Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation along the twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) is important to ensure its development and sustainability. Maritime transportation poses risks of accidents that can cause the death or injury of crew members and damage to ships and the environment. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) based risk analysis approach that is newly applied in the main route of the MSR to analyse its relevant maritime accidents. The risk data are manually collected from the reports of the accident that occurred along the MSR. Next, the risk factors are identified and the results from the modelling method can provide useful insights for accident prevention. Historical data collected from accident reports are used to estimate the prior probabilities of the identified risk factors influencing the occurrence of maritime accidents. The results show that the main influencing factors are the type and location of an accident and the type, speed, and age of the involved ship(s). In addition, scenario analysis is conducted to analyse the risks of different ships in various navigational environments. The findings can be used to analyse the probability of each possible maritime accident along MSR and to provide useful insights for shipowners’ accident prevention.     

Economic impact of non-motorized transportation in Indian cities

Lack of a clear understanding regarding the economic impacts of non-motorized modes is a major reason why they are excluded from the transportation development agenda of cities in India. Keeping this aspect in mind the present study has been divided in to two parts. The first part tries to understand the non-motorized traffic evolution in India. It focuses on the declination of non-motorized modes, necessity to revamp it, the favorable conditions to promote them in India and the relative problems associated with it. It is found here that there is a necessity for defining the role of non-motorized modes in India for the viable implementation of infrastructure and policies related with it.     

Moving towards more eco-efficient tourist transportation to a resort destination: The case of Whistler, British Columbia

Transportation is not only a key component of the tourism value chain, but it is also a critical management consideration in shaping tourism's environmental footprint. Transportation consumes the greatest portion of the energy used in the tourism system. Most of this consumption is associated with travel to and from the destination. Despite this situation, scant research has addressed ways in which destinations can play a role in reducing this energy use challenge. Strategies such as shifting visitors to more energy-efficient modes have the potential to improve the eco-efficiency of tourist transportation. Using a case study of transportation management options and visitor responses in Whistler, British Columbia, Canada, this paper examines visitor reactions to a range of transportation strategies designed to shift skiers from private to public modes of transport. Respondents completed an online survey employing both traditional and stated choice questioning methods to examine tourists' transportation choice behaviour. Long-haul tourists were the most likely to shift transport modes based on the management options offered to them. Destination management strategies for moving this target group to public modes of transportation are described.     

Crucial factors influencing international logistics operations for African landlocked countries – A case study of Burkina Faso

ABSTRACT

This study aims to evaluate the crucial factors influencing international logistics operations for African landlocked countries. To this end, a case study and a questionnaire survey were conducted. A total of 147 usable responses from container shipping firms were obtained as a result of the questionnaire survey. The results of factor analysis revealed that transportation capability, external risks, information integration, logistics infrastructure, local agents’ logistics capability, and national law and policy were crucial factors influencing the logistics operations of African landlocked countries. Specifically, local agents’ logistics capability was perceived by respondents to be the most important factor. Moreover, the results of the study also indicated that the highest factor mean values of small shipping companies were related to transportation capability, external risks and the local agents’ logistics capability, whereas container shipping companies that arranged trucks for inland transportation paid more attention to the external risks, logistics infrastructure, the local agents’ logistics capability, and national law and policy.     

柴油—LNG动力船舶燃料加注燃爆风险分析预测

将液化天然气(LNG)用作船用燃料,可降低运输成本,且节能环保。但在生产及储运过程中存在火灾爆炸的风险。本文着重对LNG双燃料动力船舶加注过程的风险进行了分析。运用事故树分析方法,对加注过程中的风险进行识别并进行定性分析;根据泄漏概率和相关统计公式求得了燃料加注过程中管系发生泄漏的概率;对加注过程发生泄漏事故的后果进行了预测,包括利用高斯模型对加注过程管系泄漏事故时可燃气体浓度在5%-15%的半径范围进行预测,运用池火模型计算加注过程LNG 泄漏形成池火的热辐射危险距离;采用TNT当量法和超压准则对加注过程气罐泄漏发生蒸气云爆炸的危害范围进行预测。     

重庆至上海洋山集装箱运输方式研究

通过对长江干线集装箱运输市场、航线、货源、通航条件的调研及分析,对重庆港至上海国际航运中心大、小洋山港集装箱运输的中转、江海直达方式进行论证,认为在现阶段宜采用中转运输组织方式,而直达运输方式经济性相对较差。     

宁夏交通数据中心技术架构研究

建设交通运输数据中心是宁夏云计算产业高地发展的重要组成部分,科学合理地设计交通数据中心总体技术架构有助于交通运输行业数据资源的汇集、整合、挖掘和共享.从交通数据中心逻辑框架出发,分析不同逻辑层面的应用需求.在此基础上,结合技术架构框架模型,搭建宁夏数据中心总体技术架构,具体分析基础设施架构、系统集成架构和技术标准架构的详细组成.     

欧洲集装箱内河运输经验借鉴

随着全球和区域经济网络的形成和发展,内河集装箱运输得到了迅猛发展,人们日趋认识到内河集装箱运输在集装箱多式联运体系中的重要价值和未来持续增长的潜力。为此,以欧洲集装箱内河运输经验为借鉴,对集装箱内河运输模式进行了分析,内容包括:内河集装箱发展演变特点、给予政府层面的集装箱内河运输推进模式等,在此基础上,对我国的内河集装箱运输,提出了若干建议。     

Evaluation of factors for carrier selection in the China Pearl River delta

The efficient integration of logistics modes is critical for international cargo shipping. The local transportation connecting to the export port then plays a vital role in such integration. This paper investigates the problems of carrier selection in the China Pearl River delta area, with respect to international shipping. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model is constructed based on a comprehensive industrial interviews and statistical analysis. Rather than simply ranking the given alternatives, we use AHP is used to analyse the weakness and strength of impacting factors in carrier selection. The model is implemented under different types of shipper. Seven criteria are statistically summarized from the questionnaire for evaluating eight different modes. The results are useful to those liner companies serving the PRD region in relationship to port selection and fleet deployment.     

Evaluation of factors for carrier selection in the China Pearl River delta

The efficient integration of logistics modes is critical for international cargo shipping. The local transportation connecting to the export port then plays a vital role in such integration. This paper investigates the problems of carrier selection in the China Pearl River delta area, with respect to international shipping. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model is constructed based on a comprehensive industrial interviews and statistical analysis. Rather than simply ranking the given alternatives, we use AHP is used to analyse the weakness and strength of impacting factors in carrier selection. The model is implemented under different types of shipper. Seven criteria are statistically summarized from the questionnaire for evaluating eight different modes. The results are useful to those liner companies serving the PRD region in relationship to port selection and fleet deployment.     

我国主要内贸集装箱航线运量预测

在对我国内贸三大货源地中各主要运输节点集装箱生成量进行预测的基础上，根据各种运输方式进行合理分流，得出了未来10年我国主要内贸集装箱航线的运量，并依据预测结果对我国内贸集装箱运输的发展提出了建议。     

新型交通工具在交通运输中的应用进展和展望

为了应对快速城镇化发展中的城市交通问题,城市新型交通工具发展迅速。文中综述了国内外11种新型交通工具的关键技术和特性,包括城市轨道交通、地面交通及航空交通,考察新型交通工具在公路、铁路、航空等不同模式下的具体应用,并从资源环境约束、技术经济性能、系统服务性能、产业发展潜力等方面讨论新型交通工具的发展态势。提出多模式一体化综合交通系统发展的关键特征在于共享、畅达、绿色、公平。     

运输模式选择的计量分析与实证研究

选择何种内陆运输模式对区域经济发展和集约型社会的构建具有重要意义。文章出于循环经济与绿色交通的战略构想，从环境、经济、运输时间、便捷性、土地节约化利用、安全等方面对内河航运和公路运输进行综合比较分析，构建内陆运输模式选择的指标体系。引入模糊综合评价法对2种内陆运输模式进行综合评价，为内陆地区综合运输体系的构建提供参考。以江苏省南北向交通为例进行了实证分析，并对内河航运的发展提出相关建议。     

Hazardous material incidents: Some key results of a risk analysis

Human safety and health, environmental and property protection and security concerning hazardous materials supply chain are important issues for many countries, industries and organisations around the world. This paper presents some key results of a comprehensive risk study on hazardous materials supply chain incidents. Based on a risk analysis framework adapted for maritime transport of packaged dangerous goods, this study combines qualitative and quantitative analysis of large and diverse datasets collected from some of the U.S.’s best and largest data sources. The study may be one of the largest of its kind, and some of the results might not be found elsewhere. Incidents have occurred in every system of the hazardous materials supply chain, including platforms, all modes of transport, chemical plants, terminals and storages. The results show that more than half (52.1 %) of incidents are attributed to the transport system. The study largely considers incidents happening during maritime transport, which account for 18% of transport incidents. In absolute terms, the FN curves of maritime transport human risks are generally found to be well below the corresponding FN curves of aggregated supply chain human risks.     

Failure modes in the maritime transportation system: a functional approach to throughput vulnerability

Maritime Transportation Systems (MTSs) are essential for world trade; it is crucial to understand how these systems may fail, to be able to maintain their capacity. In this paper, the MTS is seen as a throughput mechanism; a technical system which serves its purpose by moving goods for its dependents. Understanding which key functions and capabilities are prerequisite for the ability to move goods, the loss of which are the failure modes, allows for the creation of a ‘business continuity plan’ for the MTS. Through two surveys and interviews with maritime transportation industry stakeholders, it was observed that while stakeholders in the industry have a solid focus on frequent operational risks, there is a lack of awareness of vulnerabilities, as well as methods for addressing and planning for low-frequency high-impact disruption scenarios. The presented approach provides a structured set of matrices of the key functions of the MTS, allowing stakeholders to increase the system's resilience through preparing to restore this limited number of critical functions.     

Transportation benefits from containerized cargo movements on the Trinity River, Texas

The future of waterborne commerce on the Trinity River, Texas, depends on the extent to which the waterborne transport system constitutes a definite cost saving over alternate transportation modes. This paper outlines the results of a study conducted in the area, the purpose of which was to establish potential transportation savings from containerized commodity movements on the Trinity River.     

Cost analysis of bulk cargo containerization

ABSTRACT

Bulk cargo containerization (BCC) involves changes in the transportation mode of container shipping for cargo that uses bulk carriers without packing. This topic has recently attracted considerable attention as an alternative transportation method for container cargo. BCC is advantageous because it can address imbalances in the amount of cargo conveyed between the main and back hauls, thereby improving efficiency. A previous survey among companies involved in cargo shipping revealed that in addition to ocean freight, vanning and devanning, and customs clearance costs, consignees’ decisions were the key factor in selecting transport modes. The present study aims to clarify the cost competitiveness of container shipping and identify cost reductions that may increase the use of BCC. To quantitatively check the results of the survey employed in this study, we constructed a model based on consignees’ and container shipping companies’ costs to determine the choice of transport mode for back-haul trade, then examined the incentives for consignees and shipping companies. We found that BCC can be realized by cost reduction on the part of the consignee and profit improvement on the part of the container shipping company for some routes and goods. Although reducing the freight rate would effectively promote BCC, reducing other costs would not have the same effect.     

Risk assessment framework for exposure of cargo and ports to natural hazards and climate extremes

There is an increase in risks and catastrophic losses in maritime transport including ports and cargo. Significant losses have been associated with large scale natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunami, cyclones, and other extreme weather events. This paper identifies the main gaps in understanding maritime risks in transportation research. The gaps are attributed to insufficient empirical work available from the maritime transport and logistics research community to guide multi-risk and natural hazards impact assessment on seaport and cargo. In addition, disaster studies communities have barely made adequate efforts to understand and assess port and cargo risks arising from multi-hazards and disaster events. This paper examines existing conceptual frameworks concerning exposure and risk assessments of natural catastrophe’s impacts. Furthermore, the paper identifies trends and gaps in risk assessment frameworks in the field of disaster studies that can be beneficial for maritime risk research. The authors propose a new risk assessment framework that can guide future research and multi-hazard risk assessment processes at different scales of maritime risks.     

三体高速客货运输船设计方案概要

多体船与同吨位单体船相比,前者可获得单位面积排水量时更大的甲板面积、良好的横稳性、优良的抗沉性和适航性。高速水运相对于其他运输方式而言,具有装载量大、营运成本低、初始投资少等显著优势。文中以某型具有特定滚装功能(可携带冷藏集装箱、汽车等)的三体客货运输船为例,详细介绍其主要技术参数、设计方案、材料和动力装置的选取情况,总结了三体船的受力特点,对同类型船设计中危险工况确定的强度分析和结构优化具有一定的指导意义。