Bus travel time modelling using GPS probe and smart card data: A probabilistic approach considering link travel time and station dwell time

Abstract

Path travel time estimation for buses is critical to public transit operation and passenger information system. State-of-the-art methods for estimating path travel time are usually focused on single vehicle with a limited number of road segments, thereby neglecting the interaction among multiple buses, boarding behavior, and traffic flow. This study models path travel time for buses considering link travel time and station dwell time. First, we fit link travel time to shifted lognormal distributions as in previous studies. Then, we propose a probabilistic model to capture interactions among buses in the bus bay as a first-in-first-out queue, with every bus sharing the same set of behaviors: queuing to enter the bus bay, loading/unloading passengers, and merging into traffic flow on the main road. Finally, path travel time distribution is estimated by statistically summarizing link travel time distributions and station dwell time distributions. The path travel time of a bus line in Hangzhou is analyzed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Results show that the model-based estimated path travel time distribution resembles the observed distribution well. Based on the calculation of path travel time, link travel time reliability is identified as the main factor affecting path travel time reliability.     

Estimation of delay variability at signalized intersections for urban arterial performance evaluation

Urban arterial performance evaluation has been broadly studied, with the major focus on average travel time estimation. However, in view of the stochastic nature of interrupted flow, the ability to capture the characteristics of travel time variability has become a critical step in determining arterial level of service (LOS). This article first presents a stochastic approach that integrates classic cumulative curves and probability theories in order to investigate delay variability at signalized intersections, as a dominant part of the link travel time variability. This serves as a basis for arterial travel time estimation, which can be obtained through a convolution of individual link travel time distributions. The proposed approach is then applied in the estimation of travel time along one arterial in Shanghai, China, with abundant automatic vehicle identification (AVI) data sources. The travel time variability is evaluated thoroughly at 30-min intervals, with promising results achieved in comparison to the field measurements. In addition, the estimated travel time distributions are utilized to illustrate the probability of multiple LOS ranges, namely, reliability LOS. The results provide insights into how we might achieve a more reliable and informative understanding of arterial performance.     

拓宽的左转车道长度对延误影响的仿真分析

以提高拓宽进口道车辆的运行效率,减少进口道延误为目标,分析了交叉口进口道拓宽段车辆的运行特性,并运用Vissim仿真软件对不同长度的拓宽段进行仿真分析。交叉口进口道左转拓宽段的长度不仅与左转车量的排队长度有关,而且与其相邻车道的排队长度有关;根据仿真结果得出了拓宽左转车道长度与进口道延误之间的关系。     

基于蒙特卡罗模拟方法的快速路运行时间可靠度研究

运行时间可靠度作为一个非常重要的概率测度参数能有效地评价交通网络的动态特性。在对运行时间可靠度的概念界定的基础上，分析了快速路运行时间可靠度的影响因素。提出了运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法计算运行时间可靠度，即采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法随机的对快速路入口的交通需求变量进行抽样，根据得到的样本值确定路径出行时间，然后对此出行时间进行检查，如果超过了规定的阚值，则认为不可靠，否则可靠。并通过一个算例对该模型进行了验证。最后指出了运行时间可靠度这一概率参数的应用前景。     

Urban travel time reliability at different traffic conditions

The decision making of travelers for route choice and departure time choice depends on the expected travel time and its reliability. A common understanding of reliability is that it is related to several statistical properties of the travel time distribution, especially to the standard deviation of the travel time and also to the skewness. For an important corridor in Changsha (P.R. China) the travel time reliability has been evaluated and a linear model is proposed for the relationship between travel time, standard deviation, skewness, and some other traffic characteristics. Statistical analysis is done for both simulation data from a delay distribution model and for real life data from automated number plate recognition (ANPR) cameras. ANPR data give unbiased travel time data, which is more representative than probe vehicles. The relationship between the mean travel time and its standard deviation is verified with an analytical model for travel time distributions as well as with the ANPR travel times. Average travel time and the standard deviation are linearly correlated for single links as well as corridors. Other influence factors are related to skewness and travel time standard deviations, such as vehicle density and degree of saturation. Skewness appears to be less well to explain from traffic characteristics than the standard deviation is.     

一种新式的交叉口左转待行区信号控制方法

针对信号交叉口许可相位运行期间直行车与左转车交通冲突严重、通行效率低下的问题，提出一种针对许可相位的新式左转待转区设计方法，设计该组织模式下的信号相位方案并分析了设置左转待转区前后的交通冲突情况。建立新式左转待转区设置后的延误模型，以车均延误最小为优化目标，建立改进后交叉口信号控制参数优化模型，并给出求解算法。以哈尔滨市融江路-群力第六大道交叉口为例，VISSIM仿真表明：尽管提出的方法对次要道路中左转车的延误和停车率不利，但总的车均延误在下降，特别是主路相位延误下降更明显，说明所提方法可行、有效。进一步分析交通流量规模、左转车比例和左转待转区容量等因素对设置左转待转区前后次要道路车均延误的影响，结果表明：当每方向左转待转区容量固定不变时，红灯期间到达的左转车辆数越多，所提方法适用的次要道路交通流量临界点越高，且随着次要道路交通流量的增加，所提方法适用的临界左转比例在下降；在相同交通条件下，每个方向左转待转区容量越大，车均延误就越小，说明每个方向左转待转区容量越大，所提方法的效果越明显。该方法有助于改善含许可相位的信号交叉口交通安全和通行效率。     

Quantifying travel time variability at a single bottleneck based on stochastic capacity and demand distributions

Travel time reliability, an essential factor in traveler route and departure time decisions, serves as an important quality of service measure for dynamic transportation systems. This article investigates a fundamental problem of quantifying travel time variability from its root sources: stochastic capacity and demand variations that follow commonly used log-normal distributions. A volume-to-capacity ratio-based travel time function and a point queue model are used to demonstrate how day-to-day travel time variability can be explained from the underlying demand and capacity variations. One important finding is that closed-form solutions can be derived to formulate travel time variations as a function of random demand/capacity distributions, but there are certain cases in which a closed-form expression does not exist and numerical approximation methods are required. This article also uses probabilistic capacity reduction information to estimate time-dependent travel time variability distributions under conditions of non-recurring traffic congestion. The proposed models provide theoretically rigorous and practically useful tools for understanding the causes of travel time unreliability and evaluating the system-wide benefit of reducing demand and capacity variability.     

基于交通流理论的公交站点间行程时间预测

分析了公交站点间车辆运行过程,将行程预测时间划分为交叉口排队等待时间、路段行驶时间和停站时间3个部分,利用交通波理论和延误三角形,分别建立了无公交专用车道和有公交专用车道2种情况下排队等待时间的动态预测模型;根据乘客到站规律和上下车规律,提出了公交车进站停靠时间模型;针对无公交专用车道条件下的时间预测方法进行了实例演算.实验数据表明,基于交通波行程时间预测方法具有较高的精度,可以满足站点间行程时间预报要求.     

基于行程质量的随机用户平衡分配模型

提出行程质量的概念以描述出行者在不确定环境下的路径选择准则。将行程质量定义为行程时间和行程时间可靠性的线性加权和,综合了影响路径选择的两个不同的重要因素:行程时间和行程时间可靠性。假定在路段通行能力随机变化的情况下出行者以估计行程质量费用最小作为路径选择的标准,建立了基于行程质量的随机用户平衡分配模型。证明了模型解的等价性和唯一性,给出了求解模型的MSA算法。在一个小型测试网络上的计算结果表明:模型能够反映出行者在随机路网中的路径选择行为。     

双开口式逆流左转车道几何设计及信号配时优化

为解决单开口式（即仅有1个预信号开口）逆流左转车道（即通过预信号控制动态借用的出口车道）的长度与左转交通需求匹配效果不佳的问题,通过对单开口式逆流左转车道的设计进行分析,提出1种双开口式（即设置2个预信号开口）逆流左转车道的设计及控制方法。结合逆流左转车道的车辆运行规则,分析单开口式、双开口式逆流左转车道上车辆排队行为特征差异,构建逆流左转车道通行能力计算模型和延误计算模型。考虑主预信号协调控制、饱和度、交通波传递等约束条件,以车均延误最小为优化目标,采用0-1变量表示各个预信号开口是否启用,将常规设计、单开口式、双开口式信号配时整合到1个统一的混合整数非线性规划优化模型中,并给出逆流左转车道长度的设计依据。通过案例分析发现:①在逆流左转车道长度为80 m时,交叉口通行能力提升幅度最大;②当通行能力满足需求时,逆流左转车道长度越短,交叉口延误降低越明显;③若为保证通行能力而采用较长的逆流左转车道时,双开口式逆流左转车道通行效率优于单开口式;④综合考虑延误、通行能力等因素,单开口式逆流左转车道长度宜设置为40~60 m,而双开口式宜设置为80 m左右;⑤双开口式逆流左转车道可根据需要选择是否启用每个预信号开口,应用较为灵活,适用于各种流量场景。      

环形交叉口待行区设置与信号控制方法

为解决环形交叉口左转通行能力不足的问题，提出一种借助内侧环道与外侧环道设置左转待行区和直行待行区，并建立环道交通信号与进口道交通信号协调控制的环形交叉口信号控制方法。在饱和度等约束条件下，基于进口道停车线和环道停车线后不同的交通状态建立相应的延误计算模型，以延误最小为优化目标建立信号控制参数优化模型。案例分析表明：当左转交通量低于左转二次停车控制法适用的左转临界值时，所提出方法的延误较高；而当左转交通量高于该临界值时，左转二次停车控制法的延误快速上升并高于所提出方法的延误，且将导致环道锁死，而采用该方法仍能稳定运行，验证了提出方法的有效性。进一步分析进口交通量、不同类型环道数量和环岛半径等差异对所提出方法控制效益的影响，结果表明：随着环形交叉口进口交通量增大，该方法适用的临界左转比例随之降低；当进口交通量的左转比例低于临界左转比例时，交叉口处于非饱和状态且延误低；反之，交叉口处于过饱和状态且延误高。当左转交通量高于450 veh·h^-1时，增加左转环道有利于降低车均延误；而当直行交通量高于1 150 veh·h^-1时，增加直行环道效果更佳。当进口交通量小于800 veh·h^-1时，环岛半径对交叉口延误影响不大；而一旦进口交通量高于800 veh·h^-1后，环岛半径对车均延误的影响随进口交通量的增长愈加显著，环岛半径越大，交叉口车均延误就越高。     

基于数据驱动的电动汽车动力电池SOC预测

为准确预测电动汽车动力电池的能耗,缓解驾驶者的里程焦虑,本文中提出一种基于数据驱动的电动汽车动力电池SOC预测模型。首先分析电动汽车能耗构成并提取能耗影响因素,接着基于某款电动出租车CAN总线采集的汽车运行数据,采用机器学习算法,提出基于温度分层的能耗模型,通过宏观数据与微观数据的融合减小误差,最后使用该模型对车载BMS提供的SOC数据进行对比验证。结果表明,该模型预测效果较好,为帮助优化电动汽车能量控制策略、缓解里程焦虑提供科学的决策支持。     

两相位信号交叉口左转交通流延误模型的研究

左转车是信号控制交叉口产生冲突点最多的车辆,因此对左转交通流的延误分析是研究交叉口延误的基础。文中在研究改进的HCM延误模型基础上,考虑了左转车流驶离交叉口时非机动车驶入机动车道从而造成左转车流的跟驰延误,结合我国交叉口左转交通流的特性,建立了一个两相位信号交叉口左转交通流延误模型,并通过实例说明了此模型的有效性和适用性。     

基于首次超越机制的小规模路网可靠性模型研究

可靠性可用于评价路网性能。传统的路网可靠性指标基于路段可靠性推导而得,因数据获取难度大等诸多缺点导致难以实践应用。分析了传统路网可靠性指标的不足,基于路网行程时间,通过构造合理的单输入单输出路网结构模型,获得表征路网结构的功能函数,并得到一般路网的可靠性模型。在此基础上,基于首次超越机制,在泊松假设的前提下构造了评价路网可靠性的模型。基于Vissim 仿真平台介绍了模型的应用过程,仿真结果与路网运行状态相符。      

电动汽车充电设施现状及发展趋势

利用可再生能源已成为了世界的重点。电动汽车由于低碳环保,是汽车产业的的未来发展趋势。与电动汽车配套的充电设施必须与之保持同步,电动汽车的发展才能不受制约。为此,本论文重点研究了电动汽车充电设施的现状和未来的发展趋势。     

城市信号交叉口左转待行区设置及效益评价研究

目前,左转待行区已经在很多城市得到推广。介绍左转待行区设置的一般步骤,结合交叉口几何条件、左转车流、直行车流分析左转待行区设置的量化条件,根据最短绿灯间隔计算左转待行区长度的临界值,选取通行能力、停车延误、停车次数等参数来评价左转待行区设置对交通效益的影响,并结合南京市新建交叉口实测数据进行分析。结果表明：南京市汉中路-虎踞南路交叉口满足左转待行区设置条件,在不改变其他条件的前提下,较之左转待行区使用前通行能力大幅增加,车均延误略有降低,停车次数有所增加。因此,在满足设置条件的前提下,设置左转待行区能够有效提高交叉口行车效率,改善运行环境。     

Effectiveness of travel time reliability indicators in the light of the assessment of dynamic managed lane strategy

ABSTRACT

The aim of traffic management is to ensure a high quality of service for a maximum number of users by decreasing congestion and increasing safety. Uncertainty of travel times decreases the quality of service and leads end users to modify their plans regardless of the average travel time. Indicators describing travel time reliability are being developed and should be used in the future both for the optimization and for the assessment of active traffic management operations. This article discusses the efficiency of certain reliability indicators in an ex-post assessment of a traffic management strategy. Ex-post assessment is based on an observational before–after study. As some factors other than the studied management strategy may intervene between the two periods, and as most reliability indicators require knowledge of the full travel time distribution and not only its average, a methodology is developed for the identification of the impact of these exogenous factors on the whole distribution. Many reliability indicators are split into different parts allowing the identification of the part due to the management strategy impact. The methodology is tested numerically on a managed lane operation consisting of Hard Shoulder Running (HSR) at rush hour on a section of a French motorway. The variation of some reliability indicators appears misleading, whereas the splitting of the indicators increases our understanding of the strategy and highlights its impact. The paper gives the reliability assessment of the HSR field test and discusses different reliability indicators to identify their potential performances and shortcomings.     

信号交叉口左转专用可变车道设置研究

针对某些城市信号交叉口各流向交通流量分布不均导致的左转车道拥挤问题,为减少交叉口的道路资源浪费,提出在交叉口出口道设置左转专用可变车道的交通组织方法.结合已有理论研究,归纳出左转专用车道的静态和动态适用条件,并确定左转可变车道的长度、开关时间等参数的计算模型.以威海市某信号交叉口为例,通过交通调查与分析,提出设置西进口左转专用可变车道的可行性,并使用Vissim微观仿真的方法对左转可变车道的应用效果进行模拟分析,最后给出该交叉口的交通管理设施设置方案.方案实施前后仿真结果表明,可变车道设置后的20个周期内,左转车流的延误降低51%,排队长度降低72%,左转效率得到了极大提升.      

公共交通系统营运可靠性研究

优先发展公共交通是大城市解决交通拥堵,实现城市交通可持续发展的一项重要措施,然而,公交营运水平的低下制约着公交的发展。本文借鉴可靠性理论对公共交通营运可靠性进行定义,并对公交营运时间和乘客服务可靠性分别进行了描述,据此建立起公交系统营运可靠性模型,然后采用随机模拟技术(即Monte Carlo模拟)进行求解,通过算例说明模型的可行性,最后通过分析可靠性模型得出大型活动期间改善公交营运的途径。     

基于数据融合的路段行程时间估计

基于检测器数据的路段行程时间估计通常具有精度不高和可靠性差的特点。论文引入了自适应式卡尔曼滤波,采用K近邻法寻找相似的交通流状态来标定状态转移系数,建立了基于固定型检测器数据和移动型检测器数据的路段行程时间估计融合模型。实际数据的验证结果是,平均相对误差为9.52%,相对误差的标准差为8.92%。研究表明,与基于移动检测器数据的估计方法相比较,该方法极大地改善了估计精度和可靠性,还具有收敛速度快、对初值不敏感、参数少等特点。