Data-driven ferry network design with candidate service arcs: the case of Zhuhai Islands in China

ABSTRACT

We investigate a ferry network design problem with candidate service arcs (FNDP-SA), which is a new variant motivated by areal-world case from Zhuhai Islands. In this research, the design of a ferry schedule must conform to strict constraints including technical feasibility, safety issues, environmental impacts and moreover, avoid conflicting with ferries from neighboring cities (i.e. HongKong, Shenzhen and Macao). Therefore, a set of cautiously approved service arcs are firstly given, based on which the ferry service network is optimized. This study is among the first to formally describe the FNDP-SA and model it as an integer program. A hybrid variable neighborhood descent (VND)-based algorithm is developed. Two sets of instances are generated based on the case of Zhuhai Islands, where the first set is based on historical ticket sales data while the second set is derived by incorporating increased demands in the future according to a questionnaire survey. Numerical studies have shown that 59% cost reduction on the first set can be achieved by the proposed VND algorithm when compared with manual results. Research outcomes of this study have been adopted and implemented to facilitate the sustainable development of the ferry service of Zhuhai Islands.     

Voyage-based statistical fuel consumption models of ocean-going container ships in Korea

ABSTRACT

Accurately estimating fuel consumption of ships is crucial for shipping companies, port authorities, and environmental protection agencies. The bottom-up approach is becoming increasingly popular because it can estimate ship fuel consumption by accounting for ship activity conditions, such as changes in voyage speed, time, and distance; however, its use is still limited when estimating ship fuel consumption. Ship-specific information, such as the daily fuel consumption rate for main and auxiliary engines for every vessel, is expensive to gather, and generally not collected from private shipping companies. To address this research gap, we develop simplified and composite ship fuel consumption models for ocean-going container ships by size using a regression model. To estimate the fuel consumption models for container ships, we rely on ship activity data, including average speed and sailing time, distance, and actual fuel consumption for main and auxiliary engines. This information is obtained from a major container shipping company in Korea. We estimate and validate the parameters associated with fuel consumption for five different container ship sizes, all of which are smaller than the Post-Panamax container ship (15,000 TEU and above).     

Shipboard safety: exploring organizational and regulatory factors

ABSTRACT

How vessel crews perceive safety on board (shipboard safety) is a useful indication for the general safety level. In this study a theoretical model was explored, involving factors that could possibly influence shipboard safety. Based on a survey questionnaire (n = 244), safety climate, shipowner efficiency demands and regulatory activities were investigated as influencing factors. Structural equation modelling gave support to the theoretical model and the findings illustrate that simultaneous involvement of various levels of the maritime system (crews, shipowners, regulators) can be effective for safety improvements. The study indicates that shipboard safety is affected by actions and prioritization by external actors through safety climate. It suggests that the maritime industry will profit from monitoring safety climate as part of the ongoing risk considerations, as a supplement to reactive parameters such as accident statistics.     

URANS simulations of catamaran interference in shallow water

This paper investigates the interference effects of wave systems on a multi-hull vessel in shallow water. A numerical analysis is made using the URANS code CFDSHIP-Iowa V.4 on the DELFT Catamaran model 372. The test matrix for numerical computations includes two separation distances (s = 0.17; 0.23) and the depth values of h/T = 8.2, 2.5 and 2, at several speeds ranging within Fr _H = 0.775–1.739. Numerical results are compared with the experimental data of the Bulgarian Ship Hydrodynamic Center, and verification and validation for resistance, sinkage and trim are also performed. Results show that, at critical speed (Fr _H ≈ 1), the presence of a finite depth significantly affects the catamaran total resistance, which, in shallower water, increases considerably with respect to deep water. At low h/T, small effects of the water depth on resistance occur at subcritical and supercritical speeds. The interference effects seem to be more relevant in shallow, rather than in deep water, with maximum IF values registered at critical speeds (Fr _H ≈ 1). Similarly to deep water, the lower the separation distance the greater the interference value. Moreover, in shallow water some negative interference is observed at Fr > 0.5. Wave patterns and wave profiles are analyzed and a comparison is made between several configurations of catamaran and a mono-hull vessel, in order to analyze how water depth and separation distance determine resistance and interference. Finally, a vortex instability study is also included.     

Next generation mega container ports: implications of traffic composition on sea space demand

ABSTRACT

Demand for sea space brought about by increasing container-shipping traffic has important implications on how this space is managed and used. This is particularly important given the long-term nature, high-asset specificity, high- opportunity cost of investment, and significant economic impact of container port activity on a locality. The challenge is especially pressing for ports, which are facing constraints in seaside capacity where container traffic also has to co-exist with the needs of other types of ship traffic. This challenge is likely be multiplied for next generation container ports, which are expected to handle even larger traffic volumes. These ports are also likely to face competing sea space demands from other economic and social activities especially when they are concurrently major confluences of trade, logistics, and urban populations. This is the first research to investigate in detail the impact and importance of investigating sea space requirements from the perspective of cargo traffic composition and ship capacity. Results show that transshipment containers can generate much higher demand for sea space due to the higher volume of shipping capacity that accompanies such traffic. Sustainability issues and managerial and policy implications pertaining to the development of next generation container ports are provided.     

基于BP神经网络的船舶交通流量预测研究

在分析船舶交通流量特性的基础上,以船舶交通流量控制为最终目标,建立基于BP神经网络的船舶交通流量预测模型,以长江口深水航道的交通流量数据作为训练样本,进行模拟分析。预测结果与实测加权数据进行对比表明,该模型对船舶交通量的预测是有效的。     

Panama Canal expansion and its impact on East and Gulf coast ports of U.S.A.

ABSTRACT

This paper focuses on the Panama Canal expansion and its impact on American port infrastructure for the attention of academic researchers in maritime transportation and supply chain management (SCM). First, it provides a comprehensive background based on a review of pertinent practitioner as well as academic publications. This is followed by a summarization of the impact of this expansion on the infrastructure of the major East and Gulf Coast (EGC) ports, since these stand to be the most affected. Then it presents a categorization scheme for these EGC ports that capture their likelihood of attracting the expected increase in cargo traffic engendered by the expansion; this is preliminarily supported by the latest data on growth in container traffic. The policy implications of this categorization are then discussed and the paper ends by identifying key SCM research problems exposed by the above.     

Traffic impact analysis of inspection area site selection at a foreign trade container terminal

ABSTRACT

To improve the security and efficiency of terminal operations, a key issue for land area layout at a foreign trade container terminal is to plan and design an inspection area. Since it directly affects terminal traffic, while determining inspection area site selection, we should pay a great attention to operations and management of terminal traffic as well as container inspection. This paper employs a system decomposition technique to develop an integrated simulation framework, which enables us to flexibly obtain the whole picture of terminal traffic conditions and evaluate traffic impacts of inspection area site selection. A real-world terminal with typical patterns of land area layout is chosen to carry out a case study, which shows that traffic flow is unevenly distributed on the terminal road network and that the distribution is influenced by truck streams at the terminal. New findings also include: (1) traffic volume at the terminal apron is rather unbalanced in association with the non-continuous utilization of berths; (2) a proper inspection area should be located near the gate if the terminal conditions permit from the perspective of terminal traffic. This work may provide a decision-making reference for the planning and construction of foreign trade container terminals.     

Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative in the Indian subcontinent under future port development scenarios

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is twofold: the first is to assess the extent to which current port development initiatives contribute to securing the status of the Port of Colombo as a regional transshipment (T/S) hub to serve the Indian subcontinent; and the second is to generate plausible future development scenarios for the maritime industry in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). A scenario analysis method is applied to examine the past trends and to build future development scenarios. The results showed that major Indian ports have experienced a significant growth in cargo volumes and vessel traffic. South and East Indian coastal ports continue to use the Port of Colombo as a T/S port in tandem with the corridors connected to the Indian Ocean. Scenario analysis highlights the growing importance of BRI-centric land-based economic corridors, which would generate a large amount of cargos from hinterlands up to China. This would be further fueled through the Great Mekong region-driven industrialization, which would add to the west-bound maritime cargo volume. The paper concludes that the increased capital influx from China would more likely to result in a substantial development of the present port and road/rail infrastructure in Sri Lanka.     

Strain rate sensitive steel constitutive models for finite element analysis of vessel-structure impacts

Civil infrastructure systems such as bridge piers, navigational guide walls, and protection structures that are located near navigable waterways are inherently at risk for being impacted by cargo vessels such as barges and ships. To safely design such systems to possess adequate vessel impact resistance, structural loads associated with potential vessel-structure collision conditions must be quantified in a conservative manner. While high-resolution finite element impact simulations may be employed to compute such loads, care must be exercised in defining the material characteristics of the vessel if conservative structural design loads are to be obtained. Importantly, constitutive relationships assigned to steel components in the vessel model must be capable of accounting for strain rate sensitivities and large-scale plastic deformations.In the present study, strain rate sensitive constitutive models were developed for two types of steel commonly utilized in marine construction in the United States—ASTM A36 and ASTM A1011. Tension tests were conducted over a wide range of strain rates (7.00 × 10⁻⁵ s⁻¹ – 250 s⁻¹) spanning from quasi-static to intermediate and high rates that are typically associated with vessel-structure impact events. A novel testing apparatus—employing an impact pendulum as an energy supply mechanism—was designed for this study to conduct intermediate to high-rate material testing. Features of the apparatus, discussed in this paper, overcome key problems encountered in other studies that have employed impact loading for tensile material testing. From the testing program, representative stress–strain relations and Cowper–Symonds strain rate sensitivity parameters were developed for the materials tested. Rate sensitivities of the two steel grades tested were found to be very similar to each other. Additionally, rate sensitivities from the present study agreed well with ultimate stress data measured in past studies of mild steel, but were found to be less rate-sensitive than yield stress data measured in past studies.     

一种面向海事分支机构的船舶安全管理信息系统的设计

针对直属海事局分支机构船舶安全管理业务的需求，提出一种船舶安全管理信息系统的设计思路。该系统将电子海图平台、船舶交通动态数据和船舶安全管理信息集成，以实现船舶安全管理数字化、信息化、网络化。从系统技术实现角度，对信息管理系统作出详细的设计与分析。     

An empirical model for estimating berth and sailing times of mega container ships

ABSTRACT

We provide two empirical models for calculating the sailing time and berth time of maritime container liner networks to effectively model the ambiguity associated with sea and port contingency for ex-ante decisions of fleet deployment and route planning. The models are based on recorded AIS data of 110 mega vessels including all the operating container mega vessels with a capacity of 16,000 TEU or more during the summer of 2015. The models are able to estimate the sailing time (with R² of 0.974) and the berth time (with R² of 0.895) without knowledge of any operational-level explanatory variables. The models are validated against the published East Asia–North Europe services. Moreover, the study reveals that vessel operators adopt different berthing and sailing strategies even under the same conditions.     

A simulation model for gate operations in multi-purpose cargo terminals

ABSTRACT

A multi-purpose cargo terminal in a seaport contains necessary infrastructure to handle different types of cargo, such as container, dry bulk, general bulk, and Ro-Ro. Since such terminals generally have dedicated areas and equipment for different types of cargo, berth, and yard operations for each type of cargo can be considered separate. On the other hand, trucks that carry all types of cargo use the same gate structure to enter and leave the terminal. Therefore, a method to superimpose the traffic that is caused by different types of cargo is needed for the planning of gate investments and operations. Consequently, this paper has developed a simulation model for a multi-purpose terminal to estimate the gate traffic and determine the necessary gate infrastructure, so that it can be used as a decision support tool for terminal planners and operational managers.     

Impact scenario models for probabilistic risk-based design for ship–ship collision

A number of authors have proposed probabilistic risk based ship design for ship–ship collision, conditional to the local trading area of a vessel. The probability of collision and consequences are determined based on the traffic conditions in which a vessel is expected to operate. This paper investigates the adequacy of currently available models for impact scenarios, i.e. models linking the traffic conditions to the conditions at the moment of collision. An exploratory statistical model is presented to establish such a link. A probabilistic risk based design case study is performed for a fleet of RoPax vessels trading on a specified route in the Gulf of Finland. The available impact scenario models from the literature are compared with the developed probabilistic evasive maneuvering model. The results show that the impact scenario models have a very significant influence to the calculated hull breach probabilities. No well-justified impact scenario models are presently available and also the presented probabilistic evasive maneuvering model is burdened with uncertainty. Hence, to move toward a probabilistic risk based ship design paradigm for ship–ship collision in a local trading area, more focus and research is needed to establish a credible link.     

Development of ship sinking frequency model over Subsea Pipeline for Madura Strait using AIS data

It is important to study the risk posed by heavy shipping traffic to a subsea pipeline located near an industrial port area. In this context, it is essential to estimate the accident frequency in an attempt to eliminate subjectivity in the analysis process. This study proposes a model for estimating the ship sinking frequency over the subsea pipeline in the Madura Strait area. The Madura Strait is one of the busiest shipping lanes in Indonesia. Many ships pass through the fairway in the strait, and many industrial ports have been built in this area. The proposed model is developed based on Fujii’s Model, and it uses Automatic Identification System (AIS) data as a ship traffic survey. Ship sinking accidents are considered based on ship–ship collisions over the critical subsea pipeline area. The ship–ship collision locations around the subsea pipeline and the ship traffic distribution models are estimated using AIS data. The causation probability Pc is determined based on a synthetics approach using a Bayesian network modified from Det Norske Veritas’ and Hänninen’s models. The causation probability is estimated by considering factors such as human performance, weather, technical problems, and support. The proposed model is validated by comparing its result with actual accident records for the Madura Strait area. The ratio value of 0.33 is considered to be reasonably agreement (ratio value ≥0.2).     

基于支持向量机的船舶交通流量预测模型

针对船舶交通流的随机性大,影响因素多,船舶交通流量预测的准确度不高等现象,基于支持向量机理论,结合长江苏通大桥断面的观测数据,建立支持向量机的预测模型进行短期的船舶流量预测.预测结果与实际流量比较一致,优于SPSS线性回归的预测效果.验证了支持向量机预测模型在船舶流量短期预测中的可行性.     

台湾海峡船舶交通流的调查与分析

采用雷达观测方法获取台湾海峡船舶交通实况,应用自行开发的基于电子海图的观测数据与分析软件进行数据处理,分析台湾海峡船舶交通流分布,建立交通流模型,揭示台湾海峡船舶交通流特点和潜在危险。其调查与分析结果为实施台湾海峡船舶交通管理措施提供科学依据。     

Modelling the investment decision of the entrepreneur in the tanker sector: choosing between a second-hand vessel and a newly built one

It is often the case that the investor in the shipping sector faces the dilemma of investing in a second-hand vessel or building a new one. This happens because an active second-hand market for almost all kinds of vessels exists. We argue that one of the prime considerations for the investment decision should not be the price of the vessel per se, second-hand (SH) or newly built (NP) but

• ?(a)?the relative price ratio (SH/NP) second-hand price over the new building price and

• ?(b)?the movement of this ratio.

We investigate the determinants of this ratio across different vessel sizes in the tanker sector and show that it can be used as an effective tool in investment decision as well as in asset appraisal.

We employ monthly data between 1995 and 2006 for four different ship sizes–VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax and Handysize–and implement an error correction model.

The investment decision depends on a number of risk and return variables as well as the perceived speed of adjustment of the price ratio to its equilibrium level.

Overall we claim that the cyclicality of the shipping sector together with expectations formed by the agents operating in it (the entrepreneur, the ship-owner and the broker), determine the movement of the ratio and hence the decision of the entrepreneur.     

VTS系统在航道交通管理中的应用研究

针对目前港口航道交通管理的要求,探讨如何利用VTS系统对航道船舶交通和浮标实施有效的安全监控。利用航道水文气象数据通过具体的管理监控方法研究和报警装置的设置,对合理组织船舶交通、预防船舶误航、船舶航行动态信息提供等进行了研究和探讨。     

船舶交通动力系统安全突变研究

为揭示系统本质,建立船舶交通风险预控机制,基于突变理论对船舶交通系统的安全突变进行研究。首先定性分析了船舶交通系统的特性,并针对动态性与突变性特征,提出船舶交通系统的突变动力学研究方法,进而建立船舶交通动力系统安全突变模型,最后对系统的安全突变进行了定量的分析研究。