Modelling the spatial and temporal variability of the Cretan Sea ecosystem

The ecosystem function of the oligotrophic Cretan Sea is explored through the development and application of a 3D ecological model. The simulation system comprises of two on-line coupled submodels: the 3D Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and the 1D European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) adapted to the Cretan Sea. For the tuning and initialisation of the ecosystem parameters, the 1D version of the biogeochemical model is used.After a model spin up period of 10 years to reach a quasi-steady state, the results from an annual simulation are presented. A cost function is used as validation method for the comparison of model results with field data. The estimated annual primary and bacteria production are found to be in the range of the reported values. Simulation results are in good agreement with in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the ecosystem.     

Description of a flexible and extendable physical–biogeochemical model system for the water column

A modelling system for coupled physical–biogeochemical simulations in the water column is presented here. The physical model component allows for a number of different statistical turbulence closure schemes, ranging from simple algebraic closures to two-equation turbulence models with algebraic second-moment closures. The biogeochemical module consists of models which are based on a number of state variables represented by their ensemble averaged concentrations. Specific biogeochemical models may range from simple NPZ (nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton) to complex ecosystem models. Recently developed modified Patankar solvers for ordinary differential equations allow for stable discretisations of the production and destruction terms guaranteeing conservative and non-negative solutions. The increased stability of these new solvers over explicit solvers is demonstrated for a plankton spring bloom simulation. The model system is applied to marine ecosystem dynamics the Northern North Sea and the Central Gotland Sea. Two different biogeochemical models are applied, a conservative nitrogen-based model to the North Sea, and a more complex model including an oxygen equation to the Baltic Sea, allowing for the reproduction of chemical processes under anoxic conditions. For both applications, earlier model results obtained with slightly different model setups could be basically reproduced. It became however clear that the choice for ecosystem model parameters such as maximum phytoplankton growth rates does strongly depend on the physical model parameters (such as turbulence closure models or external forcing).     

Preoperational ocean forecasting in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea: Implementation and evaluation of the models and selection of the atmospheric forcing

Within the framework of several local and international programs, a quasi-operational ocean-forecasting system for the Southeastern Mediterranean Sea has been established and evaluated through a series of preoperational tests. The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is used for simulating and predicting the hydrodynamics while the Wave Model (WAM) is used for predicting surface waves. Both models were set up to allow varying resolution and multiple nesting. In addition, POM was set up to be easily relocatable to allow rapid deployment of the model for any region of interest within the Mediterranean Sea. A common requirement for both models is the need for atmospheric forcing. Both models require time varying wind or wind stress. In addition, the hydrodynamic model requires initial conditions as well as time dependent surface heat fluxes, fresh water flux, and lateral boundary conditions at the open boundaries. Several sources of atmospheric forcing have been assessed based on their availability and their impact on the quality of the ocean models' forecasts. The various sources include operational forecast centers, other research centers, as well as running an in-house regional atmospheric model. For surface waves, higher spatial and temporal resolution of the winds plays a central role in improving the forecasts in terms of significant wave height and the timing of various high wave events. For the hydrodynamics, using the predicted wind stress and heat fluxes directly from an atmospheric model can potentially produce short range ocean forecasts that are nearly as good as hindcasts forced with gridded atmospheric analyses. Finally, a high-resolution, nested version of the model has shown to be stable under a variety of forcing conditions and time scales, thus indicating the robustness of the selected nesting strategy. For the southeastern corner of the Mediterranean, at forecast lead times of up to 4 days the high-resolution model shows improved skill over the coarser resolution driving model when compared to satellite derived sea surface temperatures. Most of the error appears to be due to the analysis error inherent in the initial conditions.     

The Mercator global ocean operational analysis system: Assessment and validation of an 11-year reanalysis

This paper presents Prototype Système 2 Global (PSY2G), the first Mercator global Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) to assimilate along-track sea level anomaly (SLA) satellite data. Based on a coarse resolution ocean model, this system was developed mainly for climatic purposes and will provide, for example, initial oceanic states for coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal predictions. It has been operational since 3 September 2003 and produces an analysis and a two-week forecast for the global ocean every week. The PSY2G system uses an incremental assimilation scheme based on the Cooper and Haines [Cooper, M., Haines, K., 1996. Data assimilation with water property conservation. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 1059-1077.] lifting–lowering of isopycnals. The SLA increment is obtained using an optimal interpolation method then the correction is partitioned into baroclinic and barotropic contributions. The baroclinic ocean state correction consists of temperature, salinity and geostrophic velocity increments and the barotropic correction is a barotropic velocity increment. A reanalysis (1993–2003) was carried out that enabled the PSY2G system to perform its first operational cycle. All available SLA data sets (TOPEX/Poséïdon, ERS2, Geosat-Follow-On, Jason1 and Envisat) were assimilated for the 1993–2003 period. The major objective of this study is to assess the reanalysis from both an assimilation and a thermodynamic point of view in order to evaluate its realism, especially in the tropical band which is a key region for climatic studies. Although the system is also able to deliver forecasts, we have mainly focused on analysis. These results are useful because they give an a priori estimation of the qualities and capabilities of the operational ocean analysis system that has been implemented. In particular, the reanalysis identifies some regional biases in sea level variability such as near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, in the eastern Equatorial Pacific and in the Norwegian Sea (generally less than 1 cm) with a small seasonal cycle. This is attributed to changes in mean circulation and vertical stratification caused by the assimilation methodology. But the model's low resolution, inaccurate physical parameterisations (especially for ocean–ice interactions) and surface atmospheric forcing also contribute to the occurrence of the SLA biases. A detailed analysis of the thermohaline structure of the ocean reveals that the isopycnal lifting–lowering tends to diffuse vertically the main thermocline. The impact on temperature is that the surface layer (0–200 m) becomes cooler whereas in deeper waters (from 500 to 1500 m), the ocean becomes slightly warmer. This is particularly true in the tropics, between 30°N and 30°S. However it can be demonstrated that the assimilation improves the variability in both surface currents and sub-surface temperature in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.     

Multigrid state vector for data assimilation in a two-way nested model of the Ligurian Sea

A system of two nested models composed by a coarse resolution model of the Mediterranean Sea, an intermediate resolution model of the Provençal Basin and a high resolution model of the Ligurian Sea is coupled with a Kalman-filter based assimilation method. The state vector for the data assimilation is composed by the temperature, salinity and elevation of the three models. The forecast error is estimated by an ensemble run of 200 members by perturbing initial condition and atmospheric forcings. The 50 dominant empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) are taken as the error covariance of the model forecast. This error covariance is assumed to be constant in time. Sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) are assimilated in this system.     

Rail infrastructure,ITS and access charges

This paper presents an overview of the principles and technologies relating to railway infrastructure. Specifically this paper includes rail–wheel contact, inspection and maintenance of rail. Intelligent transport systems (ITS) and their applications for the purposes of the railway transport in Europe are discussed. The potential, levels of development, technological and operational characteristics of the European Railway Traffic Management System (ERTMS) are presented. Finally, a discussion on methodologies, principles and current practices for access charging in Europe is provided.     

A generalized model of pelagic biogeochemistry for the global ocean ecosystem. Part I: Theory

The set of equations for global ocean biogeochemistry deterministic models have been formulated in a comprehensive and unified form in order to use them in numerical simulations of the marine ecosystem for climate change studies (PELAGOS, PELAgic biogeochemistry for Global Ocean Simulations). The fundamental approach stems from the representation of marine trophic interactions and major biogeochemical cycles introduced in the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM). Our theoretical formulation revisits and generalizes the stoichiometric approach of ERSEM by defining the state variables as Chemical Functional Families (CFF). CFFs are further subdivided into living, non-living and inorganic components. Living CFFs are the basis for the definition of Living Functional Groups, the biomass-based functional prototype of the real organisms. Both CFFs and LFGs are theoretical constructs which allow us to relate measurable properties of marine biogeochemistry to the state variables used in deterministic models. This approach is sufficiently generic that may be used to describe other existing biomass-based ecosystem model.     

Bayesian statistical data assimilation for ecosystem models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

This study considers advanced statistical approaches for sequential data assimilation. These are explored in the context of nowcasting and forecasting using nonlinear differential equation based marine ecosystem models assimilating sparse and noisy non-Gaussian multivariate observations. The statistical framework uses a state space model with the goal of estimating the time evolving probability distribution of the ecosystem state. Assimilation of observations relies on stochastic dynamic prediction and Bayesian principles. In this study, a new sequential data assimilation approach is introduced based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The ecosystem state is represented by an ensemble, or sample, from which distributional properties, or summary statistical measures, can be derived. The Metropolis-Hastings based MCMC approach is compared and contrasted with two other sequential data assimilation approaches: sequential importance resampling, and the (approximate) ensemble Kalman filter (including computational comparisons). A simple illustrative application is provided based on a 0-D nonlinear plankton ecosystem model with multivariate non-Gaussian observations of the ecosystem state from a coastal ocean observatory. The MCMC approach is shown to be straightforward to implement and to effectively characterize the non-Gaussian ecosystem state in both nowcast and forecast experiments. Results are reported which illustrate how non-Gaussian information originates, and how it can be used to characterize ecosystem properties.     

Improving the physics of a coupled physical–biogeochemical model of the North Atlantic through data assimilation: Impact on the ecosystem

Several studies on coupled physical–biogeochemical models have shown that major deficiencies in the biogeochemical fields arise from the deficiencies in the physical flow fields. This paper examines the improvement of the physics through data assimilation, and the subsequent impact on the ecosystem response in a coupled model of the North Atlantic. Sea surface temperature and sea surface height data are assimilated with a sequential method based on the SEEK filter adapted to the coupling needs. The model domain covers the Atlantic from 20°S to 70°N at eddy-permitting resolution. The biogeochemical model is a NPZD-DOM model based on the P3ZD formulation. The results of an annual assimilated simulation are compared with an annual free simulation.With assimilation, the representation of the mixed layer depth is significantly improved in mid latitudes, even though the mixed layer depth is generally overestimated compared to the observations. The representation of the mean and variance of the currents is also significantly improved.The nutrient input in the euphotic zone is used to assess the data assimilation impact on the ecosystem. Data assimilation results in a 50% reduction of the input due to vertical mixing in mid-latitudes, and in a four- to six-fold increase of the advective fluxes in mid-latitudes and subtropics. Averaged zonally, the net impact is a threefold increase for the subtropical gyre, and a moderate (20–30%) decrease at mid and high latitudes.Surface chlorophyll concentration increases along the subtropical gyre borders, but little changes are detected at mid and high latitudes. An increase of the primary production appears along the Gulf Stream path, but it represents only 12% on average for mid and high latitudes. In the subtropical gyre centre, primary production is augmented but stays underestimated (20% of observations). These experiments show the benefits of physical data assimilation in coupled physical–biogeochemical applications.     

Planktonic community structure and carbon cycling in the Arabian Sea as a result of monsoonal forcing: the application of a generic model

The Arabian Sea exhibits a complex pattern of biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, which vary both seasonally and spatially. These dynamics have been studied using a one-dimensional vertical hydrodynamic model coupled to a complex ecosystem model, simulating the annual cycle at three contrasting stations. These stations are characterised by seasonally upwelling, mixed-layer-deepening and a-seasonal oligotrophic conditions, respectively, and coincide with extensively measured stations on the two JGOFS ARABESQUE cruises in 1994. The model reproduces many spatial and temporal trends in production, biomass, physical and chemical properties, both qualitatively and quantitatively and so gives insight into the main mechanisms responsible for the biogeochemical and ecological complexity. Monsoonal systems are typified by classical food web dynamics, whilst intermonsoonal and oligotrophic systems are dominated by the microbial loop. The ecosystem model (ERSEM), developed for temperate regions, is found to be applicable to the Arabian Sea system with little reparameterisation. Differences in in-situ physical forcing are sufficient to recreate contrasting eutrophic and oligotrophic systems, although the lack of lateral terms are probably the greatest source of error in the model. Physics, nutrients, light and grazing are all shown to play a role in controlling production and community structure. Small-celled phytoplanktons are predicted to be dominant and sub-surface chlorophyll maxima are robust centers of production during intermonsoon periods. Analysis of carbon fluxes indicate that physically driven outgassing of CO₂ predominates in monsoonal upwelling systems but ecological activity may significantly moderate CO₂ outgassing in the Arabian Sea interior.     

Statistical modelling for ship propulsion efficiency

This paper presents a state-of-the-art systems approach to statistical modelling of fuel efficiency in ship propulsion, and also a novel and publicly available data set of high quality sensory data. Two statistical model approaches are investigated and compared: artificial neural networks and Gaussian processes (GP). The data presented is a publicly available full-scale data set, with a whole range of features sampled over a period of 2 months. We further discuss interpretations of the operational data in relation to the underlying physical system.     

鱼雷装备任务效能评估仿真研究

鱼雷装备任务效能是衡量鱼雷完成作战任务能力的重要指标。在分析鱼雷作战任务特点的基础上,提出基于离散事件仿真的方式对鱼雷装备执行作战任务的动态过程建立仿真模型,充分考虑装载阶段鱼雷的储存可靠性和不同阶段作战过程装备的实际运行状况,通过仿真计算得到鱼雷全任务周期的任务可靠性,进而对鱼雷装备任务效能进行评价,为鱼雷装备研制初期的系统设计和可靠性分配提供科学依据。     

A 3D, finite element model for baroclinic circulation on the Vancouver Island continental shelf

This paper describes the development and application of a 3-dimensional model of the barotropic and baroclinic circulation on the continental shelf west of Vancouver Island, Canada. A previous study with a 2D barotropic model and field data revealed that several tidal constituents have a significant baroclinic component (the K1 in particular). Thus we embarked on another study with a 3D model to study the baroclinic effects on the residual and several selected tidal constituents.The 3D model uses a harmonic expansion in time and a finite element discretization in space. All nonlinear terms are retained, including quadratic bottom stress, advection and wave transport (continuity nonlinearity). The equations are solved as a global and a local problem, where the global problem is the solution of the wave equation formulation of the shallow water equations, and the local problem is the solution of the momentum equation for the vertical velocity profile. These equations are coupled to the advection-diffusion equation for density so that density gradient forcing is included in the momentum equations. However, the study presented here describes diagnostic calculations for the baroclinic residual circulation only.The model is sufficiently efficient that it encourages sensitivity testing with a large number of model runs. In this sense, the model is akin to an extension of analytical solutions to the domain of irregular geometry and bottom topography where this parameter space can be explored in some detail.In particular, the consequences of the sigma coordinate system used by the model are explored. Test cases using an idealized representation of the continental shelf, shelf break and shelf slope, lead to an estimation of the velocity errors caused by interpolation errors inherent in the sigma coordinate system. On the basis of these estimates, the computational grid used in the 2D model is found to have inadequate resolution. Thus a new grid is generated with increased accuracy in the region of the shelf break. However, even with increased resolution, spurious baroclinic circulation seaward of the shelf break and in the vicinity of Juan de Fuca canyon remained a significant problem when the pressure gradient terms were evaluated using the σ coordinate system and using a realistic density profile.With the new grid, diagnostic calculations of the barotropic and baroclinic residual circulation are performed using forcing from the observed σ_t (density) field and from the gradient of this field.     

On the key role of nutrient data to constrain a coupled physical–biogeochemical assimilative model of the North Atlantic Ocean

A sequential assimilative system has been implemented into a coupled physical–biogeochemical model (CPBM) of the North Atlantic basin at eddy-permitting resolution (1/4°), with the long-term goal of estimating the basin scale patterns of the oceanic primary production and their seasonal variability. The assimilation system, which is based on the SEEK filter [Brasseur, P., Verron, J., 2006. The SEEK filter method for data assimilation in oceanography: a synthesis. Ocean Dynamics. doi: 10.1007/s10236-006-0080-3], has been adapted to this CPBM in order to control the physical and biogeochemical components of the coupled model separately or in combination. The assimilated data are the satellite Topex/Poseidon and ERS altimetric data, the AVHRR Sea Surface Temperature observations, and the Levitus climatology for salinity, temperature and nitrate.In the present study, different assimilation experiments are conducted to assess the relative usefulness of the assimilated data to improve the representation of the primary production by the CPBM. Consistently with the results obtained by Berline et al. [Berline, L., Brankart, J-M., Brasseur, P., Ourmières, Y., Verron, J., 2007. Improving the physics of a coupled physical–biogeochemical model of the North Atlantic through data assimilation: impact on the ecosystem. J. Mar. Syst. 64 (1–4), 153–172] with a comparable assimilative model, it is shown that the assimilation of physical data alone can improve the representation of the mixed layer depth, but the impact on the ecosystem is rather weak. In some situations, the physical data assimilation can even worsen the ecosystem response for areas where the prior nutrient distribution is significantly incorrect. However, these experiments also show that the combined assimilation of physical and nutrient data has a positive impact on the phytoplankton patterns by comparison with SeaWiFS ocean colour data, demonstrating the good complementarity between SST, altimetry and in situ nutrient data. These results suggest that more intensive in situ measurements of biogeochemical nutrients are urgently needed at basin scale to initiate a permanent monitoring of oceanic ecosystems.     

1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25–75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to (a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and (b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean – topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.     

A medium-resolution wave hindcast study over the Central and Western Mediterranean Sea

The present study is aimed at determining the confidence limits of design wave parameters derived from numerical modeling—for both extremes and operational conditions—over the Central and Western Mediterranean Sea. The paper presents the methodology and results of an extensive validation activity conducted on a chain of medium-resolution third-generation wave models used for hindcast purposes. The stringent requirements of state-of-the-art coastal and offshore engineering applications over this area make the adoption of medium- or high-resolution hindcast wave and wind models almost mandatory because of the complex coastal geometry, bathymetry, and orography that in turn lead to large variations of the design wave parameters even within small regions. The chains of nested meteorological and wave models used in this hindcast study belong to the ETA and WaveWatch III families, respectively. In this study the wind and wave numerical models have been run over the past 20 years, with increasing resolutions of the wave models from 0.2° up to 0.04°. The results presented herein have 0.1° resolution for both wind and wave models. The wave data obtained are compared with available measurements from 14 wave buoys in coastal zones in the Central and Western Mediterranean Sea.     

Influence of horizontal model grid resolution on the simulated primary production in an embedded primary production model in the Norwegian Sea

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of horizontal grid resolution in a physical model on an embedded primary production model. The area for the experiment was along the west coast of Norway, from 60° N to 70° N, an area of high mesoscale activity. The HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model was coupled with the NORWegian ECOlogical Model system, and run in a nested system, consisting of three model grids with horizontal resolution of 50 km, 16 km and 4.5 km (hereafter: COARSE, MEDIUM and FINE) in the focus area. Two main results were obtained, first, the composition of the phytoplankton functional groups changed with increasing model grid resolution. In FINE, the diatoms produced a larger part (60%) of the total annual primary production than the flagellates, whereas in COARSE and MEDIUM, the primary production from the two phytoplankton groups was the same. This was explained by a higher transport of silicate into the euphotic layer in FINE compared to the other two. Second, the differences in the primary production first became large when the resolution of the model grid reached the Rossby radius of deformation. Whereas the total net primary production in MEDIUM only was 5% larger than in COARSE, the total net primary production in FINE was 20% higher than in COARSE. This was explained by the models ability to resolve mesoscale activity.     

Applications of a new ecosystem model to study the dynamics of phytoplankton and nutrients in the Ariake Sea,west coast of Kyushu,Japan

In this study, we present the development and application of a new ecosystem model coupled with a hydrodynamic model to describe the important physical, chemical and biological processes of an ecosystem in the marine environment, the Ariake Sea in the west coast of Kyushu, Japan. The model was calibrated and validated using in-situ field measurements from various monitoring stations in the sea. The presented results covered the period from January 1991 to December 2000. The results showed that chlorophyll-a, nutrients and dissolved oxygen levels varied seasonally in response to weather and boundary condition. Through this study, the model was shown to be able to handle the flooding and drying processes that usually exist and play an essential role over the estuarine-tidal flats of the sea.     

Wave energy assessments in the Black Sea

The present work aims to evaluate the wave energy resources in the Black Sea basin. The study is focused on the western part of the sea, which is traditionally considered as being more energetic. In order to give a first perspective of the wave climate, a medium-term wave analysis was carried out using in situ measured data. As a further step, a wave prediction system was implemented for the Black Sea. This was based on the simulating waves near-shore model, which is used for both wave generation and near-shore transformation. This methodology has the advantage that a single model covers the full scale of the modelling process. Various tests were performed considering data measured at three different locations. Special attention was paid to the whitecapping process, which is still widely considered to be the weak link in deep water wave modelling. Comparisons carried out against measured data show that the wave prediction system generally provides reliable results, especially in terms of significant wave heights and mean periods. By increasing the resolution in geographical space, the field distributions of wave energy were analysed for both high and average wave conditions. The analysis and the wave prediction system developed are a prerequisite for further investigations extended in time and with increased resolution in the near-shore direction.     

Numerical prediction of the surf-riding threshold of a ship in stern quartering waves in the light of bifurcation theory

In order to develop design and operational criteria to be used at the International Maritime Organization (IMO), critical conditions for broaching are explored in the light of bifurcation analysis. Since surf-riding, which is a prerequisite to broaching, can be regarded as a heteroclinic bifurcation, one of global bifurcations, of a surge-sway-yaw-roll model in quartering waves, the relevant bifurcation condition is formulated with a rigorous mathematical background. Then an efficient numerical solution procedure suitable for tracing the surf-riding threshold hypersurface is presented with successful examples. This deals with all state and control variables in parallel, and excludes backward time integration and an orthogonal condition in the iteration process. The bifurcation conditions identified were compared with the results from a direct numerical simulation in the time domain. As a result, it was confirmed that the heteroclinic bifurcation provides a boundary between motions periodically overtaken by waves and nonperiodic motions such as surf-riding and broaching.