A delay root cause discovery and timetable adjustment model for enhancing the punctuality of railway services

Knock-on delay, which is the key factor in punctuality of railway service, is mainly related to two factors including the quality of timetable in the planning phase and disturbances which may result in unscheduled trains’ waiting or meeting in operation phase. If the delay root cause and the interactions among the factors responsible for these can be clearly clarified, then the punctuality of railway operations can be enhanced by taking reactions such as timetable adjustment, rescheduling or rerouting of railway traffic in case of disturbances. These delay reasons can be used to predict the lengths of railway disruptions and effective reactions can be applied in disruption management. In this work, a delay root cause discovery model is proposed, which integrates heterogeneous railway operation data sources to reconstruct the details of the railway operations. A supervised decision tree method following the machine learning and data mining techniques is designed to estimate the key factors in knock-on delays. It discovers the root cause delay factor by logically analyzing the scheduled or un-scheduled trains meetings and overtaking behaviors, and the subsequent delay propagations. Experiment results show that the proposed decision tree can predict the delay reason with the accuracy of 83%, and it can be further enhance to 90% if the delay cause is only considered “prolonged passengers boarding” and “meeting or overtaking” factors. The delay root cause can be discovered by the proposed model, verified by frequency filtering in operation records, and resolved by the adjustment of timetable which is an important reference for the next timetable rescheduling. The results of this study can be applied to railway operation decision support and disruption management, especially with regard to timetable rescheduling, trains resequencing or rerouting, system reliability analysis, and service quality improvements.     

Closing the loop in real-time railway control: Framework design and impacts on operations

Railway traffic is heavily affected by disturbances and/or disruptions, which are often cause of delays and low performance of train services. The impact and the propagation of such delays can be mitigated by relying on automatic tools for rescheduling traffic in real-time. These tools predict future track conflict based on current train information and provide suitable control measures (e.g. reordering, retiming and/or rerouting) by using advanced mathematical models. A growing literature is available on these tools, but their effects on real operations are blurry and not yet well known, due to the very scarce implementation of such systems in practice.In this paper we widen the knowledge on how automatic real-time rescheduling tools can influence train performance when interfaced with railway operations. To this purpose we build up a novel traffic control framework that couples the state-of-the art automatic rescheduling tool ROMA, with the realistic railway traffic simulation environment EGTRAIN, used as a surrogate of the real field. At regular times ROMA is fed with current traffic information measured from the field (i.e. EGTRAIN) in order to predict possible conflicts and compute (sub) optimal control measures that minimize the max consecutive delay on the network. We test the impact of the traffic control framework based on different types of interaction (i.e. open loop, multiple open loop, closed loop) between the rescheduling tool and the simulation environment as well as different combinations of parameter values (such as the rescheduling interval and prediction horizon). The influence of different traffic prediction models (assuming e.g. aggressive versus conservative driving behaviour) is also investigated together with the effects on traffic due to control delays of the dispatcher in implementing the control measures computed by the rescheduling tool.Results obtained for the Dutch railway corridor Utrecht–Den Bosch show that a closed loop interaction outperforms both the multiple open loop and the open loop approaches, especially with large control delays and limited information on train entrance delays and dwell times. A slow rescheduling frequency and a large prediction horizon improve the quality of the control measure. A limited control delay and a conservative prediction of train speed help filtering out uncertain traffic dynamics thereby increasing the effectiveness of the implemented measures.     

A delay propagation algorithm for large-scale railway traffic networks

In scheduled railway traffic networks a single delayed train may cause a domino effect of secondary delays over the entire network, which is a main concern to planners and dispatchers. This paper presents a model and an algorithm to compute the propagation of initial delays over a periodic railway timetable. The railway system is modelled as a linear system in max-plus algebra including zero-order dynamics corresponding to delay propagation within a timetable period. A timed event graph representation is exploited in an effective graph algorithm that computes the propagation of train delays using a bucket implementation to store the propagated delays. The behaviour of the delay propagation and the convergence of the algorithm is analysed depending on timetable properties such as realisability and stability. Different types of delays and delay behaviour are discussed, including primary and secondary delays, structural delays, periodic delay regimes, and delay explosion. A decomposition method based on linearity is introduced to deal with structural and initial delays separately. The algorithm can be applied to large-scale scheduled railway traffic networks in real-time applications such as interactive timetable stability analysis and decision support systems to assist train dispatchers.     

Passenger oriented railway disruption management by adapting timetables and rolling stock schedules

In passenger railway operations, unforeseen events require railway operators to adjust their timetable and their resource schedules. The passengers will also adapt their routes to their destinations. When determining the new timetable and rolling stock schedule, the railway operator has to take passenger behavior into account. The operator should increase the capacity of trains for which the operator expects more demand than on a regular day. Furthermore, the operator could increase the frequency of the trains that serve stations with an additional demand.This paper describes a real-time disruption management approach which integrates the rescheduling of the rolling stock and the timetable by taking the changed passenger demand into account. The timetable decisions are limited to additional stops of trains at stations at which they normally would not call. Several variants of the approach are suggested, with the difference in how to determine which additional stops should be executed.Real-time rescheduling requires fast solutions. Therefore a heuristic approach is used. We demonstrate the performance of the several variants of our algorithm on realistic instances of Netherlands Railways, the major railway operator in the Netherlands.     

Reinforcement learning approach for train rescheduling on a single-track railway

Optimal rail network infrastructure and rolling stock utilization can be achieved with use of different scheduling tools by extensive planning a long time before actual operations. The initial train timetable takes into account possible smaller disturbances, which can be compensated within the schedule. Bigger disruptions, such as accidents, rolling stock breakdown, prolonged passenger boarding, and changed speed limit cause delays that require train rescheduling. In this paper, we introduce a train rescheduling method based on reinforcement learning, and more specifically, Q-learning. We present here the Q-learning principles for train rescheduling, which consist of a learning agent and its actions, environment and its states, as well as rewards. The use of the proposed approach is first illustrated on a simple rescheduling problem comprising a single-lane track with three trains. The evaluation of the approach is performed on extensive set of experiments carried out on a real-world railway network in Slovenia. The empirical results show that Q-learning lead to rescheduling solutions that are at least equivalent and often superior to those of several basic rescheduling methods that do not rely on learning agents. The solutions are learned within reasonable computational time, a crucial factor for real-time applications.     

The multi-objective railway timetable rescheduling problem

Unexpected disruptions occur for many reasons in railway networks and cause delays, cancelations, and, eventually, passenger inconvenience. This research focuses on the railway timetable rescheduling problem from a macroscopic point of view in case of large disruptions. The originality of our approach is to integrate three objectives to generate a disposition timetable: the passenger satisfaction, the operational costs and the deviation from the undisrupted timetable. We formulate the problem as an Integer Linear Program that optimizes the first objective and includes $\epsilon$-constraints for the two other ones. By solving the problem for different values of $\epsilon$, the three-dimensional Pareto frontier can be explored to understand the trade-offs among the three objectives. The model includes measures such as canceling, delaying or rerouting the trains of the undisrupted timetable, as well as scheduling emergency trains. Furthermore, passenger flows are adapted dynamically to the new timetable. Computational experiments are performed on a realistic case study based on a heavily used part of the Dutch railway network. The model is able to find optimal solutions in reasonable computational times. The results provide evidence that adopting a demand-oriented approach for the management of disruptions not only is possible, but may lead to significant improvement in passenger satisfaction, associated with a low operational cost of the disposition timetable.     

Real-time automatic rescheduling strategy for an urban rail line by integrating the information of fault handling

In the operation of urban rails, faults are inevitable, which leads to deviation between the actual timetable and the planned timetable. In nowadays, timetable rescheduling strategies rarely integrate the information of fault handling. In this paper, we develop a real-time automatic rescheduling strategy, which integrates the dynamic information of fault handling. The rescheduled timetable is obtained by a mathematical optimization model, the constraints set of which is automatically generated and adjusted as more information of fault handling is feedback. Compared with the experience-based rescheduling methods, the automatic rescheduling strategy reacts more quickly, and uses the information of fault handling more efficiently. A simulation system for testing the automatic rescheduling strategy is built, which uses the data of the Beijing Yizhuang metro line. Via testing on the simulation system, the effectiveness and efficiency of the automatic rescheduling strategy are validated.     

Distributed model predictive control for railway traffic management

Every day small delays occur in almost all railway networks. Such small delays are often called “disturbances” in literature. In order to deal with disturbances dispatchers reschedule and reroute trains, or break connections. We call this the railway management problem. In this paper we describe how the railway management problem can be solved using centralized model predictive control (MPC) and we propose several distributed model predictive control (DMPC) methods to solve the railway management problem for entire (national) railway networks. Furthermore, we propose an optimization method to determine a good partitioning of the network in an arbitrary number of sub-networks that is used for the DMPC methods. The DMPC methods are extensively tested in a case study using a model of the Dutch railway network and the trains of the Nederlandse Spoorwegen. From the case study it is clear that the DMPC methods can solve the railway traffic management problem, with the same reduction in delays, much faster than the centralized MPC method.     

Strategic assessment of capacity consumption in railway networks: Framework and model

In this paper, we develop a new framework for strategic planning purposes to calculate railway infrastructure occupation and capacity consumption in networks, independent of a timetable. Furthermore, a model implementing the framework is presented. In this model different train sequences are generated and assessed to obtain timetable independence. A stochastic simulation of delays is used to obtain the capacity consumption. The model is tested on a case network where four different infrastructure scenarios are considered. Both infrastructure occupation and capacity consumption results are obtained efficiently with little input. The case illustrates the model’s ability to quantify the capacity gain from infrastructure scenario to infrastructure scenario which can be used to increase the number of trains or improve the robustness of the system.     

Evaluation of green wave policy in real-time railway traffic management

In order to face the expected growth of transport demand in the next years, several new traffic control policies have been proposed and analyzed both to generate timetables and to effectively manage the traffic in real-time. In this paper, a detailed optimization model is used to analyze one such policy, called green wave, which consists in letting trains wait at the stations to avoid speed profile modifications in open corridors. Such policy is expected to be especially effective when the corridors are the bottleneck of the network. However, there is a lack of quantitative studies on the real-time effects of using this policy. To this end, this work shows a comparison of the delays obtained when trains are allowed or not to change their speed profile in open corridors. An extensive computational study is described for two practical dispatching areas of the Dutch railway network.     

Within day rescheduling microsimulation combined with macrosimulated traffic

The concept of rescheduling is essential to activity-based modeling in order to calculate effects of both unexpected incidents and adaptation of individuals to traffic demand management measures. When collaboration between individuals is involved or timetable based public transportation modes are chosen, rescheduling becomes complex. This paper describes a new framework to investigate algorithms for rescheduling at a large scale. The framework allows to explicitly model the information flow between traffic information services and travelers. It combines macroscopic traffic assignment with microscopic simulation of agents adapting their schedules. Perception filtering is introduced to allow for traveler specific interpretation of perceived macroscopic data and for information going unnoticed; perception filters feed person specific short term predictions about the environment required for schedule adaptation. Individuals are assumed to maximize schedule utility. Initial agendas are created by the FEATHERS activity-based schedule generator for mutually independent individuals using an undisturbed loaded transportation network. The new framework allows both actor behavior and external phenomena to influence the transportation network state; individuals interpret the state changes via perception filtering and start adapting their schedules, again affecting the network via updated traffic demand. The first rescheduling mechanism that has been investigated uses marginal utility that monotonically decreases with activity duration and a monotonically converging relaxation algorithm to efficiently determine the new activity timing. The current framework implementation is aimed to support re-timing, re-location and activity re-sequencing; re-routing at the level of the individual however, requires microscopic travel simulation.     

Development of hybrid optimization of train schedules model for N-track rail corridors

From a capacity perspective, efficient utilization of a railway corridor has two main objectives; avoidance of schedule conflicts, and finding a proper balance between capacity utilization and level of service (LOS). There are several timetable tools and commercial rail simulation packages available to assist in reaching these objectives, but few of them offer both automatic train conflict resolution and automatic timetable management features for the different types of corridor configurations. This research presents a new rescheduling model to address some of the current limitations. The multi-objective linear programming (LP) model is called “Hybrid Optimization of Train Schedules” (HOTS), and it works together with commercial rail simulation tools to improve capacity utilization or LOS metrics. The HOTS model uses both conflict resolution and timetable compression techniques and is applicable to single-, double-, and multiple-track corridors (N-track networks), using both directional and bi-directional operations. This paper presents the approach, formulation and data requirements for the HOTS model. Single and multi-track case studies test and demonstrate the model’s train conflict resolution and timetable compression capabilities, and the model’s results are validated by using RailSys simulation package. The HOTS model performs well in each tested scenario, providing comparable results (either improved or similar) to the commercial packages.     

Urban traffic state estimation: Fusing point and zone based data

Loop detectors are the oldest and widely used traffic data source. On urban arterials, they are mainly installed for signal control. Recently state-of-the art Bluetooth MAC Scanners (BMS) has significantly captured the interest of stakeholders for exploiting it for area-wide traffic monitoring. Loop detectors provide flow – a fundamental traffic parameter; whereas BMS provides individual vehicle travel time between BMS stations. Hence, these two data sources complement each other, and if integrated should increase the accuracy and reliability of the traffic state estimation.This paper proposed a model that integrates loops and BMS data for seamless travel time and density estimation for urban signalised network. The proposed model is validated using both real and simulated data and the results indicate that the accuracy of the proposed model is over 90%.     

Multiple-phase train trajectory optimization with signalling and operational constraints

The train trajectory optimization problem aims at finding the optimal speed profiles and control regimes for a safe, punctual, comfortable, and energy-efficient train operation. This paper studies the train trajectory optimization problem with consideration of general operational constraints as well as signalling constraints. Operational constraints refer to time and speed restrictions from the actual timetable, while signalling constraints refer to the influences of signal aspects and automatic train protection on train operation. A railway timetable provides each train with a train path envelope, which consists of a set of positions on the route with a specified target time and speed point or window. The train trajectory optimization problem is formulated as a multiple-phase optimal control model and solved by a pseudospectral method. This model is able to capture varying gradients and speed limits, as well as time and speed constraints from the train path envelope. Train trajectory calculation methods under delay and no-delay situations are discussed. When the train follows the planned timetable, the train trajectory calculation aims at minimizing energy consumption, whereas in the case of delays the train trajectory is re-calculated to track the possibly adjusted timetable with the aim of minimizing delays as well as energy consumption. Moreover, the train operation could be affected by yellow or red signals, which is taken into account in the train speed regulation. For this purpose, two optimization policies are developed with either limited or full information of the train ahead. A local signal response policy ensures that the train makes correct and quick responses to different signalling aspects, while a global green wave policy aims at avoiding yellow signals and thus proceed with all green signals. The method is applied in a case study of two successive trains running on a corridor with various delays showing the benefit of accurate predictive information of the leading train on energy consumption and train delay of the following train.     

An expert system for air traffic flow management

An expert system for the air traffic flow management (ATFM) problem is presented. Two main prototypes have been constructed, one for timetable rescheduling that attempts to modify airline timetables to smooth traffic peaks at airports during rush-hours and another for centralized flow control that works to forecast the place, time and magnitude of the congestion and to propose mitigative actions. Simulations for the Brazilian ATFM, including the principal 14 airports, show the potential usefulness of the expert system.     

A parallel algorithm for train rescheduling

One of the crucial factors in achieving a high punctuality in railway traffic systems, is the ability to effectively reschedule the trains when disturbances occur. The railway traffic rescheduling problem is a complex task to solve both from a practical and a computational perspective. Problems of practically relevant sizes have typically a very large search space, making them time-consuming to solve even for state-of-the-art optimization solvers. Though competitive algorithmic approaches are a widespread topic of research, not much research has been done to explore the opportunities and challenges in parallelizing them. This paper presents a parallel algorithm to efficiently solve the real-time railway rescheduling problem on a multi-core parallel architecture. We devised (1) an effective way to represent the solution space as a binary tree and (2) a novel sequential heuristic algorithm based on a depth-first search (DFS) strategy that quickly traverses the tree. Based on that, we designed a parallel algorithm for a multi-core architecture, which proved to be 10.5 times faster than the sequential algorithm even when run on a single processing core. When executed on a parallel machine with 8 cores, the speed further increased by a factor of 4.68 and every disturbance scenario in the considered case study was solved within 6 s. We conclude that for the problem under consideration, though a sequential DFS approach is fast in several disturbance scenarios, it is notably slower in many other disturbance scenarios. The parallel DFS approach that combines a DFS with simultaneous breadth-wise tree exploration, while being much faster on an average, is also consistently fast across all scenarios.     

An improved car‐following model for railway traffic

In this paper, we propose an improved traffic model for simulating train movement in railway traffic. The proposed model is based on optimal velocity car‐following model. In order to test the proposed model, we use it to simulate the train movement with fixed‐block system. In simulations, we analyze and discuss the space–time diagram of railway traffic flow and the trajectories of train movement. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model can be successfully used for simulating the train movement in railway traffic. From the space–time diagram, we find some complex phenomena of train flow, which are observed in real railway traffic, such as train delays. By analyzing the trajectories of train movement, some dynamic characteristics of trains can be reproduced. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A three-level framework for performance-based railway timetabling

The performance of railway operations depends highly on the quality of the railway timetable. In particular for dense railway networks it can be challenging to obtain a stable robust conflict-free and energy-efficient timetable with acceptable infrastructure occupation and short journey times. This paper presents a performance-based railway timetabling framework integrating timetable construction and evaluation on three levels: microscopic, macroscopic, and a corridor fine-tuning level, where each performance indicator is optimized or evaluated at the appropriate level. A modular implementation of the three-level framework is presented and demonstrated on a case study on the Dutch railway network illustrating the feasibility of this approach to achieve the highest timetabling design level.     

Railway traffic disturbance management—An experimental analysis of disturbance complexity,management objectives and limitations in planning horizon

With the increasing traffic volumes in European railway networks and reports on capacity deficiencies that cause reliability problems, the need for efficient disturbance management becomes evident. This paper presents a heuristic approach for railway traffic re-scheduling during disturbances and a performance evaluation for various disturbance settings using data for a large part of the Swedish railway network that currently experiences capacity deficiencies. The significance of applying certain re-scheduling objectives and their correlation with performance measures are also investigated. The analysis shows e.g. that a minimisation of accumulated delays has a tendency to delay more trains than a minimisation of total final delay or total delay costs. An experimental study of how the choice of planning horizon in the re-scheduling process affects the network on longer-term is finally presented. The results indicate that solutions which are good on longer-term can be achieved despite the use of a limited planning horizon. A 60 min long planning horizon was sufficient for the scenarios in the experiments.     

Real-time energy consumption minimization in railway networks

A new timetable must be calculated in real-time when train operations are perturbed. Although energy consumption is becoming a central issue both from the environmental and economic perspective, it is usually neglected in the timetable recalculation. In this paper, we formalize the real-time Energy Consumption Minimization Problem (rtECMP). It finds in real-time the driving regime combination for each train that minimizes energy consumption, respecting given routing and precedences between trains. In the possible driving regime combinations, train routes are split in subsections for which one of the regimes resulting from the Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle is to be chosen. We model the trade-off between minimizing energy consumption and total delay by considering as objective function their weighted sum. We propose an algorithm to solve the rtECMP, based on the solution of a mixed-integer linear programming model. We test this algorithm on the Pierrefitte-Gonesse control area, which is a critical area in France with dense mixed traffic. The results show that the problem is tractable and an optimal solution of the model tackled can often be found in real-time for most instances.