Real time assimilation of HF radar currents into a coastal ocean model

A real time assimilation and forecasting system for coastal currents is presented. The purpose of the system is to deliver current analyses and forecasts on based on assimilation of high-frequency radar surface current measurements. The local Vessel Traffic Service monitoring the ship traffic to two oil terminals on the coast of Norway received the analyses and forecasts in real time.A new assimilation method based on optimal interpolation is presented where spatial covariances derived from an ocean model are used instead of simplified mathematical formulations. An array of high frequency radar antennae provides the current measurements. A suite of nested ocean models comprises the model system. The observing system is found to yield good analyses and short range forecasts that are significantly improved compared to a model twin without assimilation. The system is fast, analysis and 6-h forecasts are ready at the Vessel Traffic Service 45 min after acquisition of radar measurements.     

The Mercator global ocean operational analysis system: Assessment and validation of an 11-year reanalysis

This paper presents Prototype Système 2 Global (PSY2G), the first Mercator global Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) to assimilate along-track sea level anomaly (SLA) satellite data. Based on a coarse resolution ocean model, this system was developed mainly for climatic purposes and will provide, for example, initial oceanic states for coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal predictions. It has been operational since 3 September 2003 and produces an analysis and a two-week forecast for the global ocean every week. The PSY2G system uses an incremental assimilation scheme based on the Cooper and Haines [Cooper, M., Haines, K., 1996. Data assimilation with water property conservation. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 1059-1077.] lifting–lowering of isopycnals. The SLA increment is obtained using an optimal interpolation method then the correction is partitioned into baroclinic and barotropic contributions. The baroclinic ocean state correction consists of temperature, salinity and geostrophic velocity increments and the barotropic correction is a barotropic velocity increment. A reanalysis (1993–2003) was carried out that enabled the PSY2G system to perform its first operational cycle. All available SLA data sets (TOPEX/Poséïdon, ERS2, Geosat-Follow-On, Jason1 and Envisat) were assimilated for the 1993–2003 period. The major objective of this study is to assess the reanalysis from both an assimilation and a thermodynamic point of view in order to evaluate its realism, especially in the tropical band which is a key region for climatic studies. Although the system is also able to deliver forecasts, we have mainly focused on analysis. These results are useful because they give an a priori estimation of the qualities and capabilities of the operational ocean analysis system that has been implemented. In particular, the reanalysis identifies some regional biases in sea level variability such as near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, in the eastern Equatorial Pacific and in the Norwegian Sea (generally less than 1 cm) with a small seasonal cycle. This is attributed to changes in mean circulation and vertical stratification caused by the assimilation methodology. But the model's low resolution, inaccurate physical parameterisations (especially for ocean–ice interactions) and surface atmospheric forcing also contribute to the occurrence of the SLA biases. A detailed analysis of the thermohaline structure of the ocean reveals that the isopycnal lifting–lowering tends to diffuse vertically the main thermocline. The impact on temperature is that the surface layer (0–200 m) becomes cooler whereas in deeper waters (from 500 to 1500 m), the ocean becomes slightly warmer. This is particularly true in the tropics, between 30°N and 30°S. However it can be demonstrated that the assimilation improves the variability in both surface currents and sub-surface temperature in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.     

Preoperational ocean forecasting in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea: Implementation and evaluation of the models and selection of the atmospheric forcing

Within the framework of several local and international programs, a quasi-operational ocean-forecasting system for the Southeastern Mediterranean Sea has been established and evaluated through a series of preoperational tests. The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is used for simulating and predicting the hydrodynamics while the Wave Model (WAM) is used for predicting surface waves. Both models were set up to allow varying resolution and multiple nesting. In addition, POM was set up to be easily relocatable to allow rapid deployment of the model for any region of interest within the Mediterranean Sea. A common requirement for both models is the need for atmospheric forcing. Both models require time varying wind or wind stress. In addition, the hydrodynamic model requires initial conditions as well as time dependent surface heat fluxes, fresh water flux, and lateral boundary conditions at the open boundaries. Several sources of atmospheric forcing have been assessed based on their availability and their impact on the quality of the ocean models' forecasts. The various sources include operational forecast centers, other research centers, as well as running an in-house regional atmospheric model. For surface waves, higher spatial and temporal resolution of the winds plays a central role in improving the forecasts in terms of significant wave height and the timing of various high wave events. For the hydrodynamics, using the predicted wind stress and heat fluxes directly from an atmospheric model can potentially produce short range ocean forecasts that are nearly as good as hindcasts forced with gridded atmospheric analyses. Finally, a high-resolution, nested version of the model has shown to be stable under a variety of forcing conditions and time scales, thus indicating the robustness of the selected nesting strategy. For the southeastern corner of the Mediterranean, at forecast lead times of up to 4 days the high-resolution model shows improved skill over the coarser resolution driving model when compared to satellite derived sea surface temperatures. Most of the error appears to be due to the analysis error inherent in the initial conditions.     

Validation of a hybrid optimal interpolation and Kalman filter scheme for sea surface temperature assimilation

A hybrid data assimilation scheme designed for operational assimilation of satellite sea surface temperatures (SST) into an ocean model has been developed and validated against in-situ observations. The scheme consists of an optimal interpolation (OI) part and a greatly simplified Kalman filter (KF) part.The OI is performed only in the longitudinal and latitudinal directions. A climatological field is used as a background field for the interpolation. It is constructed by fitting daily averages of satellite SST to the annual mean, annual, and semiannual harmonics in a 20 km by 20 km grid. The background error covariance is approximated by a spatially varying two-dimensional exponential covariance model. The parameters of the covariance model are fitted to the deviations of the satellite data from the background field using data from a full year.The simplified KF uses ocean model forecasts as a background field. It is based on the assumption that it is possible to neglect horizontal SST covariances in the filter and that the typical time scale for vertical mixing in the mixed layer is much shorter than the average time between observations. We therefore assume that the error variance in a column of water is evenly spread out throughout the mixed layer. The result of these simplifications is a computationally very efficient KF.A one year validation of the scheme is performed for year 2001 using an operational eddy resolving ocean model covering the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. It is found that assimilation of sea surface temperature data reduces the model root mean square error from 1.13 °C to 0.70 °C. The hybrid scheme is found to reduce the root mean square error slightly more than the simplified KF without OI to 0.66 °C. The inclusion of spatially varying satellite error variances does not improve the performance of the scheme significantly.     

Parameterization of air–sea gas fluxes at extreme wind speeds

Air–sea flux measurements of O₂ and N₂ obtained during Hurricane Frances in September 2004 [D'Asaro, E. A. and McNeil, C. L., 2006. Measurements of air–sea gas exchange at extreme wind speeds. Journal Marine Systems, this edition.] using air-deployed neutrally buoyant floats reveal the first evidence of a new regime of air–sea gas transfer occurring at wind speeds in excess of 35 m s^− 1. In this regime, plumes of bubbles 1 mm and smaller in size are transported down from near the surface of the ocean to greater depths by vertical turbulent currents with speeds up to 20−30 cm s^− 1. These bubble plumes mostly dissolve before reaching a depth of approximately 20 m as a result of hydrostatic compression. Injection of air into the ocean by this mechanism results in the invasion of gases in proportion to their tropospheric molar gas ratios, and further supersaturation of less soluble gases. A new formulation for air–sea fluxes of weakly soluble gases as a function of wind speed is proposed to extend existing formulations [Woolf, D.K, 1997. Bubbles and their role in gas exchange. In: Liss, P.S., and Duce, R.A., (Eds.), The Sea Surface and Global Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 173–205.] to span the entire natural range of wind speeds over the open ocean, which includes hurricanes. The new formulation has separate contributions to air–sea gas flux from: 1) non-supersaturating near-surface equilibration processes, which include direct transfer associated with the air–sea interface and ventilation associated with surface wave breaking; 2) partial dissolution of bubbles smaller than 1 mm that mix into the ocean via turbulence; and 3) complete dissolution of bubbles of up to 1 mm in size via subduction of bubble plumes. The model can be simplified by combining “surface equilibration” terms that allow exchange of gases into and out of the ocean, and “gas injection” terms that only allow gas to enter the ocean. The model was tested against the Hurricane Frances data set. Although all the model parameters cannot be determined uniquely, some features are clear. The fluxes due to the surface equilibration terms, estimated both from data and from model inversions, increase rapidly at high wind speed but are still far below those predicted using the cubic parameterization of Wanninkhof and McGillis [Wannikhof, R. and McGillis, W.R., 1999. A cubic relationship between air–sea CO₂ exchange and wind speed. Geophysical Research Letters, 26:1889–1892.] at high wind speed. The fluxes due to gas injection terms increase with wind speed even more rapidly, causing bubble injection to dominate at the highest wind speeds.     

An approach to estimation of near-surface turbulence and CO2 transfer velocity from remote sensing data

The air–sea CO₂ exchange is primarily determined by the boundary-layer processes in the near-surface layer of the ocean since it is a water-side limited gas. As a consequence, the interfacial component of the CO₂ transfer velocity can be linked to parameters of turbulence in the near-surface layer of the ocean. The development of remote sensing techniques provides a possibility to quantify the dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy in the near-surface layer of the ocean and the air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity on a global scale. In this work, the dissipation rate of the turbulent kinetic energy in the near-surface layer of the ocean and its patchiness has been linked to the air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity with a boundary-layer type model. Field observations of upper ocean turbulence, laboratory studies, and the direct CO₂ flux measurements are used to validate the model. The model is then forced with the TOPEX POSEIDON wind speed and significant wave height to demonstrate its applicability for estimating the distribution of the near-surface turbulence dissipation rate and gas transfer velocity for an extended (decadal) time period. A future version of this remote sensing algorithm will incorporate directional wind/wave data being available from QUIKSCAT, a now-cast wave model, and satellite heat fluxes. The inclusion of microwave imagery from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) will provide additional information on the fractional whitecap coverage and sea surface turbulence patchiness.     

A Mean Dynamic Topography of the Mediterranean Sea computed from altimetric data, in-situ measurements and a general circulation model

In the Mediterranean Sea, where the mean circulation is largely unknown and characterized by smaller scales and less intensity than in the open ocean, the interpretation of altimetric Sea Level Anomalies (SLA) is rather difficult. In the context of operational systems such as MFS (Mediterranean Forecasting System) or MERCATOR, that assimilate the altimetric information, the estimation of a realistic Mean Dynamic Topography (MDT) consistent with altimetric SLA to be used to reconstruct absolute sea level is a crucial issue. A method is developed here to estimate the required MDT combining oceanic observations as altimetric and in-situ measurements and outputs from an ocean general circulation model (OGCM).In a first step, the average over the 1993–1999 period of dynamic topography outputs from MFS OGCM provides a first guess for the computation of the MDT. Then, in a second step, drifting buoy velocities and altimetric data are combined using a synthetic method to obtain local estimates of the mean geostrophic circulation which are then used to improve the first guess through an inverse technique and map the MDT field (hereafter the Synthetic Mean Dynamic Topography or SMDT) on a 1/8° resolution grid.Many interesting current patterns and cyclonic/anticyclonic structures are visible on the SMDT obtained. The main Mediterranean coastal currents are well marked (as the Algerian Current or the Liguro–Provenço–Catalan Current). East of the Sicily channel, the Atlantic Ionian Stream divides into several main branches crossing the Ionian Sea at various latitudes before joining at 19°E into a unique Mid-Mediterranean Jet. Also, strong signatures of the main Mediterranean eddies are obtained (as for instance the Alboran gyre, the Pelops, Ierapetra, Mersa-Matruh or Shikmona anticyclones and the Cretan, Rhodes or West Cyprius cyclones). Independent in-situ measurements from Sea Campaigns NORBAL in the North Balearic Sea and the North Tyrrhenian Sea and SYMPLEX in the Sicily channel are used to validate locally the SMDT: deduced absolute altimetric dynamic topography compares well with in-situ observations. Finally, the SMDT is used to compute absolute altimetric maps in the Alboran Sea and the Algerian Current. The use of absolute altimetric signal allows to accurately follow the formation and propagation of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies in both areas.     

KERFIX, a time-series station in the Southern Ocean: a presentation

Between January 1990 and March 1995, the research project KERFIX undertook the first regular noncoastal multiyear acquisition of parameters related to the carbon cycle in the Southern Ocean at a time series station located at 50°40′ S–68°25′ E, 60 miles southwest of the Kerguelen Islands. The objectives of KERFIX are (1) to monitor the ocean/atmosphere CO₂ and O₂ exchanges and to understand which processes govern these exchanges (2) to observe and interpret the seasonal and interannual variability of the production, flux, decomposition and dissolution of carbon and associated elements at this location. In addition, micropaleontological studies describe the present and past flux dynamics in this oceanic area, to improve the knowledge of the transfer functions of some oceanographic proxies. This paper presents a survey of the KERFIX program: scientific objectives, organization of the field operations and some main results obtained since the beginning of KERFIX program, as well as the results of the temporal evolution of hydrological, chemical and biological parameters.     

Mesoscale subduction at the Almeria–Oran front: Part 1: Ageostrophic flow

This paper presents a detailed diagnostic analysis of hydrographic and current meter data from three, rapidly repeated, fine-scale surveys of the Almeria–Oran front. Instability of the frontal boundary, between surface waters of Atlantic and Mediterranean origin, is shown to provide a mechanism for significant heat transfer from the surface layers to the deep ocean in winter. The data were collected during the second observational phase of the EU funded OMEGA project on RRS Discovery cruise 224 during December 1996. High resolution hydrographic measurements using the towed undulating CTD vehicle, SeaSoar, traced the subduction of Mediterranean Surface Water across the Almeria–Oran front. This subduction is shown to result from a significant baroclinic component to the instability of the frontal jet. The Q-vector formulation of the omega equation is combined with a scale analysis to quantitatively diagnose vertical transport resulting from mesoscale ageostrophic circulation. The analyses are presented and discussed in the presence of satellite and airborne remotely sensed data; which provide the basis for a thorough and novel approach to the determination of observational error.     

Integrating natural and socio-economic science in coastal management

The future more sustainable management of coastal resources is an important policy goal for all governments of countries with coastlines. Coastal areas are under intense environmental change pressure with extensive feedback effects between the natural systems and the human systems. It could be argued that there is just one jointly determined and coevolving system that needs to be studied and managed. Understanding the interactions between the coastal zone and environmental change cannot be achieved by observational studies alone. Modelling of key environmental and socio-economic processes is a vital tool, required to buttress coastal management institutions and practice. Three overlapping procedural stages can be identified in the coastal resource assessment process. The scoping and auditing stage, implemented via a ‘pressure–state–impact–response’ framework, details, among other thing, problems, system boundaries and value conflicts. The framework is itself based on a conceptual model, which lays stress on functional value diversity and the links between ecosystem processes, functions and outputs of goods and services which are deemed ‘valuable’ by society. The two subsequent stages are integrated modelling, combining natural and social science methodologies, and evaluation of management options and related gains and losses. An overview of a research project, which utilised the pressure–state–impacts–response (P–S–I–R) framework and supporting concepts and methods, is presented in the last section of the paper, together with some generic ‘lessons’ for interdisciplinary research.     

Impact of forcing errors in the CAMCAT oil spill forecasting system. A sensitivity study

The CAMCAT oil spill forecasting system is presented in this paper, and an evaluation of the impact of errors in the forcing fields over its forecasts is carried out. The system is formed by several independent modules which provide forecasts of winds, currents and waves to an oil spill module which predicts the evolution of the spill.The typical twin-experiments experience is used paying special attention to a realistic characterization of the errors when perturbing the forcing fields. The results suggest that errors in the wind and current fields are the main limiting factor for the quality of the oil spill forecasts. The pollutant identification is also crucial to determine the final vertical position and characteristics of the product.     

A numerical study of stochastic larval settlement in the California Current system

Key to the predictive understanding of many nearshore marine ecosystems is the transport of larvae by ocean circulation processes. Many species release thousands to billions of larvae to develop in pelagic waters, but only a few lucky ones successfully settle to suitable habitat and recruit to adult life stages. Methodologies for predicting the larval dispersal are still primitive, and simple diffusive analyses are still used for many important applications. In this study, we investigate mechanisms of larval dispersal using idealized simulations of time-evolving coastal circulations in the California Current system with Lagrangian particles as models for planktonic larvae. Connectivity matrices, which describe the source-to-destination relationships for larval dispersal for a given larval development time course, are used to diagnose the time–space dynamics of larval settlement. The resulting connectivity matrices are shown to be a function of several important time scales, such as the planktonic larval duration, the frequency and duration of larval release events and inherent time scales for the coastal circulations. Many important fishery management applications require knowledge of fish stocks on a year-to-year or generation-to-generation basis. For these short time scales (typically less than 1 year), larval dispersal is generally far from a simple diffusive process and the consideration of the stochastic and episodic nature of larval dispersal is required. This work provides new insights into the spatial–temporal dynamics of nearshore fish stocks.     

2013年世界船舶市场评述与未来展望

文章对2013年的世界经济发展作了概述,回顾和总结这一年的船舶市场,并对未来的发展方向进行预测。2013年的世界经济复苏缓慢,经济上行动力仍然不足。航运市场上,干散货船呈现“先抑后扬”的走势,BDI指数创下三年来的新高,油船和集装箱船走势低迷。船舶市场上已释放出一些积极的信号,新船订单量大幅攀升,船价企稳回升。三大主力船型表现相对抢眼,但海工装备订单出现下滑。2014年,预计世界经济形势将有所好转,但未来相当长一段时间都将维持低速增长。随着干散货船和油船运力增幅逐年下降,这两种船型的运力过剩现象将得到改善。然而,集装箱船运力过剩的问题依然十分突出,海工装备市场在中、短期内都有望维持较高的景气度。     

Air–sea CO2 fluxes in the Caribbean Sea from 2002–2004

Air–sea fluxes in the Caribbean Sea are presented based on measurements of partial pressure of CO₂ in surface seawater, pCO_2sw, from an automated system onboard the cruise ship Explorer of the Seas for 2002 through 2004. The pCO_2sw values are used to develop algorithms of pCO_2sw based on sea surface temperature (SST) and position. The algorithms are applied to assimilated SST data and remotely sensed winds on a 1° by 1° grid to estimate the fluxes on weekly timescales in the region. The positive relationship between pCO_2sw and SST is lower than the isochemical trend suggesting counteracting effects from biological processes. The relationship varies systematically with location with a stronger dependence further south. Furthermore, the southern area shows significantly lower pCO_2sw in the fall compared to the spring at the same SST, which is attributed to differences in salinity. The annual algorithms for the entire region show a slight trend between 2002 and 2004 suggesting an increase of pCO_2sw over time. This is in accord with the increasing pCO_2sw due the invasion of anthropogenic CO₂. The annual fluxes of CO₂ yield a net invasion of CO₂ to the ocean that ranges from − 0.04 to − 1.2 mol m^− 2 year^− 1 over the 3 years. There is a seasonal reversal in the direction of the flux with CO₂ entering into the ocean during the winter and an evasion during the summer. Year-to-year differences in flux are primarily caused by temperature anomalies in the late winter and spring period resulting in changes in invasion during these seasons. An analysis of pCO_2sw before and after hurricane Frances (September 4–6, 2004), and wind records during the storm suggest a large local enhancement of the flux but minimal influence on annual fluxes in the region.     

An algorithm for oceanic front detection in chlorophyll and SST satellite imagery

An algorithm is described for oceanic front detection in chlorophyll (Chl) and sea surface temperature (SST) satellite imagery. The algorithm is based on a gradient approach: the main novelty is a shape-preserving, scale-sensitive, contextual median filter applied selectively and iteratively until convergence. This filter has been developed specifically for Chl since these fields have spatial patterns such as chlorophyll enhancement at thermohaline fronts and small- and meso-scale chlorophyll blooms that are not present in SST fields. Linear Chl enhancements and localized (point-wise) blooms are modeled as ridges and peaks respectively, whereas conventional fronts in Chl and SST fields are modeled as steps or ramps. Examples are presented of the algorithm performance using modeled (synthetic) images as well as synoptic Chl and SST imagery. After testing, the algorithm was used on > 6000 synoptic images, 1999–2007, to produce climatologies of Chl and SST fronts off the U.S. Northeast.     

Open boundary conditions in stratified ocean models

In most applications of numerical ocean models, artificial boundaries are introduced to limit the domain. Along such a boundary we need to apply what is often referred to as an open boundary condition (OBC). In this paper a number of local methods used in barotropic ocean models are applied and discussed for the stratified case using a normal mode approach. The OBCs are the simple conditions: clamped, prescribed and zero gradient; the radiation conditions: Camerlengo–O'Brien, Orlanski and a method of characteristics based on linear equations; and a sponge type condition: the flow relaxation scheme. The OBCs have been implemented in a 3-layer ocean model and examples of how the various OBCs perform for three simple flow situations are investigated. The cases are: internal wave radiation, a quasi-steady coastal jet and the response to a storm moving across a strait. It is found that the flow relaxation scheme and the method based on characteristics perform well for the test cases in general, although some of the simpler methods give better results in individual cases.     

Effect of wave boundary layer on sea-to-air dimethylsulfide transfer velocity during typhoon passage

A full-spectral third-generation ocean wind–wave model (Wavewatch-III) implemented in the South China Sea is used to investigate the effects of the wave boundary layer on the drag coefficient and the sea-to-air transfer velocity of dimethylsulfide (DMS) during passage of Typhoon Wukong (September 5–11, 2000) with a maximum sustained wind speed of 38 m s^− 1. The model is driven by the reanalyzed surface winds (1° × 1°, four times daily) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. It is found that the wave boundary layer evidently enhances (16.5%) the drag coefficient (in turn increases the momentum flux across the air–sea interface), and reduces (13.1%) the sea-to-air DMS transfer velocity (in turn decreases the sea-to-air DMS flux). This indicates the possibility of important roles of wave boundary layer in atmospheric DMS contents and global climate system.     

海洋工程项目进度控制技术

结合海洋石油281建造项目实例,论述了海洋工程项目进度控制技术中的流程、模式、编制、贯彻、实施、跟踪、检查、调整等内容和方法。希望同类项目更加重视海洋工程进度控制技术,借鉴上述的管理内容和方法,按期完成海洋工程项目,为海洋开发打下坚实的基础。     

1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25–75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to (a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and (b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean – topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.