Analysis of Ocean-Space and Sea-Level Rise Policy in Two Coastal Cities

Global sea-level rise (SLR) is among the most alarming aspects of anthropogenic climate change. The human impacts of SLR are experienced unequally between and within municipalities. Existing research has identified social variables that predict municipal adoption of adaptive SLR policy, but this work does not account for the locally specific social factors that shape particular policies to fit particular cases. This study describes social conceptions of the ocean and SLR policy for two coastal cities in western Washington: Aberdeen and Bainbridge Island. Examining conceptions of marine spaces provides insight into the complex process by which local physical and socio-demographic characteristics shape local policy. The study uses a grounded theoretical approach to content analyses, resulting in localized typologies of marine spaces as well as SLR policy profiles for each case. Results indicate that municipalities vary by both social conception of the ocean and SLR policy form. These findings elaborate upon the relationship between socioeconomic conditions and municipal climate change policy adoption, suggesting that in local media and policy discourse, the absence of relevant resources is related to adversarial conceptions of local marine spaces, while abundance of relevant resources is associated with a conception of marine spaces as natural resources.     

Institutional and Conceptual Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal Cultural Heritage

Climate change is increasing the speed at which tangible coastal cultural heritage is changing in character or being lost through weathering, erosion, and inundation. Damages to coastal archeological sites, loss of access to historical sites, and the alteration of cultural landscapes will force changes in the way researchers can study sites, tourists can enjoy places, and descendant communities who have lived in particular areas for time immemorial, and local community members can utilize and relate to landscapes. In the USA, the National Park Service is a primary coastal cultural resource management organization. The National Park Service has been working on climate change adaptation for cultural resources for over a decade; however, there are few examples of parks in which long range climate change adaptation plans for cultural resources have been implemented. Building from 20 semi-structured interviews with cultural resource managers in three parks, we found that institutional structures within the National Park Service, as well as historical conceptual framings specific to the research, recreational, and interpretive values of cultural resources act as barriers to managers’ ability to design and implement climate change adaptation plans. Institutional barriers managers discussed include the dependence of climate change adaptation decisions partnership projects and the leveraging of budgetary and staff resources within NPS that may affect climate change adaptation capacity. We found that park managers often saw impacts in parks that may be associated with climate change, but found it difficult to separate normal maintenance from climate change affected deterioration, which may lead to status quo management actions rather than revised planning for a changing future regime. Conceptual barriers managers discussed revealed a conflict between preservation needs of research versus interpretive uses and while NPS guidance recommends prioritization of cultural resources for preservation at the park level, regional managers were more focused on this topic than park managers. As NPS moves forward with climate change adaptation planning, opportunities to develop and improve cultural resource preservation with new technologies, improved prioritization schemes, and include public input in resource preservation may help coastal managers overcome these barriers.     

Shipboard safety: exploring organizational and regulatory factors

ABSTRACT

How vessel crews perceive safety on board (shipboard safety) is a useful indication for the general safety level. In this study a theoretical model was explored, involving factors that could possibly influence shipboard safety. Based on a survey questionnaire (n = 244), safety climate, shipowner efficiency demands and regulatory activities were investigated as influencing factors. Structural equation modelling gave support to the theoretical model and the findings illustrate that simultaneous involvement of various levels of the maritime system (crews, shipowners, regulators) can be effective for safety improvements. The study indicates that shipboard safety is affected by actions and prioritization by external actors through safety climate. It suggests that the maritime industry will profit from monitoring safety climate as part of the ongoing risk considerations, as a supplement to reactive parameters such as accident statistics.     

Reframing Engagement Methods for Climate Change Adaptation

Climate change poses known and unknown risks for coastal communities and also challenges for university faculty and local government staff who communicate about cli- mate sciences. Conceived as a way to move beyond traditional models of science communication, this project involved public and private decision makers in specific at-risk communities in Oregon (U.S. Pacific coast) and Maine (Atlantic coast). Both state projects sought to move behavior toward decisive action that results in coastal communities that are more resilient to climate variability at all scales. To promote engagement between project staffs and publics, a dialogic model of communication was advanced, beginning with interviews and focus groups that in turn shaped further engagement through workshops and targeted video products. This means of communication led to a deeper understanding of participants’ knowledge, beliefs, perceptions, values, and barriers to action related to climate change and its effects. Coinciding with this, project participant evaluations in both Oregon and Maine indicate that the workshops and videos were successful at informing them on this complex issue; and in both states, project participation led to action outcomes. We believe that applied elsewhere our multifaceted and adaptive approach will garner similar results, provided sufficient dedicated staffing and attention to methods.     

Perspectives of the Expert and Experienced on Challenges to Regional Adaptation for Sea Level Rise: Implications for Multisectoral Readiness and Boundary Spanning

This study focuses on adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) in the specific context of the Hampton Roads region of southeastern coastal Virginia. It analyzes the perspectives of stakeholders who are experts in and have experience with SLR to develop an informed understanding of the region’s ability to address SLR and its readiness to pursue adaptation using a whole-of-community approach. A survey of the expert and experienced reveals (1) what they prioritized as the top three most challenging phases of regional adaptation and (2) what issues within those priority areas were the most pressing. Our findings point to the importance of meso- and micro-level boundary spanning across organizations and the whole of the community to ensure that multiple organizations and individuals in a region can be engaged in adaptation. Finally, this work briefly discusses how boundary-spanning approaches can provide a region a pathway toward overcoming barriers to effective climate-related adaptation.     

The Offshore Wind Power Debate: Views from Cape Cod

Wind power resources on the eastern U.S. continental shelf are estimated to be over 400 GW, several times the electricity used by U.S. eastern coastal states. The first U.S. developer proposes to build 130 large (40 story tall) wind turbines in Nantucket Sound, just outside Massachusetts state waters. These would provide 420 MW at market prices, enough electricity for most of Cape Cod. The project is opposed by a vigorous and well-financed coalition. Polling shows local public opinion on the project almost equally divided. This article draws on semistructured interviews with residents of Cape Cod to analyze values, beliefs, and logic of supporters and opponents. For example, one value found to lead to opposition is that the ocean is a special place that should be kept natural and free of human intrusion. One line of argument found to lead to support is: The war in Iraq is problematic, this war is “really” over petroleum, Cape Cod generates electricity from oil, therefore, the wind project would improve U.S. security. Based on analysis of the values and reasoning behind our interview data, we identify four issues that are relevant but not currently part of the debate.     

Predicting Stakeholder Support for Fishery Policies

Fisheries management has been used to address declining fisheries and threats to livelihood and food security. Past research suggests that public support for fishery policies is a necessary component for sustaining the long-term success of fisheries management. This study predicted public support by examining fishers’ perspectives on co-management and fish catch since the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs), a commonly employed fisheries management tool. Data were obtained from onsite surveys (n = 505) with fishers from three municipalities in Cebu, Philippines: Oslob, Santander, and Samboan. Structural path analyses revealed that beliefs about co-management and fish catch predicted support for fishery policies (R² = 59%). Separate path analyses for each municipality showed that co-management had greater influence in predicting public support for fishery policies in Oslob and Santander. Fish catch was a better predictor for public support for fishery policies in Samboan. Results can help local governments, non-governmental organizations, and fishery managers to prioritize, plan, and improve fisheries management in municipal waters.     

Vulnerability of Coastal Resort Cities to Mean Sea Level Rise in the Mexican Caribbean

We evaluated the potential economic impacts of increasing sea level rise (SLR) along the Mexican Caribbean where there are major gaps in our understanding of the mechanisms controlling flooding duration and frequency associated to future ecological and economic impacts. We determined the negative economic impact of SLR on infrastructure in the largest urban centers (Cancun, Isla Mujeres, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Morelos and Cozumel) in the state of Quintana Roo (Mexico) that are considered the largest tourism “hot spots” (resort cities) in the country. The tourism industry in this coastal area injects >8 billion dollars year^?1 to the Mexican economy. Our conservative economic assessment regarding the impact of SLR, under a 1?m scenario for all coastal cities is $330 million USD. Further projections for worst scenarios (SLR >2 m) show a non-linear trend where the cost of inaction can reach up to $1.4 billion USD (2?m SLR scenario) and $2.3 billion USD (3?m SLR scenario). This potential loss of infrastructure, as construction cost, is staggering and represents a robust baseline to start evaluating with more detail future impacts of climate variability and change on the Mexican Caribbean coastline.     

Public opinion and the environment: Ecology,the coastal zone,and public policy

Abstract

In a public opinion survey conducted in Santa Barbara county, California, respondents were interviewed regarding their feelings on coastal zone development, within a context of broader environmental and political issues.

A high degree of expressed concern for the environment was found, but the data also indicate a widespread reluctance to allocate a greater share of personal income to improve environmental quality.

Among the issues dealt with are citizen views on environmental problems, the effectiveness of government in the environmental field, offshore oil drilling, and coastal zone development.

The results show that on each of the issues analyzed, a person's education, age, and the extent of his political participation are the major factors which determine his concern for the environment. Additional variables appear to have some significance in determining attitudes toward local environmental projects and perceptions of government.

Offered are implications of the findings for the future of organized action on environmental problems.     

The gender perspective in maritime education and training

The aim of this article is to show if and how European maritime education and training institutions have met the increasing enrolment of women, and how shipping in general has reacted to gender equality. WMU has partly been the source for finding data related to studies in a multicultural and gender (minority) mixture of students and professors. In addition to a questionnaire to maritime education and training institutions, unstructured conversations with WMU students and professors have contributed to fact findings. Apparently, there is more to be done in order to have women compete on a level playing field in the sphere of shipping. Shipping is historically male dominated and conservative, so it is well understood that there are ropes to be untied. In this article, there are examples on how stakeholders in society have introduced policies on how to meet diversities. It is recommended that universities seriously pursue this trend. I wish to appeal to educational institutions to publish a university policy on the gender perspective and diversity management in general. The policy must be in writing in order for staff and students to understand and remember the content of the policy. This is an issue that should follow the quality assurance aims and goals and should be posted in a public place within the university’s premises for everybody to be reminded.     

Analytical and institutional methods and frameworks

This chapter presents a summary of the findings of the workshop on ‘Analytical and Institutional Methods and Frameworks’. The paper discusses the nature of the analytical methods used in the papers presented and the purposes for which they were employed, which were generally to either assist in the planning and operation of public transport or to monitor the efficiency and effectiveness of transport services. Subsequent sections examine issues related to data collection and management, and the more general issue of institutional arrangements. Policy and research agendas needed to support further consideration of the subject are then identified.     

Port Decision Maker Perceptions on the Effectiveness of Climate Adaptation Actions

Effective adaptation to climate change impacts is rapidly becoming an important research topic. Hitherto, the perceptions and attitudes of stakeholders on climate adaptation actions are under researched, partly due to the emphasis on physical and engineering aspects during the adaptation planning process. Building on such considerations, the paper explores the perceptions of port decision makers on the effectiveness of climate adaptation actions. The findings suggest that while port decision makers are aware of potential climate change impacts and feel that more adaptation actions should be undertaken, they are skeptical about their effectiveness and value. This is complemented by a regional analysis on the results, suggesting that more tailor-made adaptation measures suited to local circumstances should be developed. The study illustrates the complexity of climate adaptation planning and of involving port decision makers under the current planning paradigm.     

Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable

Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.     

Making Computer Models Useful: An Exploration of Expectations by Experts and Local Officials

Recent trends indicate increasing use of computer modeling in support of local environmental policy making. The ability of such models to improve local environmental decision making will depend not only on the characteristics of the models but also on those who will draw on them in making local policy: local government officials. In this study we examine the views of town officials concerned about nitrogen levels in local estuaries about computer models developed to inform their understandings and decisions regarding nitrogen loading. We also compare the views of the town officials with a sample of modelers. We find that town officials are supportive of models and the scientists who build them. However, town officials seek more information about the impacts of changes at small spatial scales (e.g., house building lots) than current models provide or than modelers believe that they can accurately provide, while recognizing the inability of current models to support such analysis. Town officials are also interested in more distant endpoints in the causal chain (e.g., effects on fish populations) than the modelers feel comfortable providing. Finally, our findings suggest that town officials are not supportive of broad public use of the models.     

An integrated credit rating and loan quality model: application to bank shipping finance

Assessing a borrower’s credit quality is a critical input for efficient bank loan facility allocation, particularly at phases of financial distress. An integrated credit rating model is proposed to borrowers’ credit rating in support of bank financing decisions. Based on a global bank survey, a core set of critical quantitative and qualitative criteria are initially identified and are subsequently weighted and rated, incorporating a dynamic multicriteria optimization approach. The issue of credit rating migration, inducing adjustments in bank financing decisions, is also investigated. The empirical findings can be instrumental to bank credit policy decisions and risk management.     

九圩港闸闸下兴建桥梁工程模型试验研究

九圩港闸下新建桥梁工程，不能单独从泥沙问题来考虑其影响，还应考虑工程后对九圩港闸引、排水功能以及对闸上已有桥梁工程的影响。通过物理模型试验研究将较好地解决相关难题，为工程决策、设计提供科学依据。研究结果表明，桥梁工程方案实施后潮位最大壅高0．028m，对流速影响较大的范围在桥轴线上下100m之内，对九圩港闸引、排水流量的影响在3％以内。     

Results so far and prospects of Kazakhstan passenger rail franchising

From 1991 till 2004 passenger rail transportation in Kazakhstan was organized by a public company without financial contribution from the state budget. As in any post-Soviet country losses from passenger sector in the integrated rail company were covered at the expense of the freight transportations. From 2005 the Government is trying to introduce competition in passenger rail industry by competitive tendering rights to operate on particular route and providing subsidies.This paper reviews the Kazakhstan passenger rail franchising policy from statement and implementation with analysis of results so far. To get sense about the current policy’s perception survey among managers of the government bodies and railway companies had been performed. It indicates respondents’ opinion about main concerns and suggestions for improvement in passenger rail industry. According to provided analysis there are opportunities for improvements in operation of public and private companies as well as in the Government policy.     

The Effectiveness of Coastal Zone Management in the United States

The Coastal Zone Management Effectiveness Study was undertaken between 1995 and 1997 to determine how well state coastal management programs in the United States were implementing five of the core objectives of the U.S. Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA). The five core objectives studied were: (1) protection of estuaries and coastal wetlands; (2) protection of beaches, dunes, bluffs and rocky shores; (3) provision of public access to the shore; (4) revitalization of urban waterfronts; and (5) accommodation of seaport development (as an illustration of the policy to give priority to coastal-dependent uses). Separate articles in this issue of Coastal Management report the findings of the five studies, each dealing with one of the core objectives. Each of the articles assesses issue importance, processes and tools used, and the limited outcome data available for that objective. This article provides an overview of the purposes of the study, the methodology used, the summary findings of each study, and overall conclusions and recommendations of the study team. State coastal programs are found to be effective in addressing the five CZMA objectives examined, but this conclusion is based on very limited information about program outcomes. A more definitive conclusion will require better outcome information. Coastal managers in the United States have not agreed upon indicators of success, which severely inhibits systematic and sustained collection of outcome information. A national outcome monitoring and performance evaluation system is recommended to address these deficiencies and allow better determinations of program effectiveness in the future.     

Spatially Prioritizing Seafloor Mapping for Coastal and Marine Planning

Coastal and marine areas provide vital services to support the economic, cultural, recreational, and ecological needs of human communities, but sustaining these benefits necessitates a balance between growing and often competing uses and activities. Minimizing coastal zone conflict and reducing human-induced impacts to ecological resources requires access to consistent spatial information on the distribution and condition of marine resources. Seafloor mapping provides a detailed and reliable spatial template on the structure of the seafloor that has become a core data need for many resource management strategies. The absence of detailed maps of the seafloor hinders the effectiveness of priority setting in marine policy, regulatory processes, and marine stewardship. For large management areas, the relatively high cost of seafloor mapping and limited management budgets requires careful spatial prioritization. In order to address this problem, a consensus based approach, aided by decision-support tools, and participatory geographic information systems (GIS), was implemented in Long Island Sound to spatially prioritize locations, define additional data collection efforts needed, and identify products needed to inform decision-making. The methodology developed has utility for other states and regions in need of spatially prioritizing activities for coastal planning, and organizations charged with providing geospatial services to communities with broad informational needs.     

Reducing the probability of ship grounding: which measure to undertake?

The analytic hierarchy process has been used to elicit the knowledge of maritime transport stakeholders, such as seafarers, authorities, insurers and academics, regarding human factors and risk-reducing measures for ship groundings. Measures against human fatigue, alcohol abuse, language barriers, poor bridge management and safety climate have been compared with regard to costs and benefits. The measures are discussed in the context of large ships on a voyage of at least 24 h containing Bridge Resource Management. The study shows that stakeholders consider the costs of the measures to reduce human fatigue at sea surpass the benefits. Measures against alcohol abuse are regarded as the most cost–benefit efficient. Also, the stakeholders consider the watch scheme 8–4–4–8 to be less fatiguing than the 12–12 watch scheme. In addition, the results of the study support previous findings that inadequate manning levels contribute the most to human fatigue within the bridge management team.