The impact of real-time information on bus ridership in New York City

In the past few years, numerous mobile applications have made it possible for public transit passengers to find routes and/or learn about the expected arrival time of their transit vehicles. Though these services are widely used, their impact on overall transit ridership remains unclear. The objective of this research is to assess the effect of real-time information provided via web-enabled and mobile devices on public transit ridership. An empirical evaluation is conducted for New York City, which is the setting of a natural experiment in which a real-time bus tracking system was gradually launched on a borough-by-borough basis beginning in 2011. Panel regression techniques are used to evaluate bus ridership over a three year period, while controlling for changes in transit service, fares, local socioeconomic conditions, weather, and other factors. A fixed effects model of average weekday unlinked bus trips per month reveals an increase of approximately 118 trips per route per weekday (median increase of 1.7% of weekday route-level ridership) attributable to providing real-time information. Further refinement of the fixed effects model suggests that this ridership increase may only be occurring on larger routes; specifically, the largest quartile of routes defined by revenue miles of service realized approximately 340 additional trips per route per weekday (median increase of 2.3% per route). Although the increase in weekday route-level ridership may appear modest, on aggregate these increases exert a substantial positive effect on farebox revenue. The implications of this research are critical to decision-makers at the country’s transit operators who face pressure to increase ridership under limited budgets, particularly as they seek to prioritize investments in infrastructure, service offerings, and new technologies.     

A simultaneous route-level transit patronage model: demand,supply, and inter-route relationship

In this paper we present a route-level patronage model that incorporates transit demand, supply and inter-route effects in a simultaneous system. The model is estimated at the route-segment level by time of day and direction. The results show strong simultaneity among transit demand, supply and competing routes. Transit ridership is affected by the level of service, which in turn is determined by current demand and ridership in the previous year. The model demonstrates that a service improvement has a twofold impact on ridership; it increases ridership on the route with service changes, but it also reduces the ridership on competing routes so that the net ridership change is small. The model is thus useful for both system-level analysis and route-level service planning.     

A simulation‐based reliability assessment approach for congested transit network

This paper is an attempt to develop a generic simulation‐based approach to assess transit service reliability, taking into account interaction between network performance and passengers' route choice behaviour. Three types of reliability, say, system wide travel time reliability, schedule reliability and direct boarding waiting‐time reliability are defined from perspectives of the community or transit administration, the operator and passengers. A Monte Carlo simulation approach with a stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment model embedded is proposed to quantify these three reliability measures of transit service. A simple transit network with a bus rapid transit (BRT) corridor is analysed as a case study where the impacts of BRT components on transit service reliability are evaluated preliminarily.     

Integrating geographic information systems into transit ridership forecast models

Researchers have produced sophisticated modal split and transit demand models, including forecasts that are sensitive to the level of service. However, little effort has been made to integrate these models into corridor studies and route alignment analyses since (a) re-routing is itself an extremely complex modeling task, and (b) the results of the demand models are presented in tabular form with no facility to visualize spatial patterns and relationships that, if recognized, would aid in the routing tasks. GIS tools can be used, together with the demand models, to identify both clusters of city blocks that house families with certain socioeconomic characteristics and potential trip destinations conducive to transit use. In other words, GIS tools can be used to better measure some of the factors that are needed by transit demand models. The results of these models can be displayed graphically, enabling analysts to target places needing improved service, evaluate route re-alignment alternatives, and operate more efficient and effective bus lines. This paper examines how a particular class of model used by transit agencies for estimating ridership can be integrated with GIS tools in order to facilitate such analyses. It also explores the effects of visualization of routes, demographics, and employment data on the process of designing route alignments with better targeting of high transit ridership areas. This paper is part of a research project sponsored by the Region One University Transportation Center, at MIT.     

Joint optimization of a rail transit line and its feeder bus system

A model is developed for jointly optimizing the characteristics of a rail transit route and its associated feeder bus routes in an urban corridor. The corridor demand characteristics are specified with irregular discrete distributions which can realistically represent geographic variations. The total cost (supplier plus user cost) of the integrated bus and rail network is minimized with an efficient iterative method that successively substitutes variable values obtained through classical analytic optimization. The optimized variables include rail line length, rail station spacings, bus headways, bus stop spacings, and bus route spacing. Computer programs are designed for optimization and sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity of the transit service characteristics to various travel time and cost parameters is discussed. Numerical examples are presented for integrated transit systems in which the rail and bus schedules may be coordinated.     

Planning of integrated transit network for bus and LRT

An integrated approach is suggested for the planning and evaluation of mass transport systems which includes a bus network and LRT/RTS in urban areas. This approach involves a simplified procedure for determining mass transit demand, bus route network generation and evaluation, light or rapid transit corridor identification and its patronage determination in the presence of bus networks. Scheduling of a mass transportation system based on marginal ridership concept is also suggested for a given fleet size. All the three major components (demand estimation, route network generation and scheduling) iterate and interact each other with a feedback mechanism for the desired optimal solution in terms of performance indicators. Necessary interactive software packages for all the above subsystems have been developed.     

Reducing the cost of peak hour transit service through contracting out service

Transit service contracting has responded to fiscal and financial woes of public transit agencies as the most uniquely attractive cost‐saving strategy at present. Most transit service contracting, however, has been in the traditional provision of entire fixed route bus service or commuter express bus service, and exclusive demand responsive service for the general public or for special disadvantaged population groups such as the elderly and/or the handicapped. This paper presents a new module in transit service contracting whereby the public and private operators jointly provide the peak service on the same route and at the same time. While the public agency provides the base demand of the service, the private provider provides the excess demand, both following the same schedules and similar service arrangements. In this paper, proposed service arrangements, costing and contracting procedures are discussed. It is also reported that substantial cost savings ranging from 32 to 57% with an average savings of 48% can be achieved if the excess peak hour bus transit service on highly peaked routes in public transit agencies is contracted to competing private operator(s).     

A simulation of transit bus emissions along an urban corridor: Evaluating changes under various service improvement strategies

This study investigates the impacts of transit improvement strategies on bus emissions along a busy corridor in Montreal, Canada. The local transit provider, Société de Transport de Montréal, has implemented a number of strategies which include the use of smart cards, limited-stop (express bus) service, and reserved bus lanes along this corridor. Using data collected on-board for instantaneous speeds and stop-level ridership, we estimated bus emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants at three levels: road segment, bus-stop, and per passenger. A regression of segment-level emissions against a number of explanatory variables reveals that reserved bus lanes and express bus service reduce emissions significantly. On the other hand, smart card use reduces idling emissions compared to other fare payment methods. Our findings are of most relevance for transit planners who are seeking to implement different strategies to reduce emissions and improve transit performance.     

Forecasting ridership for a metropolitan transit authority

The recent volatility in gasoline prices and the economic downturn have made the management of public transportation systems particularly challenging. Accurate forecasts of ridership are necessary for the planning and operation of transit services. In this paper, monthly ridership of the Metropolitan Tulsa Transit Authority is analyzed to identify the relevant factors that influence transit use. Alternative forecasting models are also developed and evaluated based on these factors—using regression analysis (with autoregressive error correction), neural networks, and ARIMA models—to predict transit ridership. It is found that a simple combination of these forecasting methodologies yields greater forecast accuracy than the individual models separately. Finally, a scenario analysis is conducted to assess the impact of transit policies on long-term ridership.     

A Modeling Framework for Bus Rapid Transit Operations Evaluation and Service Planning

Abstract

In this paper, we present a dynamic traffic assignment-simulation modeling framework (DYNASMART-P) to support the evaluation and planning of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) services in urban transportation networks. The model represents the different characteristics associated with BRT operations such as: exclusive right-of-way lanes, limited-stop service, signal prioritization at congested intersections, and enhanced bus stops to reduce passenger boarding times. A set of simulation experiments is conducted using the model to study the impact of introducing a hypothetical BRT service in the Knoxville area in the State of Tennessee. In these experiments, the different operational characteristics of BRT are evaluated in terms of potential impact on transit ridership and on the interacting auto traffic. The results illustrate the advantages of BRT for increasing transit ridership and improving overall system performance.     

Investigations of interactions between bus rapid transit and general traffic flows

Bus rapid transit (BRT) is a popular strategy to increase transit attraction because of its high‐capacity, comfortable service, and fast travel speed with the exclusive right‐of‐way. Various engineering designs of right‐of‐way and the violation enforcement influence interactions between BRT and general traffic flows. An empirical assessment framework is proposed to investigate traffic congestion and lane‐changing patterns at one typical bottleneck along a BRT corridor. The BRT bottleneck consists of bus lane, BRT station, video enforcement zone, and transit signal priority intersection. We analyze oblique cumulative vehicle counts and oblique cumulative lane‐changing maneuvers extracted from videos. The cumulative vehicle counts method widely applied in revealing queueing dynamics at freeway bottlenecks is extended to an urban BRT corridor. In the study site, we assume four lane‐changing patterns, three of which are verified by the empirical measurements. Investigations of interactions between buses and general traffic show that abnormal behaviors (such as lane violations and slow moving of the general traffic) induce 16% reduction in the saturation rate of general traffic and 17% increase in bus travel time. Further observations show that the BRT station and its induced increasing lane‐changing maneuvers increase the downstream queue discharge flows of general traffic. The empirical results also contribute to more efficient strategies of BRT planning and operations, such as alternative enforcement methods, various lane separation types, and optimized traffic operations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An analysis of public bus transit performance in Indian cities

Maintaining and enhancing public transit service in Indian cities is important, to meet rapidly growing mass mobility needs, and curb personal motor vehicle activity and its impacts at low cost. Indian cities rely predominantly on buses for public transport, and are likely to continue to do so for years. However, the public bus transit service is inadequate, and unaffordable for the urban poor. The paper explores the factors that contribute to and affect efforts to improve this situation, based on an analysis of the financial and operational performance of the public bus transit service in the four metropolitan centres and four secondary cities during the 1990s. Overall, there were persistent losses, owing to increasing input costs and declining productivity. The losses occurred despite rapidly increasing fares, and ridership declined. The situation, and the ability to address it, is worse in the secondary cities than the metropolitan centres. We suggest a disaggregated approach based on the needs and motivations of different groups in relation to public transit, along with improved operating conditions and policies to internalize costs of personal motor vehicle use, to address the challenge of providing financially viable and affordable public bus transit service.     

Optimization of headways with stop‐skipping control: a case study of bus rapid transit system

Bus rapid transit system is designed to provide high‐quality and cost‐efficient passenger transportation services. In order to achieve this design objective, effective scheduling strategies are required. This research aims at improving the operation efficiency and service quality of a BRT system through integrated optimization of its service headways and stop‐skipping strategy. Based on cost analysis for both passengers and operation agencies, an optimization model is established. A genetic algorithms based algorithm and an application‐oriented solution method are developed. Beijing BRT Line 2 has been chosen as a case study, and the effectiveness of the optimal headways with stop‐skipping services under different demand levels has been analyzed. The results has shown that, at a certain demand level, the proposed operating strategy can be most advantageous for passengers with an accepted increase of operating costs, under which the optimum headway is between 3.5 and 5.5 min for stop‐skipping services during the morning peak hour depending on the demand with the provision of stop‐skipping services. The effectiveness of the optimal headways with stop‐skipping services is compared with those of existing headways and optimal headways without stop‐skipping services. The results show that operating strategies under the optimal headways with stop‐skipping services outperforms the other two operating strategies with respect to total costs and in‐vehicle time for passengers. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bus Rapid Transit System in Istanbul: A Success Story or Flawed Planning Decision?

Abstract

There is a growing tendency in cities around the world to invest in Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems in an attempt to improve the capacity and quality of public transport services. The appeal of BRTs is based on their ability to combine the service level of rail transit systems with the flexibility of buses at relatively lower investment costs, and this was the motivation behind the opening of such a system in the Turkish city of Istanbul in 2007. This system has attracted mixed opinions as to its performance, as while passenger ridership figures are extremely high, proving the effectiveness of the system, there is an argument that the corridor should have been developed with rail technology, and that the BRT is failing to meet the demand. The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of this system, assessing its planning and performance through a comparative analysis of a number of BRTs in the world and Istanbul's metro and tram systems. The analysis confirms the success of the system in terms of passenger statistics, but also highlights a number of problems in certain planning decisions that should be addressed, thus taking the discussion beyond a simplified comparison of bus and rail technologies.     

Short range transit planning in Cairo

This paper describes an approach to short‐range planning that was developed to analyze and suggest improvements to the existing transit system serving metropolitan Cairo. The methodology is based on a corridor‐by‐corridor analysis which not only brings the scale of analysis down to a level which is necessary to address operational issues, but also results in a technology transfer strategy which allows the local planners to apply and test planning techniques in one corridor while more advanced techniques are developed for another. Procedures using the results of a system‐wide on‐board transit survey are developed to allocate the bus fleet to the existing bus network, identify new express services, and identify new direct services. Because the effectiveness of procedures used in short‐range transit planning depends on the existence of accurate data, and given the resources required for a large‐scale survey, the development of planning procedures based on a continuing monitoring program is also recommended. This paper concludes that although techniques using on‐board surveys are limited in their applicability, the corridor‐based approach to planning is sound.

     

Impact of weather on urban transit ridership

Utilizing daily ridership data, literature has shown that adverse weather conditions have a negative impact on transit ridership and in turn, result in revenue loss for the transit agencies. This paper extends this discussion by using more detailed hourly ridership data to model the weather effects. For this purpose, the daily and hourly subway ridership from New York City Transit for the years 2010–2011 is utilized. The paper compares the weather impacts on ridership based on day of week and time of day combinations and further demonstrates that the weather’s impact on transit ridership varies based on the time period and location. The separation of ridership models based on time of day provides a deeper understanding of the relationship between trip purpose and weather for transit riders. The paper investigates the role of station characteristics such as weather protection, accessibility, proximity and the connecting bus services by developing models based on station types. The findings indicate substantial differences in the extent to which the daily and hourly models and the individual weather elements are able to explain the ridership variability and travel behavior of transit riders. By utilizing the time of day and station based models, the paper demonstrates the potential sources of weather impact on transit infrastructure, transit service and trip characteristics. The results suggest the development of specific policy measures which can help the transit agencies to mitigate the ridership differences due to adverse weather conditions.     

Analyzing urban bus service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels

Improving the reliability of bus service has the potential to increase the attractiveness of public transit to current and prospective riders. An understanding of service reliability is necessary to develop strategies that help transit agencies provide better services. However, few studies have been conducted analyzing bus reliability in the metropolis of China. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of service reliability based on bus operational characteristics in Beijing. Three performance parameters, punctuality index based on routes (PIR), deviation index based on stops (DIS), and evenness index based on stops (EIS), are proposed for the evaluation of bus service reliability. Reliability involves routes, stops, punctuality, deviation, and evenness. The relationship among the three parameters is discussed using a numerical example. Subsequently, through a sampling survey of bus lines in Beijing, service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels are estimated. The effects of route length, headway, the distance from the stop to the origin terminal, and the use of exclusive bus lanes are also analyzed. The results indicate low service reliability for buses in Beijing and a high correlation between service reliability and route length, headway, distance from the stop to the origin terminal, and the provision of exclusive bus lanes.     

A comparison of accuracy and cost of attribute data in analysis of transit service areas using GIS

User oriented transit service is designed to meet the particular needs of a selected group of travelers. Transit Routes are located to provide convenient linkages between user's origin and destination in such a way that out-of-vehicle time, such as access and transfer time, is minimized. Planning transit routes requires understanding demographics, land use and travel patterns in an area. The dynamic nature of these systems necessitates regular review and analysis to insure that the transit system continues to meet the needs of the area it serves. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide a flexible framework for planning and analyzing transit routes and stops. Socioeconomic, demographic, housing, land use, and traffic data may be modeled in a GIS to identify efficient and effective corridors to locate routes. Part of the route location and analysis problem requires estimating population within the service area of a route. A route's service area is defined using walking distance or travel time. The problem of identifying service areas for park and ride or auto/bus users is not considered here, but assumed analogous to walk/bus trips. This paper investigates the accuracy and costs associated with the use of different attribute data bases to perform service area analysis for transit routes using GIS. A case study is performed for Logan, Utah, where a new fixed route service is operated. The case study illustrates the use of census data, postal data, data collected from aerial photographs, and data collected during a field survey using the network area analysis technique for transit service area analysis. This comparison allows us to describe the amount of error introduced by various spatial modeling techniques of data bases representing a variety of aggregation levels.     

Secrets of success: assessing the large increases in transit ridership achieved by Houston and San Diego transit providers

This paper summarizes and updates the findings from an earlier study by the same authors of transit systems in Houston (all bus) and San Diego (bus and light rail). Both systems achieved unusually large increases in transit ridership during a period in which most transit systems in other metropolitan areas were experiencing large losses. Based on ridership models estimated using cross section and time series data, the paper quantifies the relative contributions of policy variables and factors beyond the control of transit operators on ridership growth. It is found that large ridership increases in both areas are caused principally by large service increases and fare reductions, as well as metropolitan employment and population growth. In addition, the paper provides careful estimates of total and operating costs per passenger boarding and per passenger mile for Houston's bus operator and San Diego's bus and light rail operators. These estimates suggest that the bus systems are more cost-effective than the light rail system on the basis of total costs. Finally, the paper carries out a series of policy simulations to analyze the effects of transit funding levels and metropolitan development patterns on transit ridership and farebox recovery ratio.