On including travel time reliability of road traffic in appraisal

In many countries, decision-making on proposals for national or regional infrastructure projects in passenger and freight transport includes carrying out a cost–benefit analysis for these projects. Reductions in travel times are usually a key benefit. However, if a project also reduces the variability of travel time, travellers, freight operators and shippers will enjoy additional benefits, the ‘reliability benefits’. Until now, these benefits are usually not included in the cost–benefit analysis. To include reliability of travel or transport time in the cost–benefit analysis of infrastructure projects not only monetary values of reliability, but also reliability forecasting models are needed. As a result of an extensive feasibility study carried out for the German Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development this paper aims to provide a literature overview and outcomes of an expert panel on how best to calculate and monetise reliability benefits, synthesised into recommendations for implementing travel time reliability into existing transport models in the short, medium, and long term. The paper focuses on road transport, which has also been the topic for most of the available literature on modelling and valuing transport time reliability.     

Changes in the relationships between transport,communications and urban form

Transport, communications and urban form cover an overlapping area of rising academic and practical concern. This paper traces several of the many themes brought together under different professional banners, and shows how a confluence of interest is emerging.The themes are the developments in urban planning analysis, transport and time use studies, telecommunications and industrial location, all of which contribute to the area of locational effects of improved telecommunications technology, and are affected by alterations in the nature of work and the uses made of time by individuals. The convergence of geographical, planning, transportation and communication developments now requires explicit investigation, as the timings of technological and theoretical developments appear to coincide with the emergence of a significant need to do so. Some of the gaps between present knowledge and expertise that need to be filled are specified.These include the investigation of the testing and use of current land use integrated analyses for road and development assessment, investigation of the nature and characteristics of work and education which are most affected by telecommunications and computer support, development of longitudinal monitoring methods for overall urban development leading indicators, exploitation of newly-available cross-sectional household and city data sets in conjunction with historical data for longitudinal investigations and forward projections, accounting for altered family structure and activity patterns and the anticipation and assessment of probable further technological change, which can and will undermine many current long term commitments.     

LNG-fuelled fishing vessels: A systems engineering approach

Air emissions from fishing vessels must be reduced to comply with progressively stringent environmental regulations. Among the available solutions, liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel may represent a promising solution, particularly from an environmental perspective. However, the use of LNG as a marine fuel creates different types of hazards than those that exist for traditional fuels. In addition, the increased complexity, safety requirements, and space required for LNG installation increase the capital cost. This article uses a systems engineering approach to clarify the technical aspects of LNG-fuelled systems, their potential implementation costs, and the expertise and training required to operate them safely. Ship owners can use such an approach to aid decision-making and trade-off analyses. Naval architects may also benefit from better information management. Finally, crews may better understand the logic behind the safety actions they are instructed to take.     

海湾沉管隧道建设方案的环境条件及环境影响

海湾地区的环境条件对沉管隧道的建设方案可能存在着一定的制约作用,而建设方案也会在一定程度上对周边环境产生一些负面影响,因此确定建设方案时需考虑尽量减少对环境的破坏,并应充分利用有利的环境条件。文章结合海湾地区的特点,着重分析了海湾沉管隧道的建设条件和环境影响,提出了工程建设过程中应注意的问题,同时对建设方案的合理性和环境保护措施进行了探讨。     

Repeatability & reproducibility: Implications of using GPS data for freight activity chains

As transport modellers we are interested in capturing the behaviour of freight vehicles that includes the locations at which vehicles perform their activities, the duration of activities, how often these locations are visited, and the sequence in which they are visited. With disaggregated freight behaviour data being scarce, transport modellers have identified vehicle tracking and fleet management companies as ideal third party sources for GPS travel data. GPS data does not provide us with behavioural information, but allows us to infer and extract behavioural knowledge using a variety of processing techniques. Many researchers remain sceptical as specific human intervention, referred to as ‘expert knowledge’, is often required during the processing phase: each GPS data set has unique characteristics and requires unique processing techniques and validation to extract the necessary behavioural information. Although much of the GPS data processing is automated through algorithms, human scrutiny is required to decide what algorithmic parameters as considered ‘best’, or at least ‘good’. In this paper we investigate the repeatability and reproducibility (R&R) of a method that entails variable human intervention in processing GPS data. More specifically, the judgement made by an observer with domain expertise on what clustering parameters applied to GPS data best identify the facilities where commercial vehicles perform their activities. By studying repeatability we want to answer the question ‘if the same expert analyses the GPS data more than once, how similar are the outcomes?’, and with reproducibility we want to answer the question ‘if different experts analyse the same GPS data, how similar are their outcomes?’ We follow two approaches to quantify the R&R and conclude in both cases that the measurement system is accurate. The use of GPS data and the associated expert judgements can hence be applied with confidence in freight transport models.     

Influence of 3D printing on transport: a theory and experts judgment based conceptual model

Consumer 3D printing is on the rise and has the potential to significantly change the transport and logistics sector. Current literature on 3D printing and transport studies does not provide a systematic model of the impact of 3D printing on transport and related (policy relevant) areas, such as traffic safety, location decisions, accessibility and environmental effects. Based on a literature review and two rounds of expert consultation, we propose and refine a conceptual model as a way to approach this gap in the literature. The expert consultation yields that the conceptual model comprises the relevant and important elements for assessing the impact of 3D printing on transport and transport-related challenges. Location, needs and transport resistance are important: (a) city-level hubs are the most likely locations for 3D printers because they can coordinate material flows and gather expertise; (b) mass-individualisation and personification dictates the needs for 3D printers; (c) distribution networks will be organised more efficiently, less empty vehicles, but raw materials still need shipping. However, experts’ opinions diverged on the impact of 3D printing on transport volumes and environmental impacts.     

Multi-step prediction of experienced travel times using agent-based modeling

This paper develops an agent-based modeling approach to predict multi-step ahead experienced travel times using real-time and historical spatiotemporal traffic data. At the microscopic level, each agent represents an expert in a decision-making system. Each expert predicts the travel time for each time interval according to experiences from a historical dataset. A set of agent interactions is developed to preserve agents that correspond to traffic patterns similar to the real-time measurements and replace invalid agents or agents associated with negligible weights with new agents. Consequently, the aggregation of each agent’s recommendation (predicted travel time with associated weight) provides a macroscopic level of output, namely the predicted travel time distribution. Probe vehicle data from a 95-mile freeway stretch along I-64 and I-264 are used to test different predictors. The results show that the agent-based modeling approach produces the least prediction error compared to other state-of-the-practice and state-of-the-art methods (instantaneous travel time, historical average and k-nearest neighbor), and maintains less than a 9% prediction error for trip departures up to 60 min into the future for a two-hour trip. Moreover, the confidence boundaries of the predicted travel times demonstrate that the proposed approach also provides high accuracy in predicting travel time confidence intervals. Finally, the proposed approach does not require offline training thus making it easily transferable to other locations and the fast algorithm computation allows the proposed approach to be implemented in real-time applications in Traffic Management Centers.     

航空公司安全管理绩效动态提升机制

为解决航空公司安全管理决策短期化、滞后化问题,有效提升其安全管理水平,在民航安全管理理论系统分析的基础上,深入挖掘安全管理绩效要素及其影响路径,构建了航空公司安全管理绩效系统动力学模型。通过专家访谈法确定了各要素指标间的影响关系及其权重,并运用VENSIM软件对模型进行了仿真,结果表明:当航空公司安全管理绩效达到某种程度后,其提升速率呈减缓趋势,需及时调整安全投入策略;此时安全政策和目标、安全监督检查、安全保障资源和安全沟通可作为未来提升安全管理绩效的最佳干预策略组合,为航空公司的安全管理决策提供科学依据。     

Changes in transport planning policy: Changes in transport planning methodology?

The 1990s saw the emergence of influential transport legislation both in the UK and in the USA. This "watershed" period appears to indicate that a significant turning point in transport policy is underway. There is now a need to re-evaluate how transport planning is done, and to consider changes to commonly used methods. Criticisms of urban transport planning are traced in the paper. These often focus on the four-stage modelling approach, but some authors also criticise the "rational comprehensive" paradigmatical framework within which the use of four-stage computer models is situated. It is argued that the rational comprehensive model of thinking is less useful today, due to the increasing complexity of the transport planning exercise; the rejection by the public of the transport planner as "expert"; and the highly political nature of transport planning. Alternative approaches are needed in order to address the new types of problems which transport planners face. The use of one such alternative approach, the Soft Systems Methodology, is illustrated as suitable for investigating complex decision-making systems in transport planning. It is suggested that this method could be beneficial in other problematic transport planning situations where the rational comprehensive approaches prove inadequate. Finally, the paper briefly looks ahead and considers the implications of a changing policy environment to the training of transport planners in the future.     

西江水运主通道通航枢纽建设关键技术研究

文章主要介绍西部项目西江水运主通道通航枢纽建设研究的背景、内容、成果及关键技术,为其他航运枢纽建设提供了设计、决策的依据,其研究成果具有广阔的应用和参考价值。     

福州地铁施工围挡的分级分类设置研究

施工围挡是建设工程实行封闭施工的主要措施之一,施工围挡不仅体现一个城市品质,其安全和质量性能更涉及工程的顺利进行乃至人民群众的生命财产安全。本论文以福州地铁为例,根据施工所在区域的道路性质、周边环境、车站类型、施工工法、施工阶段及占道时长等因素,对施工围挡进行分级、分类设计研究,制定了不同阶段施工围挡的标准和技术参数,对今后类似工程工具有很好的借鉴意义。     

Incorporating socio-political criteria into the maintenance prioritization of Chilean urban pavement networks

Managing urban pavement networks presents additional challenges when compared to the management of interurban pavements. In particular, the prioritization of maintenance activities – which is critical when resources are limited – requires special considerations. Within these considerations, there are socio-political criteria that are not formally considered in current UPMS (Urban Pavement Management Systems). In practice, decision makers consider these socio-political factors but without a formal procedure and proper information, leading to decisions based on subjective information, which lack traceability and reliability.The objective of this study is the identification and formal definition – including the quantification method – of socio-political criteria relevant for the sustainable management of urban pavement networks. The research method included the application of interviews and a survey of experts and practitioners in various agencies involved in the pavement maintenance decision-making process in Chile. As a result of the study, five primary socio-political criteria were identified: neighbors’ perception, proximity to critical infrastructure, benefited population, presence of alternative routes, and strategic selection based on public policy. These criteria were formalized – including how they should be quantified – through an expert panel. A regression analysis applied to various scenarios considered in the survey resulted in the quantification of the relative importance of the formalized socio-political factors to be considered in the decision process, complementing technical and economic criteria. Future research will explore the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to quantify the recommended socio-political factors and implement them in an UPMS.     

Critical success conditions of collaborative methods: a comparative evaluation of transport planning projects

This paper explores critical success conditions of collaborative planning projects in the area of urban transport, evaluating the impact of new collaborative methods, instruments and processes on project performance. Hypothesis building is based on a comparative, empirical research design, rather than on deductive theory construction. Potential critical success conditions are derived from literature. Based on five urban transport planning projects in Gothenburg (Sweden), London (United Kingdom), Milwaukee (United States), Tokyo (Japan) and Mexico City (Mexico), a rough set analysis of the five cases reveals validated success conditions, which can be used for formulating hypotheses for further research or for policy and process improvement. The results suggest that a dedicated management of the multi-actor network, a high diversity of actors, as well as an extensive use of knowledge integration methods in combination with a high network density are critical success conditions of these planning processes. Surprisingly, the extensive use of unilateral methods also showed to be an important success condition. The traditional role of the planner will have to be complemented with the expertise of network and methodology management. The authors conclude that rough set analysis can be a valuable addition to narrative, single-case analysis of collaborative urban transport planning processes.     

The importance of the use phase on the LCA of environmentally friendly solutions for asphalt road pavements

In order to assess sustainability of products and processes, different methodologies have been developed and used in the last years. In the road pavement construction area, most methodologies used for Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) are essentially focused in the construction phase. The present paper analyses the importance of the use phase of a road in the LCA of different paving alternatives, namely by evaluating energy consumption and gaseous emissions throughout the road pavement’s life. Therefore, a new LCA methodology for road pavements was developed, and the results of its application to a case study involving the construction of alternative pavement structures are discussed. The study intends to assess the influence of using more sustainable paving construction alternatives (asphalt recycling vs. conventional asphalt mixtures), and/or different surface course materials (which have a higher influence on the rolling resistance and, therefore, affect the performance during the use phase). The LCA results obtained for this case study showed that the reductions in energy consumption and gaseous emissions obtained during the use phase, for pavement alternatives with a lower rolling resistance surface course, are higher than the total amount of energy consumption and gas emissions produced during construction. It is therefore clear that some improvements in the characteristics of the surface course may have an effect over the road use phase that will rapidly balance the initial costs and gas emissions of those interventions. The LCA results obtained also showed that the sustainability of pavement construction may also be improved using recycled asphalt mixtures.     

Does the income elasticity of road traffic depend on the source of income?

An extensive body of literature addresses the income elasticity of road traffic, in which income is typically treated as a homogenous quantity. Here we report evidence of heterogeneity in cross-sectional estimates of the elasticity of vehicle-kilometres of travel (VKT) with respect to income, when household income is disaggregated on the basis of income source.The results are generally intuitive, and show that the cross-sectional income elasticity of road traffic is not homogeneous as is typically specified in transport planning models. We show that in a number of circumstances the cross-sectional elasticity with respect to aggregate household income is of the opposite sign in comparison to more refined estimates of elasticity disaggregated by income source. If further research confirms that the elasticities we report here are causal in nature, neglecting the elemental effects could result in misleading results affecting practical infrastructure-investment and policy decisions, particularly as the mix of income sources shifts (e.g. if, as society ages, pension income increases as a share of all income).These results are of interest to both researchers and forecasters of travel demand, as well as designers of future travel survey instruments; the latter group must decide how to generate data about respondents’ income. Current expert guidance is to collect a single estimate of aggregate income at the household level. Future travel survey design choices will bound the analyses that can be supported by the resulting survey data, and therefore methodological research to re-visit the trade-offs associated with such choices is warranted.     

A reference-dependent user equilibrium model for activity-travel scheduling

Existing user equilibrium models of activity-travel scheduling generally fall short in representing travelers’ decision-making processes. The majority have either implicitly or explicitly assumed that travelers follow the principle of utility maximization. This assumption ignores the fact that individuals may be loss–averse when making activity-travel decisions. Allowing for the situation that travelers possess accurate information of the urban-transportation system due to modern technologies, studies on reference-dependent decision-making under near-perfect information are receiving increasing attention. In view of traveler heterogeneity, individuals can be divided into multiple classes according to their reference points. In this paper, we propose a reference-dependent multi-class user equilibrium model for activity-travel scheduling, which can be reformulated as a variational inequality problem. Moreover, comparative analyses are conducted on the equilibrium states between utility-maximization (no reference) and reference-dependency of exogenous and endogenous references. A numerical example regarding combined departure-time and mode choice for commuting is conducted to illustrate the proposed model. The simulated results indicate that reference points and loss aversion attitudes have significant effects on the choice of departure time and mode.     

Using Seismic Tomography and Holography Ground Imaging to Investigate Ground Conditions

Unforeseen, variable subsurface ground conditions present the greatest challenge to the heavy construction and civil engineering industry in the design, construction, and maintenance of large projects. A detailed, accurate site investigation will reduce project risk, improve construction performance and safety, prolong the life of the tunnel or structure,and prevent waste in over - design. Presently, site characterization and geotechnical engineering are limited by the inability to adequately describe these subsurface ground conditions.NSA Geotechnical Services has successfully applied seismic tomography and holography ground imaging technologies on tunneling and heavy civil excavations worldwide. Seismic signal waveforms traveling through a complex medium consist of various arrivals from refractions, reflections, scattering, and dispersion. Tomography and holography are proven inversion technologies for estimating location and extent of material property variations causing changes in signal waveforms.ent attenuation rates and velocities. Seismic waves will travel faster through competent material and be generally less attenuated than through broken/fractured ground or voids.encounters an interface between ground zones possessing different seismic properties. Most geologic structures, anomalies,and changes in lithology provide detectable seismic reflections if they are within a reasonable distance of the seismic source.This paper will present various applications of these technologies, illustrating how seismic imaging can provide accurate information regarding ground conditions associated with tunneling projects. With this information, engineers can complete projects safely, within time and budget constraints.     

Limitations of transport policy

There is an implication in the notion of 'transport policy' that substantial improvements could be made to the transport system given sufficient ingenuity, investment and good will. This paper argues that such policy aspirations cannot cope with the desire for ever-increasing mobility, a deep and powerful force in modern society. In densely populated countries there is no possibility of meeting the demand for unconstrained movement through construction of additional transport infrastructure, since new and longer journeys would quickly fill the extra capacity until the congestion equilibrium is re-established. What limits mobility in practice is the time individuals have available for travel, time which is equitably distributed. Transport plans need to acknowledge this time constraint as fundamental, and accordingly be realistically modest about what is achievable. It is an illusion that the transport system could be substantially more efficient whilst remaining equitable.     

Institutional issues in planning for more uncertain futures

Future travel demand has always been difficult to estimate. Recent trends of a slow down or stagnation in traffic growth combined with substantial demographic, economic, and technological shifts further complicate that task. This poses a significant planning challenge given that decision-making is often based on the benefits of infrastructure investments which accrue over periods as long as 60 years. In contrast to the changing ideas around what mobility in the future will look like and the types of demand it may need to service, the practice of forecasting future travel demand remains largely unchanged as do the decision-making processes which flow from this. Alternative approaches to thinking about futures such as scenario planning exist but have had more limited deployment in the transport sector. This paper explores the institutional issues surrounding the purpose, practice and barriers to changing the approaches of forecasting and decision-making through an exploration of the state of practice in the UK drawing on interviews with 23 practitioners. Drawing on Hall’s work on policy change, the research finds that there is a strong policy paradigm built around the relationships between transport investment and traffic growth. This has strengthened since the recession with an increased focus on the relationship between transport and job creation. The forecasting approaches in use today are an important part of a complex decision-making apparatus reflective of specialized policy arenas like transport. Challenges in acknowledging, representing and communicating uncertainty are identified leaving a growing tension between planning visions and planning practice. We conclude by reflecting on events which may stimulate a broader reframing of how we plan for transport futures whilst embracing key uncertainties.

     

道路环境对交通安全的影响及对策

交通安全,涉及到人、车以及道路和环境等很多因素。近年来,因为各种原因使得有关单位以及人员将更多的将精力放在人、车、道路这几个因素上,对道路交通环境没有过多的考虑和研究。深入研究道路交通环境,有利于道路交通的安全,文章通过对其的研究和分析,得出有关道路交通环境对交通安全的影响和解决措施,对于防止道路交通安全事故具有重要意义。同时为人们的生命财产的安全提供保障、对构建社会主义和谐社会具有很大帮助。