基于最小一乘回归的物价对舰船维修工时费影响分析

根据最小一乘回归只考虑偏差绝对值而具有受异常点影响小的特点,将其应用于物价因素对舰船维修工时费用的影响分析中,验证了物价因素对工时费用影响较为显著的结论。通过与最小二乘回归求解该问题进行比较发现,最小一乘方法具有较好的回归效果和稳健性。     

舰船设计中的大型舱室防火分隔方法

本着"以防为主、消防结合"、重点在于防的精神,本文介绍了采用钢质防火卷帘、无机布基防火卷帘、可收放式柔性防火石棉帘、水幕和气幕等舰船大型舱室防火分隔的方法,供优化舰船防火设计时参考.     

北约“海军舰船法规”探析

为了使海军的日常军事活动保持在一个可接受的风险等级之下,世界各国海军一直力求实现舰船安全性和作战性能之间的最佳平衡。随着北约各国政府对海军舰船安全等级要求的逐步提高,各成员国海军普遍采取将海军舰船加入船级社的船级,即"军船入级"的做法来应对这种新的挑战。然而,船级社的规范植根于国际性的立法,为了解决好海军舰船入级后各类标准、规范之间的有效衔接,同时为其提供一个更加协调一致而透明的安全标准,国际军船安全协会(INSA)颁布了适用于海军舰船的"ANEP77海军舰船法规(Naval Ship Code,NSC)"。该法规最初被称作"海军舰船SOLAS协定",与国际海事组织(IMO)的SOLAS公约具有类似适用的功用。截止目前,包括美国、英国、德国、意大利和挪威等在内的二十多个国家的海军和船级社加入了INSA,"海军舰船法规"正被越来越多的国家所接受和认可,在提高海军舰船的安全性方面发挥着日益重要的作用。     

中船重工第七一二研究所

正中国船舶重工集团公司第七一二研究所是我国唯一从事舰船电力推进系统研制的专业军工研究所,50余年致力于舰船电力推进系统及配套设备的研究,拥有国内专业最全、数量最多的舰船电力推进研究、制造、试验队伍,曾荣获数项国家科技进步特等奖和一等奖。拥有基础科研能力达到国内领先水平的"国家舰船综合电力技术国防科技重点实验室",国内最先进的舰船永磁推进电机试验室.国际先进、国内唯一的舰船电力推进系统陆上综合联调试验室(可进行单轴20MW级舰船电力推进系统的陆上联调试验)。     

"以人为本"理念在大型舰船设计中的应用

运用"以人为本"理念进行大型舰船的设计是当前的一种趋势,本文分别就"以人为本"理念在大型舰船总体设计、消防、居住性、舰船环境、生活等方面的应用进行了介绍.     

发展绿色舰船,抢占未来舰船发展制高点

针对舰船装备发展面临的低碳、环保等热点问题,阐述了"绿色舰船"和"绿色舰队"的内涵,介绍了美、欧等世界先进海军国家绿色舰船的发展现状。从节能、减排、防污和能源安全等角度,分析了我国海军发展绿色舰船的必要性。提出了发展绿色舰船应采取的系统性举措,包括:加强战略规划论证、更新舰船设计理念、注重绿色能源探索、强化配套装备研发、提升绿色建造能力、重视绿色管理研究、关注国际绿色舰船装备与技术新动向、积极开展国内外交流和合作等。     

舰船运动对舰船磁场特性的影响分析

舰船因海浪的起伏而产生了横摇、纵摇、垂荡等运动状态,从而破坏了舰船静止时的磁场特性.在假设横摇、纵摇、垂荡为简谐运动的前提下,利用静止舰船磁场模型,仿真和分析了舰船运动对舰船磁场特性的影响.     

舰船总体效能量化评估方法研究

针对舰船总体特点及使命任务要求,利用层次分析法建立了舰船总体评估层次模型,应用多属性效用理论建立了目标属性值到效能值的转换函数(价值函数)和舰船总体方案的效能评估模型,并将层次分析法与多属性效用理论相结合,提出了舰船总体效能量化评估方法.利用该方法对"阿穆尔"、214、"鲉鱼"3型潜艇的总效能进行了评价对比.结果表明,该方法对舰船总体效能评估具有较好的效果.     

采用高频法软件包计算舰船目标的RCS

对于舰船一类电特大尺寸复杂目标雷达散射截面(RCS)的计算通常都是采用高频法.以"RCSTOOLKIT"软件包为例,研究了实际应用高频法计算舰船RCS的一些关键技术.其中包括目标几何建模和基于3D几何模型的舰船RCS计算原理和方法,最后举例计算分析了一些舰船目标的RCS.     

基于模糊数学法的舰船耐波性综合评价

运用概率统计及模糊数学方法,在舰船耐波性规范的基础上,研究了舰船耐波性能的综合评价方法.提出了用"综合隶属度"的量化指标,对耐波性能进行综合量化评定.从试验或理论计算结果出发,提出了对舰船耐波性能综合评定的方法、步骤.通过SWATH的算例,证明此方法是可行的.     

基于故障类型的舰船装备系统最优检测与预防性维修周期的确定

结合系统维修的费用参数和故障特点,按单位维修周期费用最小原则建立一种综合考虑不同故障类型的系统检测与预防性维修优化模型,针对一个故障时间服从二参数威布尔分布的舰船装备系统,计算各种形状参数和隐蔽发生概率下的最优检测和预防性维修周期。     

改进GM（1,1）模型在舰船维修费用预测中的应用

基于灰色系统理论,使用海军舰船维修费用历史数据建立初值修正的GM（1,1）模型,利用少量数据中的显信息和隐信息,避免复杂的相关关系,克服了原始数据的离散性,得到较高精度的拟合效果,并对海军舰船维修费用进行短期预测。将预测结果加入等维信息模型,对未来费用支出进行动态预测。结果表明：其精度优于传统模型。     

Exploring vessel-price dynamics: the case of the dry bulk market

We investigate second-hand vessel price heterogeneity. Based on a sample of 5,591 purchase and sale transactions in the dry bulk sector over the period 1998–2016, we deploy a nonparametric regression technique to assess the determinants of vessel price and vessel price variability. Next, we use quantile regression to estimate the effect of regressors (sources of heterogeneity) at different parts of the vessel price distribution. We find evidence that main sources of vessel price heterogeneity are the age of the ship (the older the vessel the higher its maintenance cost), the 3-month LIBOR (reflecting the cost of financing) and the annual charter rate (revenues from operation). Their influence is stronger at all higher quantiles (periods of expansion) and the median of the vessel price distribution.     

Determinants of the damage cost and injury severity of ferry vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the property damage cost and injury severity of ferry vessel accidents. Detailed data of individual ferry vessel accidents for the 11-year timeperiod 1991–2001 that were investigated by the U.S. Coast Guard are used to estimate ferry-vessel accident property damage cost and injury severity equations. Tobit regression is used to estimate the former equation and the ordered probit model is used to estimate the latter. Property damage costs include damage costs to the vessel itself, its cargo and contents, and other-property damage (e.g., damage to pier structures and waterfront facilities). Injury severity for a ferry vessel accident is measured as an ordinal variable — no injuries, non-fatal injuries and fatal injuries. Damage cost and injury severity of individual ferry vessel accidents are expressed as functions of the type of vessel accident, vessel characteristics, vessel operation phase, weather/visibility conditions, type of waterway, type of vessel propulsion, type of vessel hull construction and cause of vessel accident. The property damage estimation results suggest that allision, collision and fire ferry vessel accidents incur more vessel property damage cost per vessel gross ton than other types of accidents. The injury severity estimation results suggest that injury severity is greater when the ferry vessel accident is caused by human error as opposed to vessel and environmental factors.     

Determinants of the severity of passenger vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the number of injured, deceased and missing occupants and the damage cost of passenger vessel accidents that were investigated by the US Coast Guard for the years 1991-2001. Negative binomial and Poisson regression estimates suggest that: (1) passenger-freight combination vessel accidents incur greater injuries than other types of passenger vessels, (2) deaths are greater when precipitation weather and poor visibility exist and (3) missing occupants are greater for capsize accidents and larger the vessel. The damage cost per vessel gross ton is less for ocean cruise and steel-hulled vessels. The major conclusion of the study is that human (as opposed to environmental and vessel) causes of passenger vessel accidents result in increases in the number of injured, deceased and missing occupants.     

平潭海峡大桥船舶交通管理系统管理程度研究

平潭海峡是中小型船舶东北季风盛行季节北上的黄金水道。近年来随着国民经济的快速增长,沿海航运业得到迅猛发展,海峡船舶密度明显增大。平潭海峡大桥位于平潭海峡中部,桥区通航孔附近每小时最大交通量为17艘,出现船舶追越局面的可能性较大。海峡碍航物多,水流复杂,且小型船舶违规、违章航行现象较普遍,存在一定的安全隐患。定量分析桥区船舶交通危险,进行科学的船舶交通管理系统成本与效益分析,恰当划分与确定船舶交管系统等级,使系统的建设规模符合当地船舶交通的实际需要,力求取得较好的社会效益和经济效益。     

Bayes小样本统计理论在舰艇导航装备维修中的应用

舰艇导航装备属于高精度、高可靠性、高成本的精密设备。为了解决大型导航设备在小样本条件下的维修性评估问题,研究了Bayes小样本统计理论在导航装备维修中的应用。根据导航装备维修时间的小样本数据,进行了数据的K-S检验,建立了导航装备的维修时间分布模型,运用Bootstrap方法对确立的模型进行参数辨识,确定了导航装备的平均修复时间、中位修复时间、最大修复时间等参数,结果表明Bootstrap方法的有效性和准确性。     

Determinants of the property damage costs of bulk barge accidents

This study investigates determinants of the vessel, cargo, and other-property damage costs of bulk barge accidents in US inland waterways. Tobit estimation of a three-equation recursive model suggests that, in bulk barge accidents: (1) vessel damage cost is greater for collision, fire/explosion, and material/equipment failure accidents than for groundings; (2) cargo damage cost is greater at night and when the weather is foggy and increases with barge age; and (3) otherproperty damage cost is greater for multi-vessel accidents, but decreases with barge size. A dollar of vessel damage cost increases other-property damage cost by $1.38, while a dollar of cargo damage cost increases this cost by $6.90. An important result for formulating bulk barge accident cost-reduction policies is that a given determinant might have a negative effect on one type of damage cost but a positive effect on another.     

舰船燃气轮机燃气初温的热经济学优化分析

运用热经济学分析方法对燃气初温的确定进行研究,建立燃气轮机的热力学模型、涡轮叶片的寿命表达式和经济学模型;以装置每小时消耗费用为目标函数,对燃气轮机的燃气初温进行优化分析,得出优化结果。