牵引供电系统可靠性建模方法

采用基于遗传算法的拟合方法,提出了一种以威布尔分布模型为基础的牵引供电系统的可靠性建模方法。以京广线郑州南段牵引供电系统为例,根据统计的14年设备失效率信息,采用建模方法建立了牵引供电系统各设备的可靠性模型,运用BDD算法得到整个牵引供电系统的可靠性模型,计算了系统的有效寿命。拟合优度的K-S和W2检验结果表明:该建模方法是一种适用于牵引供电系统特别是接触网系统可靠性分析的。有效寿命的计算结果表明:牵引供电系统与接触网的有效寿命分别为3.116年与3.215年,供电系统的可靠性在很大程度上取决于接触网的可靠性。

Modelling method for reliability of traction power supply system

Using a fitting method based on genetic algorithm(GA),a reliability modelling method of traction power supply system based on Weibull distribution model was proposed.Southern Zhengzhou traction power supply system(TPSS) on Jing-Guang railway was taken an example,its real failure ratio data for 14 years were analyzed,the reliability models of all components of the system were established by the method,based on these,the reliability model of whole system was analyzed by using binary decision diagram(BDD) algorithm,and the life-span of the system was calculated.K-S and W2 goodness-of-fit test result shows that the modeling method is feasible.The computation result of the life-span indicates that the life-span of the system is 3.116 years,the life-span of catenary system is 3.215 years,the reliability of the system depends on the reliability of catenary system to large extent.5 tabs,3 figs,13 refs.