基于价值链的中海集运公司风险管理

现代海运业具有"高投资、高风险、高收益"的特点.由于风险众多而分散,传统的企业风险管理模式已难以满足现代航运企业对于风险管理的需求.从系统和集成的角度出发,提出了基于Hines价值链的航运企业风险管理模式,将航运企业面临的风险分为企业内部风险、企业间风险、价值链外部风险等3个层次;针对不同层次的风险宜采取不同的风险处理策略,并特别论述了上述3层次风险之间的关联性.作为案例,对中海集运公司的风险管理实践进行了剖析.结论表明,我国航运企业在企业内部风险管理方面已积累了丰富的经验,并开始重视通过企业间合作来削弱企业间风险的影响,但在价值链外部风险上尚乏举措,在风险管理文化的构建上亦有待深化.     

跨国航运企业财务风险管理

借鉴国内外财务风险管理理论与实践中一些比较成熟的方法,结合我国航运企业财务风险管理的实际情况,对我国跨国航运企业财务风险管理中的资金筹集风险、资金管理风险等相关问题进行研究,并对跨国航运企业财务风险管理的内部环境建设提出建议。     

海上交通风险管理对策

运用风险管理的有关知识,结合海上交通风险的特点探讨风险管理理论在海上交通风险中的应用,深入分析我国海上交通风险管理实践中存在的问题并有针对性地提出解决之策。     

关于提升专项风险管控能力在经营管理工作中的研究

风险管理是围绕企业总体改革发展经营目标,通过建立健全风险管理体系,本文对现金流和资金风险进行了介绍,并对风险防控提出了具体的措施。     

中远航运：风险管理履险如夷

中远航运股份有限公司在航运风险管理和控制上，有针对性地做好各种风险的预测、评估、分析、化解和转化工作，把经营目标和规避风险的措施联系在一起，通过有效的风险管理（控制），识别出真正的航运风险，并有针对性制定相应的遏制和防止措施，尽最大努力规避了风险。     

风险管理技术在某船坞工程设计中的应用

风险管理技术是～种综合管理技术。在某船坞的工程设计中应用风险管理技术,找出本工程干船坞设计中主要的风险影响因素,并采取相应的风险应对策略最大限度地减少风险,避免事故的发生,确保项目顺利的实施。     

上海港外高桥六期工程项目风险管理探讨

概述了项目风险管理的概念,从市场风险、质量风险、工期风险和其他风险方面对上海港外六期工程项目的风险要素进行了分析,并提出风险应对的一般策略和风险管理的措施建议。     

基于FSA的船舶溢油污染风险管理

首先研究对船舶溢油污染实施风险管理的必要性,进而解析应用综合安全评估(FSA)实施溢油风险管理的基本步骤与方法,提出并探讨实施溢油风险控制措施的原则及溢油风险控制措施的分类。     

高速公路工程项目总承包风险管理研究

本文从总承包商的角度研究高速公路工程项目的风险管理问题,提出将建设工程项目总承包风险管理相关理论和方法应用到高速公路工程项目的风险管理上来,对高速公路建设项目进行了生命周期各阶段的划分,从项目决策、工程设计,到项目施工、竣工验收等六个阶段的风险和不确定因素。在风险识别的基础上,进行了风险评价,对识别出的高速公路工程建设风险,提出了风险管理措施,针对高速公路建设项目的实际情况,总结出了适合工程项目特点的风险管理方法。     

基于风险管理的预控型海船监管模式

为提高对沿海船舶的监管效率和质量控制,对风险管理理论及风险识别、风险评估和风险控制技术在船舶监督风险管理上的应用进行研究,并以此为基础对广东地区4 192艘次沿海船舶的检查进行调研和统计。通过调研统计,提出针对广东地区沿海船舶检查的风险评估体系,据此将船舶分为低风险船舶、标准风险船舶和高风险船舶,分别设置不同的时间窗口进行检查。该项目是基于客观数据和风险管理策略的预控型海洋船舶监管模式研究。     

浅谈修船厂材料管理电脑控制系统的设计开发

材料管理电脑控制系统是基于改进修船厂材料管理,及时进行成本核算,减少浪费,合理利用有限资源,降低材料成本而开发的。该系统功能齐全,设计合理,能及时反映修船厂材料采购状况、库存状况及使用状况,有效监控材料成本,提供历史采购材料的价格、数量、供应商、质量等信息,并能精确核算各部门使用材料的信息,预测近期材料的需求,为管理者即时提供详细、第一手的信息,为企业资金的良好运作起到了立竿见影的作用。     

Shipping freight derivatives: a survey of recent evidence

In an industry that is characterized by highly volatile prices, seasonality, strong business cycles, cyclicality and capital intensiveness, risk management is extremely important. Ship-owners and charterers face enormous risks, which emanate from fluctuations in freight rates, bunker prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates and vessel values. These risks substantially affect the interplay between revenue and cost. Modern risk management techniques, involve the use of financial derivatives products, some of which have been developed exclusively for protecting (hedging) against the adverse price fluctuations of the aforementioned sources of risk in shipping. By using derivatives products, ship-owners and charterers can secure (stabilize) the level of their future income or costs and thus reduce uncertainty and unforeseen volatility of their cash-flow. To explore the importance of hedging freight rate risk in shipping operations, a survey of recent empirical evidence that has appeared in economic studies has been conducted. Developments over the past 20 years have been fast, with certain amount of research carried, which has helped to understand better the special features of these derivatives markets. They are all summarized in the current study, which can provide the stepping stone for further work in the area of shipping derivatives and risk management in shipping.     

Shipping freight derivatives: a survey of recent evidence

In an industry that is characterized by highly volatile prices, seasonality, strong business cycles, cyclicality and capital intensiveness, risk management is extremely important. Ship-owners and charterers face enormous risks, which emanate from fluctuations in freight rates, bunker prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates and vessel values. These risks substantially affect the interplay between revenue and cost. Modern risk management techniques, involve the use of financial derivatives products, some of which have been developed exclusively for protecting (hedging) against the adverse price fluctuations of the aforementioned sources of risk in shipping. By using derivatives products, ship-owners and charterers can secure (stabilize) the level of their future income or costs and thus reduce uncertainty and unforeseen volatility of their cash-flow. To explore the importance of hedging freight rate risk in shipping operations, a survey of recent empirical evidence that has appeared in economic studies has been conducted. Developments over the past 20 years have been fast, with certain amount of research carried, which has helped to understand better the special features of these derivatives markets. They are all summarized in the current study, which can provide the stepping stone for further work in the area of shipping derivatives and risk management in shipping.     

Dynamics and interactions between spot and forward freights in the dry bulk shipping market

Analyzing the interactions between spot and forward freight agreement (FFA) prices in the dry bulk shipping is important as they play a significant role for shipping companies to secure their profits and avoid potential risks in the volatile market. By applying the vector autoregression (VAR) and the vector error correction model (VECM), this paper identifies the long-run and mutual causal relationship between the spot and FFA prices on the BPI T/C and BCI C7 routes. Along with these cointegrating rates, exogenous factors such as the market demand and supply and some economic indices are also recognized as contributing variables for the dynamic movement of the spot and FFA prices. Importantly, the mean-reverting process is justified on both routes with different mechanisms. When the spot and FFA prices deviate from their equilibrium level in the short run, they will be adjusted to their long-run equilibrium more directly and clearly on the BPI T/C route than those on the BCI C7 route. It also indicates that this adjusting power has direction and size asymmetries on both routes. In addition, the impulse analysis indicates that the spot rate is more volatile than its corresponding FFA prices confronting innovations. The results of this study provide a reference to the participants in the dry bulk shipping market on the causes of fluctuation in spot and FFA prices and their interactions, which can be used to promote the risk management in the market.     

Efficient pricing of ships in the dry bulk sector of the shipping industry

The aim of this paper was to investigate the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in conjunction with Rational Expectations in the formation of dry bulk ship prices over the period January 1976-December 1997. Tests for market efficiency include those of orthogonality and unpredictability of excess returns on investments and tests based on the Vector Autoregressive models proposed by Campbell and Shiller. The latter methodology is extended further to a 3-variable Vector Autoregressive model, which is applicable to real assets with limited economic life. Results indicate that prices for newbuilding and second-hand vessels are not determined efficiently in the sense of Fama. Failure of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in the formation of ship prices is explained by the existence of timevarying risk premia, which relate excess returns to investors' perceptions of risk. These are modelled through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) models. The results have important implications for shipping investment strategies, both in the newbuilding and second-hand markets.     

Valuation mismatch and shipping q indicator for shipping asset management

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to develop an adaptation of the Tobin Q investment model for the shipping asset management in order to monitor valuation mismatch and bubble pricing of shipping assets. In this circumstance, the market prices of various shipping assets (e.g., Capesize or Panamax dry bulk carriers in different age profiles) are compared to the measured long-term asset value with second-hand ship prices. The mark-to-market prices of shipping assets are led by current market trends and freight rates, while the long-term asset value is estimated by using past data under certain assumptions (mean reversion, trend reversion). The discrepancy between market prices and the long-term nominal value of a shipping asset reflects any mispricing, which in turn sheds light on investment timing and market entry-exit decision.     

长江汽渡渡运装载危险品车辆的安全风险与管理对策

试从长江汽车渡船渡运装载危险品车辆的安全与防污染风险分析,探寻有效减少风险的管理对策。     

Exploring the link between oil prices and tanker rates

Given the secular and sharp rise in oil prices over the past decade, this study analyses the impact that the spike in oil prices has on tanker rates. We investigate a dynamic model explaining spot tanker rates. The magnitude of the impact of oil prices on the shipping industry, in terms of the level and volatility of spot (voyage) under bull and bear market conditions. The West African–US Gulf Tanker Rates, West Texas Intermediate spot and 3-month futures contract, and US Weekly Petroleum Inventories are analysed using cointegration and Granger causality analysis, from 1997 through 2007, in order to examine the lead–lag relationship between oil prices and tanker freight rates. Our findings show a relationship between spot and future crude oil prices, crude oil inventories and tanker rates. The significant increase of freight rates, and the simultaneous increase in oil prices, during the recent years, provides an intriguing economic environment to identify relationships between shipping market rates and oil prices. These relationships have significant implications for the markets. At the practical level, the better understanding of the relationship between freight rates and crude oil prices can improve operational management and budget planning decisions.     

谈FSA在海事现场监管模式中的应用

文中从优化行政成本与安全效益之间的费效比的角度,将风险管理理论工具安全评估方法体系（FSA）应用到海事现场网格化的监管工作k ,探讨构建一个新的海事现场监管模式,进一步优化资源配置,实现风险闭环管理.     

人民币升值对国际工程承包的影响与对策分析

随着近年来人民币不断升值,我国工程企业在境外承包工程中所取得的利润面临汇兑损失的风险,而各种付款结算方式的风险影响因素不同.为更好地应对人民币升值的影响,建议在投标报价时考虑升值和物价上涨的因素,签订合同时需加入保护性条款,分包合同应注意采取措施转移风险.