Numerical simulation to reliability analysis of fault-tolerant repairable system

In the traditional method for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant system, the system structure is described by means of binary decision diagram (BDD) and Markov process, and then the reliability indexes are calculated. However, as the size of system augments, the size of state space will increase exponentially. Additionally, Markov approach requires that the failure and repair time of the components obey an exponential distribution. In this study, by combining dynamic fault tree (DFT) and numerical simulation based on the minimal sequence cut set (MSCS), a new method to evaluate reliability of fault-tolerant system with repairable components is proposed. The method presented does not depend on Markov model, so that it can effectively solve the problem of the state-space combination explosion. Moreover, it is suitable for systems whose failure and repair time obey an arbitrary distribution. Therefore, our method is more flexible than the traditional method. At last, an example is given to verify the method.     

牵引供电系统可靠性建模方法

采用基于遗传算法的拟合方法,提出了一种以威布尔分布模型为基础的牵引供电系统的可靠性建模方法。以京广线郑州南段牵引供电系统为例,根据统计的14年设备失效率信息,采用建模方法建立了牵引供电系统各设备的可靠性模型,运用BDD算法得到整个牵引供电系统的可靠性模型,计算了系统的有效寿命。拟合优度的K-S和W2检验结果表明:该建模方法是一种适用于牵引供电系统特别是接触网系统可靠性分析的。有效寿命的计算结果表明:牵引供电系统与接触网的有效寿命分别为3.116年与3.215年,供电系统的可靠性在很大程度上取决于接触网的可靠性。     

Nataf变换的桥梁系统多维地震易损性分析方法

在多维性能极限状态理论框架下,考虑桥梁各构件地震响应参数相关性,引入Nataf变换,提出了改进的桥梁系统多维地震易损性分析方法;以一座三跨V撑连续梁桥为例,利用OpenSees软件建立桥梁系统非线性动力分析模型,从美国太平洋地震研究中心强震数据库中选取20条地震波进行增量动力分析,并获得桥梁结构在地震作用下的最大响应样...     

基于出行特征的用地类型推断方法研究

提出一种基于卷积神经网络推测城市交通小区内用地特征的算法,同时对交通小区内多种用地类型进行预测.选用公共交通出行数据集和网约车出行数据集,融合多种出行方式的出行特征对交通小区内用地特征刻画.提取交通小区内发生强度,吸引强度和产吸差强度3个指标作为模型输入,训练得到基于区域内出行特征双通道的卷积神经网络模型,采用网格寻优方法确定最优网络结构.选取北京市六环内交通小区作为研究对象,结果表明,本文算法能够同时推断交通小区内居住、工作和休闲用地特征,并获得各用地类型在小区内占比分布.     

基于出行特征的用地类型推断方法研究

提出一种基于卷积神经网络推测城市交通小区内用地特征的算法，同时对交通小区内多种用地类型进行预测.选用公共交通出行数据集和网约车出行数据集，融合多种出行方式的出行特征对交通小区内用地特征刻画.提取交通小区内发生强度，吸引强度和产吸差强度3个指标作为模型输入，训练得到基于区域内出行特征双通道的卷积神经网络模型，采用网格寻优方法确定最优网络结构.选取北京市六环内交通小区作为研究对象，结果表明，本文算法能够同时推断交通小区内居住、工作和休闲用地特征，并获得各用地类型在小区内占比分布.     

Reliability Modeling and Maintenance Policy Optimization for Deteriorating System Under Random Shock

Performance degradation and random shock are commonly regarded as two dependent competing risks for system failures. One method based on effective service age is proposed to jointly model the cumulative effect of random shock and system degradation, and the reliability model of degradation system under Nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) shocks is derived. Under the assumption that preventive maintenance (PM) is imperfective and the corrective maintenance (CM) is minimal repair, one maintenance policy which combines PM and CM is presented. Moreover, the two decision variables, PM interval and the number of PMs before replacement, are determined by a multi-objective maintenance optimization method which simultaneously maximizes the system availability and minimizes the system long-run expect cost rate. Finally, the performance of the proposed maintenance optimization policy is demonstrated via a numerical example.     

基于TQWT和稀疏表示的滚动轴承故障诊断方法

基于稀疏表示理论,提出了一种采用可调品质因子小波变换(TQWT)的滚动轴承故障诊断新方法,分析了包含早期故障成分的原始采集振动信号的特点和早期故障信号的特性,研究了稀疏表示模型在解决故障特征提取问题和故障类型识别问题的应用;运用TQWT将原始信号转换为一组子带小波系数集,研究了利用迭代收缩阈值算法提取出稀疏小波系数的有效性和谱峭度对故障冲击信号敏感的特性,通过计算各子带信号分量的谱峭度,选取包含故障信息明显的子带小波系数,建立了包含稀疏故障信号分量的故障特征提取方法;利用提取出的故障信号稀疏表示分类模型,实现了基于稀疏表示的滚动轴承故障诊断方法。试验结果表明:在凯斯西储数据集上,提出的故障特征提取方法在剔除干扰成分方面有显著效果,提出方法对于4种类型数据的平均诊断准确率为99.83%,对于10种类型数据的平均诊断准确率为97.73%;与只运用TQWT和迭代收缩阈值算法进行故障特征提取的方法相比,故障诊断精度提高了11.60%,算法运行时间减小8%;在QPZZ-Ⅱ旋转机械平台采集到的振动数据集上,提出的方法对于4种类型数据的平均诊断准确率为100%;与传统小波去噪方法相比,准确率提高了35.67%,算法运行时间减小了7.25%。可见,本文提出的方法可以有效解决滚动轴承故障诊断问题。      

Inspection-Based Policy Considering Human Errors for Three-Stage Delay Time Degradation Systems

A periodic inspection policy for a single component system based on a three-stage failure process is proposed, and two different kinds of failures covering “hard” and “human” are considered in the proposed policy. The system is periodically inspected and inspections are perfect so that they can identify the intended defect. If the severe defect is detected by an inspection, an immediate repair is needed. However, once the system is identified to be in the minor defective state, there are two options. The first is to do nothing till the arrival of identifying the severe defect or hard failure, and the second is to repair immediately. Repair for any defect can renew the system with a limited probability such that the system may fail after repair due to human errors, which is common in many industrial applications. Two models are constructed by minimizing the expected cost per unit time and compared. We provide a numerical example to demonstrate the proposed model.     

磁悬浮列车跨系统运行Petri网模型

根据磁悬浮列车跨系统运行需求,研究了其运行控制系统的总体框架,明确了需要增加的功能子系统。基于系统理论,采用Petri网对系统关键属性、列车运行过程及各子系统的功能进行了层次化的建模。最高层模型描述系统整体关键属性,低层模型描述列车运行过程及可靠性。此模型可用来定量分析磁悬浮列车系统层面上跨系统运行时,失败率与各子系统部件可靠性之间的关系。如每年磁悬浮列车跨系统运行失败次数不超过1次,则连接相邻列控系统的2个通信网,其失效率都需低于10-6次.h-1。当列车跨系统运行触发时间分别为0.2、2.0min,步进时间分别为4、16min时,则跨线运行失败率分别为1.95×10-5、1.65×10-5次.h-1。仿真结果表明:列车跨系统失败率随a网和b网可靠性的提高而降低,同时随着跨系统触发时间和步进时间的增加而降低。层次化建模分析方法可以根据系统层面的关键属性要求,定量确定各子系统部件的可靠性需求。     

大数据背景下基于特征学习的机械设备剩余寿命预测

传统数据驱动剩余寿命的预测方法是通过信号处理从监测数据中手动提取特征并构建健康指标，而在大数据背景下，手动提取特征需要特定专家知识并耗费大量人力，为解决该问题，提出了一种基于特征学习的机械设备剩余寿命预测方法——自适应特征学习寿命预测方法（AFLRULP）. 该方法构建移动窗口数据矩阵解决单次采样中的数据波动问题，并建立了多层一维卷积神经网络将数据矩阵映射为机械设备的健康状态；根据失效阈值可以计算出机械设备的剩余寿命；采样轴承全寿命周期数据集合对提出的AFLRULP进行验证，并且与传统基于手动提取特征的方法进行寿命预测准确性的对比. 研究结果表明:AFLRULP不需要人工提取特征，可从原始监测数据映射为机械设备的性能状态与剩余寿命，相对于现有的基于手动提取特征的寿命预测方法，提出的方法在轴承寿命预测累积相对准确率上平均提高了0.20.      

基于灵敏度阻抗矩阵修正法的分层前推回代潮流算法

分布式电源（DG）接入配电网对潮流产生重要影响.本文分析了潮流计算中各种分布式电源模型及处理方法,引入灵敏度阻抗矩阵修正法更新PV节点的注入无功功率,结合辐射型配电网的特点,提出一种基于灵敏度阻抗矩阵修正法的分层前推回代潮流算法.该算法解决了前推回代潮流算法处理PV节点失效的问题,同时适用于含各类分布式电源的潮流计算.最后对含各种类型分布式电源的IEEE 33节点配电网进行潮流计算仿真,仿真结果验证了提出算法的有效性和快速性,并通过不同算例验证了算法的稳定性.     

环放路网宏观基本图信号周期敏感性分析

为揭示路网宏观基本图(MFD)对信号周期的敏感性，首先，提出一种基于GMM的宏观基本图建模方法，并在此基础上提出路网运行效率和稳定性的表征方法；其次，提出MFD 对信号周期敏感性的仿真实验设计方法；再次，以环放路网为例，进行仿真实验，分析信号周期的变化对MFD的影响，进一步揭示信号周期对路网运行效率和稳定性的影响机理. 结果表明，合理的信号周期对MFD和路网的效率及稳定性影响不大，但周期过大或过小则对MFD 和路网的运行效率及稳定性造成较大影响. 该结论可以为路网交通控制和优化提供依据.     

环放路网宏观基本图信号周期敏感性分析

为揭示路网宏观基本图(MFD)对信号周期的敏感性,首先,提出一种基于GMM的宏观基本图建模方法,并在此基础上提出路网运行效率和稳定性的表征方法;其次,提出MFD 对信号周期敏感性的仿真实验设计方法;再次,以环放路网为例,进行仿真实验,分析信号周期的变化对MFD的影响,进一步揭示信号周期对路网运行效率和稳定性的影响机理. 结果表明,合理的信号周期对MFD和路网的效率及稳定性影响不大,但周期过大或过小则对MFD 和路网的运行效率及稳定性造成较大影响. 该结论可以为路网交通控制和优化提供依据.     

基于有删失数据的失效率非参数估计方法

为解决当寿命分布的数学形式完全未知，而寿命试验数据又含有右删失数据的情况下，如何估计失效率函数的问题，推广运用密度结构估计的处理手段，根据极大似然的估计思想，在推推导出失效率函数估计的数学形式基础上，构造特殊的样条插值，给出了失效率函数的连续非参数估计。     

Load distribution on the hull-leg connection components of a jack-up

The jacking pinions and rack chocks of the fixation system of a jack-up sustain tremendous load in the elevated condition, especially when there exists a remarkable non-uniformity of the load distribution. Failures of these structural components may lead to disastrous consequence of the jack-up. Despite the importance of these components, it is difficult to give an accurate prediction of the load distribution on these components in engineering application due to the complex nonlinear interaction mechanism, which is influenced by the relative stiffness of the components, leg-guide clearance and backlash. Previous studies mainly focus on the global performance of the jack-up and pay little attention to the load distribution on the pinions and chocks. The strength of the jacking system is often guaranteed by the manufacturer for an estimate load level, which brings in uncertainty to the safety of the jack-up. The characteristics of the hull-leg interaction are discussed in this paper, and a simplified method using gap elements is proposed. The nonlinear structural analyses are carried out for a specific jack-up using the proposed method and the three-dimensional finite element method(FEM) with contact algorithm. The proposed method is proved accurate and effective for the engineering application. The characteristics of the load distribution of the specific jack-up are discussed, and the conclusions are presented.     

基于疲劳等效的钢桥面铺装体系轴载换算方法

针对钢桥面铺装设计必须控制的疲劳和车辙主要破坏形式,提出了钢桥面铺装结构设计的疲劳指标与车辙指标,遵循疲劳和车辙等效轴载换算原则,应用疲劳等效原理,推导出基于疲劳等效的钢桥面铺装体系轴载换算公式。根据室内疲劳试验及力学分析结果,确定了该公式中的换算指数和其他轴型与轮组轴载换算为单轴双轮组的轴载换算系数。结果表明,对于钢桥面浇注式沥青混凝土铺装体系的轴载换算指数为4．35,对于钢桥面改性沥青SMA铺装体系的轴载换算指数为5．30,对于钢桥面环氧沥青混凝土铺装体系的轴载换算指数为6．25,在钢桥面铺装设计与验算中,经换算其结果较为精确、可行。     

Enhancing Speech Recognition for Parkinson's Disease Patient Using Transfer Learning Technique

Parkinson's disease patients suffer from disorders of speech.The most frequently reported speech problems are weak,hoarse,nasal or monotonous voice,imprecise articulation,slow or fast speech,difficulty starting speech,impaired stress or rhythm,stuttering,and tremor.To improve the speech quality and assist the patient with speech rehabilitation therapy,we have proposed the speech recognition model for Parkinson's disease patients using transfer learning technique (PSTL),where we have pre-trained the long short-term memory (LSTM)neural network model with our developed publicly available dataset that has been obtained from healthy people through the social media platform.Then,we applied the transfer learning technique to improve the performance of the PSTL framework.The frequency spectrogram masking data augmentation method has been used to alleviate the over-fitting problem so that the word error rate (WER) is further reduced.Even with a limited dataset,our proposed model has effectively reduced the WER from 58％ to 44.5％ on the original speech dataset and 53.1％ to 43％ on the denoised speech dataset,which demonstrated the feasibility of our framework.     

基于可靠度的桥梁构件三维地震易损性分析

为了评估桥梁结构近场抗震性能,建立了桥梁构件的三维地震易损性分析流程. 基于工程结构可靠度理论,用构件三维失效曲面表征墩柱、支座构件的损伤状态,将包含多个单一损伤指标的损伤状态方程作为三维地震易损性分析的损伤指标;其次在既有墩柱弯曲和剪切失效曲面研究的基础上,构建了墩柱弯曲和剪切破坏的损伤状态方程;并基于支座地震损伤的相对变形,建立了支座损伤状态的方程. 在此基础上,构建了墩柱和支座三维地震损伤状态的判别准则,并对不同损伤状态进行了量化. 结合各国桥梁抗震设计规范和工程结构可靠度理论,最后实现了三维地震易损性的计算分析. 通过一维地震易损性的简化验证,表明所提方法可用于桥梁结构的地震易损性分析中,并且所得结果与PSDA （probabilistic seismic demand analysis）法的最大概率偏差小于4%.      

RESEARCH ON REUSE-BASED WEB SERVICES COMPOSITION

Softwarereuseisalwaysanimportantissueto researchforimprovingtheproductivityofsoftware developmentinsoftwareengineeringfield.Free man[1]dividedthesoftwaredevelopmentprocessin to"developmentforreuse"and"developmentwith reuse",whichconsideredsoftwarereusew…     

一种新的多电平逆变器PWM方法及其理论分析

针对多电平逆变器的空间电压矢量数目庞大,以至于SVPwM方法难以实现的问题,研究了基于H桥五电平逆变器的载波PWM方法.根据相移SPwM方法的思想,提出调制波与载波均相移的控制方法.利用双重傅里叶变换及其相关性质,理论上定量分析和计算了PD-PSPWM和POD-PSPWM两种方法的差模电压及共模电压的谐波特性,并进行了仿真试验.理论分析和仿真结果均表明,α=π,β=π时POD-PSPwM方法可使直流电压利用率,输出差模电压和共模电压的综合性能达到最优.