Risk perception in the Norwegian shipping industry and identification of influencing factors

In the recent years, safety culture in relation to shipboard safety and organizational factors has received increasing interest within the shipping industry. This study examines this relationship, where risk perception is an indicator for shipboard safety. Data was derived from a survey carried out in 2006, where 1262 questionnaires were collected from 76 vessels. Explorative factor analyses were used to extract factors of safety culture. Analysis of variance was used to assess the associations between the safety cultural factors and demographic and organizational variables. Finally, linear regression analysis was carried out to assess the association between risk perception and safety culture, controlling for the influence of demographic and organizational variables; age, department, vessel type and nature of work. The results suggest that safety-oriented shipboard management style, performance of proactive working practices and good reporting practices all contribute to a better perception of shipboard safety, while a high demand for efficiency contributes to a more negative perception of the safety level. Further, safety is perceived as better when work is performed as a team. To gain a better understanding of risk perception and safety at sea, it would be helpful to further examine the characteristics and influences of teamwork.     

舰载直升机起降安全性分析及其评估

针对舰载直升机起降的安全问题,论文从四个方面分析其影响因素,开展了基于模糊综合评判的舰载直升机起降安全评估分析.该评估体系分为三层,运用模糊综合评判建立判断矩阵并计算评价向量,最后通过计算被评价对象的评价等级量化值,并得出了可供舰载机起降决策的评价结果.     

A quantitative risk analysis by using interval type-2 fuzzy FMEA approach: the case of oil spill

ABSTRACT

Risk assessment in maritime domain is one of the most cited topics since maritime transportation poses potential hazard for human life, marine environment and property. To mitigate risk and enhance safety awareness in maritime transportation, safety researchers have been seeking proactive solutions. This article prompts a quantitative risk-based approach combining interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs) with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to perform a comprehensive risk analysis. Thus, potential failure modes and their effects are revealed by calculating risk prioritisation numbers (RPNs). Whilst the FMEA method provides a robust risk analysing tool with relevant control options, the IT2FSs deals with ambiguity and vagueness of linguistic assessment of decision-makers through the FMEA. Hence, expert’s linguistic assessment in risk assessment can be transformed into useful information in terms of enhancing safety and pollution prevention in maritime industry. To demonstrate the proposed approach, potential failures and effects of a real shipboard oil spill case are handled. The findings show that incomplete information exchanged with local maritime authorities, malfunction of oil skimmer and poor organization of shoreline clean-up team are the most important failures during case of oil spill. The proposed approach provides not only theoretical insight into the maritime transportation industry but also practical contributions to chemical/oil tanker safety and environmental protection by mitigating risk in terms of technical or operational aspects.     

中压舰船接地方式与人体安全性分析

中压电力系统在舰船上的应用给舰船人员的安全性提出了新的要求,为此在建立人体模型的基础上,分析两种不同接地方式人体触电的危害,并给出了相应的安全措施.     

Data-driven ferry network design with candidate service arcs: the case of Zhuhai Islands in China

ABSTRACT

We investigate a ferry network design problem with candidate service arcs (FNDP-SA), which is a new variant motivated by areal-world case from Zhuhai Islands. In this research, the design of a ferry schedule must conform to strict constraints including technical feasibility, safety issues, environmental impacts and moreover, avoid conflicting with ferries from neighboring cities (i.e. HongKong, Shenzhen and Macao). Therefore, a set of cautiously approved service arcs are firstly given, based on which the ferry service network is optimized. This study is among the first to formally describe the FNDP-SA and model it as an integer program. A hybrid variable neighborhood descent (VND)-based algorithm is developed. Two sets of instances are generated based on the case of Zhuhai Islands, where the first set is based on historical ticket sales data while the second set is derived by incorporating increased demands in the future according to a questionnaire survey. Numerical studies have shown that 59% cost reduction on the first set can be achieved by the proposed VND algorithm when compared with manual results. Research outcomes of this study have been adopted and implemented to facilitate the sustainable development of the ferry service of Zhuhai Islands.     

Safety culture on board six Swedish passenger ships

This paper presents the results of a Swedish study on maritime safety culture. The study aims to increase knowledge about the characteristics of safety culture in the maritime setting and about the relationship between safety culture and organizational climate. Such knowledge can be vital in the process of developing and improving safety culture. The paper reports the results of safety culture assessments on board six Swedish passenger ships in international traffic, using observations, questionnaires, and interviews focussing on 508 employees who completed the questionnaires. The results of the assessments revealed a generally good existing safety culture. Differences in individuals' safety culture perceptions were found between ships, vessel type (high-speed craft versus Ropax), and hierarchical working position. Important relationships between organizational climate and safety culture were also found. A comparison with other transport sectors where the same safety culture assessment had been applied yielded that passenger shipping has an average safety culture score level that falls between air traffic control and airport ground handling. The method of assessment, which can be used by shipping companies and vessel crews, identified specific areas of concern in the safety culture that could support continuous improvements of safety and safety culture.     

Safety culture on board six Swedish passenger ships

This paper presents the results of a Swedish study on maritime safety culture. The study aims to increase knowledge about the characteristics of safety culture in the maritime setting and about the relationship between safety culture and organizational climate. Such knowledge can be vital in the process of developing and improving safety culture. The paper reports the results of safety culture assessments on board six Swedish passenger ships in international traffic, using observations, questionnaires, and interviews focussing on 508 employees who completed the questionnaires. The results of the assessments revealed a generally good existing safety culture. Differences in individuals' safety culture perceptions were found between ships, vessel type (high-speed craft versus Ropax), and hierarchical working position. Important relationships between organizational climate and safety culture were also found. A comparison with other transport sectors where the same safety culture assessment had been applied yielded that passenger shipping has an average safety culture score level that falls between air traffic control and airport ground handling. The method of assessment, which can be used by shipping companies and vessel crews, identified specific areas of concern in the safety culture that could support continuous improvements of safety and safety culture.     

舰载喷气燃料综合安全保障技术

随着海军装备技术的不断发展,大型水面舰船都装备了舰载机,这就要求舰船本身必须携带大量的喷气燃料,而喷气燃料的质量和安全性又对飞机和舰船形成了重大安全隐患。简要介绍了舰载条件下喷气燃料质量污染因素及其主要危害,分析了喷气燃料发生爆炸的主要危险因素,针对喷气燃料污染的主要途径和引起喷气燃料发生爆炸事故的主要因素,提出了相应的控制方法和今后的研究方向。     

Sea Cucumber Moratorium and Livelihood Diversity in Papua New Guinea

Livelihood diversity factors such as flexibility within fisheries, geographical mobility, reallocation of fishing effort into the broader economy, and the non-material benefits that fisheries provide are important areas of research in marine policy. We use two small-scale fisheries related socio-economic surveys of communities in the Tigak Islands of Papua New Guinea. The first conducted 5 years before a ban on the harvesting of sea cucumbers was imposed and the second from the present day, 5 years after the initiation of the ban—with the objectives of exploring changes in household fishing strategies (types and numbers of species targeted) and to identify any important socioeconomic factors that help explain those changes. Fishing's contribution to total household income has increased significantly (p = 0.019) up from 61% in 2004 to 73% in 2014 with the percentage of female residents living in a household now positively and significantly (p = 0.018) associated with fishing income. The average number of species categories targeted per household increased insignificantly while households with more women are significantly (p = 0.018) less likely to target more species than households with more men. Moreover, customary management practices contribute to this difference. Together, these results show that households are not worse off financially 5 years after the ban on sea cucumber harvesting and that gendered seascape use has implications for the role of livelihood diversity as a marine policy tool.     

Maritime safety and the ISM code: a study of investigated casualties and incidents

In 1993, the International Maritime Organization adopted the International Safety Management (ISM) Code which requires all shipping companies operating certain types of vessels to establish safety management systems. Nevertheless, two decades later, maritime safety remains a concern. This article studies 94 maritime cases investigated by the Maritime Accident Investigation Branch in the UK. By providing an analysis of reported casualties and incidents, it highlights current challenges in maritime safety. For each casualty and incident, the study reviews the underlying causal factors. These causal factors are then coded according to the functional sections of the ISM Code, covering various aspects of safety management. To investigate human and organizational factors involved in the casualties and incidents, the human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS) is applied to code the same data. Finally, the relative seriousness of casualties and incidents is considered to discuss the findings from ISM Code and HFACS reviews. The study found that the main challenges pertain to the development of plans for shipboard operations, local shipboard management, and the ability of the company to verify when such practices deviate from best practices or required standards.     

基于影响图的舰载电子战系统模型

文章把影响图理论应用到舰载电子战系统模型中,通过阐述影响图建模理论,并基于舰载电子战系统的工作过程,列出影响舰载电子战系统的表征参量,根据影响图建模理论,画出舰载电子战系统的影响图模型,根据各个参量之间的耦合关系,并列出微分方程。在研究中得出无源干扰系统干扰不确定半径,有源干扰系统干扰不确定半径,在舰载电子战系统作战中起着非常重要的作用。文章丰富了舰载电子战系统模型的建立方法,具有一定的理论意义。     

基于AIS数据的船舶航行安全评价模型构建

针对现有船舶海上航行安全度求解复杂、参考因素权重确定困难等方面的不足，研究影响评价模型准确性的数据来源、模型构建方法等问题，提出一种基于关系型数据库的船舶重要指标筛选方法和数据库构建及检索设计方案。构建基于模糊数学方法、层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)和专家评价法的船舶碰撞危险度(Collision Risk Index, CRI)求解模型，并根据实船自动识别系统(Automatic Identification System, AIS)数据对船舶航行安全评价数学模型和构建的数据库进行验证。结果表明，基于AIS数据的船舶航行安全评价数据库具有较好的可靠性和易用性。船舶航行安全评价模型计算结果可信，符合专家经验及《国际海上避碰规则》要求，可为船舶海上航行安全评价提供技术和理论支持。     

Risk assessment of inland waterborne transportation using data mining

ABSTRACT

China has constructed a relatively complete inland waterborne transportation system. However, the frequent occurrence of inland water accidents with serious consequences, like the catastrophic Orient Star shipwreck, is an urgent unsolved problem. To reduce such accidents in the future and improve inland waterborne transportation safety, this study uses data mining, mainly containing text mining and association rule mining to risk assess China’s inland waterborne transportation, rather than the traditional quantitative risk assessment model. Text mining enables the risk factors to be objectively identified and distilled from accident reports. The potential relationships between risk variables are explored using association rule mining, based on the FP-Growth algorithm. The results reveal the essential problem facing China’s inland waterborne transportation system: frequent and varied ship accidents; key risk factors include overloading or improper loading, poor navigation visibility, inadequate sailor competence, and insufficient government supervision of shipowners and shipping companies. Combining the actual circumstances of inland waterborne transportation operations, this study proposes relevant recommendations for governments and relevant supervisory departments. The integrated application of text mining and association rule mining serves to avoid uncertainty and subjectivity, and achieve good results proving their scientific nature as a feasible method in water transportation risk research.     

Prediction of wave parameters by using fuzzy inference system and the parametric models along the south coasts of the Black Sea

Forecasting of sea-state characteristics has a great importance in coastal and ocean engineering studies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate performances of Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and several parametric methods in the Black Sea. For this purpose, different fuzzy models with different input combinations were developed for two different wind data sources (TSMS and ECMWF) at two offshore buoy stations. It also aimed to apply several approaches to event-based data sets for wave predictions. Generally, in literature the tendency is to use time series data for wave predictions. In this kind of prediction approach, lagged time series data are taken as inputs and current or future variables are taken as output. In this study, event-based data for each independent storm were extracted from time series data. Simultaneous or concurrent data of wind speed, blowing duration, fetch length and wave characteristics were detected for each single storm. These event data were then used to set up models. The hindcast results were validated with significant wave height and mean wave period data recorded in Hopa and Sinop buoy stations. The performance of developed fuzzy models were also compared with that of four different parametric methods (Wilson, SPM, Jonswap, and CEM methods) applied for two wind data sources at both buoy stations. Finally, it was determined that in the prediction of both wave parameters (H _s and T _z) the ANFIS models (R = 0.66, squared correlation coefficient, and MAE = 0.37 m, mean absolute error, for the best model in prediction of H _s) were more accurate than the parametric methods (R = 0.63 and MAE = 0.75 m for the best model in prediction of H _s).     

舰艇管路系统的抗冲击性能弹性评估方法

舰艇管路系统的抗冲击安全性能是其生命力要素的重要组成部分,因此对舰艇管路的抗冲击设计分析方法的需求也十分迫切.本文以火力发电厂汽水管路设计计算方法为原理,对容易破坏的管路部件的应力增强系数进行验证性计算,提出了多点支撑管路系统的冲击载荷输入方法,给出了管路系统的抗冲击性能评估方法.通过试验,验证了评估方法具有足够的安全系数,可以作为舰艇管路系统抗冲击性能的评估方法.     

Development of early warning index in Korean shipping industry by using signal approach

ABSTRACT

The study aims to investigate and prevent shipping companies’ insolvency that can be derived from depressed market sentiment in the shipping industry. For this purpose, the paper focuses on developing an early warning index. The main factors that contribute to the change in the shipping industry are derived. Sixty independent variables were accounted in the development of early warning index, some of which are shipping, shipbuilding, and finance. Suggestions drew from the result of early warning index are described as below. Firstly, the results of a signal approach towards independent variables showed lowest the signal error value in newbuilding price of containership, bunker price, Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) commodity index, and order book of bulkship. These indicators have proven to be a high level of variation factor during shipping markets’ crisis. Secondly, the early warning index confirmed that it preceded by 6 months compared to probability of default. Thirdly, in order to validate the accuracy of the early warning index, the adequacy of the model was tested using a mean square error and time lag correlations. As a result of the verification, value proved to be at a high level of compliance at 0.097.     

Maritime accident risk estimation for sea lanes based on a dynamic Bayesian network

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation has become increasingly important with the development of international economics and trade. This paper introduces a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model to facilitate the estimation of the dynamic emergency risk in sea lanes. The DBN model is a novel model that can efficiently represent and infer complex stochastic knowledge. To construct this model, available data, which were collected from emergency investigation reports by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), are employed in conjunction with expert knowledge to develop and demonstrate a BN; an evidence theory approach is applied to calculate the prior probability with the help of historical data; the conditional probability is learned by the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm; and the transition probability is obtained by a Markov model. Finally, the Viterbi algorithm is adopted to estimate emergency risk. The emergencies that occurred in the Indian Ocean from 2009 to 2018 were used as a case study for risk estimation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify significant influential factors. The results show that the sea lane risk in the Indian Ocean fluctuates within a small range, presenting an overall downward trend over time. These findings provide a reference for maritime stakeholders to make proper decisions.     

Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation along the twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) is important to ensure its development and sustainability. Maritime transportation poses risks of accidents that can cause the death or injury of crew members and damage to ships and the environment. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) based risk analysis approach that is newly applied in the main route of the MSR to analyse its relevant maritime accidents. The risk data are manually collected from the reports of the accident that occurred along the MSR. Next, the risk factors are identified and the results from the modelling method can provide useful insights for accident prevention. Historical data collected from accident reports are used to estimate the prior probabilities of the identified risk factors influencing the occurrence of maritime accidents. The results show that the main influencing factors are the type and location of an accident and the type, speed, and age of the involved ship(s). In addition, scenario analysis is conducted to analyse the risks of different ships in various navigational environments. The findings can be used to analyse the probability of each possible maritime accident along MSR and to provide useful insights for shipowners’ accident prevention.     

Recreation Conflict Along New York's Great Lakes Coast

This study used goal interference theory to examine the recreation conflict among motorboat users, personal watercraft users, and riparian landowners. Data were collected from three types of owners in the New York Great Lake coastal area. Results indicated each of the four recreation conflict dimensions proposed in goal interference theory contained multiple factors. Logistic regression models indicated that one or more dimensions were significant in predicting perceived conflict and the models correctly predicted conflict in over 70% to 100% of the cases. Goal interference theory can be seen as a general model, but significance of the four dimensions depends on types of recreation activities and users.     

Revisiting urban hierarchy and specialization from a maritime perspective

ABSTRACT

Port–city relationships have attracted paramount attention from a variety of scientific disciplines for several decades, such as geography, history, planning, regional science, sociology, and economics to name but a few. Yet, the extent to which maritime traffic specialization obeys the same spatial distribution than other economic activities remains underexplored today. This article tackles these lacunae head-on by proposing an empirical analysis of the way vessel tonnage per main categories of flows (e.g. containers, bulks, passengers) coincides with the demographic size of the world’s coastal and inland city-regions, using novel data on global inter-port vessel movements and harmonized population data over the period 1977–2008. Our main results confirm that such traffic is far from being randomly distributed, as its volume, value, and diversity concentrate at the top of the urban hierarchy. This research motivates the need to further integrate physical connectivity into the study of cities and their development mechanisms.