Impact of freshwater on a subarctic coastal ecosystem under seasonal sea ice (southeastern Hudson Bay, Canada). I. Interannual variability and predicted global warming influence on river plume dynamics and sea ice

Analysis of sea ice cover, runoff and air temperature observations in Hudson Bay shows marked interannual variability. This variability is thought to play a major role in determining overall productivity of the coastal ecosystem by changes to river plume extent, under-ice light conditions and nutrient levels during spring. Extensive field work off the Great Whale River in southeastern Hudson Bay has shown the importance of freshwater discharge, sea ice cover and meteorological forcing on the production of under-ice microalgae and the success of first feeding in fish larvae.Recent global climate model (GCM) results for a doubling of present atmospheric carbon dioxide indicate increases of both air temperature and precipitation in the Hudson Bay area. Predictions based on GCM results are used to estimate future changes to the sea ice and runoff regime. Sea ice breakup in the offshore is predicted to occur about one month earlier than presently. Estimates of the spring freshet in the Great Whale River indicate it will also advance by approximately one month. Onset of the spring freshet will occur about one month before Hudson Bay ice breakup, similar to present. A predicted reduction of about 35% in maximum sea ice thickness will lead to an increase in the ice-ocean interface irradiance and a decrease in melt water input to the Hudson Bay surface waters. These results are used in a discussion of potential effects of global climate change on northern coastal marine environments.     

Winter–spring dynamics in sea-ice carbon cycling in the coastal Arctic Ocean

An understanding of microbial interactions in first-year sea ice on Arctic shelves is essential for identifying potential responses of the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle to changing sea-ice conditions. This study assessed dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC, POC), exopolymeric substances (EPS), chlorophyll a, bacteria and protists, in a seasonal (24 February to 20 June 2004) investigation of first-year sea ice and associated surface waters on the Mackenzie Shelf. The dynamics of and relationships between different sea-ice carbon pools were investigated for the periods prior to, during and following the sea-ice-algal bloom, under high and low snow cover. A predominantly heterotrophic sea-ice community was observed prior to the ice-algal bloom under high snow cover only. However, the heterotrophic community persisted throughout the study with bacteria accounting for, on average, 44% of the non-diatom particulate carbon biomass overall the study period. There was an extensive accumulation of sea-ice organic carbon following the onset of the ice-algal bloom, with diatoms driving seasonal and spatial trends in particulate sea-ice biomass. DOC and EPS were also significant sea-ice carbon contributors such that sea-ice DOC concentrations were higher than, or equivalent to, sea-ice-algal carbon concentrations prior to and following the algal bloom, respectively. Sea-ice-algal carbon, DOC and EPS-carbon concentrations were significantly interrelated under high and low snow cover during the algal bloom (r values ≥ 0.74, p < 0.01). These relationships suggest that algae are primarily responsible for the large pools of DOC and EPS-carbon and that similar stressors and/or processes could be involved in regulating their release. This study demonstrates that DOC can play a major role in organic carbon cycling on Arctic shelves.     

Numerical simulations of seasonal and interannual variability of the Black Sea thermohaline circulation

The Black Sea general circulation is simulated by a primitive equation model with active free surface. The forcing is seasonally variable and is based on available climatic data. The model reproduces the main features of the Black Sea circulation, including the river discharge effects on the mean sea level and the Bosphorus outflow. Model results show that the simulated sea surface elevation increases in spring over the whole sea, reaching a maximum in the Danube delta area. In the same region, a minimum is observed in winter. The amplitude of the seasonal oscillations (about 8–12 cm over the whole basin) is of the same order of magnitude as the maximum horizontal variations (about 15–18 cm between the coastal areas and the basin interior). This strong signal formed mostly by river discharges, along with the seasonal variability in the other forcing functions and the local dynamics creates a well-pronounced interannual variability. The performance of the model in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability is critically analyzed, with a special attention on the cold intermediate water formation and the circulation in the upper 150 m. The simulations demonstrate that the source of intermediate waters is on the shelf, and that the water mass in the core of cold intermediate layer changes with time as a response to the periodic forcing at sea surface. This type of variability is characterized by pronounced interannual changes, proving that important differences could exist between water mass structure in different years, even when using identical atmospheric forcings each year.     

The Mediterranean Sea, coastal and deep-sea signatures of climatic and environmental changes

At great scales of time and space, the dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea, a concentration basin, are mainly linked to its freshwater budget. This budget is subject to evolutions due to man's use of freshwater and to climatic changes affecting precipitation and/or evaporation. Marine dynamics and Atlantic, atmospheric and terrestrial inputs are strong constraints for the geochemical behaviour of the Mediterranean Sea. From measurements made during the last decades in the deep western water, it appeared that temperature, salinity, nutrients and trace metal concentrations were changing with time. In spite of its depth, the Mediterranean Sea looks like a coastal ocean, according to its coast length, watershed and number of inhabitants and to its fast response to climatic and environmental changes. The changes discovered in deep homogeneous waters are signatures of evolutions occurred in the surface layer. But in this layer and particularly in coastal waters, climatic and/or environmental trends may be masked by seasonal and interannual variabilities of not only physical and chemical characteristics but also climatic forcing or anthropic inputs. Analyses of river runoff, atmospheric inputs or climatic trends together with marine evolutions indicate constraints concerning probable changes in the coastal sea and/or in the surface water and processes involved at the interfaces. Moreover, changes observed in coastal or deep-water constitute new constraints for the modelling of the marine circulation and the transfer of matter.     

Biogeochemistry of sulfur in a sediment core from the west-central Baltic Sea: Evidence from stable isotopes and pyrite textures

The biogeochemistry of the sulfur cycle in a ca. 5-m-long sediment core from the eastern slope (221 m water depth) of the Landsort Deep in the west-central Baltic Sea was investigated by analyzing the solid phase records of sulfur isotopes and pyrite textures, besides selected main and minor elements. The sediments were deposited during post-glacial history of the Baltic Sea when the basin experienced alteration of brackish (Yoldia Sea, Littorina Sea) and freshwater (Baltic Ice Lake, Ancylus Lake) conditions. The stable isotopic composition of total sulfur was analyzed as a function of depth. In selected samples pyrite (FeS₂), greigite (Fe₃S₄), and barite (BaSO₄) fractions were separated for isotope analyses. Pyrite textures were analyzed by SEM and optical microscopy.Microbial reactions associated with the oxidation of organic matter resulted in assemblages of authigenic sulfide minerals which for the post-Ancylus Lake brackish water environment are dominated by pyrite and for freshwater environments by Fe-monosulfides. The sulfur isotopic composition of the brackish water Littorina Sea sediments (δ³⁴S between −40 and −27‰ vs. V-CDT) is believed to be determined by cellular sulfate reduction rates and reactions involving intermediate sulfur species. The availability of reactive iron and decomposable organic matter as well as sedimentation rate and the chemocline position are important variables upon the δ³⁴S values of sulfides in brackish water environment. The syn-depositional abundance of sulfur and organic matter, and transport of dissolved sulfur species vs. rates of microbial reactions determine δ³⁴S in the freshwater sediments. The upper part of the Ancylus Lake sediments is sulfidized by downward diffusing H₂S and/or sulfate from overlying brackish water sediments. Minor concretionary barite formation in the freshwater sediments is most likely due to the reaction of pore water sulfate diffusing downward from brackish water sediments with barium desorbed from freshwater sediments. The size distribution of pyrite framboids in the brackish sediments indicates that the formation mainly occurred from anoxic pore waters, although some pyrite formation in an anoxic water column cannot be excluded.     

Exchange of carbon by an upwelling filament off Cape Ghir (NW Africa)

We have studied the physicochemical and biological structure of a permanent filament off Cape Ghir (31°N) and estimated the transport of organic matter associated with it. The seaward filament exported coastal upwelled water, with low temperature and salinity and high organic matter, to the open ocean even in the absence of upwelling-favorable conditions. The estimated flux of excess organic carbon (the nonrefractory pool) expressed in annual basis yielded a value of 3.1×10⁹ kg C, from which 90% was transported as dissolved organic carbon. This flux represents about 63% of the average annual primary production for the region of study. We conclude that the net-offshore transport may contribute to the enrichment of offshore oligotrophic waters throughout the year, partly explaining the metabolic imbalance found in open ocean waters of the subtropical Northeast Atlantic.     

Concentration of floating biogenic material in convergence zones

Some organisms that live just below the sea surface (the neuston) are known more as a matter of curiosity than as critical players in biogeochemical cycles. The hypothesis of this work is that their existence implies that they receive some food from an upward flux of organic matter. The behaviour of these organisms and of the associated organic matter, hereafter mentioned as floating biogenic material (FBM) is explored using a global physical–biogeochemical coupled model, in which its generation is fixed to 1% of primary production, and decay rate is of the order of 1 month. The model shows that the distribution of FBM should depart rapidly from that of primary production, and be more sensitive to circulation patterns than to the distribution of primary production. It is trapped in convergence areas, where it reaches concentrations larger by a factor 10 than in divergences, thus enhancing and inverting the contrast between high and low primary productivity areas. Attention is called on the need to better understand the biogeochemical processes in the first meter of the ocean, as they may impact the distribution of food for fishes, as well as the conditions for air–sea exchange and for the interpretation of sea color.     

Distribution of total dissolved and C18 extractable copper and nickel in relation to dissolved organic matter sources, in the Thermaikos Gulf (eastern Mediterranean)

Organically complexed and total dissolved copper and nickel were measured in the Thermaikos Gulf waters during winter 1998. Total concentrations ranged from 1.13 nmol/L to 7.02 nmol/L for copper and from 3.04 nmol/L to 9.50 nmol/L for nickel. The C18 Sep-Pak solid phase extraction technique was used in order to determine the amount of copper and nickel complexed with the hydrophobic component of the dissolved organic matter (DOM). Up to 32.4% of total copper and 4.57% of total nickel were complexed with the DOM extracted by C18. By applying HPLC analysis it was shown that the majority of the organic compounds retained by C18 had intermediate to low polarity. Using the absorbance ratio a₂₅₄/a₄₃₆ it was possible to unravel that humic substances of both terrestrial and marine origin were present in the Thermaikos Gulf and their distribution followed the dilution of riverine waters. Moreover our results indicated that organic binding of both Cu and Ni was stronger with the hydrophobic compounds of terrestrial origin than with those of marine origin.     

Long-term sea surface temperature baselines—time series, spatial covariation and implications for biological processes

Coastal areas such as estuaries, bays and fjords usually have hydrographic characteristics (e.g., temperature, salinity) which differ from those at larger spatial scales and in offshore areas. The differences can arise if the areas are subject to different climatic forcing or if they are relatively isolated from each other due to topographic and ocean circulation features which inhibit advective inputs of water mass properties. Local differences in hydrographic conditions can therefore potentially limit the applicability of existing long time series of coastally monitored temperatures for addressing questions at large spatial scales, such as the response of species distributions and phenologies to climate change. In this study we investigate the spatial synchrony of long-term sea surface temperatures in the North Sea–Baltic Sea region as measured daily at four coastal sites (Marsdiep, Netherlands; Torungen, Norway; Skagens Reef, Denmark; and Christiansø, Denmark) and in several large offshore areas. All time series, including two series reconstructed and intercalibrated for this study (Skagens Reef and Christiansø, Denmark), began during 1861–1880 and continue until at least 2001. Temperatures at coastal sites co-varied strongly with each other and with opportunistically measured offshore temperatures despite separation distances between measuring locations of 20–1200 km. This covariance is probably due to the influence of large-scale atmospheric processes on regional temperatures and is consistent with the known correlation radius of atmospheric fluctuations (ca. 1000 km). Differences (e. g, long-term trends, amplitude of seasonal variations) between coastal temperatures and those measured in adjacent offshore areas varied nonrandomly over time and were often significantly autocorrelated up to 2 years. These differences suggest that spatial variations in physical oceanographic phenomena and sampling heterogeneities associated with opportunistic sampling could affect perceptions of biological responses to temperature fluctuations. The documentation that the coastally measured temperatures co-vary with those measured opportunistically in offshore areas suggests that the coastal data, which have been measured daily using standardized methods and instruments, contain much of the variability seen at larger spatial scales. We conclude that both types of time series can facilitate assessments of how species and ecosystems have responded to past temperature changes and how they may react to future temperature changes.     

Sea level and Eddy Kinetic Energy variability in the Bay of Biscay, inferred from satellite altimeter data

Twelve years (1993–2005) of altimetric data, combining different missions (ERS-1/2, TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Envisat), are used to analyse sea level and Eddy Kinetic Energy variability in the Bay of Biscay at different time-scales. A specific processing of coastal data has been applied, to remove erroneous artefacts. Likewise, an optimal interpolation has been used, to create a series of regional Sea Level Anomaly maps, merging data sets from two satellites.The sea level presents a trend of about 2.7 mm/year, which is within the averaged values of sea level rise in the global ocean. Frequency spectra show that the seasonal cycle is the main time-scale affecting the sea level and Eddy Kinetic Energy variability. The maximum sea level occurs in October, whilst the minimum is observed in April. The steric effect is the cause of this annual cycle. The Northern French shelf/slope presents intense variability which is likely due to internal tides. Some areas of the ocean basin are also characterised by intense variability, due to the presence of eddies.The Eddy Kinetic Energy, in turn, is higher from December to May, than during the rest of the year and presents a weak positive trend from April 1995 to April 2005. Several documented mesoscale events, occurring at the end of 1997 and during 1998, are analysed. Altimetry maps prove to be a useful tool to monitor swoddy-like eddies from their birth to their decay, as well as the inflow of seasonal slope water current into the southeastern corner of the Bay of Biscay.     

Protist entrapment in newly formed sea ice in the Coastal Arctic Ocean

Protist abundance and taxonomic composition were determined in four development stages of newly formed sea ice (new ice, nilas, young ice and thin first-year ice) and in the underlying surface waters of the Canadian Beaufort Sea from 30 September to 19 November 2003. Pico- and nanoalgae were counted by flow cytometry whereas photosynthetic and heterotrophic protists ≥ 4 µm were identified and counted by inverted microscopy. Protists were always present in sea ice and surface water samples throughout the study period. The most abundant protists in sea ice and surface waters were cells < 4 µm. They were less abundant in sea ice (418–3051 × 10³ cells L^− 1) than in surface waters (1393–5373 × 10³ cells L^− 1). In contrast, larger protists (≥ 4 µm) were more abundant in sea ice (59–821 × 10³ cells L^− 1) than in surface waters (22–256 × 10³ cells L^− 1). These results suggest a selective incorporation of larger cells into sea ice. The ≥ 4 µm protist assemblage was composed of a total number of 73 taxa, including 12 centric diatom species, 7 pennate diatoms, 11 dinoflagellates and 16 flagellates. The taxonomic composition in the early stage of ice formation (i.e., new ice) was very similar to that observed in surface waters and was composed of a mixed population of nanoflagellates (Prasinophyceae and Prymnesiophyceae), diatoms (mainly Chaetoceros species) and dinoflagellates. In older stages of sea ice (i.e., young ice and thin first-year ice), the taxonomic composition became markedly different from that of the surface waters. These older ice samples contained relatively fewer Prasinophyceae and more unidentified nanoflagellates than the younger ice. Diatom resting spores and dinoflagellate cysts were generally more abundant in sea ice than in surface waters. However, further studies are needed to determine the importance of this winter survival strategy in Arctic sea ice. This study clearly shows the selective incorporation of large cells (≥ 4 µm) in newly formed sea ice and the change in the taxonomic composition of protists between sea ice and surface waters as the fall season progresses.     

Dissolved organic matter in shelf waters off the Ría de Vigo (NW Iberian upwelling system)

Net in situ production and export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) have been studied in shelf waters off the Ría de Vigo (NW Spain), as part of a comprehensive hydrographic survey carried out from September 1994 to September 1995 with a fortnight periodicity. DOC and DON correlated well (r=+0.78), the slope of the regression line being 12.0±0.7 mol-C mol-N⁻¹, about twice the Redfieldian slope of particulate organic matter, 6.5±0.2 mol-C mol-N⁻¹ (r=+0.95). Labile DOC and DON accumulated in the upper 50 m during the upwelling season (March–September), mainly after prolonged periods of wind relaxation, when horizontal flows were reduced. This labile material represented 50% and 35% of the total (dissolved+particulate) organic carbon and nitrogen susceptible of microbial utilisation, which assert the key contribution of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to the export of new primary production in the NW Iberian upwelling system. This surface excess in shelf waters appeared to be formed into the highly productive Ría de Vigo (a large coastal indentation) at net rates of 4.4 μM-C d⁻¹ and 1.3 μM-C d⁻¹ in the inner and outer segments of the embayment respectively, and subsequently exported to the shelf. Once in the shelf, simple dilution with the inert DOM pool of recently upwelled Eastern North Atlantic Central Water (ENACW) occurred. Eventually, the DOM excess produced during the upwelling season is exported to the adjacent open ocean waters by the coastal circulation. Conversely, during the unproductive downwelling season (October–February), the lowest DOC and DON levels were recorded and export was prevented by the characteristic downwelling front associated to the seasonal poleward slope current.     

Dissolved organic matter studies in enclosed systems: Application of Hydrophobic fractionation for the assessment of organic nitrogen dynamics

The evolution of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in a non-axenic batch culture of the marine diatom Thalassiosira tumida was studied by hydrophobic fractionation during a three month experiment. DOM was fractionated with XAD-2 resin into hydrophobic (acid and neutral, “humic”) and hydrophilic fractions. The combined amino acid contents of unfractionated filtered seawater, XAD-fractions and particulate material were determined during the growth, stationary and degradation phases of the culture, and variations related to changes in dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) in XAD-fractions, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, algal and bacterial biomass. XAD-fractionation enabled the discrimination of simultaneously ocurring release and uptake of organic nitrogenous compounds: During the diatom growth there was a net increase of tolal DON concentrations, which was mostly accounted for by the hydrophilic fraction. A concurrent heterotrophic uptake of combined amino acids and other non-amino acid organic nitrogen was discernible by the decrease of their concentrations in the hydrophobic fractions. In the stationary phase, during the prevailing net consumption of total DON, the production of algal exudates could be detected in the hydrophobic fractions, while uptake mainly involved non-amino acid organic nitrogen from the hydrophilic fraction. During the degradation phase, after two months part of the particulate amino acid pool was transformed into hydrophilic DON, which in contrast to the stationary phase, was not adequate for supporting sustained bacterial growth. This suggests that the generation of recalcitrant substances may begin in the hydrophilic fraction of DOM. A slight increase of the hydrophobic acid fraction was indicative of the incipient formation of humic substances. XAD-2 was able to adsorb substances from fast changing DOM pools and thus should be a useful tool in studies concerned with phytoplankton and bacterial dynamics.     

Carbon flux in ice–ocean–plankton systems of the Bellingshausen Sea during a period of ice retreat

Most analyses of marine microbial systems in the seasonally ice covered areas of the Southern Ocean have been based on data from the major embayment areas of the Ross and Weddell Seas. In this study data were collected at stations covering a range of regimes from full ice cover through to open water in the Bellingshausen Sea. A major feature of the production system was a rapid retreat of the ice-edge, which uncoupled the marginal ice zone from a phytoplankton bloom which remained associated with a frontal system. This bloom was maintained, and probably initiated, in an unusual environment generated by the interaction between the marginal ice zone and the front. Size-based analyses of the microbial system were derived for ice-covered, recently ice-covered and open water sites. Estimates of standing stocks and key rate processes were combined to produce a single food web network for each station. The under-ice system was one of low production and low recycling but apparently high retention. As the ice retreated the microbial systems to the north began to develop, but these were constrained by grazing pressure. The bloom in the area appeared to be sustained even though estimated losses were far higher than production, although the high sedimentation losses expected were not observed. The carbon flow networks are discussed in relation to the environmental changes and the interaction of the marginal ice zone and the frontal system appears crucial to the phytoplankton. Microzooplankton grazing is implicated as a major controlling factor. The local microbial dynamics are strongly influenced by material which was produced at an earlier time and somewhere else in the Southern Ocean.     

Variability of snow and ice thermal, physical and optical properties pertinent to sea ice algae biomass during spring

Changes in the thermal, physical and optical properties of the snow–sea ice system and feedbacks between various temporal and spatial scales affect accumulation of microalgae at the sea ice bottom and are the focus of this research. During the spring transition period, May 4 to June 9, 2002, we closely monitored atmospheric conditions and properties of the snow–sea ice system, including thermal, physical and optical properties of the snow cover (e.g., temperature, grain size, light attenuation), ice thickness and salinity, and biomass of bottom ice algae. Results show that snowdrift size averaged 31.2 by 10.6 m with a depth range of 2 to 45 cm. Snowpacks also varied in age, distinguished by coincident peaks of snow salinity and grain size and a lower PAR extinction coefficient. Spatial variability of the snowpack was superimposed by temporal variability associated with seasonal snow–ice melt and wind redistribution of snow. Maximum biomass of ice algae was observed under intermediate snow covers. Under thin snow covers, algae biomass declined steadily coincident with seasonal warming and desalination of the ice cover. Under thick snow covers, algae biomass was negatively correlated with snow depth. These results suggest that thin snow covers were associated with a thermal effect causing sloughing of algae, whereas under deep snow, algae were still light limited and thermally insulated from the warming atmosphere. Our results highlight the importance of snow cover history on the sea ice system operating below. Furthermore, in the context of current climate change scenarios, shifts in snow depth would result in decreases of ice algae biomass.     

A numerical transport model for predicting the distributions of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in the southern North Sea: the sensitivity of model results to the uncertainties in the magnitudes of metal inputs

A new transport model for metals (named NOSTRADAMUS) has been developed to predict concentrations and distributions of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in the southern North Sea. NOSTRADAMUS is comprised of components for water, inorganic and organic suspended particulate matter transport; a primary production module contributes to the latter component. Metal exchange between dissolved (water) and total suspended particulate matter (inorganic + organic) phases is driven by distribution coefficients. Transport is based on an existent 2-D vertically integrated model, incorporating a 35 × 35 km grid. NOSTRADAMUS is largely driven by data obtained during the Natural Environment Research Council North Sea Project (NERC NSP). The sensitivity of model predictions to uncertainties in the magnitudes of metal inputs has been tested. Results are reported for a winter period (January 1989) when plankton production was low. Simulated ranges in concentrations in regions influenced by the largest inflows, i.e. the NE English coast and the Southern Bight, are similar to the ranges in the errors of the concentrations estimated at the northern and southern open sea boundaries of the model. Inclusion of uncertainties with respect to atmospheric (up to ± 54%) and riverine (± 30%) inputs makes little difference to the calculated concentrations of both dissolved and particulate fractions within the southern North Sea. When all the errors associated with the inputs are included there is good agreement between computed and observed concentrations, and that for dissolved and particulate Cd, Cu and Zn, and dissolved Ni and Pb, many of the observations fall within, or are close to, the range of values generated by the model. For particulate Pb, model simulations predict concentrations of the right order, but do not reproduce the large scatter in actual concentrations, with simulated concentrations showing a bias towards lower values compared to those observed. A factor which could have contributed to observed concentrations, and which is not included in the model, is considered to be a substantial benthic input of dissolved lead during this winter period, coupled to a rapid and extensive scavenging of the dissolved lead to particles. Significant reductions in riverine and aeolian inputs of total Cd and Cu of 70% and 50%, respectively, consistent with aims of North Sea Conferences, are predicted to lead to minor decreases (~ 10%) in water column concentrations of dissolved and particulate Cd and Cu, except near river sources, where maximum reductions of ~ 30–40% may occur.     

GIS-Based Coastal Behavior Modeling and Simulation of Potential Land and Property Loss: Implications of Sea-Level Rise at Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach,Sydney (Australia)

Rising sea level potentially poses a threat to many coastal areas, thereby possibly affecting coastal environments, including human assets. Taking into account the precau--tionary principle demanded at the Framework Convention for Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, coastal managers and planners are required to evaluate the possibility of both physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise. However, long-term and cost-intensive data capture is often not affordable for a first estimation of general trends. To determine physical and economic impacts on a spatial scale of less than 10 km, a rapid and low-cost method is required. A Geographic Information System (GIS), in combination with readily available data and two coastal behaviour models (the Bruun-GIS Model and the Aggradation Model) was applied to simulate shoreline recession caused by a rise in sea level. In addition, the potential impacts of a 50-year design storm were considered in conjunction with sea-level rise. The monetary vulnerability was assessed and combined with the simulated recession rates. This procedure provides a first estimate on the potential risk a locality (here Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach) may face due to the impacts of sea-level rise and/or coastal storms. Overall, the modelling outcome suggests that long-term erosion problems associated with rising sea level are less significant in comparison with those impacts associated with short-term coastal storm events for Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach.     

Hydrological changes in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to changes in the freshwater budget: A numerical modelling study

The response of the Mediterranean Sea and the various sub-basins to changes in the freshwater budget are investigated in a process-oriented study, using the POM model. The model is first integrated using values of the Nile and Ebro rivers runoff, as well as of the Dardanelles freshwater input, typical of the fifties. The model reaches a steady state representative of that existing in the Mediterranean prior to the major damming period after 90 years of integration. Then the model is integrated using the reduced river runoff values typical of the after-damming period. The additional impact of decadal scale trends in the precipitation rate as well as of intense surface cooling periods/events on the thermohaline circulation during the last 40 years were also examined. The model results show that the dramatic reduction of the Nile freshwater input and to a lesser extent the reduction of the freshwater input from the Dardanelles Straits induced a large increase in the sea surface salinity in the Aegean and Levantine basins in the late sixties/early seventies, in agreement with observations. Furthermore, the Ebro runoff reduction during the same period further enhanced the salinity increase in the Levantine basin as higher salinity surface waters of the western basin reached the eastern basin via the Atlantic Water circulation. This saltier surface layer in the vicinity of the Rhodes Gyre favoured the preconditioning for the formation of the Levantine Intermediate Water, resulting in about 40% increase of its formation rate. This in turn resulted in the production of saltier and larger amounts of deep waters in the various deep-water formation sites. According to the model, the river damming and decreased precipitation since the eighties explain about 95% of the observed salinity increase in the Western Mediterranean Deep Water over the last 40 years. The major contributor to this increase was proved to be the Nile damming. The salt increase in the surface layer is proved to be insufficient to produce alone the two climatic transient events in the deep waters of the Eastern Mediterranean in the late sixties and early nineties, respectively. Surface cooling was found to be important, resulting in large deep water formation and thus allowing the propagation of the increased surface salinity signal to the deep layers. However, model results demonstrate that the river damming played an important role in the long-term salt preconditioning of the surface/intermediate layers, thus contributing in triggering the two events.     

Methane release and coastal environment in the East Siberian Arctic shelf

In this paper we present 2 years of data obtained during the late summer period (September 2003 and September 2004) for the East Siberian Arctic shelf (ESAS). According to our data, the surface layer of shelf water was supersaturated up to 2500% relative to the present average atmospheric methane content of 1.85 ppm, pointing to the rivers as a strong source of dissolved methane which comes from watersheds which are underlain with permafrost. Anomalously high concentrations (up to 154 nM or 4400% supersaturation) of dissolved methane in the bottom layer of shelf water at a few sites suggest that the bottom layer is somehow affected by near-bottom sources. The net flux of methane from this area of the East Siberian Arctic shelf can reach up to 13.7 × 10⁴ g CH₄ km^− 2 from plume areas during the period of ice free water, and thus is in the upper range of the estimated global marine methane release. Ongoing environmental change might affect the methane marine cycle since significant changes in the thermal regime of bottom sediments within a few sites were registered. Correlation between calculated methane storage within the water column and both integrated salinity values (r = 0.61) and integrated values of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) (r = 0.62) suggest that higher concentrations of dissolved methane were mostly derived from the marine environment, likely due to in-situ production or release from decaying submarine gas hydrates deposits. The calculated late summer potential methane emissions tend to vary from year to year, reflecting most likely the effect of changing hydrological and meteorological conditions (temperature, wind) on the ESAS rather than riverine export of dissolved methane. We point out additional sources of methane in this region such as submarine taliks, ice complex retreat, submarine permafrost itself and decaying gas hydrates deposits.     

Nutrient and organic matter patterns across the Mackenzie River, estuary and shelf during the seasonal recession of sea-ice

Suspended material, nutrients and organic matter in Mackenzie River water were tracked along a 300 km transect from Inuvik (Northwest Territories, Canada), across the estuarine salinity gradient in Kugmallit Bay, to offshore marine stations on the adjacent Mackenzie Shelf. All particulates measured (SPM, POC, PN, PP) declined by 87–95% across the salinity gradient and levels were generally below conservative mixing. Organic carbon content of suspended material decreased from 3.1% in the river to 1.7% in shelf surface waters while particulate C:N concurrently decreased from 17.1 to 8.6. Nitrate and silicate concentrations declined by more than 90% across the salinity gradient, with nitrate concentrations often below the conservative mixing line. Phosphate concentrations increased from 0.03 μmol/L in the river to 0.27 μmol/L over shelf waters, thereby changing the inorganic nutrient regime downstream from P to N limitation. Dissolved organic carbon decreased conservatively offshore while dissolved organic N and P persisted at high levels in the Mackenzie plume relative to river water, increasing 2.7 and 25.3 times respectively. A deep chlorophyll-a maximum was observed at two offshore stations and showed increases in most nutrients, particulates and organic matter relative to the rest of the water column. During river passage through the Mackenzie estuary, particulate matter, dissolved organic carbon and inorganic nutrients showed sedimentation, dilution and biological uptake patterns common to other arctic and non-arctic estuaries. Alternatively, inorganic content of particles increased offshore and dissolved organic N and P increased substantially over the shelf, reaching concentrations among the highest reported for the Arctic Ocean. These observations are consistent with the presence of a remnant ice-constrained (‘stamukhi’) lake from the freshet period and a slow flushing river plume constrained by sea-ice in close proximity to shore. Nutrient limitation in surface shelf waters during the ARDEX cruise contributed to the striking deep chlorophyll-a maximum at 21 m where phytoplankton communities congregated at the margin of nutrient-rich deep ocean waters.