Technical changes and impacts on economic performance of dry bulk vessels

Spurred by the expanding bulk shipping and technological innovations, dry bulk vessels have gained considerable development in ship types, ship design, and operation since the invention of the first specialized dry bulk carrier in the early 1950s. However, questions like: what changes in technical specifications have occurred for dry bulk vessels during the past four decades; what triggered these changes and what impacts have these specific changes had on shipping costs or earnings potential, have never been examined systematically in previous work. Subsequently, this article attempts to investigate changes in main technical specifications and relationships between the main technical variables and their economic performance measured by costs and revenues of dry bulk carriers. Technical changes in speed, deadweight, lightweight, and engines are checked for the main types of dry bulk vessels, and trends revealed in these developments are demonstrated to be the consequences of both technical improvement and economical considerations. Additionally, it has been found that the earnings potential differs much from dry bulk vessels with different technical specifications. This can be manifested in the sensitivity analysis. The analysis of this article may contain useful information to practitioners of dry bulk shipping in guiding their market decisions about ship building and operations.     

A model for forecasting future supply of shipping services at Australian ports

This paper aims to develop an integrated model for forecasting both the number of ship visits and their characteristics in the medium and long term. Knowledge of future shipping trends for any port is no doubt important, as the future number of ship visits and their characteristics may have implications for the physical facilities of a port. In addition, more reliance on tonnages as a revenue source has made this knowledge more valuable. The proposed model identifies such major economic determinants as the expected trade throughput, world shipping trends, standards of facilities and future plans of shipping companies/agents. The model examines three possible scenarios for the Port of Melbourne and produces a range of shipping forecasts based on certain assumptions. From the model the major findings were:

world trends in shipping did not have any immediate impact on the shipping trends at the Port of Melbourne;

Future shipping services at the Port of Melbourne in the next 11 years are most likely to be determined by trade demand rather than by technological developments overseas;

there has been no evidence to indicate that the Port of Melbourne has been excluded from the schedule of general cargo ships due to the Port's physical constraints.     

Who pays the ferryman? An analysis of the ferry passenger's selection dilemma

Purpose: based on the known in the literature difference between expected and perceived quality, this study examines the factors and the ways that influence the passenger to select a ferry operator.

Methodology/approach: the research attempts to shed some light on the importance of every selection determinant by employing multinomial logistics analysis which identify that the convenience determinant is pivotal when selecting a service.

Findings: the main findings of the study indicate that among six different combinations of factors—models—perceived service quality together with price and convenience (satisfaction determinants) best describe the choice procedure followed by the passenger. The evidence is drawn from a survey performed in the Greek coastal shipping sector.

Originality/value of the paper: to survive in a competitive market, organizations must continuously strive to understand their customers' wants and needs. Although this is a highly recognized issue in the marketing agenda little or no research has been done on passenger satisfaction and the subsequent selection of a ferry operator.

Practical implications: by using the findings of this work, ferry operators may deeply and timely understand their customers' purchasing behaviour and adapt their marketing policies especially in a competitive and fast-changing environment.     

The bulk shipping business: market cycles and shipowners' biases

Despite a strong linkage with the macro-economic course, the bulk shipping market, in the short period, follows a typical cyclic pattern, where continuous freight adjustments balance demand and supply movements.

In this context—widely unstable but quite regular in its general scheme—the shipowners may have enough competencies and information to take logical and consistent decisions about ship purchasing and chartering.

Yet, why do they periodically make mistakes?

The analysis of shipowners' behaviour provides a reasonable answer: mistakes incur when they ignore or undervalue the market trends, following their personal intuition or even unwisely imitating their competitors.

The analysis of the Handysize segment among the bulk shipping business offers a significant example of the lack of timeliness in shipowners' behaviour: after a long period of disregard, operators began to notice the opportunities of this market niche and they are now heavily investing in minor units. Maybe it's not too late, but the market has already changed and only a few brave—or lucky—shipowners took advantage of the magic moment.     

Work simplificafion through the tansformation of work on board

Through a series of research on 10 Japanese ships since 1961, it was found that the relationship between number of crew and the resulting structural change of work on board ship can be formulated by a linear regression. Some of the major findings that are obtained from this new method are summarized as follows. As the number of crew decreases, the proportion of work for operating the ship (manoeuving and controlling work) increases, while the proportion of work which is not directly related to the operation decreases. This structural change can be attributed to work simplification resulting from four types of the transformation of work:

(a) The replacement of man'al work by putting machines on board.

(b) The transformation of work on board into work done by machines on shore.

(c) The transfer of work previously done on board to the shore.

(d) The transformation of work within a ship.     

Job satisfaction and personality of Merchant Navy officers

Until recently little research had been carried out into job satisfaction of seafarers. Wastage in the shipping industry is higher than most other industries and although some improvements have been made to working conditions and facilities the wastage is still very high.

During the last two decades shipping technology has changed drastically, necessitated by changing economic factors, resulting in the need for highly trained personnel. Training costs are high, particularly for officers, and could be reduced if efficient selection processes were employed.

The project is designed to study perceived and implied (calculated) job satisfaction of officers who have served in the Merchant Navy for five years or more. Gone are the days of high port-time/sea-time ratios due to increased port and labour costs. Consequently seafarers may be confined together for longer periods at sea such that a different type of personality may be required to survive the stresses and strains of such a way of life. The project also attempted to discover whether the personalitics of the seafaring officers differ from those of the shoreside population and whether personality is related to job satisfaction at sea.

The project took the form of a survey by applying a questionnaire to Merchant Navy deck, engineer and radio officers at nautical educational establishments between September and October 1978.

The results showed that the majority of officers have a moderately high level of perceived job satisfaction whereas implied satisfaction was comparatively low. The personality of officers was found to be significantly different from that of the shoreside population in almost 50% of the 31 personality scales measured. There were also found to be differences between the personalities of deck and engineer officers.

A correlational study indicated that the personality of the Merchant Navy officer is related to overall job satisfaction.     

Contributions to maritime economics—Zenon S. Zannetos, the theory of oil tankship rates

This paper discusses the importance of Zannetos' 1966 book for the development of maritime economic thought. The main contributions of the book are recounted, and the empirical work in the book is reviewed.

The analysis of the present paper is a citation research on the maritime economics literature that refers to the book. Of the 42 papers in the set, about one-third refers to the book in general. A total of 35 papers refer to one or more elements of the book, with an equal number of references to: (1) the term structure of freight rates; (2) the empirical findings on the form of the supply curve; and (3) on the verification of his results.

The general conclusion of the citation analysis is that, apparently, a number of elements of his work are still very valid for current maritime economics thinking, while maritime economists have disregarded several other elements. The latter seems unjustified for some of the business structure observations that are made in the book, such as the notion that the ship is the firm, and the elasticity of expectations. The former observation is the basis for virtually all empirical work in maritime economics that is based on individual contract data (all freight rate analysis is of this nature), and the second is the basis for the analysis of investment behaviour in shipping, investigations of cyclicality and so on.

Zannetos can definitely be seen as the initiator of the important field of term structure analysis in maritime economics. In addition to this, there are several topics in the 1966 book that are as yet unexplored, and deserve empirical scrutiny.     

Delphi forecast of the dry bulk shipping industry in the year 2000

Technological forecasting in general, and the Delphi method in particular, are new decision making tools which so far have not gained wide acceptance in shipping circles.

An attempt was made to use the Delphi method to obtain the views of industry leaders on a host of issues governing dry bulk shipping. A three-round Delphi exercise became the basis for a scenario of the industry in the year 2000.

In addition to dating future events, the exercise tested the respondents' attitudes towards investment and innovation in the field of 'bulking' new edible commodities. The scenario and other data were used as input to the process of selecting an optimal vessel for the carriage of the relevant commodities.     

US shipping policy under conditions of a new world economic and political environment

The maritime policy of the US has evolved over more than 100 years from the support of US shipping through mail and fleet auxiliary contracts before the turn of the century, to the present array of direct and indirect Government aids and regulations based on the assumption that a strong maritime industry composed of both US-flag shipping and US-shipbuilding capacity is essential for the economic well-being and defence of the country. Notwithstanding massive direct and indirect aid to the US merchant marine, amounting to well over a billion dollars a year in recent years, US shipping and shipbuilding has declined dramatically and now comprises less than 3% of world shipping. Only 2.8% of US foreign trade by volume and 6% by value is today carried in US flag ships. Government aids constitute well over 33% of total revenues of US-flag shipping.

The traditional argument for US Government support has been the need for cost parity to permit US-flag shipping to compete effectively in international trade against foreign shipping serving the same routes with presumably lower operating costs. This argument is difficult to sustain today, as vessel costs of many other industrialized nations are now about equal to those of US-flag ships.

In 1970 the US enacted a new, vastly more liberal, maritime act for the support of the US maritime industry. Notwithstanding its even more liberal terms and elimination of the strict cost-parity interpretation, the US maritime industry continues its decline. The recent bankruptcy of two old, established subsidized shipping companies has caused tremors in the industry, yet no new ideas, policies, or plans seem to be forthcoming. It is the objective of this paper to study the development and effects of various historic US Government policies relating to the support of the US maritime industry, and evaluate the positions taken by proponents or opponents of the maritime policy leading to the policy development.

The decision processes are studied by evaluating literature on the evolution of Congressional, administration, industry, and labour interest and positions on the issue of Government aid to the maritime industry. The impact and effectiveness of various elements of past and present US maritime policy is evaluated in relation to the stated objectives. The alternatives to these policies are reviewed in the light of the changing US position in international trade, military strategy, and political objectives. In addition the effectiveness of the present and alternative policies is evaluated as it is and will be affected by changing technology in use, composition of ownership, and operations of US-flag shipping and shipbuilding.     

Designing optimal routes in a liner shipping problem

A real liner shipping problem of deciding optimal weekly routes for a given fleet of ships is considered and a solution method for solving the problem is proposed. First, all feasible routes for each ship are generated together with the cost and the duration for each route. The routes are given as input to an integer programming (IP) problem. By solving the IP problem, routes for each ship are selected such that total transportation costs are minimized and the demand at each port is satisfied. The total duration for the routes that are selected for a given ship must not exceed one week.

The real liner shipping problem is solved together with four randomly generated test problems. The computational results show that proposed solution method is suitable for designing optimal routes in several liner shipping problems.     

The competitive environment of liner conferences

Although liner conferences are traditionally assumed to possess effective monopoly power, such a view ignores many important aspects of their competitive environment. This article examines some of these neglected competitive features and shows how they may decisively influence conference pricing strategies.

In the analysis of linear shipping, the notion that conferences are effective monopolists lies at the root of many of the grievances of the conference system. It has also become an integral part of the conventional wisdom of shipping economies, to such an extent that the monopoly power of conferences is virtually regarded as a matter of established fact rather than what it really is-namely a postulated assumption open to testing and refutation.

It is the purpose of this paper to explore the competitive conditions of the industry in which liner conferences operate and to try and establish the extent and limitations of their market power. This will involve an analysis of hte bariers to entry which conferences may be protected by, the manner in which the relevant industry should be defined, the possibility and consequences of new entry, and the response of conferences to their competitive environment.     

基于多层次模糊评价法的航运企业人力资源绩效综合评价

全球经济危机过后,远洋船舶运力过剩,航运企业普遍亏损,在这种态势下,人才无疑是企业最宝贵的财富。由于航运业的特殊性,其人力资源主要为船员和岸基工作人员两大类,船员的工作性质与岸基工作人员有很大的差别。文中主要研究建立航运企业针对两类人员的综合绩效评价指标体系和模型,运用多层次的模糊综合评价方法,获得各个指标权重及相应的评判值。并通过对某航运公司的人力资源进行评价证明了模型的有效性,为航运企业建立科学的人力资源绩效考评机制提供帮助。     

Competition for transhipment containers by major ports in Southeast Asia: slot capacity analysis

Container ports in Southeast Asia accounted for an estimated 30.0% of the world's transhipment traffic in 2004. The share of the region's transhipment trade was forecasted to increase to 32.5% in 2015. The potential offered by this large and expanding market encouraged major container terminal operators located in Port Klang, Singapore and Tanjung Pelepas to compete intensively for this business by attracting major container shipping lines that operated along key east-west sailing routes to hub at their terminals.

This paper analyses the annual slot capacity connected to the three selected ports that was deployed by all the container shipping lines in 1999-2004. The data are computed and categorized based on shipping trade routes. The study aims to shed light on port competition in Southeast Asia for transhipment containers by an in-depth and quantitative analysis.

The analysis finds that competition from Port Klang and Tanjung Pelepas had a negative impact on Singapore's transhipment performance. Although Singapore continued to enjoy a dominant position as the premier transhipment hub in the region in terms of market share by both transhipment throughput and annualized slot capacity, the evidence suggested that its hold on the market appeared to be slipping, albeit gradually. Overall, Tanjung Pelepas is expected to pose the strongest challenge to Singapore's transhipment hub ambitions. Managerial implications for the ports are drawn.     

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act: the trans-Atlantic cares

For many years, economists have pressed for the deregulation of the shipping industry, with studies purporting to show constant returns to scale in motor transport, and staggering losses inflicted on the economy by regulation. Deregulation is now the order of the day in the US, but during the deregulation process, the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) struggled with strong pressure to remove anti-trust immunity historically enjoyed by ocean shipping conferences.

However, instead of entirely removing this anti-trust immunity, the US Congress passed the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA) in 1998. OSRA, which came into effect on 1 May 1999, represents a logical continuation of the trend toward deregulation established by the Shipping Act of 1984. Although the Act (OSRA) maintains anti-trust immunity, its creation also established confidential service contracts between shippers and individual lines.

Because the actual effect of this Act has yet to be researched and reported in the transportation literatures, this paper assesses the impact of OSRA on the market structure of the container shipping industry. Three major east- and westbound arterial routes, as determined by Drewry Shipping Consultants and Containerisation International, are examined in this study to ascertain whether the markets are competitive or not 1, 2. The trade imbalance existing in all three trade routes (trans-Atlantic, trans-Pacific, and from Asia to northern Europe) provides a basis from which to investigate the pricing structure in the container shipping market. The changing tariff structure of the trans-Atlantic lane in 1999 provides the foremost evidence of the impact of the Act to evaluate the new law's impact on the maritime industry. By examining the traffic volume and freight rates of inbound and outbound trades, this paper found that before the second quarter of 1999, the trans-Atlantic lane's market structure was non-competitive, but it became competitive after the third quarter of 1999. This paper concludes that OSRA did have substantial influence on the market structure of the trans-Atlantic lane since the Act came into effect on 1 May 1999. The Act laid a solid legal framework upon the industry that forced the carriers in the trans-Atlantic trade route to operate competitively.     

Currency adjustment factors: some alternative strategies

The purpose of this paper is to consider some of the issues arising from currency fluctuations or currency disparities and in particular their effects upon freight earnings through the application of a currency adjustment factor (CAF).

The operation of CAFs has been a source of great concern to shippers and shipper's councils since their introduction some seven years ago. The basis of this concern has been the widening differential of applicable CAFs as a surcharge on basic freight rates. The CAF system has been regarded by many as iniquitous and punitive. Conferences have been accused of insulating themselves from currency losses due to exchange-rate variability consequent upon the introduction of flexible exchange rates in 1971. However, this mounting pressure has brought the operation of the CAF formula under close scrutiny especially from four sources.

(a) Some member Councils of the European Shippers' Council (ESC).

(b) The Japanese Shippers' Council (JSC).

(c) The question of the legality of differential CAFs under the Treaty of Rome

(d) Complaints from North Continental Maltsters.     

Some current aspects of marketing in the near-sea ferry and liner trades with particular reference to the lrish Sea

The marketing of ferry services has almost unique characteristics but little literature exists in this field. This paper is the result of a preliminary investigation, based on a series of interviews, into some current aspects of marketing on the Irish Sea. The study considers three services types: container; freight only; ro-ro and multi-purpose ro-ro.

The complementarity, or otherwise, of carrying passengers and freight together is debated, as is the organizational conflict or confusion that may arise from this type of operation. The need to adopt different marketing strategies in the freight and passenger markets is derived from consumers' different buying behaviours. The sometimes contentious relationship between product differentiation and market segmentation strategies is explored and definitions provided. Both market coverage and specialization strategies are found in the ro-ro industries and the more competitive segments are identified. Using 'purpose of travel' as the basis for segmentation, potential growth segments of the passenger market are identified. The marketing strategies employed by the freight industry are less apparent, although segmentation does seem to play a major role in the identification of target markets.

The study indicates the extent to which shipping companies on the Irish Sea have adopted the marketing concept and that scope still exists for them to make greater use of this fundamental business philosophy.     

2007年世界船舶市场评述及展望

对2007年来的世界经济发展及在此大背景下的船舶行业进行了总结和回顾,并对未来市场进行预测。2007年的世界船舶行业较2006年有所不同,不论是航运市场还是建造市场,散货船可谓独挡一面,出现了前所未有的兴旺景象。集装箱船市场稳步发展,表现好于预期,而油船市场则不尽人意,不过其建造市场却出现了量缩价涨之势。鉴于目前的市场情况,未来各船型的发展趋势将各有所向,而受新规范出台、美元疲软、材料设备成本增加、船台吃紧等因素影响,预计未来船价还将在高位运行。总体来说,虽然对航运市场运力的持续快速增长将带来一些影响,但未来一段时期内船市总体仍将保持较兴旺的局面。     

Conference-shipper loyalty contacts: Time for a re-think?

This paper examines the purposal by the British Shipper's Council (BSC) and the UK government to place a statutory limit, by means of a regulations implementing the EEC rules for competition, upon the proportion of a shipper's cudstom that may be demanded in a loyalty agreement with a liner conference.

The development of 70% loyalty is traced through the following the various drafts of the EEC competition rules for sea transport; the department of trade investigation which found freight rate disparities that were caused partially by the less competitive environment in the UK than on the Continent; and evidence given on 70% loyalty beforew the house of Lords Select Commitee on the European Communities.

By considering the precise proposals, as suggested by the BSC, and means of enforcing them, 70% loyalty is found to be eminently practicable. the short-term consequences of its introduction are unlikely to be great, considering the shippers' needs for a good quality service; but in time the additional competition fostered by a less-than-100% tie would cause radical changes; conferences would have to aopt limit-pricing and respond to competition loyalty ties might be restricted to service contracts with large shippers. These effects would be felt far more in the UK since the continental environment is in any case more competitive.

It is concluded that 70% loyalty should be imposed upon conferences by means of the EEC Regulations in order to enhance the competitive environment of linear shipping.     

珠江口水域航行安全现状分析与通航管理对策

随着海上运输的发展,大型船舶尤其是巨型油轮数量的增加,船舶航速的提高,珠江口水道越来越拥挤,使得加强船舶动态的监控管理、保障船舶航行安全、维护水域船舶通航秩序、预防和减少水上交通安全事故与水上环境污染等问题,越来越受到人们的关注。