Choosing the wrong technology: Or how to spend billions and reduce transit use

In spite of a broad consensus among transportation analysts that bus rapid transit, whether operating on exclusive rights-of-way or on uncongested high occupancy vehicle lanes or general purpose limited access facilities, provides higher performance and has significantly lower costs per passenger trip than rail transit in medium and low density cities, nearly all Sunbelt cities are building or planning heavy or light rail systems. This paper reviews previous studies of the cost-effectiveness of heavy and light rail transit with bus-rapid transit and the growing experience with busways and transitways and concludes, once again, that some form of bus rapid transit would be a far more effective way of providing improved transit in these cities than heavy or light rail transit. Not only would bus rapid transit be substantially cheaper, but it would provide a higher quality of service than light or heavy rail transit for virtually all users. Finally, the paper speculates on the reasons for the continued, “blind” commitment to rail transit by policymakers in Sunbelt cities and on the refusal of policymakers in all but a few of these cities to even consider bus rapid transit.     

Examining the relationship between built environment and metro ridership at station-to-station level

Very few studies have examined the impact of built environment on urban rail transit ridership at the station-to-station (origin-destination) level. Moreover, most direct ridership models (DRMs) tend to involve simple a prior assumed linear or log-linear relationship in which the estimated parameters are assumed to hold across the entire data space of the explanatory variables. These models cannot detect any changes in the linear (or non-linear) effects across different values of the features of built environment on urban rail transit ridership, which possibly induces biased results and hides some non-negligible and detailed information. Based on these research gaps, this study develops a time-of-day origin-destination DRM that uses smart card data pertaining to the Nanjing metro system, China. It applies a gradient boosting regression trees model to provide a more refined data mining approach to investigate the non-linear associations between features of the built environment and station-to-station ridership. Data related to the built environment, station type, demographics, and travel impedance including a less used variable – detour, were collected and used in the analysis. The empirical results show that most independent variables are associated with station-to-station ridership in a discontinuous non-linear way, regardless of the time period. The built environment on the origin side has a larger effect on station-to-station ridership than the built environment on the destination side for the morning peak hours, while the opposite holds for the afternoon peak hours and night. The results also indicate that transfer times is more important variables than detour and route distance.     

Light rail transit in the United States

In recent years interest in light rail transit has grown substantially in the United States. The concept of LRT is increasingly viewed as a possible answer to the search for a less costly rail transit technology that could reduce America's dependency on the private automobile and put the country on the road to a more secure, self-sufficient energy future. The paper reviews recent LRT developments in four American cities, two of which have undertaken to rehabilitate and upgrade their existing surface street railway systems, and the other two have embarked upon construction of entirely new light rail systems.     

城市轨道交通地下车站及区间中消防设计的有关问题

本文结合各地轨道交通工程建设的实况,详细分析了国内现有轨道交通地下车站消防设计模式的差异性,并就如何使地下车站布局对人员疏散及消防扑救更为有利的问题进行了论述。     

Evaluating light rail sketch planning: actual versus predicted station boardings in Phoenix

In recent years, transit planners are increasingly turning to simpler, faster, and more spatially detailed “sketch planning” or “direct demand” models for forecasting rail transit boardings. Planners use these models for preliminary review of corridors and analysis of station-area effects, instead of or prior to four-step regional travel demand models. This paper uses a sketch-planning model based on a multiple regression originally fitted to light-rail ridership data for 268 stations in nine U.S. cities, and applies it predictively to the Phoenix, Arizona light-rail starter line that opened in December, 2008. The independent variables in the regression model include station-specific trip generation and intermodal–access variables as well as system-wide variables measuring network structure, climate, and metropolitan-area factors. Here we compare the predictions we made before and after construction began to pre-construction Valley Metro Rail predictions and to the actual boardings data for the system’s first 6 months of operations. Depending on the assumed number of bus lines at each station, the predicted total weekday ridership ranged from 24,767 to 37,907 compared with the average of 33,698 for the first 6 months, while the correlation of predicted and observed station boardings ranged from r = 0.33 to 0.47. Sports venues, universities, end-of-line stations, and the number of bus lines serving each station appear to account for the major over- and under-predictions at the station level.     

东京涩谷站TOD开发模式及其借鉴意义

中国的城市建设已经由原有的扩张阶段,转入了对存量的提质增效阶段。相应地,我国各大城市的轨道交通也进入了新的发展时期,以TOD为核心理念的公共交通开发模式开始受到政府和专家学者的重视。本文以东京涩谷站中心及周边地区基础设施更新建设为重点案例,分析涩谷站更新建设过程中的制度保障、战略目标和开发内容,总结其开发的特色和优势,并结合我国实际,探讨轨道交通站点的开发策略,以期为未来中国城市轨道交通站点的开发提供借鉴。     

Light rail transit in Canada

This paper describes current light rail transit planning and operation in Canada's major cities and smaller communities. There are ten urban areas in Canada with 250,000 or more people. Two of these have light rail systems in operation, three have lines under construction and nine others are planning LRT systems.     

山地旅游轨道交通线路规划的适应性评价

山地景区地势复杂,其发展普遍受交通所限,为了提高山地景区的运营效益、带动经济发展,国内部分景区规划和修建了山地旅游轨道交通。本文列举了山地旅游轨道交通特征及线路规划模式,从地理环境、自然环境、供需环境及与常规公交的关系四个角度分析,对应建立四个子系统,并选取具有山地旅游轨道交通特性的评价指标体系,利用层次分析法和变异系数法组合赋权重,运用灰色关联分析法的评价模型,据此判断线路规划方案适应性的优劣。     

Toward criteria in the development of urban transportation systems

Improved criteria are necessary to aid in determining awards of federal funds for metropolitan transit projects. Commuting is the main use for public transit. Thus a primary objective of an urban transit system should be to provide a flexible and balanced set of options to the workers in the metropolitan area for their journey to work. This paper discusses various facets of an appropriate balance among the three modes: rapid rail, bus, and automobile. Three cities are selected for further analysis: Baltimore, Kansas City, and Phoenix. These cities represent different stages in economic-transportation development, and also present different spatial patterns of residence and employment. The applicability of rapid rail transit to each city is examined in view of central city worker concentration and recent trends.     

Factors affecting car ownership and mode choice in rail transit-supported suburbs of a large Chinese city

As Chinese cities continue to grow rapidly and their newly developed suburbs continue to accommodate most of the enormous population increase, rail transit is seen as the key to counter automobile dependence. This paper examines the effects of rail transit-supported urban expansion using travel survey data collected from residents in four Shanghai suburban neighborhoods, including three located near metro stations. Estimated binary logit model of car ownership and nested logit model of commuting mode choice reveal that: (1) proximity to metro stations has a significant positive association with the choice of rail transit as primary commuting mode, but its association with car ownership is insignificant; (2) income, job status, and transportation subsidy are all positively associated with the probabilities of owning car and driving it to work; (3) higher population density in work location relates positively to the likelihood of commuting by the metro, but does not show a significant relationship with car ownership; (4) longer commuting distance is strongly associated with higher probabilities of riding the metro, rather than driving, to work; (5) considerations of money, time, comfort, and safety appear to exert measurable influences on car ownership and mode choice in the expected directions, and the intention to ride the metro for commuting is reflected in its actual use as primary mode for journey to work. These results strongly suggest that rail transit-supported urban expansion can produce important positive outcomes, and that this strategic approach can be effectively facilitated by transportation policies and land use plans, as well as complemented by timely provision of high quality rail transit service to suburban residents.     

Transit system evaluation: Guideway bus vs. light rail transit

This paper describes a set of specialized spreadsheets that model the cost and performance of transit system options including light rail transit, guideway bus, express bus, and ride sharing. These spreadsheets are demonstrated by comparing a guideway bus (GWB) transit system and a light rail transit (LRT) system proposed for construction in an active rail corridor. The comparisons for assumed levels of transit ridership include guideway geometry, travel time, headways, vehicle requirements, grade crossing protection, and capital and operating costs. The planned GWB system runs on an exclusive dual guideway in the rail right-of-way, and the alternative LRT system operates on the existing rails with new bridges and track as needed for a dual guideway system. The analysis compares the two options for mode splits between 0.5% and 50%. Results show that while both options have approximately the same travel time, the GWB system costs approximately 30% less than the LRT system. The cost difference results primarily from lower GWB vehicle purchase and operating costs. The spreadsheets are available through the McTrans Center at the University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida.     

Evaluation of transit proximity effects on residential land prices: an empirical study in Austin,Texas

The Austin MetroRail line in Texas, U.S.A. began operations in 2010 and since then transit-oriented development projects have been fuelled around train stations. Traditional location theory holds that proximity to a transit station should be capitalized into land prices, and numerous empirical studies have demonstrated the effects with mixed results. However, to date no empirical study has investigated this relationship between the newly built rail line and land prices in Austin. This study fills the research gap and suggests a positive effect associated with transit proximity by employing spatial hedonic models. This study also contributes to the existing literature especially in the context of Texas cities where there is a lack of relevant research on transit-capitalization-related topics, and provides insights for decision-makers with different perspectives regarding further rail investment or transportation financing strategies such as value capture programs.     

A multiple criteria approach for the evaluation of the rail transit networks in Istanbul

The deficiencies in the Istanbul transportation system have led the local authorities to plan several alternative transportation projects. In this paper three alternative rail transit network proposals are evaluated by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple criteria decision support system. The AHP facilitates decision-making by organizing perceptions, experiences, knowledge and judgments, the forces that influence the decision, into a hierarchical framework with a goal, scenarios, criteria and alternatives of choice. Based on this analysis, the decision makers have developed a new alternative as a combination of the most closely competing two alternative rail transit networks. This combination rail transit network is currently under construction.     

Testing the decentralization effects of rail systems: Empirical findings from Israel

Many sustainable urban development approaches are based on mass public transportation ventures, especially railway development, which has been considered a panacea for the unfavorable effects of suburban development. But rail transit also improves accessibility to the fringes, thus encouraging an exodus to the suburbs. This paper explores suburbanization and sprawling effect of commuter rail transit on the rural exurbia of the Tel Aviv metropolis by analyzing its effect on residential location decisions. The findings indicate that the suburban rail system was a determinant factor in the location choice of households which migrated from the inner parts of the Tel Aviv metropolis, since it allowed them to maintain strong commuting connections to their residential origin. This suggests that rail transit, along with its potential to strengthen the inner cities, also accelerates suburbanization and counter urbanization.     

Can value capture work in a car dependent city? Willingness to pay for transit access in Perth,Western Australia

This paper investigates the impact of transit on urban land markets in the highly car dependent corridors of Perth with a focus on where new fast rail transit services have recently been built. It determines people’s willingness to pay for transit access within different pedestrian catchments for each of the corridors based on hedonic price modelling using land value data on over 460,000 households. The case study uses cross sectional and panel data hedonic price modelling methodology for the calculation of willingness to pay for transit. It finds that land market increases of up to 40% can be achieved, and is particularly relevant to car dependent cities looking to capture the financial and economic value created to build transit extensions or entirely new systems, thus making a strong case for value capture funding of transit projects into car dependent suburbs and the potential for density increases near stations.     

Urban mobility in the developing world

Mobility and accessibility are declining rapidly in most of the developing world. The issues that affect levels of mobility and possibilities for its improvement are varied. They include the rapid pace of motorization, conditions of local demand that far exceed the capacity of facilities, the incompatibility of urban structure with increased motorization, a stronger transport–land use relationship than in developed cities, lack of adequate road maintenance and limited agreement among responsible officials as to appropriate forms of approach to the problem. The rapid rise of motorization presents the question: At what level will it begin to attenuate for given economic and regulatory conditions? Analysts have taken various approaches to this problem, but so far the results are not encouraging. Developing cities have shown significant leadership in vehicle use restrictions, new technologies, privatization, transit management, transit service innovation, transportation pricing and other actions. Only a few, however, have made important strides toward solving the problem. Developing cities have lessons to learn from developed cities as regards roles of new technologies, forms of institutional management and the long term consequences of different de facto policies toward the automobile. These experiences, however, especially in the last category, need to be interpreted very carefully in order to provide useful guidance to cities with, for he most part, entirely different historical experiences in transportation. Continued progress in meeting the needs of the mobility problem in developing cities will focus on: (a) highway building, hopefully used as an opportunity to rationalize access, (b) public transport management improvements, (c) pricing improvements, (d) traffic management, and (e) possibly an emphasis on rail rapid transit based on new revenue techniques.     

Appropriate mass transit for developing cities

This paper is concerned with the majority of developing nations who lack large resources for public sector projects. It questions the basis of much mass transit planning and attempts to put forward a more efficient way of reaching decisions. It calls extensively on experience of Metro Manila, capital of the Philippines, where an innovative system of metropolitan planning and administration is throwing a new light on ‘appropriate’ investment in such developing cities.

Mass transit systems as currently conceived in such developing cities—fully segregated rail‐based systems—are unlikely to be affordable (at least for many years) and in consequence scarce resources should not be devoted to developing and evaluating them. Rather, the principal objective should be to provide low‐cost, affordable mass transit—affordable to governments and to passengers. This almost certainly points to road‐based systems, or predominantly at‐grade light rail transit (LRT) systems, which are usually regarded as ‘obviously unworkable’ in developing city environments.

This judgement is questioned and it is suggested the potential of LRT to provide appropriate low‐cost mass transit is not being realized. An approach to determining its potential applicability is proposed. If feasible it should be evaluated against road‐based systems before decisions to implement new mass transit systems are taken.

While circumstances vary between countries the central message of this paper—that public sector resources have a very high opportunity cost which make all but the lowest‐cost mass transit systems very difficult to justify—will hold in all but the higher‐income developing economies.     

The taxi's role in urban America: Today and tomorrow

Changes in the economic and demographic characteristics of US cities over the past two decades have modified but have not diminished the need for extensive public transportation service in these areas. The vast bulk of trips to work, to shop, and for most other purposes within large American cities are still made by residents of those cities, a significant portion of whom do not own or have access to an automobile. Expensive and far-ranging programs to enhance surburban commutation to the central city by means of rail rapid transit do little to meet the needs of those who still must rely upon local, extensive service within the city.One form of public transport — the taxicab — offers the quality and flexibility of service which even those of limited means find well worth the price. As a consequence, fleet taxicabs serve almost 40 percent more passengers than all US rapid transit systems and about 60 percent as many passengers as all bus transit systems. Removal of archaic and restrictive regulations governing the number and use of taxicabs in major US cities would promote more effective and widespread use of this, the only form of public transit that still operates — at a profit — without public subsidy.     

Examining determinants of rail ridership: a case study of the Orlando SunRail system

The current study contributes to the literature on transit ridership by considering daily boarding and alighting data from a recently launched commuter rail system in Orlando, Florida – SunRail. The analysis is conducted based on daily boarding and alighting data for 10 months for the year 2015. With the availability of repeated observations for every station, the potential impact of common unobserved factors affecting ridership variables are considered. The current study develops an estimation framework, for boarding and alighting separately, that accounts for these unobserved effects at multiple levels – station, station-week and station-day. In addition, the study examines the impact of various observed exogenous factors such as station level, transportation infrastructure, transit infrastructure, land use, built environment, sociodemographic and weather variables on ridership. The model system developed will allow us to predict ridership for existing stations in the future as well as potential ridership for future expansion sites.     

Analysis of Metro ridership at station level and station-to-station level in Nanjing: an approach based on direct demand models

A growing base of research adopts direct demand models to reveal associations between transit ridership and influence factors in recent years. This study is designed to investigate the factors affecting rail transit ridership at both station level and station-to-station level by adopting multiple regression model and multiplicative model respectively, specifically using an implemented Metro system in Nanjing, China, where Metro implementation is on the rise. Independent variables include factors measuring land-use mix, intermodal connection, station context, and travel impedance. Multiple regression model proves 11 variables are significantly associated with Metro ridership at station level: population, employment, business/office floor area, CBD dummy variable, number of major educational sites, entertainment venues and shopping centers, road length, feeder bus lines, bicycle park-and-ride (P&R) spaces, and transfer dummy variable. Results from multiplicative model indicate that factors influencing Metro station ridership may also influence Metro station-to-station ridership, varied by both trip ends (origin/destination) and time of day. In comparison with previous case studies, CBD dummy variable and bicycle P&R are statistically significant to explain Metro ridership in Nanjing. In addition, Metro travel impedance variables have significant influence on station-to-station ridership, representing the basic time-decay relationship in travel distribution. Potential implications of the model results include estimating Metro ridership at station level and station-to-station level by considering the significant variables, recognizing the necessity to establish a cooperative multi-modal transit system, and identifying opportunities for transit-oriented development.