Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: The VECM approach

This paper examines the effect of transportation (road and rail) infrastructure on economic growth in India over the period 1970–2010. Using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the paper finds bidirectional causality between road transportation and economic growth. It also finds bidirectional causality between road transportation and capital formation, bidirectional causality between gross domestic capital formation and economic growth, unidirectional causality from rail transportation to economic growth and unidirectional causality from rail transportation to gross capital formation. The paper suggests that expansion of transport infrastructure (both road and rail) along with gross capital formation will lead to substantial growth of the Indian economy. Therefore, within its stated scope, this study suggests that a suitable transport policy should be retained to boost transportation infrastructure and hence sustainable economic growth in India.     

Rail infrastructure,ITS and access charges

This paper presents an overview of the principles and technologies relating to railway infrastructure. Specifically this paper includes rail–wheel contact, inspection and maintenance of rail. Intelligent transport systems (ITS) and their applications for the purposes of the railway transport in Europe are discussed. The potential, levels of development, technological and operational characteristics of the European Railway Traffic Management System (ERTMS) are presented. Finally, a discussion on methodologies, principles and current practices for access charging in Europe is provided.     

Rail and multi-modal transport

This paper elaborates on the definitions of inter and multi-modal transport, as well as their differences in terms of performance. A survey of the barriers, both internal and external, to an efficient intermodal transport is included followed by an analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of combining rail transport with the other transport modes. Transhipment technologies for efficient freight service and some examples of freight rail corridors between sea and inland terminals are presented. The integration between air and rail transport is discussed and the potential synergies between air and high-speed rail services are emphasised. The paper concludes with a discussion on energy use for sustainable rail performance.     

基于贝叶斯网络的港口生产安全评价方法

将基于贝叶斯网络的概率安全评价方法引入港口生产作业安全评价中,提出了将故障树分析法转换为贝叶斯网络的步骤,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的安全评价模型。通过在贝叶斯网络模型上进行推理求解,进行前向的风险预测和后向的诊断分析。最后通过对码头前沿机损的安全评价实例说明该评价方法的合理性和有效性。     

船用空压机典型故障的事故树分析

运用FTA（事故树定性分析）的定性方法，分析船用空压机典型故障问题的事故树模型，探讨船用空压机典型故障的预防途径，为船用空压机管理过程中的安全管理、安全评价以及事故分析提供参考。     

The development of road and rail transport safety valuation in the United Kingdom

An extensive body of theoretical and empirical work has been undertaken in the UK since the middle of the last century on the estimation of values of safety for use in the appraisal of proposed transport projects, particularly road and rail. This research has focused largely on ‘willingness-to-pay’ based values in order to measure the strength of the travelling public's preference for marginal improvements in transport safety, relative to consumption of other goods and services. In terms of practical policy making, the research has resulted in a set of values for the prevention of statistical fatalities and non-fatal injuries that are applied not only in transport safety decision making, but also in other public sector contexts. This paper summarises the main findings of this research.     

Beta comparisons across industries—a Water transportation industry perspective

This paper undertakes a comparative analysis of the stock market perception of risk in US listed water transportation companies and seven other main sectors, air transportation; rail transportation; trucks; electricity; gas; petroleum refining; and real estate over the period July 1984-June 1995. This is done by employing the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to model the stock returns of each industry and hence compare their betas (systematic risk). Multiequation Regression Models are used for estimation. The findings suggest that the water transportation industry exhibits significantly lower market risk than the average stock and the rail transportation industry, significantly higher systematic risk than the real estate industry, while its systematic risk is insignificantly different from the rest of the industries. These results are useful to investors basing their decisions on relative market exposures to risk in different industries.     

Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: The case of passenger rail privatisation

Britain's national rail system was ‘privatised’ as a result of the 1993 Railways Act, with most of the organisational and ownership changes implemented by 1997. This paper examines the long term impacts of these changes. A key issue when examining long term changes is that of the counterfactual – what would have happened if the changes had not occurred? A simple econometric model of the demand for passenger rail services was developed and used in conjunction with extrapolative methods for key variables such as fares and train km to determine demand-side counterfactuals. Extrapolative methods were also used to determine counterfactual infrastructure and train operation costs. Although our results are sensitive to the assumptions we have made concerning the counterfactual they suggest a number of impacts. Since privatisation, rail demand has grown strongly but our analysis indicates that transitional disruptions suppressed demand by around 9% over a prolonged period (1992/3 to 2005/6), whilst the Hatfield accident reduced demand by about 5%, albeit over a shorter period (2000/1 to 2006/7). A welfare analysis suggests that although consumers seem to have gained as a result of privatisation, for most years this has been offset by increases in costs. An exception is provided by the two years immediately before the Hatfield accident. Overall the loss in welfare since the reforms were introduced far exceeds the net receipts from the sale of rail businesses. Thus although the reforms have had advantages in terms of lower fares and better service levels than otherwise would have been the case, this appears to have been offset by increased infrastructure and train operations costs. The source of these high costs remains an area of speculation but appear to be related to aspects of both market and regulatory failure.     

Methodology for calculating passenger capacity in bus rapid transit systems: Application to the TransMilenio system in Bogotá, Colombia

Transit textbooks and engineering manuals indicate that the capacity of Bus Rapid Transit –BRT – systems does not exceed 20,000 passengers per hour per direction. The implementation of the TransMilenio BRT System, in Bogotá, Colombia, showed that the systematic combination of multiple platforms at stations, overtaking lanes, level boarding, prepayment, large buses with multiple doors, express and local services, and traffic engineering measures at intersections, allow for very large passenger throughput. Measurements indicate actual throughput of 43,000 passengers per hour per direction with average bus occupancy of 150 passengers per articulated bus, and a commercial speed of 22–24 km/h. According to special formulas developed for the analysis of high capacity BRT corridors, the critical section of TransMilenio has a practical capacity of 48,000 passengers per hour per direction with its existing infrastructure and 150 passengers per bus – 35,000 passengers per hour per direction with 110 passengers per bus. Changes in existing infrastructure, such as additional platforms, higher capacity vehicles, non-grade facilities at critical intersections, among other improvements, may increase the capacity, speed, reliability and quality of service of the system.     

杭州湾跨海大桥船舶碰撞风险分析

文中主要对引航锚地海域船桥碰撞风险进行分析,合理识别风险因素,并运用故障树分析法对风险因素进行评估,最后提出风险控制的措施。     

BRT and BHLS around the world: Explosive growth,large positive impacts and many issues outstanding

A survey of Bus Rapid Transit BRT and Bus of High Level of Service BHLS around the world indicates that there are about 120 cities with bus corridors, with 99 of the cities entering into the list in the last 12 years. The existing bus corridors comprise about 280 corridors, 4300 km, 6700 stations and use 30,000 buses, serving about 28 million passengers per day. In 2010–2011, 19 cities completed new systems − 16 in the developing world – and seven cities expanded their current systems. By late 2011, about 49 new cities were building systems, 16 cities were expanding their corridors, and 31 cities were in initial planning. This impressive growth may be attributed in part to the successes of Curitiba, Bogotá, México City, Istanbul, Ahmedabad and Guangzhou. These cities show low cost, rapid implementation and high performance BRTs, with significant positive externalities. Interesting trends are emerging, such as the implementation of citywide integrated bus systems, improved processes for private participation in operations, increased funding from national governments, and growth of bus manufacturers and technology providers. Despite the growth, there are some outstanding issues: BRT and BHLS do not have a single meaning and image and are often regarded as a “second best” as compared to rail alternatives. In addition several systems in the developing world suffer problems resulting from poor planning, implementation and operation, due to financial, institutional and regulatory constraints. The BRT and BHLS Industry are in their “infancy” and there is need for consolidation and concerted effort.     

基于故障树分析技术的客滚运输安全性评价

根据对渤海湾客滚运输事故原因的统计分析,建立了基于故障树分析技术的客滚运输航行风险分析模型。利用Semanderes算法求出故障树的最小割集,对客滚运输安全进行定性分析。基于容斥定理设计了顶事件概率的求解算法,计算出了各底事件的概率重要度和关键重要度,进而对客滚运输安全进行定量分析。通过综合分析得出影响客滚运输安全的重要因素。     

舰船总体可靠性通用软件包研究

本文着重探讨舰船的总体可靠性的计算问题，作者将故障树分析法和多级数值仿真相结合，编制了计算舰船总体可靠性各项参数（例如任务可靠度，战备完好率等）的软件包。在系统分析方面，作者巧妙应用多级数值仿真法，提供了计算可维修系统可靠性的新途径。并在本文最后给出了一个关于潜艇可靠性参数的计算实例。     

Decommissioning forecast in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, 2013–2033

One hundred and ten fixed, tensioned, and moored structures have been installed in the Gulf of Mexico in water depth greater than 400 ft, and through 2012, 15 structures have been decommissioned. Decommissioning is the final stage of an assets life cycle, where all wells are plugged and abandoned, the structure and associated production facilities are removed, and the seafloor cleared of all debris created by the operations. The purpose of this paper is to describe a decommissioning forecast for deepwater structures in the Gulf of Mexico. Three approaches (“simple models”) based on lease status, gross revenue, and production forecasting are applied to infer a short, medium, and long-term decommissioning forecast. Model assumptions are outlined along with a discussion of the limitations and uncertainty of analysis. About two dozen deepwater fixed platforms are expected to be removed over the next decade, but only 5 floaters are expected to be decommissioned through 2032.     

Investigating links between transport disadvantage, social exclusion and well-being in Melbourne - Updated results

This paper updates results of an international study aimed at quantifying the links between transport disadvantage (TD), social exclusion (SE) and well-being (WB) in Melbourne, Australia. The study extends knowledge associated with SE and transport by quantify social and behavioural implications of lack of public and private transport and the nature of the social WB benefits associated with improving services.Study aims and methodology are outlined. Recent findings covered relate to car ownership on the urban fringe, patterns of transport disadvantage, the analysis of time poverty related to transport disadvantage, measuring the economic value of additional mobility and use of a Structural Equation Model (SEM) to relate WB and SE to TD and a series of explanatory factors.Overall results suggest that those without a car on the urban fringe adjust well with their circumstances by living close to activity centres. They demonstrate sustainable choices, trading off budgets and home location to balance mobility and accessibility. Poorer households with high car ownership value mobility and cheaper more remote fringe dwellings but demonstrate numerous strategies to reduce high car costs which are acknowledged as a significant burden. Analysis identifies 4 key types of transport disadvantage including a ‘vulnerable/impaired’ group which should be of much greater concern for targeted policy than others due to poor scoring on SE and WB scales. The economic value of new mobility is also explored with results suggesting $AUD 20 per average new trip which is four times larger than conventional values for generated travel.Analysis has also suggested that transport disadvantage can relate to socially advantaged as well as socially disadvantaged groups through time poverty. This was found to be an important mitigating factor when relating TD to WB. A statistically reliable structural equation model is developed suggesting the SE-WB link is strong (−.87) with a modest link between TD-SE (.27).Areas for future research in the project are also summarised.     

钢纤维混凝土在轨道梁维修中的施工技术分析及应用

为减少取料机械轨道梁维修的成本和对港口生产作业的影响,将生产中的轨道梁进行分期施工并采用不同工艺的维修。分析了秦皇岛港煤五期轨道梁现状,提出了维修方案。详细介绍了施工材料、施工工艺、安全和工期控制。取得了良好的社会效益和经济效益。     

Population ageing,gender and the transportation system

Across the globe population structures are ageing and how older men and women interact with the transport system is increasingly important in maintaining a good quality of life and inclusion in society. The paper reviews three issues: the nature of older people’s interaction with the transport system by gender; older people’s attitude to travel; and the involvement of older people as road traffic casualties. Patterns of travel in the UK show that older people are heavily dependent on car use, but in the form of more frequent but shorter journeys than younger people. This is especially so for women over 70 years old who, as passengers, are very reliant on males to drive them. Attitudes suggest that there are few obstacles to public transport use, and most agree that bus travel is good, but convenience means many prefer cars. Involvement of older men and women in serious road traffic accidents show that they have lower killed and seriously injured (KSI) rates than 17–24 year old drivers. However, those aged over 70 years exhibit a trend of increasing KSI rates. Analysis of casualty rates of drivers by type of junction, manoeuvre and environmental conditions found that some gender-age groups are overrepresented in certain accident types, including higher serious accidents rates for men, and over representation of older women when driving in poor conditions and turning right and negotiating roundabouts, crossroads and T, Y and staggered junctions. Improvement in engineering design and driver training are suggested together with the need for a greater understanding of the transportation system needs of old and very old people.     

GMDSS使用及实践培训中的安全问题

此文主要探讨与GMDSS使用及实践培训有关的人身安全、设备安全和设备的操作安全等问题,提出了确保安全的具体措施及发生误报警事故后的处理方法。