Risk and return of U.S. water transportation stocks over time and over bull and bear market conditions

The aim of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of water transportation company stock returns in the U.S. stock exchanges from 1985 to 1994 in order to determine whether the systematic risk of this industry is different from that of the 'average' company in the market, whether it has changed over the ten year period, over bull and bear market conditions, and whether there is a firm 'size' effect in the industry. In the context of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (Capm), we find that the systematic risk of the shipping industry return is not different from that of the 'average' company. It is also found that the covariance of water transportation companies with respect to the overall stock market return did not change over the ten year period although it appears that it has changed over normal upward/downward market movements. There is also reasonable evidence that the intercept of the equation might have changed over normal upward/downward market movements. Finally, we document contradictory evidence regarding the size effect; during the period 1985-1989 we find small companies to have significantly higher returns and risk while during the period 1990-1994 medium size companies tend to have higher risk than small and large firms, which is not however compensated by higher returns.     

International comparison of market risks across shipping-related industries

This paper compares the behaviour of shipping and shipping-related company stock returns to reveal whether systematic risk differs from the average in the market and across sub-sectors of the maritime industry. Following an extensive collection of information through a postal questionnaire survey, 108 publicly listed shipping and shipping-related companies, across stock exchanges of the world, are classified by sector according to their core business activity. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is employed for the period 1996-1999 to model stock returns and measure sector βs (systematic risk). Stock returns over the period are mostly negative. The systematic risks of the Drilling and Offshore sectors are significantly higher than those of all other sectors, but are not different from each other. There is no significant difference between the systematic risks of the Bulk, Tanker, Container and Ferry sectors. The systematic risk of the Cruise sector lies somewhere between these two groups. There is no difference in the systematic risk of companies that diversified within shipping or shipping-related industries when compared to companies that diversified in other areas. Over all companies in the sample, βis lower than the market average, and so are the βs of the Ferry, Tanker, Bulk, Container and Yard sectors. Only the βof the Drilling sector is statistically higher than one, while the Cruise, Diversified and Offshore sectors are statistically one.     

房地产市场风险分析方法研究

随着我国市场经济的逐步完善,房地产业逐步成为国民经济的一大支柱。因此,研究房地产投资风险对我国房地产投资的有序发展具有十分重要的意义。文章介绍了利用贝叶斯(Bayes)概率理论、蒙特卡洛模拟及投影寻踪模型的三种风险分析方法。三种方法各有特点,房地产投资者可针对不同类型及严重性各不相同的风险,寻找和确定相应的风险分析办法,拟定决策方案。     

关于房地产业宏观调控的思考

近年来房地产行业迅速发展,以房地产业为代表的部分行业出现过热现象,加强宏观调控是政府和个人都应该关心的问题。本文通过对房地产业和传统的采掘业、与人民生活密切相关的电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业进行实证研究。对房地产宏观调控不明显的原因进行分析,并在此基础上对房地产业调控提出了政策建议。     

我国旅游房地产开发存在的问题与对策

旅游房地产是旅游业和房地产业相结合的一种经营形态,也是发展我国旅游业和房地产业的途径。本文旨在通过分析我国旅游房地产开发现状,找出存在的各类问题并试图提出对策以求旅游房地产开发的健康发展。     

A quantitative risk analysis by using interval type-2 fuzzy FMEA approach: the case of oil spill

ABSTRACT

Risk assessment in maritime domain is one of the most cited topics since maritime transportation poses potential hazard for human life, marine environment and property. To mitigate risk and enhance safety awareness in maritime transportation, safety researchers have been seeking proactive solutions. This article prompts a quantitative risk-based approach combining interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs) with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to perform a comprehensive risk analysis. Thus, potential failure modes and their effects are revealed by calculating risk prioritisation numbers (RPNs). Whilst the FMEA method provides a robust risk analysing tool with relevant control options, the IT2FSs deals with ambiguity and vagueness of linguistic assessment of decision-makers through the FMEA. Hence, expert’s linguistic assessment in risk assessment can be transformed into useful information in terms of enhancing safety and pollution prevention in maritime industry. To demonstrate the proposed approach, potential failures and effects of a real shipboard oil spill case are handled. The findings show that incomplete information exchanged with local maritime authorities, malfunction of oil skimmer and poor organization of shoreline clean-up team are the most important failures during case of oil spill. The proposed approach provides not only theoretical insight into the maritime transportation industry but also practical contributions to chemical/oil tanker safety and environmental protection by mitigating risk in terms of technical or operational aspects.     

Industrial water dependency: The BCDC experience

The Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC), has designated a number of shoreline sites around San Francisco Bay for exclusive use of water‐related industry. This is intended both to reduce future needs for Bay fill, and to reserve those waterfront sites needed for long‐term industrial growth. The Commission currently defines water‐related industries as those “requiring”; a shoreline site for water transportation. The Commission is now considering the use of an economic criterion for identifying water dependency. This involves comparisons of the uniquely water‐related benefits and costs to the firm to locate on the shoreline, as opposed to its location at an inland site. By limiting use of deepwater sites to those industries that are significantly water‐dependent under this criterion, long‐term economic efficiency is served, and the need for future Bay fill for industrial growth is reduced. The data and analysis required to implement an economic water‐dependency criterion do not appear to be a barrier to use of such a test in the regulatory process. Whereas water dependency is an important concern to BCDC, other factors, including environmental constraints, must also be weighed when evaluating industrial projects.     

Results so far and prospects of Kazakhstan passenger rail franchising

From 1991 till 2004 passenger rail transportation in Kazakhstan was organized by a public company without financial contribution from the state budget. As in any post-Soviet country losses from passenger sector in the integrated rail company were covered at the expense of the freight transportations. From 2005 the Government is trying to introduce competition in passenger rail industry by competitive tendering rights to operate on particular route and providing subsidies.This paper reviews the Kazakhstan passenger rail franchising policy from statement and implementation with analysis of results so far. To get sense about the current policy’s perception survey among managers of the government bodies and railway companies had been performed. It indicates respondents’ opinion about main concerns and suggestions for improvement in passenger rail industry. According to provided analysis there are opportunities for improvements in operation of public and private companies as well as in the Government policy.     

Conditional modelling of tanker market risk using route specific freight rates

This paper provides statistical evidence in support of the view, widely held in the tanker industry, that there are systematic differences in the degree of risk involved in investing in tankers of different sizes, and in operating tankers in spot and time charter markets. The industry view, broadly supported by the results of this paper, is that larger vessels are 'risker' assets than smaller vessels, and operating vessels in the time-charter market is less risky than employing them on a spot basis. The results are obtained by using a method derived from the financial economics literature, which models both the conditional mean and variance of a variable, known as GARCH modelling. Only one other paper has applied this method to the tanker market, and these results provide confirmatory support of those findings.     

Impact of regulation on the performances of long-distance transport services: A comparison of the different approaches in Sweden and Norway

Despite the many socio-economic similarities between Sweden and Norway, differences in jurisdiction, organisation, cooperation, and financing of long-distance passenger train and coach services have led to the development of four distinctively different ways of serving the markets. This paper describes how the train and coach markets have developed in the two countries, with emphasis on regulatory and industrial structure and a couple of performance variables.Looking at passenger rail, both countries separated infrastructure from operation over a decade ago. However, while Norwegian rail is characterised by an almost monopoly supplier, rail services in Sweden are partly decentralised to the responsibility of county authorities and are widely subjected to competitive tendering. The rest of the network is about to be opened up for on-the-track competition. Swedish Rail (SJ) has spent the last decades consolidating its core business (passenger rail) and sold out its other businesses. In contrast, the Norwegian state rail (NSB) has expanded its business to become a major bus operator and property owner, with extensions also into the Swedish market.The coach industry was more recently deregulated in both countries. The Swedish coach market is dominated by privately owned companies operating services to and from Stockholm. In Norway, state-owned NSB is a major coach operator on medium distance routes, and is also the largest partner of Nor-Way Bussekspress which totally dominates long-distance coach services. Further, the Norwegian coach market is characterised by cross-ownership and cooperation which has enabled an extensive route network which covers most of Norway.We find distinct differences in achievements in the two modes and in the two countries. Swedish rail services have succeeded in winning market shares and in renewing and developing both infrastructure and service levels to a greater extent than the Norwegian model. On the other hand, the Norwegian coach market seems to be more developed and efficient compared to its Swedish counterpart.The paper concludes with a discussion on the possible links between the different approaches and the performance observed, with the aim to stimulate further and more detailed research on some important issues.     

The empirical evidence of the leverage effect on volatility in international bulk shipping market

This paper mainly applies Nelson's EGARCH (Exponentially Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model to investigate the leverage effect in the presence of the international bulk shipping market. The daily return of three different types of bulk vessel in the sampling period selected has been examined. We find that all return series show a significantly negative relation in terms of return and volatility and the leverage effect on volatility is more significant in market downward movement than in market upward movement under the same magnitude of innovation, in addition, the larger vessels have much more leverage effect than smaller vessels contemporaneously. Therefore, it seems to be an inherent nature in the international bulk shipping market that the phenomenon of an asymmetric impact between past innovations and current volatility. This result from the investigation may provide investors with an insight into real characteristics of price return volatility, it is useful for investors to pre-arrange their portfolios of assets, risk management e.g. enabling them to achieve a reduction of investment risk and an increase of operation performance in profit gain.     

国际集装箱运输市场的现状、趋势及对策

在国际集装箱运输市场的两个主要影响因素增长速度总体趋于变缓的影响下,国际集装箱运输市场出现了一些新的现状和趋势。在分析国际集装箱运输市场主要影响因素变化的基础上,从市场需求、市场供给、市场价格、服务内容等方面分析了国际集装箱运输市场的现状;进一步地研究了国际集装箱运输市场的未来趋势。基于国际集装箱运输市场的未来趋势,主要从造船业、航运业、港口业、集装箱制造业等行业角度给出了具体对策。     

远洋运输对油轮的需求分析

远洋运输市场对船舶的需求是世界船舶制造业发展主要影响因素,一般而言,远洋运输市场主要分为油轮运输、集装箱运输和散货船运输三个市场。本文以油轮运输市场为研究对象,进行仔细分析,以把握远洋运输市场对油轮制造业的需求。     

Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: The VECM approach

This paper examines the effect of transportation (road and rail) infrastructure on economic growth in India over the period 1970–2010. Using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the paper finds bidirectional causality between road transportation and economic growth. It also finds bidirectional causality between road transportation and capital formation, bidirectional causality between gross domestic capital formation and economic growth, unidirectional causality from rail transportation to economic growth and unidirectional causality from rail transportation to gross capital formation. The paper suggests that expansion of transport infrastructure (both road and rail) along with gross capital formation will lead to substantial growth of the Indian economy. Therefore, within its stated scope, this study suggests that a suitable transport policy should be retained to boost transportation infrastructure and hence sustainable economic growth in India.     

放射性废料的运输

More and more low - level radioactive waste is carried by sea, rail and highways. These materials are generated by public uilities, industries, universities and hospitals throughout the world, The waste is transported to available low - level waste disposal sites, primarily by ships in containers designed for transportation of low - level waste. Carriers.     

Editorial: Young maritime researchers—a note of respect

Globalization, liberalization, competition and spatial interaction are significant factors affecting the transformation of manufacturing industries worldwide. In the transportation and logistics industry, however, cooperation is becoming even more critical than competition in determining firms' efficiency. Cooperation has always characterized the liner sector in which strategic alliances, mergers and acquisitions have generated twin effects: notable increases in ship size and falls in freight rates. Meanwhile, the stevedoring industry is undergoing privatization-driven consolidation and the emergence of global pure terminal operators. This article focuses on vertical integration between global carriers and terminal operators. We address the following key current issues: 1. dedicated terminals as a strategy for cutting costs and controlling integrated transport chains;

2. the struggle for supply chain control, involving global carriers versus global terminal operators, driven by financial power and technical and managerial capability.

We close analysing one of the core problems of the market, namely the evolving role of the dedicated terminals. For the pure stevedores they represent an opportunity to secure a cargo, while in the hands of the liners they enable cost stability and the possibility to put pressure on pure terminal operators.     

A cross-section analysis of stock returns: The case of shipping firms

This paper undertakes an analysis of the determinants of the cross-section of expected stock returns of 19 shipping companies listed in the US, Norway, Stockholm and London. Various factors, including company stock market beta, divided yield, and financial leverage have been identified in the finance literature as determinants of share price performance. We capitalize on these findings and add one more industry specific factor, the average age of the company's fleet, to quantitatively analyse the determinants of the performance of shipping shock returns. We use the Fama-MacBeth methodology to empirically test whether the five factors above have a significant effect on shipping stocks' performance. Our results indicate that the industry specific factor (the average age of the fleet) plus financial leverage, are significant in explaining shipping stocks' returns, wheras the stock market beta and the dividend yield are far less significant.     

Military contracts to water transportation services in the United States

Long excluded from academic analysis, military expenditures on water transportation are a significant aspect of the industry, especially given the rapid increases in the U.S. military budget in the 1980s. This paper begins with an overview of military relations with the water transporation industry; next, it proceeds to a survey of the spatial dimensions of prime contracts awarded to water transporation and dredging firms in the U.S. Thirdly, it explores their economic impacts on teh U.S. economy using input-output analysis.     

论我国房地产按揭中银行风险的法律防范

随着我国房地产业的发展,房地产按揭这种新的融资购楼方式日渐普遍。但按揭在我国毕竟是新生事物,相关的法律法规并不完善,因而给实际操作带来很大不便。尤其是贷款银行的权益很难得到有效保护。有鉴于此,笔者以此为研究对象,通过对房地产按揭涵义及法律特点的剖析,重点探讨贷款银行风险的法律防范问题。在此基础上,借鉴发达国家的先进经验,具体结合我国当前房地产按揭的现状,进而提出为完善我国贷款银行风险法律防范的建议措施。     

Risk assessment of inland waterborne transportation using data mining

ABSTRACT

China has constructed a relatively complete inland waterborne transportation system. However, the frequent occurrence of inland water accidents with serious consequences, like the catastrophic Orient Star shipwreck, is an urgent unsolved problem. To reduce such accidents in the future and improve inland waterborne transportation safety, this study uses data mining, mainly containing text mining and association rule mining to risk assess China’s inland waterborne transportation, rather than the traditional quantitative risk assessment model. Text mining enables the risk factors to be objectively identified and distilled from accident reports. The potential relationships between risk variables are explored using association rule mining, based on the FP-Growth algorithm. The results reveal the essential problem facing China’s inland waterborne transportation system: frequent and varied ship accidents; key risk factors include overloading or improper loading, poor navigation visibility, inadequate sailor competence, and insufficient government supervision of shipowners and shipping companies. Combining the actual circumstances of inland waterborne transportation operations, this study proposes relevant recommendations for governments and relevant supervisory departments. The integrated application of text mining and association rule mining serves to avoid uncertainty and subjectivity, and achieve good results proving their scientific nature as a feasible method in water transportation risk research.