气候变暖下的“西北航道”航线选择

以未来15年北冰洋气候变暖以及大量的海冰融化作为背景,分析北极"西北航道"贯通后的巨大经济利益,并对在北冰洋开设新的航线进行了探讨。北极的自然变化过程深刻影响着中国未来海上运输。由于北极地区具有夏季通航的前景,我国应及早动手制订北极战略,研究北极航线,保证最大的经济利益。     

Experiments on the resistance of a large transport vessel navigating in the Arctic region in pack ice conditions

In this study, we carried out model tests to investigate the ice failure process and the resistance experienced by a transport vessel navigating in the Arctic region in pack ice conditions. We tested different navigation velocities, ice plate sizes, and ice concentrations. During the tests, we closely observed several phenomena, including the modes of interaction of the ice ship and the moving and failure modes of ice. We also measured the vessel resistances under different conditions. The test results indicate that the navigation velocity is a significant determinant of the moving and failure modes of ice. Moreover, vessel resistance is remarkably dependent on the ice concentration and navigation velocity. The variances of the mean and maximum resistance are also compared and discussed in detail.     

The Arctic Shipping and Environmental Management Agreement: A Regime for Marine Pollution

Climate change is predicted to have particularly challenging impacts throughout the Arctic. For instance, there is a great probability of sea ice melting, leading to increased vessel traffic and oil pollution. Eight major nation-states have vested concerns in the potential opening of Arctic sea routes. They each have pledged to take protective action through the Arctic Council. However, there is still a need to develop an international institution to simultaneously address Arctic marine pollution and protect the needs of these states. This article seeks to design a legally binding regime for oil pollution control in the Arctic. In creating this new regime, we shall utilize several shared design elements of historically effective international regimes and take advantage of the legal innovations of these agreements. Our new regime, entitled the Arctic Shipping and Environmental Management Agreement (ASEMA), will take into account both the economic and environmental interests of the parties involved.     

大型运输船浮冰区航行阻力试验研究（英文）

In this study, we carried out model tests to investigate the ice failure process and the resistance experienced by a transport vessel navigating in the Arctic region in pack ice conditions. We tested different navigation velocities, ice plate sizes, and ice concentrations. During the tests, we closely observed several phenomena, including the modes of interaction of the ice ship and the moving and failure modes of ice. We also measured the vessel resistances under different conditions. The test results indicate that the navigation velocity is a significant determinant of the moving and failure modes of ice. Moreover, vessel resistance is remarkably dependent on the ice concentration and navigation velocity. The variances of the mean and maximum resistance are also compared and discussed in detail.     

Arctic shipping scenarios and coastal state challenges

The Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum of the eight Arctic states, is currently embarked on a comprehensive assessment of Arctic marine activity in the 21^st century — the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA). One of the challenges for theAMSA study team has been to identify the major uncertainties that will be central to shaping the future of Arctic marine use in 2020 and 2050. Using scenario planning, AMSA has identified two primary drivers and uncertainties: (A) Resources and trade; and, (B) Governance. Four scenario narratives have been developed with these two, key uncertainties as the framework elements. The main arguments focus on the fact the Arctic has experienced globalization early in the century and that the global maritime industry has already ventured into the Arctic Ocean. Marine access in the Arctic Ocean is also changing in unprecedented ways and the extraordinary transformation Arctic sea ice is undergoing — thinning, extent reduction, and a reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central ocean — has significant implications for longer seasons of navigation. However, the high prices of global commodities such as oil, gas, and hard minerals (for example, copper, nickel and zinc) have generated high levels of demand for Arctic natural resources. The Arctic states are challenged by an overall lack of maritime infrastructure to adequately support current and future levels of Arctic marine operations; ports, communications, environmental monitoring, search & rescue, incident response, aids to navigation, and coastal charting, to name a few, require substantial and timely investment by the coastal states and marine operators. A second challenge is the ongoing development of an integrated system of rules and regulations governing Arctic navigation that will enhance marine safety and ensure marine environmental protection throughout the basin. These challenges will require historic levels of cooperation among the Arctic states and broad engagement with the many, non-Arctic stakeholders and actors within the global maritime industry.     

Proactive environmental planning for emerging shipping routes in Arctic waters

Projected reductions in the extent and thickness of the seaice cover in the Arctic Ocean could substantially benefit shipping, perhaps opening the Arctic Ocean as a major trade route. However, despite the economic benefits of such changes, the emergence of such a route through the Arctic Ocean presents a number of challenges to Arctic coastal States and policy makers in general. Of particular concern is the potential for significant environmental damage. Historically, strong objections have been raised over restrictions on navigation for environmental purposes, on the grounds that these run counter to the freedom of navigation enshrined in international law. Notwithstanding this, a broad range of measures exist for those coastal States wishing to address the threat from shipping.     

Viability of transarctic shipping routes: a literature review from the navigational and commercial perspectives

The continuous ice retreat in the Arctic has fueled speculations of new transarctic shipping routes to be operational soon. While the media vigorously propagates the great potentials of these routes, researchers have accessed the feasibility of opening of transarctic shipping routes from various perspectives; diverse and some polarized conclusions have emerged. This paper aims to critically review the studies that examine the necessary conditions and requirements that make transarctic shipping routes sufficiently viable. We mainly focus on two aspects: navigation conditions and commercial features. Selected studies are analyzed and compared in depth. Finally, possible future research directions are put forward.This article is a revised and expanded version of a paper entitled Viability of Transarctic Shipping Routes: An Overview, presented at the International Conference on ‘Global Integration of Economies and Connectivity Development’ in Taiwan on 31 August 2015.     

Ship resistance when operating in floating ice floes: A combined CFD&DEM approach

Whilst climate change is transforming the Arctic into a navigable ocean where small ice floes are floating on the sea surface, the effect of such ice conditions on ship performance has yet to be understood. The present work combines a set of numerical methods to simulate the ship-wave-ice interaction in such ice conditions. Particularly, Computational Fluid Dynamics is applied to provide fluid solutions for the floes and it is incorporated with the Discrete Element Method to govern ice motions and account for ship-ice/ice-ice collisions, by which, the proposed approach innovatively includes ship-generated waves in the interaction. In addition, this work provides two algorithms that can implement computational models with natural ice-floe fields, which takes floe size distribution and randomness into consideration thus achieving high-fidelity modelling of the problem. Following validation against experiments, the model is shown accurate in predicting the ice-floe resistance of a ship, and then a series of simulations are performed to investigate how the resistance is influenced by ship speed, ice concentration, ice thickness and floe diameter. This paper presents a useful approach that can provide power estimates for Arctic shipping and has the potential to facilitate other polar engineering purposes.     

基于改进蚁群算法的船舶冰区航行路径规划

在北极航道开通的背景下,针对在冰区航行环境中船舶航行路径选择的特殊性,通过改进蚁群算法提高船舶航行路径的规划效果。综合考虑航线距离、航行操作复杂度和流冰规避在内的冰区航行路径影响因素,建立路径选择多目标规划模型,结合人工势场法对蚁群算法进行改进,通过人工势场法获得初始路径和节点间距离因素构造启发信息,并以电子海图为基础建立海冰覆盖率分别为30%和50%情况下的冰区航道环境栅格模型,将算法应用在栅格模型中对算法进行验证。结果表明:该算法实现简单,规划的路径优良,能够有效地满足船舶在冰区复杂环境中航行路径规划的需要。     

The importance of polynyas, ice edges, and leads to marine mammals and birds

The correlation between areas of open water in ice-covered seas and increased biological productivity has been noted for some time. To date, most attention has been focused on larger polynyas, such as the Northeast Water and the Northwater. Although spectacular in their own right, these large polynyas represent only part of a vitally important continuum of biological productivity that varies significantly between geographic areas and ice habitats, that includes the multi-year pack of the polar ocean and small localized polynyas in annual ice. Surveys of the distribution and abundance of ringed seals in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago have shown differences in density that are correlated with the presence or absence of polynyas. There is also significant variation in the biological productivity of polynya areas of the Canadian High Arctic Archipelago and northern Greenland, all of which receive inflow from the polar basin. Long-term studies of polar bears and ringed seals in western Hudson Bay and the eastern Beaufort Sea show significant but dissimilar patterns of change in condition and reproductive rates between the two regions and suggest that fundamentally different climatic or oceanographic processes may be involved. Projections of climate models suggest that, if warming occurs, then the extent of ice cover in Hudson Bay may be among the first things affected. Long-term studies of polar bears and ringed seals in the eastern Beaufort Sea and Hudson Bay would suggest these two species to be suitable indicators of significant climatic or oceanographic changes in the marine ecosystem.     

The melting Arctic and its impact on China’s maritime transport

The shrinking of Arctic ice triggers off a new round of competition and dispute in this region, among traditional Arctic states and non-Arctic actors. Like its East Asia neighbours, China sees the melting Arctic Ocean a unique opportunity for itself and international trade generally. The changing physical landscape of the Arctic region will certainly have a major impact on China’s economic future which is very dependent on international shipping. This paper assesses the impact of the ice-free Arctic on the development of marine transport industry in China. The author discusses the potential new routes with the Arctic’s melting and the opportunities that it brings to China’s maritime transportation industry. Challenges that China faces in future shipping through the Arctic will be also addressed from political, legal, economic and environmental dimensions, followed by a preliminary exploration of ways to solution of these challenges.     

Ports in Proximity – Competition and Coordination among Adjacent Seaports,edited by Theo Notteboom,Cesar Ducruet,and Peter de Langen

The summer minimum extent of Arctic sea ice shrank drastically in these years, and the opportunity on Arctic international shipping emerged. The Northern Sea Route (NSR), formerly blocked by permanent ice, was completely ice-free in September in the past 3 years. Because this route is much shorter than conventional Asia–Europe shipping lane, many maritime countries have paid attention to exploit the enormous potential of the Arctic Ocean from economical consideration. This study measured the economical advantage of the seasonal NSR by calculating the shipping cost saved.     

Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route

ABSTRACT

Recently, the Arctic Route has become busier with the continuous melting of Arctic ice. However, navigation on the Arctic Route would be much more complex than in normal water as harsh environmental conditions, such as ice-covered water and scarce costal ports that may cause more uncertainty. Nowadays, with the rapid development of sensors on board, more related data has become available. Thus, implementing comprehensive Arctic maritime risk assessment is urgent and necessary in practice. This study proposes an Arctic maritime risk state assessment method including real-time risk state assessment and risk prediction. Specifically, real-time observation samples’ numerical risk state would be firstly obtained with projection pursuit method from 10 risk indicators. Due to the fuzzy uncertainty of single observation set, information diffusion would be applied to provide diffusion estimation on risk probability distribution in order to depict risk state precisely. Also, the accumulated distribution can be regarded as the risk prediction for next time slot and risk entropy is introduced to depict risk tendency directly. Case study based on ‘Yongsheng’ is conducted to demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The findings can be useful for the operators and management on board during the Arctic voyage.     

Ship resistance when operating in floating ice floes: Derivation,validation, and application of an empirical equation

With the effects of global warming, the Arctic is presenting a new environment where numerous ice floes are floating on the open sea surface. Whilst this has improved Arctic shipping navigability in an unprecedented way, the interaction of such floes with ships is yet to be understood to aid the designing of ships and route planning for this region. To further explore this topic, the present work develops a procedure to derive an empirical equation that can predict the effects of such floes on ship resistance. Based on a validated computational approach, extensive data are extracted from simulations of three different ships with varying operational and environmental conditions. The ice-floe resistance is shown to strongly correlate with ship beam, ship buttock angle, ship waterline angle, ship speed, ice concentration, ice thickness and floe diameter, and the regression powers of each of the parameters on resistance are ascertained. This leads to a generic empirical equation that can swiftly predict ice-floe resistance for a given ship in a given condition. Subsequently, demonstrations are given on the incorporation of the derived equation into a set of real-time Arctic ship performance model and voyage planning tool, which can predict a ship's fuel consumption in ice-infested seas and dynamically suggest a route with the least safety concern and fuel consumption. Moreover, the equation is validated by providing ice resistance prediction for experimental and full-scale conditions from multiple sources, showing high accuracy. In conclusion, the empirical equation is shown to give valid and rapid estimates for ice-floe resistance, providing valuable insights into ship designs for the region, as well as facilitating practical applications for polar navigation.     

Economic feasibility of an NSR/SCR-combined container service on the Asia-Europe lane: a new approach dynamically considering sea ice extent

The trend towards global warming and the rapid decline in the extent of summer Arctic sea ice over recent years has increased the feasibility of international Arctic shipping. In this study we propose a seasonal NSR (North Sea Route)/SCR (Suez Canal Route)-combined shipping service linking Shanghai and Rotterdam, using the Northern Sea Route during the economical navigable window but using the traditional Suez Canal Route at other times. Different from the previous literatures, this paper dynamically considers the sea ice extent in the model, which is more reasonable for the assessment of Arctic container shipping, because fuel consumption is highly related to ship speed, while ship speed is determined by the relative distances of ice-covered and ice-free route stages. A new approach is developed to predict the time points at which the ship enters and exits the ice-covered stage, given that both the ship position and the extent of sea ice are constantly changing. The results show that the NSR/SCR-combined Arctic container service can be more economical than the SCR, given lower NSR tariffs.     

Numerical Simulation of Turret Moored Ship Performance in Variable Ice Drift Based on Heading Control

The frequent change in ice drift direction poses a significant challenge for turret moored ship in ice. Variability in ice drift is mainly caused by the winds and currents. To solve this problem, a new method with numerical simulation based on heading control is applied to reduce the risk of operation of The Arctic Tandem Offloading Terminal(ATOT),which includes an offloading icebreaker(OIB) moored to a submerged turret and a shuttle tanker moored at the stern of the OIB in this paper. An icebreaking tanker, MT Uikku, was modeled in a simulation program. Then the level ice load on the tanker was calculated with different ice thicknesses and drift speeds, after which a heading controller assisted with mooring system is used to simulate the horizontal motion of the tanker under the ice action.     

我国北极通航瓶颈问题分析

随着全球气温变暖趋势的显现,北极通航问题日益受到各方面的关注但是要实施北极通航,必须对可能面,临的困难和问题有清楚的认识文中从法律法规、环境保护、船舶和航行奈件,以及船员培训和认证等方面,对中国实施北极通航可能存在的一些瓶颈问题作了初步分析,可为从事北极通航问题研究人员提供参考     

Carbonate chemistry dynamics and carbon dioxide fluxes across the atmosphere–ice–water interfaces in the Arctic Ocean: Pacific sector of the Arctic

Climatic changes in the Northern Hemisphere have led to remarkable environmental changes in the Arctic Ocean, which is surrounded by permafrost. These changes include significant shrinking of sea-ice cover in summer, increased time between sea-ice break-up and freeze-up, and Arctic surface water freshening and warming associated with melting sea-ice, thawing permafrost, and increased runoff. These changes are commonly attributed to the greenhouse effect resulting from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and other non-CO₂ radiatively active gases (methane, nitrous oxide). The greenhouse effect should be most pronounced in the Arctic where the largest air CO₂ concentrations and winter–summer variations in the world for a clean background environment were detected. However, the air–land–shelf interaction in the Arctic has a substantial impact on the composition of the overlying atmosphere; as the permafrost thaws, a significant amount of old terrestrial carbon becomes available for biogeochemical cycling and oxidation to CO₂. The Arctic Ocean's role in determining regional CO₂ balance has been ignored, because of its small size (only  4% of the world ocean area) and because its continuous sea-ice cover is considered to impede gaseous exchange with the atmosphere so efficiently that no global climate models include CO₂ exchange over sea-ice. In this paper we show that: (1) the Arctic shelf seas (the Laptev and East-Siberian seas) may become a strong source of atmospheric CO₂ because of oxidation of bio-available eroded terrestrial carbon and river transport; (2) the Chukchi Sea shelf exhibits the strong uptake of atmospheric CO₂; (3) the sea-ice melt ponds and open brine channels form an important spring/summer air CO₂ sink that also must be included in any Arctic regional CO₂ budget. Both the direction and amount of CO₂ transfer between air and sea during open water season may be different from transfer during freezing and thawing, or during winter when CO₂ accumulates beneath Arctic sea-ice; (4) direct measurements beneath the sea ice gave two initial results. First, a drastic pCO₂ decrease from 410 μatm to 288 μatm, which was recorded in February–March beneath the fast ice near Barrow using the SAMI-CO₂ sensor, may reflect increased photosynthetic activity beneath sea-ice just after polar sunrise. Second, new measurements made in summer 2005 beneath the sea ice in the Central Basin show relatively high values of pCO₂ ranging between 425 μatm and 475 μatm, values, which are larger than the mean atmospheric value in the Arctic in summertime. The sources of those high values are supposed to be: high rates of bacterial respiration, import of the Upper Halocline Water (UHW) from the Chukchi Sea (CS) where values of pCO₂ range between 400 and 600 μatm, a contribution from the Lena river plume, or any combination of these sources.     

Arctic tanker risk analysis project

This paper summarizes the interim Phase II results of the Arctic Tanker Risk Analysis Project, which examined the risk of oil shipment by tankers in the Canadian Arctic. The objectives were to identify the hazards most likely to produce an oil spill on the MV Arctic, and to institute measures to reduce that risk. Phase I indicated that a high potential exists for a shipping accident at the terminals, the St. Lawrence River and in the High Arctic. However, environmental sensitivity was shown to be greatest along the coastal zone of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the St. Lawrence River. Phase II involved further examination of environmental sensitivity and the task of ice navigation. These results resulted in a revised risk profile. Three spill scenarios were then designed to estimate clean-up costs and other economic impacts. A cost effectiveness analysis was conducted which compared spill costs to risk mitigation. As the project enters Phase III, the scope has widened to include all product tankers operating in the Arctic. A new Canadian Standards Association Risk Management Standard Q850 is being implemented with the objective of providing prototype tanker Bridge Risk Management System software.     

Finite element based meta-modeling of ship-ice interaction at shoulder and midship areas for ship performance simulation

The climate change has made the transit through Arctic area more feasible, which demands reliable methods to evaluate ship performance. Ship performance in ice is a cross-scale problem, where the desired output such as ship speed lies in larger scale while the actual ship-ice interaction happens in smaller scale. Due to insufficient knowledge in ice mechanics and the demand for computational efficiency, existing approaches for modelling ship-ice interaction from ship performance perspective are mostly either (semi-) empirical, or simplified analytical, with reduced dimensions and extensively simplified mechanics. This paper presents a novel approach to model ship-ice interaction, which maintains the accuracy of the modelling with Finite Element Method (FEM) in ship-ice interaction scale, while being computationally very cheap, therefore is capable to be applied in ship scale simulations. The ice failure is firstly qualitatively investigated through full-scale and model-scale observations, as well as a numerical simulation with Extended Finite Element Method (XFEM). The model is then simplified and executed by Abaqus to automatically run a large database. A neural network is used to fit the results to get a simulation-free tool for ship-ice interaction calculation. Finally, the uncertainty in the results due to an important assumption is quantified. The results show that the obtained neural network fits the database with excellent performance. Therefore, it can be applied in ship scale simulations with improved accuracy compared to empirical or analytical approaches.