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寻找一种科学实用的船舶操纵性能综合评价方法一直是船舶研究者、设计者和使用者所追求的目标之一.应用模糊综合评估理论,建立了船舶操纵性能综合评估模型,通过对多条船舶的操纵性能所进行的计算分析表明,应用该模型可以得到符合实际的结论. 相似文献
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为加强罗源湾附近水域船舶的航行安全,通过IMO船舶定线制考虑的因素及罗源湾附近水域特点,确定了影响该水域船舶定线制通航安全的多种因素,从一致性、合理性、警戒区必要性以及自然条件4个方面建立该水域船舶定线制方案的评价体系,利用AHP的赋权方式确定指标权重,通过物元理论评价模型,对4组船舶定线制规划设计方案进行安全性评价,为完善船舶定线制,提高水域的综合利用提供建议和参考.研究表明:该方法能高效地处理评价船舶定线制多个定性、定量指标所引起的矛盾和不确定性的问题,使评判结果更加合理.同时,也可为其他水域的船舶定线制评价提供指导. 相似文献
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The seaborne oil transportation market is served by two main types of vessels—crude oil tankers and product tankers. Product tankers are designed to move refined oil products, yet they can also opportunistically carry ‘dirty’ products such as crude and heavy fuel oil, subject to the cost of tank cleaning when re-entering the clean products trade. We apply an entry-exit real option model with a stochastic freight rate differential to derive optimal triggers for switching between the two cargo types and estimate the value of the switching option. We show that the value of active switching has grown over time, and generally exceeds the additional construction cost of a product tanker. Our findings are important both from a practical point of view and for our understanding of market integration in the tanker freight market. Specifically, shipowners can use our model as a basis for optimizing chartering policy for clean product tankers. We also show that there are periods where the dirty market is persistently stronger, and discuss the possible reasons for such apparent inefficiencies. 相似文献
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航运业是一个具有特殊风险的行业,然而传统的船舶投资决策却总是忽略不确定性对投资价值的影响。将实物期权运用到航运企业船舶投资决策中,运用布莱克-舒尔斯的期权定价公式,得出含有实物期权的投资价值和一般的投资价值,定量地分析了不确定性对投资价值的影响,使船舶投资价值与决策相一致,最终使航运企业获得最大的投资收益。 相似文献
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文章根据船东提供的关于该船柴油机转速频繁波动的故障现象及随机资料,对在分析产生故障的原因和采取的处理方案、达到排除故障的结果等方面进行了论述。 相似文献
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This paper uses a real option approach to analyze terminal investment timing decisions for situations in which a port faces competition from its rivals in an uncertain market. We propose a network model to describe carriers’ cargo routing decisions and competition among rival ports. We then transform this model into a multicommodity flow problem and use the column generation algorithm to solve it. After obtaining a port’s possible future annual revenues and the potential net present value (NPV) for its terminal construction project through the network model, we adopt the expanded NPV rule and transform the investment timing decision into an optimal stopping problem. A least squares Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is proposed to find the investing probabilities for future years. The proposed models are applied to a steel cargo terminal investment case in the Port of Bengbu in Anhui province of China. The impacts on the investing probability and the expanded NPV of changes in the demand volatility, the initial investment and the port discharging rate are analyzed to provide managerial insights for port managers. 相似文献
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从国际航运的投资特点出发,通过实物期权方法与现行方法的比较,分析了国际航运投资决策应用实物期权方法的必要性与可行性,初步提出了国际航运投资项目存在的八种灵活性及其相应的实物期权。 相似文献
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结合哈大铁路客运专线DK651+972涵洞施工的实例,论述了根据实际水文地质条件确定降水方案,对以往经验参数进行修改,以达到降水目的及确保工程顺利进行。 相似文献
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洋山港疏浚土资源化利用探讨 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
位于杭州湾湾口北侧、上海市东南方的崎岖列岛,由数十个小岛组成,是离上海市最近的拥有深水岸线的岛屿群。依托于崎岖列岛建设的洋山港,是一个通过(东海)大桥连接于大陆的典型离岸海港,由于毗邻多水多沙的长江口且当地潮汐强度大,港内水体以含沙量高、流速大为主要特点,因而预期营运后港口存在大量维护性疏浚土需处理的问题。文章结合港口平面形态、疏浚部位与强度和可持续发展的要求,拟从适宜的维护疏浚方式、泥土处理的环保要求以及港内适宜布置泥土处理的条件等方面,提出洋山港疏浚土资源化利用方案。 相似文献
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Military ocean patrol vessels (OPVs) are today an increasingly common type of naval ship. To facilitate the wide range of tasks with small crews, OPVs represent several ship design compromises between, for example, survivability, redundancy and technical endurance, and some of these compromises are new to military ships.The aim of this study is to examine how the design risk control-options in relation to survivability, redundancy and technical endurance can be linked to the operational risk in a patrol and surveillance scenario. The ship operation for a generic OPV, including the actions of the threat, is modelled with a Bayesian network describing the scenario and the dependency among different influences.The scenario is described with expert data collected from subject matter experts. The approach includes an analysis of uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and numerical derivative analysis.The results show that it is possible to link the performance of specific ship design features to the operational risk. Being able to propagate the epistemic uncertainties through the model is important to understand how the uncertainty in the input affects the output and the output uncertainty for the studied case is small relative to the input uncertainty. The study shows that linking different ship design features for aspects such as survivability, redundancy and technical endurance to the operational risk gives important information for the ship design decision-making process. 相似文献
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As the dry bulk shipping market seems to have been stuck in a trough period for a long time, investors need to pay more attention to their investment strategies to survive during this period. This study aimed to find a suitable model to assess dry bulk ship investment decisions in the tough and peak periods based on real options theories. Two options, involving an abandonment option and a deferrable option, were used to define investors’ responses to the uncertainty in investment processes such as stopping or selling vessels. The option valuation was solved by using a binomial valuation model, due to data limitations. In accordance with shipping cycle theories, different volatility parameters for the tough and peak periods were calculated using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The application of the real options model to a case study involving secondhand ship trading indicated its viability. According to the results of the case study, the new model has advantages over the traditional net present value (NPV) method in uncertain investment environments. Thus, the results demonstrate that the real options model is a more suitable method for use in the current dry bulk shipping market. 相似文献
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必要费率是港口工程多方案项目经济比选方法之一。本文通过经济船型论证,介绍了必要运费率的计算过程,进而计算出综合必要费率并进行方案经济比选,从经济角度方面推荐合理的建设方案。 相似文献