基于AHP和模糊评价法的C^3I系统效能评估

为定量评估C^3I系统的效能,建立了C^3I系统效能的指标体系,并对其中较为重要的指标进行了分析。运用层次分析法（AHP）确定C^3I系统效能评价体系中各指标的权重,使用模糊综合评价法对各模糊指标进行评价,评价结果表明该方法能够比较科学合理地对C^3I系统效能进行评估,从而为评估C^3I系统效能提供了一种论证方法。     

C3I系统互连互通技术研究

C^3I系统的互连互通问题是目前军事系统工程与应用领域的热点问题。论述了C^3I系统互连互通的必要性，从OSI／RM互连参考模型出发，讨论了C^3I系统的互连互通环境及实现互连互通的基本技术。     

海战场环境下的C3I系统测试评估方法研究

在一套C^31系统指控系统的研制，开发和维护过程中C^3I系统测试起着至关重要的作用：从C^3I系统测试结果的可信性来说，实兵演习、实装试验无疑具有最高的可信性，但从工程实现的角度来看，实兵实装试验需要动员大量的人力物力，并且某些特定情况下，大批次、密集目标的试验不可能使用实装完成。因此，研究一种以仿真与实兵试验相结合的科学可行的试验与测试方法；研究应用仿真代理的技术解决无线分布式条件下C^3I系统试验分析数据的收集问题；研究C3I系统评测可测性指标的建立，以及测试方法的研究；为复杂大系统试验、测试和评估提供殚诊专持和测试方法．     

舰艇作战指挥决策建模研究

从舰艇海上作战指挥的角度,首先分析了基于C^3I系统的作战指挥决策的信息流程,然后用结构化分析与建模方法,依次建立了作战指挥决策三类要素的模型：作战任务的布告板模型,决策目标树中子目标之间的关系与目标实现度模型;作战态势的状态模型与动力学演化模型;作战方案与协同动作计划的框架法模型、作战命令表描述模型。     

哥白尼C^4I体系信息流分析

简要介绍哥白尼C^4I体系支柱系统功能及信息源，阐述哥白尼体系中的数据分层和数据格式，通过岸上和海上两个部分分析了哥白尼体系的信息流程。     

基于串并联模型框架的舰载C3I系统作战效能分析

在诸多作战效能评估的方法中,串并联这一概念和思想有其独特的方法论意义与价值,通过对研究的问题给出指标的评价树,自底向上分层建模,可极大地提高构模速度,减轻构模难度.本文首先明确了串并联模型框架,而后分析了串并联模型框架的应用条件和适用范围,最后应用串并联模型框架对舰载C^3I系统的作战效能进行评估.     

舰载C^3I系统战损快速评估决策支持系统框架设计

根据决策支持系统的基本设计原理,提出了舰载C^3I系统战损快速评估决策支持系统的设计方案,并对于设计原则、总体结构以及功能模块进行了详细的论述。根据系统功能特点和舰载C^3I系统实际,从设计开发的要求入手,对系统的数据库系统进行了设计,并提出了具体的设计要求。     

一种目标综合识别能力评估方法

目标综合识别能力是C^3I系统重要指标之一。运用统计估计的基本原理和方法，分析用测试样本集估计识别正确率的可行性以及相应的估计性能，定义目标综合识别能力指标，并给出目标综合识别能力的实验室测试评估方法。可为C^3I系统目标综合识别能力测试提供参考。     

面向防御的舰载威胁判断模型

为满足水面舰艇海上防御作战行动的需求,采用离线建立规则库与在线战术计算相结合、定性分析与定量计算相结合的方法,在综合分析来袭目标的威胁程度与我舰防御的紧迫程度两方面因素后,建立了基于规则的威胁判断模型。在舰载C^3I系统中,该模型可判定来袭目标的威胁等级,并进行分类威胁排序。     

增强型数字签名技术在C3I系统中的应用

在C^3I系统中，多舰协同或编队联合作战时的通信信道一般是无线信道，保密机制一般借助专用密码机对报文信息进行加解密处理。这种机制增加了报文收发时的处理环节，增加了时延，降低了信息的时效性。另外，接收方如何鉴别已收报文的真伪及完整性，目前均还未考虑。通过探讨数字签名技术在C^3I系统中的应用问题，提出增强型数字签名模型。该模型在普通数字签名模型的基础上，引入加密机制加强了对消息原文的加密处理，并仅对报文摘要进行签名，提高了信道利用率。该模型可较好地解决C^3I系统中信息传输过程中的安全和报文鉴别问题，而且实用性更强。     

STI-VC2100主动力装置实船训练系统实时性探讨

主动力装置实船训练系统是指嵌入在主动力装置监控系统中的机电人员训练模拟系统，它结合了陆上轮机模拟器培训和海上航行训练的优点，具有实施容易，效率高和费用低的特点，能帮助船员迅速获得必要的操作技能和知识。现从嵌入式实船训练系统的组成原理出发，指出了实船训练系统的3个要素——“实时”、“准确”、“柔性”，并从信号流的角度，分析了几个影响训练系统真实性的问题，提出了解决训练系统实时性的方法。     

基于AQWA的半潜式平台动力特性分析

依据三维势流理论并利用ANSYS AQWA软件对某半潜式平台进行建模。分析平台在恶劣海况下的水动力性能,并运用时域耦合的分析方法的得到了平台运动的时历曲线,同时对平台系泊锚链的系泊强度进行了校核计算。结果证明平台在恶劣海况下可安全有效的工作,本文的工作对于半潜式平台的相关设计有一定的参考意义。     

Numerical determination of flushing time for stratified water bodies

It is often advantageous to model a semi-enclosed estuarine or coastal embayment (e.g. fish farms or tidal inlets, or typhoon shelters) as a separate system within a larger water body connected to the outer sea. The water quality of the system depends crucially on its flushing time—the average time of a particle in the system. The flushing time is governed by the barotropic and baroclinic tidal exchanges between the system and the outer sea. We describe herein a general method to determine systematically the flushing time of a stratified water body via a numerical tracer experiment. Numerical solution of the 3D flow and mass transport equations for many practical problems show that the tracer mass removal process depends on the physical topography and bathymetry, tidal range and the degree of stratification in the outer sea. Field application suggests that the tracer mass variation can be well approximated by a double-exponential decay curve that can be described by three flushing coefficients. Using a simple analytical two-segment model, the flushing coefficients can be given a clear physical interpretation, and the flushing time can be easily determined in terms of the coefficients. The method is illustrated by application to a number of tidal inlets in Hong Kong, in both the dry and wet season. The connection between the numerically determined flushing time and the traditional bulk flushing time obtained from salt-balance methods is established.     

大深度载人潜水器钛合金框架试验研究

对大深度载人潜水器来说,框架是潜水器的设备载体,不仅要保证框架在各种使用工况下其强度满足要求,而且还要保证框架具有合理的刚度,保证设备、电缆液压管路的正常使用.对框架进行试验验收是检验框架安全性最为重要的环节.由于框架是空间结构,布置的大大小小上百个设备都作用在框架上,在试验过程中对这些设备进行完全载荷模拟和框架变形的测量相当困难.在此之前,我国还没有进行过类似大深度载人潜水器钛合金框架试验.本文的主要目的是介绍和总结这次框架试验.本文所涉及的内容包括载荷的模拟方法,应力、变形的测量方法、试验中可能出现的安全问题及其解决办法,试验岗位的配置,试验的后处理任务等等.同时,本文将试验结果与理论分析进行了比较,对大深度载人潜水器框架结构的安全评估等内容进行了探讨,可供以后的类似试验作为参考依据.     

基于多Agent的编队对潜作战智能辅助决策系统研究

传统作战辅助决策系统很难满足现代海战的需要,基于多Agent的智能辅助决策系统是辅助决策系统新的发展方向。根据水面舰艇编队对潜作战特点,构建了基于多Agent的对潜作战智能辅助决策系统框架,分析了系统中各模块的功能,重点研究了基于案例推理的Agent推理技术在辅助决策系统中的应用。提出的智能辅助决策系统满足了现代海战对辅助决策系统的要求,具有一定的军事实用价值。     

基于余水位的潮位实时推算系统

为了有效控制附近海域潮位,保证通航安全和合理有效地利用水深资源,详述了余水位的基本原理和潮汐差分方法,提出了基于此理论的验潮方案和潮位推算算法,并开发了一个潮位实时推算系统.系统采用多线程、串口通信等技术,与GPS接收机、潮位遥报仪、电脑主机等硬件进行实时通讯,获取定位信息和遥报潮位等数据,利用差分潮位推算施工船舶所在...     

动态交通流诱导模型在交通出行服务中的应用研究

本文从浙江交通智能交通建设应用需求出发,分析了动态交通流诱导模型在浙江交通出行服务中的实际应用,提出了浙江交通高速公路、内河航道实时交通状况分析的方案。该方案包括了基于多个Agent诱导代理系统的诱导模型,交通流诱导系统框架等自主技术研究成果。同时,本文给出了在浙江交通出行服务实际应用中,结合GPS定位技术、GIS地理信息技术、GSM/CDMA无线通信技术,实现了浙江交通高速公路、内河航道实时交通状况的分析和播报的应用场景。     

A study on time constraints and task deviations at sea leading to accidents – a cultural-historical perspective

The high frequency of maritime accidents and incidents occurring at sea has been a major challenge for the maritime industry in the last decades. The majority of these accidents are attributed to seafarers’ poor performance. This, despite the fact that the international maritime domain continues to adopt and update conventions regulating maritime safety to mitigate these accidents from occurring. In this paper, utilising a qualitative research approach, we show through a socio-cultural contextual perspective that time constraints as a major influencing factor in causing task deviations at sea which leads to dangerous situations. We analyse how some of the present barriers in place to prevent accidents at sea are in effect prompt seafarers who are working under time pressure to deviate from their task. Moreover, the paper discusses the social constituents such as job insecurity and the seafarers’ viewpoint towards the ship operators’ commitment to safe ship operations are crucial in motivating seafarers’ deviating from the task at hand when faced with time pressure.     

Onboard tuning of vessel seakeeping model parameters and sea state characteristics

It is essential for a safe and cost-efficient marine operation to improve the knowledge about the real-time onboard vessel conditions. This paper proposes a novel algorithm for simultaneous tuning of important vessel seakeeping model parameters and sea state characteristics based on onboard vessel motion measurements and available wave data. The proposed algorithm is fundamentally based on the unscented transformation and inspired by the scaled unscented Kalman filter, which is very computationally efficient for large dimensional and nonlinear problems. The algorithm is demonstrated by case studies based on numerical simulations, considering realistic sensor noises and wave data uncertainties. Both long-crested and short-crested wave conditions are considered in the case studies. The system state of the proposed tuning framework consists of a vessel state vector and a sea state vector. The tuning results reasonably approach the true values of the considered uncertain vessel parameters and sea state characteristics, with reduced uncertainties. The quantification of the system state uncertainties helps to close a critical gap towards achieving reliability-based marine operations.     

Accommodating perceptual conditioning in the valuation of expected travel time savings for cars and public transport

Travel time variability (i.e., random variations in travel time) leads to a travel time distribution for a repeated trip from a fixed origin to destination (e.g., from home to work). To represent travel time variability, a series of possible travel times per alternative (departure time, route or mode) are often used in stated choice experiments. In the traditional models, the probabilities associated with different travel scenarios (e.g., arriving early, on time and late) shown in the experiments are directly used as weights. However, evidence from psychology suggests that the shown probabilities may be transformed (underweighted or overweighted) by respondents. To account for this transformation of probabilities, this study incorporates perceptual conditioning through a non-linear probability weighting function into a utility maximisation framework, within which the empirical estimate of the value of expected travel time savings is estimated. The key advantage of this framework is that the estimated willingness to pay value can be directly linked to the source of utility (i.e., the probability distribution of travel time), while taking into account the perceptual transformation of probabilities.