集装箱船舶大型化对中国班轮运输的影响

通过竞争情报分析提供了各班轮公司未来船队结构和运力的变化趋势,由此观察到各班轮公司为了降低自身的营运成本,在最近几年大量订购超巴拿马型甚至更大型的集装箱船舶参与运输,但是却不能达到其预期的规模效应。原因就在于相当一部分成本随着船型的增大而线性增加,规模不经济。我们探讨了中国的班轮运输市场的几个重要特点:中外贸易的不平衡导致了货源的不平衡;未来贸易结构的调整会影响航线的布局和调派;贸易上的不稳定因素使班轮公司遇到外在的风险。这些特点会深远地影响集装箱船舶大型化的经济受益,相反的,集装箱船舶大型化的趋势也会加剧这些负面的影响,危及整个班轮运输市场。     

Liner alliances in the globalization era: a strategic tool for Asian container carriers

There has been an increased interest recently in alliances as successors of the large consortia that used to operate in the context of the conference system. Today, having become a common means and term of co-operation in a variety of other industries, alliances are posited as the response of the supply side of liner shipping to important changes on the demand side; alliances have, thus, become predominant in the most important routes for container cargoes. In recent years, however, the list of major container traffic generators and the list of major carriers of containerized cargoes have begun to contain more common entries, generally originating from the Asian region. Asia is, however, a large continent and the entrance of Asian carriers into liner shipping has not been simultaneous; the position, strategies and co-operation strategies of Asian companies have more differences than they share common features. Nevertheless, this paper suggests that alliances are a distinct form of co-operation in liner shipping and the empirical evidence based on a survey in the region supports this hypothesis. The similarity of attitudes of the major Asian container carriers vis a vis alliances is in this way revealing in terms of the range of motivations for participating in the alliance system in a globalized transport environment.     

An econometric analysis for container shipping market

This article presents an econometric analysis for the fluctuation of the container freight rate due to the interactions between the demand for container transportation services and the container fleet capacity. The demand is derived from international trade and is assumed to be exogenous, while the fleet capacity increases with new orders made two years before, proportional to the industrial profit. Assuming the market clears each year, the shipping freight rate will change with the relative magnitude of shifts in the demand and fleet capacity.

This model is estimated using the world container shipping market statistics from 1980 to 2008, applying the three-stage least square method. The estimated parameters of the model have high statistical significance, and the overall explanatory power of the model is above 90%. The short-term in-sample prediction of the model can largely replicate the container shipping market fluctuation in terms of the fleet size dynamics and the freight rate fluctuation in the past 20 years. The prediction of the future market trend reveals that the container freight rate should continue to decrease in the coming three years if the demand for container transportation services grows at less than 8%.     

Risk perception affecting the performance of shipping companies: the moderating effect of China and Korea

Risks in the shipping industry have been highlighted and have attracted significant attention, especially following the bankruptcy of Hanjin in 2017. Due to the decrease in container volume, the business environment for large shipping companies in China has deteriorated. Therefore, major large shipping companies have implemented mixed ownership reform, which provides more opportunities for large Korean shipping companies to enter the Chinese shipping industry. This study first identifies risk perception, specifically focusing on the moderating effect of Chinese and Korean shipping companies, and then demonstrates the impact of these risks on shipping company performance. The results show that market, operational, and technical risks have a negative influence on Chinese shipping companies, whereas market, policy, financial, operations, and technical risks have a negative influence on Korean shipping companies. This study contributes to the fundamental understanding of the effect of risk perception on performance among shipping companies in both countries and calls for further research on risk management plans based on the risk factors identified herein. On a practical level, this study provides an important reference for operators and investors who seek to enter strategic alliances or joint venture in Chinese shipping industry.     

集装箱运输的发展及我国航运公司的发展策略

介绍了近几年国际集装箱班轮市场的发展情况及所呈现的趋势;然后分析了我国的集装箱班轮公司在国际海运市场竞争中的优劣;最后为我国航运企业的发展提出了几点建议。     

Vulnerability analysis of global container shipping liner network based on main channel disruption

The Malacca Strait, the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal play an important role in the global container shipping. To study the impact of main channel interruption on the container shipping, we analysed statistical data on all routes operated by the top 100 global container liner companies and constructed a network model. We selected four topological metrics to measure the network’s connectivity and used the network weekly total shipping capacity and average shortest shipping time to measure the network’s transportation capacity and transportation time. The interruption of the main channel is simulated, and the changes in the metrics are analysed. The results indicated that the network’s vulnerability is sensitive to main channel interruption. If the Malacca Strait is interrupted, the network’s prosperity degree fall by almost half and the network’s transportation time increase by more than a quarter if the Suez Canal is interrupted. In addition, East Asian and European container liner shipping have more than 50% dependence on the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal. Moreover, the container transport time between ports in East Asia, Europe, and North America and the rest of the world increases by an average of 4–9 days in the main channel interruption.     

Strategic fleet size planning for maritime refrigerated containers

In the present economic climate, it is often the case that profits can only be improved, or for that matter maintained, by improving efficiency and cutting costs. This is particularly notorious in the shipping business, where it has been seen that the competition is getting tougher among carriers, thus alliances and partnerships are resulting for cost effective services in recent years. In this scenario, effective planning methods are important not only for strategic but also operating tasks, covering their entire transportation systems. Container fleet size planning is an important part of the strategy of any shipping line. This paper addresses the problem of fleet size planning for refrigerated containers, to achieve cost-effective services in a competitive maritime shipping market. An analytical model is first discussed to determine the optimal size of an own dry container fleet. Then, this is extended for an own refrigerated container fleet, which is the case when an extremely unbalanced trade represents one of the major investment decisions to be taken by liner operators. Next, a simulation model is developed for fleet sizing in a more practical situation and, by using this, various scenarios are analysed to determine the most convenient composition of refrigerated fleet between own and leased containers for the transpacific cargo trade.     

我国集装箱班轮运输市场垄断程度研究

从市场集中度指数、市场力量和垄断行为3个方面考察我国国际集装箱班轮运输市场的垄断程度，显然高于将全球作为“一个”市场的程度。从市场集中度指数可以认为我国班轮运输市场已经达到中型寡头垄断程度。我国远洋班轮航线的勒纳指数高于0．6，甚至接近于1，说明班轮公司市场力量之强大。而我国现行的法律法规中没有为班轮运输市场的买方预设运价谈判和利益诉求机制，则使运输需求快速增长的中国外贸企业明显处于弱势地位。     

集装箱班轮运输市场的集中度分析

近年来,国际集装箱班轮运输业的市场集中程度日益提高。本文运用绝对集中度指标从班轮公司运力方面对国际集装箱班轮运输业市场集中度的演变过程进行深入分析,并对国际集装箱班轮运输业的市场结构进行了初步探讨。     

Refrigerated container versus bulk: evidence from the banana cold chain

During the last 20 years, the reefer shipping sector has been characterised by a gradual changing process, leading from specialised vessels to reefer containers. In fact, the reefer bulk fleet has experienced an irreversible decline, while the reefer container fleet has shown a continuous growth. This article investigates the current major factors shaping the reefer shipping industry, in order to understand the economic drivers inducing competition between bulk and containers. Therefore, a twofold analysis has been performed. First, an overview of the reefer market, including the cold chain, the demand for refrigerated products and the supply of reefer capacity given both by containership fleet and by conventional reefer fleet. Second, a specific case of the banana trade has been carried out for evaluating the revenues of each player involved in the banana cold chain followed by a cost analysis. The results reveal the market tendencies, focusing on the main sources of competition for bulk versus container.     

2011年世界船舶市场评述与未来展望

在"增长放缓、风险增大"的2011年全球经济环境下,世界航运市场受"运力投放无休、运营成本增加"的影响而表现为"低迷不振"。新船的不断交付也使世界商船队年轻化势不可挡。新船建造市场同比有所下滑,液货船和散货船表现不佳,集装箱船和海工市场表现较好,新船价格呈现小幅下调趋势。预计2012年世界船市在三大主力船型上仍不容乐观,海工市场继续有尚佳表现。     

Strategic alliances in container liner shipping

The economic crisis in the years between 2008 and 2010 has demonstrated the necessity for substantial adjustments on behalf of container lines. Capacities were shifted quickly to emerging and less affected markets allowing a faster recovery of globally organized companies. This paper illustrates the dynamics in the container shipping market. Alongside the main characteristics of the Top 20 ocean shipping companies, liner services are described. These services are classified by geographic coverage and vessel deployment. In addition, this paper provides a better understanding of the collaboration among service providers. Starting from a general framework of co-operative liner services, in-depth analyses of the global alliances in liner shipping are obtained. These formations - Grand Alliance, New World Alliance and CKYH Alliance - are compared with alternative forms of collaboration in the liner shipping industry. The analysis of alliance announcements which are related to operational and strategic changes indicates that the “global alliances” cannot be regarded as closed corporate-like entities. In effect, service agreements are not only negotiated with the focal members of the specific alliance. Instead, every service is arranged individually and under specific conditions. By understanding the dynamics within alliances, we are able to develop an assessment relating to the stability of collaborations. Ultimately, these insights direct us to several paths for future research.     

Connectivity analysis of the global shipping network by eigenvalue decomposition

ABSTRACT

Maritime shipping necessitates flexible and cost-effective port access worldwide through the global shipping network. This paper presents an efficient method to identify major port communities, and analyses the network connectivity of the global shipping network based on community structure. The global shipping network is represented by a signless Laplacian matrix which can be decomposed to generate its eigenvectors and corresponding eigenvalues. The largest gaps between the eigenvalues were then used to determine the optimal number of communities within the network. The eigenvalue decomposition method offers the advantage of detecting port communities without relying on a priori assumption about the number of communities and the size of each community. By applying this method to a dataset collected from seven world leading liner shipping companies, we found that the ports are clustered into three communities in the global container shipping network, which is consistent with the major container trade routes. The sparse linkages between port communities indicate where access is relatively poor.     

A reactive container rerouting model for container flow recovery in a hub-and-spoke liner shipping network

This paper focuses on the container rerouting due to a disruption, aims at making the optimal container flow recovery plan for the affected liner shipping company. First, we make the initial effort to bring up with a basic framework of disruption management for liner shipping. Second, we present a compact integer linear programming model for addressing the container rerouting problem under the proposed framework in a hub-and-spoke liner shipping network, based on a given recovery vessel schedule that determines to omit a port of call. Other shipping companies’ services and other modes (roadway, railway, and airline) as candidate alternative means to transport the miss-connected containers are also incorporated in the proposed model. The container flow recovery plan would select the optimal alternative paths for the miss-connected containers balancing the trade-off between container transport costs and delivery delay penalty costs. Finally, a case study from a global liner shipping company is investigated and the computational results indicate the model can be solved effectively and efficiently for the real-scale problem. Thus, the proposed approach in this paper can supply real-time decision support tool for the liner shipping operators on handling the process of container flow recovery.     

Verifying liner Shipping Alliance’s stability by applying core theory

The core is a vital concept in cooperative game theory and has been widely used in analyzing alliance’s stability. It is especially interesting to apply core theory in liner shipping market due to the latter’s exceptional characteristic of non-homogeneous cost curves as well as divisible and fluctuant demand. Having observed some new phenomena and trends in the industry, this paper studies the economic performance and stability of liner shipping alliance by applying core theory where business cooperation is partly realized by delivering joint-service with mega container ships. To demonstrate the core situation in liner shipping alliance, a cost function is first identified on the basis of two assumptions regarding cooperation: 1) sharing or pooling vessels and 2) deploying mega container ships if needed. Taking cost functions as basis, two conditions of approaching core may be groomed, i.e., collective rationality and individual rationality. The first condition is discussed from the perspective of market, while the second condition is studied within the alliance. Stability of liner shipping alliance is then observed based on these two conditions. An illustrative case study is conducted in order to show some implications and explicitly clarify the theory.     

Lessons from bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping Company in chartering

This paper aims to analyze the charter contract management of major container shipping companies in response to fluctuations in shipping market conditions in terms of contract duration using data of containerships between 2010 and 2016. Duration analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between charter duration and shipping market conditions. Moreover, this paper explores the causes of Hanjin Shipping Company’s bankruptcy, drawing managerial implications. Test results from Cox PH (Proportional Hazard) model show that most container shipping companies in Europe having net earnings purchased large vessels instead of chartering vessels, while some ocean carriers featuring poor financial performance, in particular the Hanjin Shipping Company, chartered bigger ships with higher charter rates and longer duration. Contract charter rates and duration of Hanjin Shipping Company featured greater risk compared to competitors.     

'Government preference' and its influence on the shipping industry in Korea

The author suggests the existence of 'government preference', which has changed the structure of the Korean economy from that of a light-goods industry to one of a heavy and chemical goods industry; and which has affected the formation of an export-dependent economy. 'Government preference' has also affected the shipping sector which was favoured as a foreign-exchange earner, not as an income generator. Korean shipping expanded through market forces in its earlier developmental stage where tonnage of the Korean fleet grew moderately and profitability was reasonably good; and by 'government preference' towards shipping externalities (balance-of-payments effect and support for export industry) which became a prime concern of the government in later years where the fleet expanded rapidly in spite of negative profitability. It follows that under circumstances of 'government preference' which is strong enough to work and which prefers shipping's external effect to value added generated by shipping. Korean shipping might well record a poor performance in terms of profitability. This means that Korean shipping companies' prime concern lies in 'survival' not in 'profit'.     

The adaptation of the Polish shipping companies to market conditions

At the end of the eighties, fundamental changes took place in Polish shipping. Implementation of the market economy system was at first demonstrated in the introduction of the principles of self-dependence, self-government and self-financing of the shipping companies. Privatization performed a key role in the program of transformation of the centrally planned system into market oriented financially independent shipping organizations. The previous principle of the necessary participation of the home fleet in transporting domestic sea-borne trade has been mostly replaced by cross-trade. Many shipping services have left its basic ports in the country for a West European basis, securing alimentation of home and transit cargoes by feeder-service systems. Joint stock companies in shipping with substantial shares of foreign capital are welcomed, and the previously obligatory system of administrative methods of the state monopoly has been abolished. The principles of shipping policy represented in the past by Poland and also by UNCTAD in the 1960s have lost their impact and must be change and adapted to the new demands of the shipping markets.     

Strategic alliances in the container shipping industry: a global perspective

This paper examines developments in container shipping in light of the formation of strategic alliances by many of the leading companies. It focuses on three features: the transformation of services, the evolution of the fleet, and the adjustments made to the ports of call. These elements are analysed on a global basis for 3 years: 1989, 1994 and 1999. Some of the changes wrought by the alliances are identified, including the spread and intensification of services, and the deployment of the largest vessels on alliance routes. While the individual companies that have come together in alliances are serving many more ports than before, it is also demonstrated that the total number of ports served by the industry has remained constant. The results are interpreted in the context of globalization that is tending to impose greater standardization on the container shipping industry.     

Evaluating economic and environmental value of liner vessel sharing along the maritime silk road

The Belt and Road initiative is a novel exploration of China towards strategic collaboration with Eurasia countries to an extent of a larger scale with higher and deeper level of cooperation. To meet the growing global demand of transportation, increasing numbers of liner shipping companies collaborate and form alliances to share vessel capacity and reduce capital costs. Effective liner shipping vessel sharing is essential for the Belt and Road initiative in terms of building efficient maritime transport networks. In promoting environmental development, shipping companies are required to attain higher environmental standards. However, limited literature relates vessel sharing to environmental performance. This paper studies the impacts of liner vessel sharing from the economic and environmental perspectives. Two container allocation models are developed for the two scenarios: with and without vessel sharing. The carbon emissions in transportation are calculated under both scenarios. Numerical studies are carried out using services along the China-Indochina Peninsula Economic (CIPE) Corridor. Liner shipping companies could benefit from vessel sharing in terms of significant profit improvement. Vessel sharing could also benefit the environment by reducing the CO₂ emissions dramatically.