Vulnerability analysis of global container shipping liner network based on main channel disruption

The Malacca Strait, the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal play an important role in the global container shipping. To study the impact of main channel interruption on the container shipping, we analysed statistical data on all routes operated by the top 100 global container liner companies and constructed a network model. We selected four topological metrics to measure the network’s connectivity and used the network weekly total shipping capacity and average shortest shipping time to measure the network’s transportation capacity and transportation time. The interruption of the main channel is simulated, and the changes in the metrics are analysed. The results indicated that the network’s vulnerability is sensitive to main channel interruption. If the Malacca Strait is interrupted, the network’s prosperity degree fall by almost half and the network’s transportation time increase by more than a quarter if the Suez Canal is interrupted. In addition, East Asian and European container liner shipping have more than 50% dependence on the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal. Moreover, the container transport time between ports in East Asia, Europe, and North America and the rest of the world increases by an average of 4–9 days in the main channel interruption.     

The impacts of strait and canal blockages on the transportation costs of the Chinese fleet in the shipping network

ABSTRACT

Straits and canals have always served as key nodes in shipping networks. The blockage of a strait or canal will lead to ship deviations and increased transportation costs. To measure this impact on the Chinese fleet, our study develops a mathematical model that is based on a programming formulation. Each strait or canal is assumed to be blocked in turn, and the increased transportation costs for the Chinese fleet in different scenarios are calculated and compared using the proposed programming formulation in order to measure the impact of the blocked strait or canal on the Chinese fleet. Larger increases in transportation costs have greater impacts on the fleet. The results show that a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz would have the greatest impact of all straits and canals; it would cause the Chinese fleet to lose a portion of its import and export market, and such a blockage cannot be addressed through ship deviations. Based upon increased transportation costs, the four straits or canals that would have the greatest impact if blocked are the Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal, the Sunda Strait and the English Channel.     

Private maritime security company (PMSC) in the Strait of Malacca

Recently, maritime security issues in the Strait of Malacca have been in the limelight. Statistics highlighting the risk of piracy faced by shipping in the Strait of Malacca and the possibility of a terrorist attack have led to an enhanced awareness of the need for heightened security. The declaration by Lloyd’s Joint War Committee (JWC) of the Strait as a “war risk area” has strengthened the perception that the littoral states have not done enough to make the Strait secure for international trade.     

Examining quick delivery at an affordable cost by the NSR/SCR-combined shipping in the age of Mega-ships

ABSTRACT

The Mega-ships, the maximum containerships represented by 20,000TEU-class (LOA:400m, Breadth: 60m, Draft: 16m) which are able to transit both the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal, have emerged in 2013, aiming at lower shipping cost by economy of scale. At the same time, they inevitably increased port calls in a rotation to collect more cargo demand, resulting in the longer transit time than ever before. Taking this trend into account, the authors proposed the quick delivery scenario between East Asia and Northwest Europe by the NSR (Northern Sea Route)/SCR (Suez Canal Route)-combined shipping, of which 4,000 TEU ice-class containership transits the NSR during the summer season and the SCR in the wintertime, based on a year-round scheduled operation. The quick delivery scenario gives the shorter transit time at an affordable shipping cost depending on the NSR navigable season length. However, the quick delivery scenario cannot avoid uncertainties in navigation especially via the NSR in the summer season, due to rough weather, sea ice, low visibility and icing in the icy water section of the NSR. The authors preliminarily concluded that a year-round scheduled operation of the NSR/SCR-combined shipping will be secured, if the practical navigation schedule is appropriately prepared.     

The environmental costs and economic implications of container shipping on the Northern Sea Route

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) has tremendous potential for ocean shipping between Europe and Asia due to the savings from shorter transit time and distance. However, the Arctic area is environmentally vulnerable and thus there is a trade-off between NSR’s impacts on environment vs. its economic benefits, especially when compared with the traditional route, such as through the Suez Canal Route (SCR). This study estimates the market shares of different transport modes and alternative shipping routes for the container transport market between Europe and Asia, and the resulting environmental costs. Our result suggests that NSR can be a viable option under the status quo. However, its environmental costs tend to be higher than SCR due to small ship size and low load factor in the present, thus the development of NSR would lead to worse environment outcomes. If these issues can be resolved, NSR can benefit from lower operational and environmental costs, which will lead to higher market share and social welfare. Otherwise, increased use of NSR may lead to higher total environment costs than the status quo.     

The implications of the re-establishment of direct links across the Taiwan Strait on the aviation industries in Greater China

This paper investigates the economic implications of the liberalization of air transportation across the Taiwan Strait to the region's aviation industries. Our analysis suggests that (1) liberalization has brought substantial benefits to airports and airlines in Mainland China and Taiwan. Negative impacts to Hong Kong are largely compensated by traffic increase in routes linking Mainland China. (2) In general, Taiwanese airports and airlines have benefited more from liberalization compared to airports and airlines on the mainland and Hong Kong. Such asymmetric effect is due to the larger size of the Mainland Chinese aviation market, which allows Taiwanese airlines to exploit network-related benefits. (3) Our investigation suggests that foreign hub carriers and medium sized Chinese airports will benefit most from China's future liberalizations.     

Market analysis and pricing policies for sea canals: the case of the Greek Corinth Canal

This paper develops a pricing policy for sea canals gained from the experience of a research programme on the Corinth Canal in Greece. The methodology followed is based on the dual role of the canal, as a private management company, operating in a competitive maritime market and as an instrument for the development and application of transport policy by the national authorities. The elaborated pricing strategy uses as inputs the canal's users profile as well as its competitors characteristics, that were determined through a survey conducted in the Corinth Canal market. The paper concludes with a policy that satisfies the goal of profit maximization and promotion of sustainable mobility at a national and international level.     

2008年世界船舶市场评述及展望

回顾了2008年世界船舶市场的发展，并对未来一两年的船舶市场进行了预测。2008年上半年船舶行业继续保持快速发展，但受美国金融危机影响，下半年船舶建造市场急速降温，成交缩减，船价开始下滑。未来世界经济发展前景尚不乐观、航运市场运力投放集中，因此，油船、散货船、集装箱船市场短期内仍将维持弱势，但海洋工程装置受影响程度相对较小。     

大型油船和散货船波激振动及其对结构疲劳寿命的影响

通过一艘大型油船和一艘大型散货船在水池中的波激振动模型试验,研究了规则波和不规则波中的船体波激振动现象,利用试验获得的短期海况下的高低频应力数据计算分析了波激振动对实船典型结构疲劳损伤的影响。在此基础上,通过对试验数据的规律性研究,提出了一种快速估算短期海况中船体波激振动特征及其对结构疲劳寿命影响的方法。利用该方法,结合几条典型航线的长期海况统计资料,研究了不同航线上船体波激振动对结构疲劳寿命的影响。研究结果认为:大型油船和散货船在压载状态下存在明显的波激振动现象,不同航线上的波激振动强度及其对结构疲劳寿命的影响差别较大;快速估算方法能够合理地评估船体在波激振动下的结构疲劳损伤,具有一定的工程实用价值。     

油船市场现状与策略

分析了油船市场的现状,明确指出国有油船运输缺口很大。认为目前我国已具备了发展油船船队的实力,提出了应采取的竞争策略,以适应国家经济建设和参与国际化市场竞争的需要。     

京杭运河江苏段航运水污染防治对策研究

苏北运河治污工程是南水北调东线治污工程中的重要组成部分，是一项功在当代、利在千秋的国家重大工程。文中从苏北运河航运水污染防治工作现状及存在的主要问题、今后一个时期拟采取的措施对策、下一步政策建议三方面．进行了详细的阐述，重点提出了苏北运河航运水污染防治工作的措施与对策。     

Valuing cargo flexibility in oil transportation

The seaborne oil transportation market is served by two main types of vessels—crude oil tankers and product tankers. Product tankers are designed to move refined oil products, yet they can also opportunistically carry ‘dirty’ products such as crude and heavy fuel oil, subject to the cost of tank cleaning when re-entering the clean products trade. We apply an entry-exit real option model with a stochastic freight rate differential to derive optimal triggers for switching between the two cargo types and estimate the value of the switching option. We show that the value of active switching has grown over time, and generally exceeds the additional construction cost of a product tanker. Our findings are important both from a practical point of view and for our understanding of market integration in the tanker freight market. Specifically, shipowners can use our model as a basis for optimizing chartering policy for clean product tankers. We also show that there are periods where the dirty market is persistently stronger, and discuss the possible reasons for such apparent inefficiencies.     

Estimation of capacity utilization in world shipping

The surplus of tonnage which has characterized the shipping industry for over a decade has severely affected profitability and investment opportunities in the industry. This has prompted various schemes to reduce the surplus. A proper assessment of the size of the surplus is an essential requirement for sound policy measures. This paper, which focuses on the tanker sector, examines selected methods used to compute surplus tanker tonnage and proposes other methods. It observes that methods currently used give estimates of surplus tonnage which are basically identical to those obtained by using alternative methods. It concludes that while from 1984 the surplus tanker tonnage has been declining, from 1986 the decline has been rather small and the volume of the surplus is likely to stabilize in the next few years at more or less current levels. However, the paper points out conceptual and practical problems of determining the appropriate base periods or base operating conditions upon which surplus tonnage may be computed.     

原油运输市场分析

分别概述了世界与中国的石油资源储量分布、可持续开采年数、不同地区的生产量与消耗量、以及产销平衡状况,由此派生的全球不同地区原油、成品油的进出口量、海运量与主要的海运航线,我国石油进口的主要来源和途径;分析了油轮的船型和船龄的分布,进而预测了世界上几种主要原油轮运力的供应、需求、船价与运价的发展趋势。这些分析和预测可以作为制定油轮发展的技术政策、战略、规划等宏观决策时的参考。     

Tanker cost elasticities revisited

This paper re-examines the literature on ship economies of scale, and presents the results of re-estimating a model of tanker costs for 2007. The results are interesting for two reasons. First, they are remarkably similar to those estimated for tankers in the 1960s and 1970s, despite the transformations in the tanker market since that time. Second, the results imply that tanker size is not driven by scale economies, but by factors that relate to demand and other considerations. This paper concludes by noting some limitations in the approach used in the study.     

Supply and demand of new oil tankers

This paper examines the world-wide supply and demand for new oil tankers. A simultaneous supply and demand model is developed and estimated using two-stage least squares techniques and empirical data from 1972 to 1983. The relationships between tanker newbuilding orders and prices, and other relevant market factors are analysed. Major factors affecting the tanker new building market are identified. The results indicate that: oil price and second-hand tanker price are predominant factors influencing future newbuilding demand; a moderate decrease in laid-up tonnage would not induce a significant increase in newbuilding orders; shipbuilding capacity is a more influential factor for the short-run supply of new tankers than shipbuilding cost. Technological change has also played an important role in the market.     

Discipline in British merchant ships

This paper describes a model which may be used in the evaluation of the relative effectiveness of policies used in the areas of ship chartering and the switching of combined carriers between the dry-cargo market and the tanker market. The policies for chartering and market switiching are expressed in the form of ‘desired proportions’ of the fleet operating in a particular charter-mode or a particular market. Graphical illustration of this form of expression of policies can be easily understood, so that alternative policies can be designed with relative case. The effectiveness of a particular from of policy under various freight market conditions can be determined from the model, the use of which is illustrated by its application to the deployment of the fleet of an hypothetical shipping company. It is assumed that the feedback connection between the company's actions and the market-place is negligible.     

A model for the evaluation of some shipping company decisions

This paper describes a model which may be used in the evaluation of the relative effectiveness of policies used in the areas of ship chartering and the switching of combined carriers between the dry-cargo market and the tanker market. The policies for chartering and market switiching are expressed in the form of 'desired proportions' of the fleet operating in a particular charter-mode or a particular market. Graphical illustration of this form of expression of policies can be easily understood, so that alternative policies can be designed with relative case. The effectiveness of a particular from of policy under various freight market conditions can be determined from the model, the use of which is illustrated by its application to the deployment of the fleet of an hypothetical shipping company. It is assumed that the feedback connection between the company's actions and the market-place is negligible.     

The expansion of the Panama Canal and its impact on global CO2 emissions from ships

As part of the discussions of the environmental effects of the expansion of the Canal through the construction of a third set of locks, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) began to consider measuring the impact of the project on global CO₂ emissions in 2006. The hypothesis PCA intends to investigate whether the third set of locks will prompt reductions in total world CO₂ emissions or not. The Canal's third set of locks will prevent reaching the saturation point, and will avoid diversion of traffic to potentially longer alternative routes, such as the Suez Canal and Cape Horn, thereby reducing distances and fuel consumption. In addition, the widening of the Canal may promote the construction of modern-type post-Panamax vessels, making transportation of freight more efficient through economies of scale. This white paper will initiate an exploratory research on the subject based on two possible scenarios: an existing Canal and an expanded Canal. Both scenarios will take physical distances, closest alternative routes, as well as fuel consumption of vessels and other relevant modes of transportation into consideration.     

Tanker forward freight agreements: the future for freight futures?

Since paper freight-hedging tools were introduced to counter volatile tanker freight rates, the hesitant uptake of tanker Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) has been attributed to traditional risk seeking propensities amongst tanker owners, naturally reluctant to hedge against risk. To test how far the well-documented generic determinants and incentives for corporate hedging could explain this hesitation in the tanker market, the attitudes of tanker owners and charterers towards freight hedging, risk and perceptions of FFAs, were surveyed. Although FFAs were widely viewed as an important development, some respondents were unaware of their function and a majority had not used them. The link between freight hedging activity and participants' risk aversion was not clear-cut, but with market liquidity critical to raising FFA usage improved technical education is essential to widespread acceptance