运混乱、物流成本偏高等方面阐述了港口与高铁联运存在的现实问题,并提出了相应对策。     

New routes on old railways: increasing rail’s mode share within the constraints of the existing railway network

This paper describes an integrated methodology for identifying potential ‘quick wins’ for mode shift from road to passenger rail transport. Firstly, a procedure for analysing rail’s relative competitiveness in the market for passenger transport between large urban areas is developed and then applied to a UK case study. The purpose of such analysis is to allow the identification of flows where rail is currently relatively uncompetitive (in terms of journey time in particular) and to assess the reasons for this poor performance, so that the issues which suppress rail use may be addressed. In parallel, a framework, methodology and tool for the assessment of existing and potential capacity (trains, seats, TEUs, etc.) is developed for both passenger and freight traffic, to identify and address network constraints. An illustrative example of the use of these demand and capacity assessment tools is then presented, with the tools used to identify and evaluate flows where rail demand is suppressed by poor service quality and where spare capacity exists which would allow the passenger rail service to be improved without requiring significant investments in infrastructure. The effects of such improvements on demand are predicted, and the cost implications of operating such additional services are discussed. The analysis suggests that there may be significant potential for increasing rail’s mode share by providing additional inter-urban services where rail currently offers an inferior service.     

The future relations between air and rail transport in an island country

This paper proposes a bi-level passenger transport market model taking into account competition between air and high-speed rail (HSR) in a domestic market. The paper discusses the characteristics of the relationship between market share and connectivity in domestic and international markets. The result suggests that because of the dominance of HSR in the domestic market, when connectivity between air and HSR is good, international passenger’s welfare can be improved. Finally, when considering profitability of the players, there is an incentive for airlines to cooperate with HSR, but there is no incentive for HSR to cooperate with airlines.     

Long-term impact of the Shinkansen on rail and air demand: analysis with data from Northeast Japan

This paper analyses how the high-speed rail construction in Northeast Japan (Tohoku) has affected total demand and interregional travel patterns. We use annual interregional passenger data from 1989 to 2012 and apply regression analysis with the demand between Tokyo and the Tohoku prefectures as the dependent variable. We distinguish particularly between the ‘Full-’ and the ‘Mini-’ Shinkansen, where the latter are branch services running with reduced speed. We find that the ‘Full-Shinkansen’ quickly increases rail and total public transport trips and generates additional rail demand year on year. The ‘Mini-Shinkansen’ impacts are less pronounced. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the Shinkansen has shifted some demand from air to rail once it started operation and increased rail share gradually. We therefore suggest that predictions of demand impacts should carefully distinguish immediate from gradual impacts. We also discuss differences in regional demand in that not all prefectures have gained equally from Shinkansen construction.     

农村道路客运发展研究

文章基于当前农村道路客运发展实际,分析了影响农村客运发展的主要因素,并从加大投入、抓好规划和建设、规范管理、建立完善的机制、加强安全监管等方面提出了促进农村道路客运持续健康发展的对策。     

基于客户满意度的货运动车组开行方案研究

高铁货运逐渐兴起,本文对货运动车组开行方案优化进行了研究。针对高铁运输安全、快捷、运输成本较低等特性,提出以货运动车组及客货混编动车组为主,客运动车组捎带运输为补充的开行模式,结合运输需求、线路通过能力等限条件,以运输成本最小和货主满意度最大为目标,建立多目标综合优化模型,运用线性加权组合法,以lingo软件为依托进行求解。通过算例给出具体开行方案,并对同一运输区间各种运输方式的单位成本及用时进行对比分析。结果表明,相对于传统运输方式,高铁货运综合运输成本较低,用时更短,能够兼顾运输企业与货主的双重要求;所建模型优化效果明显,可为未来货运动车组的开行提供参考。     

A model to design a national high-speed rail network for freight distribution

High-speed rail is often touted as a means to reduce congestion on the United States’ highways by removing passenger car traffic. But highway congestion can also be reduced by reducing the amount of freight traffic. So, given the advances in high-speed rail, the potential exists for developing a national high-speed network for freight distribution. To design such a network considering highway traffic and transit times, we present an uncapacitated network design model with a post-processing step for the capacity constraint. To illustrate how our modeling approach could be used by policy makers to evaluate the impacts of a high-speed rail network, we apply our models with preliminary data on high-speed rail operating parameters for freight applications and from current data on shipments from a major truckload carrier and the US Census Bureau.