未来北极航运模式探讨

北极航道显著的战略价值和经济价值使其成为国际社会关注的焦点。在气候变化、科技进步和保障体系逐渐完善的共同推动下，未来北极实现常态化、规模化通航成为可能。当前航行北极的船型已呈现多样化趋势，形成窗口期和季节性通航模式。未来北极航运的发展还面临诸多挑战和制约，与此同时，政策因素更增加了北极航道开发的不确定性。该文对未来北极航运发展趋势和模式进行展望和探讨，并提出发展北极常态化航运需要解决的关键问题。     

北极航道通航的重要意义及对我国的影响

随着北极气候逐渐变暖,北极冰盖加速融化,北极航道全面通航的可能性日益增加。北极航道将成为中欧、中美货物运输新通道,挑战传统远洋运输航线,改变国际航运格局,对我国未来航运事业发展将产生重大影响。本文从北极航道通航带来的全球性影响以及对我国经济、航运格局、能源格局以及地缘环境影响等角度,通过分析北极航道的历史与现状、全面通航所带来的优势与劣势,提出我国应对北极航道通航的对策与建议。     

北极航线开辟对世界航运格局的影响

伴随着全球气温逐步上升,北冰洋海冰持续消融,北极航线的开辟逐渐成为可能,而北极航线的开辟带来的利益几乎都是国际性的,所以北极航线的开通必然会给现有的世界航运格局带来一定的影响。本文首先介绍了北极航道的概况,随后对北极航道通航对世界航运的格局可能产生的影响进行分析。     

北极东北航道关键水域通航环境及沿线主要港口

分析北极东北航道地缘政治,以及高纬、高寒等地理环境对船舶通信等航行设备的影响,结合北方海航段海域、海峡的海冰特点、通航条件,指出决定北极东北航道开通的关键水域和海峡,并搜集整理了东北航道沿线主要港口的通航条件及功能。     

北极航线探讨

介绍北极地区的东北航线和西北航线的现状及顺利通航的可行性。北冰洋航线的开通可成为北美洲、欧洲和东亚地区之间最快捷的海上通道，对航运及北极丰富资源的开发都大有裨益；文章针对目前仍存在的问题进行了思考并提出建议，笔者认为对于北极航线的研究非常必要。     

北极东北航道航行体会

0引言北极东北航道是连接东亚和北欧的最短航道,北极通航对航运业意义重大且具有商业价值。随着北极东北航道常态化运营战略的推进,越来越多的船舶将航行于北极东北航道。其特殊的环境,如低温、高纬、能见度不良、冰情严重时的破冰引航等,给船舶通航带来很大困难。2015年7月22日至8月19日,笔者随"永盛"轮自江阴港始发经北极东北航道至欧洲第一卸货港(瑞典瓦尔贝里港),在此期间真切感受到极区航行的各种困难与不便。本文针对北极东北航道与常规水域航行的不     

北极海区“永盛”轮东北航线关键水域冰情

根据"永盛"轮北极首航路线,对航线上的关键水域进行识别和分析。利用2010—2014年的海冰密集度数据产品,通过对航线通航窗口和通航季节航线海冰密集度标准差进行分析,识别影响"永盛"轮航线航行安全的3个关键水域依次为东西伯利亚海、维利基茨基海峡和喀拉海及拉普捷夫海靠近北冰洋的水域。这些水域的主要特征是通航时间短,其中东西伯利亚海、维利基茨基海峡和喀拉海还表现出在通航季节海冰范围动态变化大。研究结果包含航线可通航性的定量化数据,有关研究方法和结果可供北极商业航线的选择及评价参考。     

中国参与北极航线国际机制的障碍及对策

北极问题的焦点是北极航线权益的竞争.北极航线问题因为北冰洋的融化预期和随之而来的巨大利益,而变得愈来愈重要.中国在这一问题上不能失去话语权.而要争得北极航线问题国际机制上的主动权,更应对可能的参与障碍进行战略思考.通过对北极航线问题的重要性进行阐述的基础上,分析了我国在参与北极航线问题国际机制的可能方式,并探讨了参与北极航线问题的可能障碍,以及应采取的策略,从而为我国的北极航线问题上的利益争取提供支持.     

前景诱人的北极集装箱贸易航路

<正>随着北冰洋冰量减少,北极将会成为世界贸易的新可能性区域。北极贸易路线,可以减少在途时间、燃油消耗和废气排放,从而成为一条足以替代目前其他航线的有吸引力的贸易路线。目前,这条跨越北冰洋的航线在夏末季节可以通航。一个名为"ARCON"的项目已经研究出其可能性、挑战和与此有关的从今年直至2050年新航线的风险。     

冲突下的北方海航道中国如何参与共治？

<正>在这个后疫情、后俄乌冲突，充满不确定的时代，我国需要重点关注之一便是俄罗斯对北方海航道的政策和举措。随着气候变暖，北冰洋海冰开始融化，越来越多的航商将北极航线视为可行的运输走廊，逐年增长的运输量为沿线区域创造了新的经济机遇，提高了北极航线全年常态化、商业化通航和运营的可实施性。     

Proactive environmental planning for emerging shipping routes in Arctic waters

Projected reductions in the extent and thickness of the seaice cover in the Arctic Ocean could substantially benefit shipping, perhaps opening the Arctic Ocean as a major trade route. However, despite the economic benefits of such changes, the emergence of such a route through the Arctic Ocean presents a number of challenges to Arctic coastal States and policy makers in general. Of particular concern is the potential for significant environmental damage. Historically, strong objections have been raised over restrictions on navigation for environmental purposes, on the grounds that these run counter to the freedom of navigation enshrined in international law. Notwithstanding this, a broad range of measures exist for those coastal States wishing to address the threat from shipping.     

Climate change and the prospects of increased navigation in the Canadian Arctic

There is wide recognition that the process of climate change may be affecting the Arctic region at a faster pace than other regions. What is uncertain is the full impact of climate change on ice cover, and in particular whether there will be a significant decrease of summer ice from the current three months to a longer period and accompanied by navigation conditions suitable and safe for commercial shipping. New international navigation routes through the Canadian and Russian Arctic sectors could significantly reduce the length of sea voyages from Asia to North America and Europe. However, on the basis of what is known to date, there are significant differences of view as to the feasibility of international commercial navigation in the Northwest Passage.     

Arctic routing: Challenges and opportunities

Responding to the world’s growing demand for oil and gas, Arctic resources have been given much attention by the energy and shipping industries. In addition, global warming has accelerated oil and gas development in the Arctic, particularly in its western region. Ice-diminishing Arctic has inspired the world’s shipping industry to explore the feasibility of the historical Arctic routes, the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route, as seasonal commercial sea lanes. The background aspects of the Passages and the main issues to be solved for their commercial openings are discussed in this paper. Challenges to an internationally agreeable Arctic regime, likely the Antarctic Treaty, are crucial for clean production and safe transport of the Arctic resources and the transit passages across the Arctic Ocean.     

Viability of transarctic shipping routes: a literature review from the navigational and commercial perspectives

The continuous ice retreat in the Arctic has fueled speculations of new transarctic shipping routes to be operational soon. While the media vigorously propagates the great potentials of these routes, researchers have accessed the feasibility of opening of transarctic shipping routes from various perspectives; diverse and some polarized conclusions have emerged. This paper aims to critically review the studies that examine the necessary conditions and requirements that make transarctic shipping routes sufficiently viable. We mainly focus on two aspects: navigation conditions and commercial features. Selected studies are analyzed and compared in depth. Finally, possible future research directions are put forward.This article is a revised and expanded version of a paper entitled Viability of Transarctic Shipping Routes: An Overview, presented at the International Conference on ‘Global Integration of Economies and Connectivity Development’ in Taiwan on 31 August 2015.     

如何突破长江航运两大瓶颈

长江作为世界上内河运输最为繁忙的通航河流,建设畅通高效平安绿色的航运尤为重要。随着三峡地区蓄水成库且库区水位逐渐升高,三峡库区的通航能力、航行安全、环保以及水质污染等问题日益显现。如何才能有效解决这些问题,对于加快发展畅通高效平安绿色的长江航运,具有重要意义。正因如此,今年,全国政协委员、交通运输部长江航务管理局原局长金义华把关注的目光转向了长江三峡。在他的三个提案中,两个都与三峡库区密切相关。     

Ports in Proximity – Competition and Coordination among Adjacent Seaports,edited by Theo Notteboom,Cesar Ducruet,and Peter de Langen

The summer minimum extent of Arctic sea ice shrank drastically in these years, and the opportunity on Arctic international shipping emerged. The Northern Sea Route (NSR), formerly blocked by permanent ice, was completely ice-free in September in the past 3 years. Because this route is much shorter than conventional Asia–Europe shipping lane, many maritime countries have paid attention to exploit the enormous potential of the Arctic Ocean from economical consideration. This study measured the economical advantage of the seasonal NSR by calculating the shipping cost saved.     

The melting Arctic and its impact on China’s maritime transport

The shrinking of Arctic ice triggers off a new round of competition and dispute in this region, among traditional Arctic states and non-Arctic actors. Like its East Asia neighbours, China sees the melting Arctic Ocean a unique opportunity for itself and international trade generally. The changing physical landscape of the Arctic region will certainly have a major impact on China’s economic future which is very dependent on international shipping. This paper assesses the impact of the ice-free Arctic on the development of marine transport industry in China. The author discusses the potential new routes with the Arctic’s melting and the opportunities that it brings to China’s maritime transportation industry. Challenges that China faces in future shipping through the Arctic will be also addressed from political, legal, economic and environmental dimensions, followed by a preliminary exploration of ways to solution of these challenges.     

Arctic tanker risk analysis project

This paper summarizes the interim Phase II results of the Arctic Tanker Risk Analysis Project, which examined the risk of oil shipment by tankers in the Canadian Arctic. The objectives were to identify the hazards most likely to produce an oil spill on the MV Arctic, and to institute measures to reduce that risk. Phase I indicated that a high potential exists for a shipping accident at the terminals, the St. Lawrence River and in the High Arctic. However, environmental sensitivity was shown to be greatest along the coastal zone of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the St. Lawrence River. Phase II involved further examination of environmental sensitivity and the task of ice navigation. These results resulted in a revised risk profile. Three spill scenarios were then designed to estimate clean-up costs and other economic impacts. A cost effectiveness analysis was conducted which compared spill costs to risk mitigation. As the project enters Phase III, the scope has widened to include all product tankers operating in the Arctic. A new Canadian Standards Association Risk Management Standard Q850 is being implemented with the objective of providing prototype tanker Bridge Risk Management System software.     

Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (‘economic’, ‘technical’, ‘political’ and ‘safety’ factors) and their sub-criteria.

The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety’, ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the ‘safety’ and ‘political’ domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to ‘economic’ factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.     

Ship resistance when operating in floating ice floes: Derivation,validation, and application of an empirical equation

With the effects of global warming, the Arctic is presenting a new environment where numerous ice floes are floating on the open sea surface. Whilst this has improved Arctic shipping navigability in an unprecedented way, the interaction of such floes with ships is yet to be understood to aid the designing of ships and route planning for this region. To further explore this topic, the present work develops a procedure to derive an empirical equation that can predict the effects of such floes on ship resistance. Based on a validated computational approach, extensive data are extracted from simulations of three different ships with varying operational and environmental conditions. The ice-floe resistance is shown to strongly correlate with ship beam, ship buttock angle, ship waterline angle, ship speed, ice concentration, ice thickness and floe diameter, and the regression powers of each of the parameters on resistance are ascertained. This leads to a generic empirical equation that can swiftly predict ice-floe resistance for a given ship in a given condition. Subsequently, demonstrations are given on the incorporation of the derived equation into a set of real-time Arctic ship performance model and voyage planning tool, which can predict a ship's fuel consumption in ice-infested seas and dynamically suggest a route with the least safety concern and fuel consumption. Moreover, the equation is validated by providing ice resistance prediction for experimental and full-scale conditions from multiple sources, showing high accuracy. In conclusion, the empirical equation is shown to give valid and rapid estimates for ice-floe resistance, providing valuable insights into ship designs for the region, as well as facilitating practical applications for polar navigation.