无锡市绿色循环低碳交通发展经验总结及思考

交通运输业是国民经济的基础性行业,也是能源消费和碳排放的主要行业之一。文中介绍了江苏省无锡市绿色循环低碳交通工作从起步至今取得的成绩,并总结了无锡市绿色循环低碳研究中心作为工作主体,在强化技术支撑,承担低碳交通与节能减排技术咨询服务工作中的一些经验、存在的问题,以及后续工作的展望。以期为其他城市绿色循环低碳交通工作提供有益的经验及借鉴。     

低碳经济背景下公路交通运输经济发展趋势研究

为实现公路交通运输经济的可持续发展,从优化交通结构、发展绿色交通技术、推进能源结构调整等方面分析低碳经济背景下公路交通运输经济发展趋势。在此基础上,提出低碳经济背景下公路交通运输经济的发展路径,包括建设绿色基础设施,促进资源循环利用;培育绿色物流企业,提升服务水平;建立碳排放管理体系,实现可持续发展等,以供参考。     

基于LEAP模型的佛山市交通碳排放研究

随着城市化的发展,珠三角城市交通能源消耗和碳排放迅速增长。为了探讨珠三角城市低碳交通的发展方向,本文采用LEAP模型,以珠三角的佛山市为例,模拟了不同情景下交通总量、陆运和水运的能源消耗、能源结构和碳排放由2011至2030年的变化情况;并据此提出了珠三角城市低碳交通发展对策。结果表明:水运在交通运输中所占份额逐渐被陆运替代,将形成陆运为主、水运为辅的交通模式;在交通总量、陆运和水运等的交通能耗及碳排放方面,低碳情景均小于基准情景,且呈水运小于陆运的态势;而清洁能源使用比重的增加则有利于交通领域的低碳发展。珠三角城市低碳交通发展需关注陆运交通,提高清洁能源在陆运中的使用比重,优化陆运与水运的交通布局,提高运输及能源利用效率。     

英美两国交通运输低碳发展的政策效果及启示

本文介绍英、美两国交通运输业碳排放相关情况,梳理各国交通低碳发展相关政策,评价其政策效果,并总结两国交通低碳发展政策的相关经验。     

城市交通碳排放计算方法比较研究

鉴于城市交通碳排放计算对低碳交通发展的重要性,本文综合国内外文献总结了四种计算城市交通碳排放的方法,并对不同方法的特点、优点和缺点进行详细对比,为充分掌握城市交通碳排放量及提出低碳措施提供依据。     

基于数字技术的交通隧道工程低碳发展理念与思考

在双碳目标的指引下，低碳化乃至零碳化成为交通隧道工程发展的必由之路，而数字化转型为此带来了机遇与挑战。智慧基础设施服务系统可从信息的采集、传输、处理、分析、表达与服务全过程为交通隧道工程的低碳化发展提供强有力的数字底座，大数据、云计算、区块链、人工智能等前沿技术可为交通隧道工程的全面勘察、动态设计、智能建造与高效运维注入新的发展活力。目前关于低碳隧道的相关研究还处于起步阶段，相关标准体系尚未形成，低碳与零碳隧道的发展目标、数字化赋能的具体对象与实现路径尚未明晰，相应的顶层设计理论也亟待深入研究。文章初步分析了交通隧道工程的碳排放特征，回顾了当下数字化技术在隧道工程全寿命期的成功应用，并在此基础上进一步梳理、展望了数字化技术在低碳隧道中的应用前景。未来，低碳隧道的发展应把握好后发优势，加强数字化与绿色低碳理念的深度融合，在全面提升交通隧道工程数字化水平的同时，推进交通隧道行业碳中和目标的稳步实现。     

公路领域新能源利用是交通运输绿色发展的实践创新

正2014年习近平总书记提出能源革命,十九大明确了要建设清洁低碳安全高效的现代能源体系。交通运输行业坚持创新发展,不断推进新能源的应用。公路是交通运输行业的主要领域。公路领域如何在国家生态文明绿色发展理念的引领下,推动新能源使用的变革创新,有效实现节能降碳,支撑交通运输绿色循环低碳发展,将加快成为绿色交通的重要课题。对此,记者采访了有关专家,并整理其观点以飨读者。黄全胜:公路领域有必要实现从能源需     

城镇化视角的国外低碳交通发展经验研究

中国城镇化发展进入快速增长期,面临着巨大的资源和环境压力,交通运输作为基础性、服务性行业发挥着支撑和引导作用,迫切要求在新型城镇化进程中走低碳交通运输发展之路。发达国家在上世纪70年代基本完成了城镇化快速发展,积累了丰富的低碳交通发展经验,为我国新型城镇化快速发展阶段的低碳交通运输发展提供了重要的经验借鉴。本文结合世界各国经济发展水平和交通碳排放数据研究提出四类经济与交通发展模式,分析了各国城镇化与机动化发展特征,研究分析了国外典型国家不同空间层次上的低碳交通运输发展模式特征。从运输结构优化、公交优先发展、管理政策等角度提出了国外在城镇化背景下低碳交通运输发展的经验启示与政策建议。     

四川省公路水路货运能耗及碳排放趋势预测方法研究

为充分掌握交通运输业的能耗和碳排放量,本文首先利用二次平滑指数法对四川省的GDP值进行预测,再利用货运量与GDP的相关性预测出四川省公路水路货运量,其次根据相关统计数据及典型企业的调研数据得到历年公路水路货运量能耗和碳排放强度,分别对基准情境和绿色情境下的能耗和碳排放强度进行预测,最后得到不同情境下四川省公路水路货运能耗和碳排放量及节能减排趋势,为低碳交通的发展奠定了鉴定的基础。     

基于碳中和目标下公路建设的经验观察与分析

本文从低碳环保理念出发,首先提出了基于碳中和目标下的公路工程建设的理念,通过绿色公路的低碳建设对其进行诠释,从公路建设的不同阶段分析了低碳公路建设的要点,并针对目前进行低碳建设所面临的一些难题,提出了几点解决措施,从而大幅度降低公路建设过程中的碳排放,实现碳中和目标下的交通强国建设。     

From willingness to action: Do push-pull-mooring factors matter for shifting to green transportation?

Motivating individuals to choose green transportation is becoming increasingly important. Based on push-pull-mooring framework, this study aims to explore how push, pull and mooring factors foster individual’s willingness to shift to green transportation. This study also analyzes the role of information provision in narrowing the gap between shifting willingness and behavior. The findings revealed that push factors, including perceived environmental threats and perceived inconvenience, drive individual’s mode-shift away from private cars, whereas the pull factors, including green transport policies and campaigns, and green transport system attract individual’s mode-shift to green transportation. Moreover, the mooring factor, namely inertia, not only negatively affects individual’s shifting willingness but also negatively moderates the effects of push and pull factors on individual’s shifting willingness. In addition, shifting willingness positively affects the shifting behavior and the information provision positively moderates the relationship among them. Such findings are vital to achieve the realization of China’s low-carbon goals.     

Decomposition analysis of energy-related carbon emissions from the transportation sector in Beijing

In the process of rapid development and urbanization in Beijing, identifying the potential factors of carbon emissions in the transportation sector is an important prerequisite to controlling carbon emissions. Based on the expanded Kaya identity, we built a multivariate generalized Fisher index (GFI) decomposition model to measure the influence of the energy structure, energy intensity, output value of per unit traffic turnover, transportation intensity, economic growth and population size on carbon emissions from 1995 to 2012 in the transportation sector of Beijing. Compared to most methods used in previous studies, the GFI model possesses the advantage of eliminating decomposition residuals, which enables it to display better decomposition characteristics (Ang et al., 2004). The results show: (i) The primary positive drivers of carbon emissions in the transportation sector include the economic growth, energy intensity and population size. The cumulative contribution of economic growth to transportation carbon emissions reaches 334.5%. (ii) The negative drivers are the transportation intensity and energy structure, while the transportation intensity is the main factor that restrains transportation carbon emissions. The energy structure displays a certain inhibition effect, but its inhibition is not obvious. (iii) The contribution rate of the output value of per unit traffic turnover on transportation carbon emissions appears as a flat “M”. To suppress the growth of carbon emissions in transportation further, the government of Beijing should take the measures of promoting the development of new energy vehicles, limiting private vehicles’ increase and promoting public transportation, evacuating non-core functions of Beijing and continuingly controlling population size.     

交通运输能耗与排放统计监测平台及应用研究

在我国交通运输行业节能减排的背景下,本文以交通运输行业能耗特点与统计监测方法为基础,建立涵盖了公路客运、公路货运、城市公交、城市出租、水路运输、港口生产等行业的能耗碳排统计监测系统,分析了省级交通运输能耗与排放特点,明确了能耗数据统计对象与内容,并对能耗数据采集的方法进行了研究,建立了省级交通运输能耗统计监测系统,并以辽宁省交通运输为依托,对全省交通运输行业能耗统计监测系统进行了验证与应用,同时也为交通运输行业的节能减排提供了决策支撑和数据支持。     

Prospects for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States and Japan: A general equilibrium analysis

The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) may offer a potential near term, low-carbon alternative to today’s gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. A representative vehicle technology that runs on electricity in addition to conventional fuels was introduced into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as a perfect substitute for internal combustion engine (ICE-only) vehicles in two likely early-adopting markets, the United States and Japan. We investigate the effect of relative vehicle cost and all-electric range on the timing of PHEV market entry in the presence and absence of an advanced cellulosic biofuels technology and a strong (450 ppm) economy-wide carbon constraint. Vehicle cost could be a significant barrier to PHEV entry unless fairly aggressive goals for reducing battery costs are met. If a low-cost PHEV is available we find that its adoption has the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions, refined oil demand, and under a carbon policy the required CO₂ price in both the United States and Japan. The emissions reduction potential of PHEV adoption depends on the carbon intensity of electric power generation. Thus, the technology is much more effective in reducing CO₂ emissions if adoption occurs under an economy-wide cap and trade system that also encourages low-carbon electricity generation.     

Assessing carbon reduction effects toward the mode shift of green transportation system

Plans are underway to introduce green transportation systems at Taiwan's famous scenic spot, Sun Moon Lake, to reduce carbon emissions. Carbon reduction effects after changing the current lake tour modes are assessed using a nested logit model with a stated preference survey, which investigated tourists' choice preferences. The empirical results reveal that the modes of electric bus, electric vehicle sharing, and bike are clustered in the same competitive group. Travel cost, in‐vehicle travel time, and out‐vehicle travel time are found to be statistically significant with the expected negative effects. In particular, the attribute of carbon reduction is only significant for green tourists, who are willing to pay US$ 3.5/kg of carbon saved. The result indicates that more efficient carbon reduction is possible by restricting the usage of gasoline vehicles rather than improving the service levels of low‐carbon modes. Notably, the effect of parking charges on emission reduction is equal to the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by 4511 trees per day. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decouple transport CO2 emissions from China’s economic expansion: A temporal-spatial analysis

China’s transport industry is energy intensive and high-polluting. While with the surging urbanization and the development of service industry, China’s economic relies more and more on the transport sector. Therefore, exploring the relationship between transport energy-related carbon emission (TECE) and economic development is crucial to the realization of China’s “Post Paris” mitigation target. The paper carries out a decoupling research between TECE and Gross domestic product (GDP) at both national level and province level based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis with the extended Kaya identity and Tapio decoupling model. The model quantifies eight factors’ effects on the relationship with focusing on external macro socio-economic related factors (i.e., spatial pattern, urbanization, per capita service industry output value, reciprocal of the service industry’s share of GDP, and demographic variable) successfully. The key conclusions are indicated as follows: (1) the national decoupling status was extensive coupling during 2004–2010 and then weak decoupling during 2010–2016. The progress can be attributed to the decline of energy intensity. (2) Per capita service output was always the prominent factor to promote carbon emissions growth in different time periods and provinces with inhibiting the advancement of decoupling process, followed by urbanization. (3) Scenario analysis shows that with the continuous growth of traffic demand and the promotion of urbanization, improving energy efficiency has become the key link to realize the decoupling between China’s TECE and its economy.     

Energy consumption in China’s logistics industry: A decomposition analysis using the LMDI approach

The logistics industry plays a critical role in boosting China’s economic development, although at significant externality costs. Using the 1980–2010 data, we examine the historical evolution of energy consumption in China’s logistics industry. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method was used to analyze the key factors that drove the chronicle changes in logistics energy consumption in China. Changes in energy consumption of China’s logistics industry are attributed to growth in logistics activity, modal shift in freight transportation, increases in transport intensity, and overall improvements in energy intensity: (1) China’s logistics industry enjoyed fast growth with an average annual growth rate of 9.65% from 1980 to 2010. Increase in logistics activity has been the major force driving up logistics energy consumption (accounting for 48.8% of logistics energy increase); (2) Logistics energy consumption increased by 22.91 times, averaging at 11.9% growth per year. Fuel consumption in highway transportation has become more dominant in logistics energy consumption; (3) While changes in logistics activities, transportation modes and transport intensity pushed up logistics energy consumptions, improvements in energy intensity helped significantly to curb the energy rise in China’s logistics industry.     

城市绿色交通发展历程及趋势分析

绿色交通理论是基于可持续发展理念而提出的交通领域的全新理念。本文在总结绿色交通发展历程的基础上,系统整理绿色交通理论体系的内涵。借鉴国内外绿色交通既有发展实践,提出我国绿色交通体系未来的发展方向。