Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: The case of passenger rail privatisation

Britain's national rail system was ‘privatised’ as a result of the 1993 Railways Act, with most of the organisational and ownership changes implemented by 1997. This paper examines the long term impacts of these changes. A key issue when examining long term changes is that of the counterfactual – what would have happened if the changes had not occurred? A simple econometric model of the demand for passenger rail services was developed and used in conjunction with extrapolative methods for key variables such as fares and train km to determine demand-side counterfactuals. Extrapolative methods were also used to determine counterfactual infrastructure and train operation costs. Although our results are sensitive to the assumptions we have made concerning the counterfactual they suggest a number of impacts. Since privatisation, rail demand has grown strongly but our analysis indicates that transitional disruptions suppressed demand by around 9% over a prolonged period (1992/3 to 2005/6), whilst the Hatfield accident reduced demand by about 5%, albeit over a shorter period (2000/1 to 2006/7). A welfare analysis suggests that although consumers seem to have gained as a result of privatisation, for most years this has been offset by increases in costs. An exception is provided by the two years immediately before the Hatfield accident. Overall the loss in welfare since the reforms were introduced far exceeds the net receipts from the sale of rail businesses. Thus although the reforms have had advantages in terms of lower fares and better service levels than otherwise would have been the case, this appears to have been offset by increased infrastructure and train operations costs. The source of these high costs remains an area of speculation but appear to be related to aspects of both market and regulatory failure.     

Exploring Public Knowledge,Attitudes, and Perceptions of the Marianas Trench Marine National Monument

With the increase in development of large marine protected areas (LMPAs) worldwide, there have been calls from social scientists to gather better empirical information about the human dimensions of LMPAs. Of the social research done on LMPAs to date, most has focused on the perceptions of stakeholders closely connected to their implementation, and little research has explored the general public's response. This paper presents the results of a phone survey conducted in the US territories of Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands to assess residents' knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of the Marianas Trench Marine National Monument—a LMPA designated offshore in 2009. The survey was administered in 2012 to 500 randomly-selected residents from each territory. Findings suggest: (1) public awareness of the Monument prior to the survey was low; (2) residents generally supported designation of the Monument; (3) most residents did not believe that the Monument would affect them or their community; and (4) knowledge and perceptions of the Monument varied between fishing and non-fishing households. This research illustrates that awareness and views differ between stakeholders and those of the general public, which should be used to inform social research on LMPAs and outreach for LMPA managers.     

Carbon flux in ice–ocean–plankton systems of the Bellingshausen Sea during a period of ice retreat

Most analyses of marine microbial systems in the seasonally ice covered areas of the Southern Ocean have been based on data from the major embayment areas of the Ross and Weddell Seas. In this study data were collected at stations covering a range of regimes from full ice cover through to open water in the Bellingshausen Sea. A major feature of the production system was a rapid retreat of the ice-edge, which uncoupled the marginal ice zone from a phytoplankton bloom which remained associated with a frontal system. This bloom was maintained, and probably initiated, in an unusual environment generated by the interaction between the marginal ice zone and the front. Size-based analyses of the microbial system were derived for ice-covered, recently ice-covered and open water sites. Estimates of standing stocks and key rate processes were combined to produce a single food web network for each station. The under-ice system was one of low production and low recycling but apparently high retention. As the ice retreated the microbial systems to the north began to develop, but these were constrained by grazing pressure. The bloom in the area appeared to be sustained even though estimated losses were far higher than production, although the high sedimentation losses expected were not observed. The carbon flow networks are discussed in relation to the environmental changes and the interaction of the marginal ice zone and the frontal system appears crucial to the phytoplankton. Microzooplankton grazing is implicated as a major controlling factor. The local microbial dynamics are strongly influenced by material which was produced at an earlier time and somewhere else in the Southern Ocean.