A distribution-fitting-free approach to calculating travel time reliability ratio

Empirical studies have revealed that travel time variability (TTV) can significantly affect travelers’ behaviors and planners’ cost-benefit assessment of transportation projects. It is therefore important to systematically quantify the value of TTV (VTTV) and its impact. Recently, Fosgerau’s valuation method makes this quantification possible by converting the value of travel time (VTT) and the VTTV into monetary unit. Travel time reliability ratio (TTRR), defined as a ratio of the VTTV to the VTT, is a key parameter in Fosgerau’s valuation method. Calculating TTRR involves an integral of the inverse cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the standardized travel time distribution (STTD), i.e., the mean lateness factor. Using a well-fitted STTD is a straightforward way to calculate TTRR. However, it will encounter the following challenges: (1) determination of a well-fitted STTD; (2) non-existence of an algebraic expression for the CDF and its inverse CDF; and (3) lack of a closed-form expression to efficiently calculate TTRR. To circumvent the above issues, this paper proposes a distribution-fitting-free analytical approach based on the Cornish-Fisher expansion as an alternative way to calculate TTRR without the need to fit the whole CDF. The validity domain is rigorously derived for guaranteeing the accuracy of the proposed method. Realistic travel time datasets that cover 17 links are used to systematically explore the feature and accuracy of the proposed method in estimating TTRR. The comparative results demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently and effectively estimate TTRR. When travel time datasets satisfy the validity domain, the proposed method outperforms the distribution fitting method in estimating TTRR.     

基于两种拱盖法修建的青岛地区上软下硬岩质地层大跨隧道结构稳定性研究

拱盖法是基于纵深刚度差异较大的“上软下硬”地层条件,在充分吸取盖挖法、双侧壁导坑法等工法的成功经验或者不足之处的基础上发展起来的一种暗挖大跨隧道修建技术,拱盖法主要有双层初期支护拱盖法和二次衬砌拱盖法。文章以青岛地铁某暗挖大跨车站为例,结合站址范围内上软下硬复合地层的特征,通过数值方法对两种拱盖法修筑的隧道结构稳定性进行分析研究。结果表明:1)二次衬砌拱盖法采用纵向9 m拆撑安全步距施工时,外层初期支护棚护作用的“空间刚度效应”不足以弥补其拱盖的“拱”效应,双层初期支护拱盖法修筑技术更有利于隧道变形控制;2)隧道下部岩体开挖时拱盖结构的承载、保护作用显著,但在相同等地质环境条件下,二次衬砌拱盖法施工对拱脚岩体的塑性破坏作用更明显,换言之即二次衬砌拱脚对岩基的强度和刚度要求更高;3)初期支护拱盖法结构受力控制部位为拱肩及拱脚,二次衬砌拱盖法结构受力控制部位为拱脚,后者拱脚控制内力约为前者的1.56倍,前者的“梁”效应比较明显,后者的“脚”效应比较明显;4)为地铁百年服务工程安全计,建议优先考虑采用双层初期支护拱盖法施工。     

Correcting state dependence and serial correlation in the RP/SP combined estimation method

Revealed preference (RP) data and stated preference (SP) data have complementary characteristics for model estimation. To enhance the advantages of both data types, a combined estimation method is proposed. This paper discusses the method and practical considerations in applying it, and introduces a new method of considering serial correlation of RP and SP data. An empirical analysis is also presented.     

Global convergence of the trial-and-error method for the traffic-restraint congestion-pricing scheme with day-to-day flow dynamics

The traffic-restraint congestion-pricing scheme (TRCPS) aims to maintain traffic flow within a desirable threshold for some target links by levying the appropriate link tolls. In this study, we propose a trial-and-error method using observed link flows to implement the TRCPS with the day-to-day flow dynamics. Without resorting to the origin–destination (O–D) demand functions, link travel time functions and value of time (VOT), the proposed trial-and-error method works as follows: tolls for the traffic-restraint links are first implemented each time (trial) and they are subsequently updated using observed link flows in a disequilibrium state at any arbitrary time interval. The trial-and-error method has the practical significance because it is necessary only to observe traffic flows on those tolled links and it does not require to wait for the network flow pattern achieving the user equilibrium (UE) state. The global convergence of the trial-and-error method is rigorously demonstrated under mild conditions. We theoretically show the viability of the proposed trial-and-error method, and numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate its performance. The result of this study, without doubt, enhances the confidence of practitioners to adopt this method.     

Pedestrian detection for traffic safety based on Accumulate Binary Haar features and improved deep belief network algorithm

ABSTRACT

In order to improve traffic safety and protect pedestrians, an improved and efficient pedestrian detection method for auto driver assistance systems is proposed. Firstly, an improved Accumulate Binary Haar (ABH) feature extraction algorithm is proposed. In this novel feature, Haar features keep only the ordinal relationship named by binary Haar features. Then, the feature brings in the idea of a Local Binary Pattern (LBP), assembling several neighboring binary Haar features to improve discriminating power and reduce the effect of illumination. Next, a pedestrian classification method based on an improved deep belief network (DBN) classification algorithm is proposed. An improved method of input is constructed using a Restricted Bolzmann Machine (RBM) with T distribution function visible layer nodes, which can convert information on pedestrian features to a Bernoulli distribution, and the Bernoulli distribution can then be used for recognition. In addition, a middle layer of the RBM structure is created, which achieves data transfer between the hidden layer structure and keeps the key information. Finally, the cost-sensitive Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier is used for the output of the classifier, which could address the class-imbalance problem. Extensive experiments show that the improved DBN pedestrian detection method is better than other shallow classic algorithms, and the proposed method is effective and sufficiently feasible for pedestrian detection in complex urban environments.     

A dynamic traffic assignment model for a continuum transportation system

A predictive continuum dynamic user-optimal (PDUO-C) model is formulated in this study to investigate the dynamic characteristics of traffic flow and the corresponding route-choice behavior of travelers within a region with a dense urban road network. The modeled region is arbitrary in shape with a single central business district (CBD) and travelers continuously distributed over the region. Within this region, the road network is represented as a continuum and travelers patronize a two-dimensional continuum transportation system to travel to the CBD. The PDUO-C model is solved by a promising solution algorithm that includes elements of the finite volume method (FVM), the finite element method (FEM), and the explicit total variation diminishing Runge-Kutta (TVD-RK) time-stepping method. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the utility of the proposed model and the effectiveness of the solution algorithm in solving this PDUO-C problem.     

A cost optimized steel bridge girder design for aashto - WSD and LFD

A cost optimized design method of steel bridge girders is studied by using the specifications of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation (AASHTO) Working Stress Design (WSD) method and Load Factor Design (LFD) alternates. Here, cost trade-offs for the steel plate (e.g., the base price plus extras for size, grade, testing and inspection, etc.), stiffeners and splicing are weighed throughout the entire span to minimize the objective function. The method is then applied to a set of over 30 steel bridge structures which collected from various state bridge inventories in order to obtain optimal cost configurations for both WSD and LFD methods. These results are analyzed by a linear regression model to define relationships between cost differences and bridge lengths. From these comparisons, conclusions are drawn to provide the guidelines. It is believed that effective application of these guidelines should lead to more economical designs, especially under the LFD method.     

Estimation of population origin–interchange–destination flows on multimodal transit networks

Previous research has combined automated fare-collection (AFC) and automated vehicle-location (AVL) data to infer the times and locations of passenger origins, interchanges (transfers), and destinations on multimodal transit networks. The resultant origin–interchange–destination flows (and the origin–destination (OD) matrices that comprise those flows), however, represent only a sample of total ridership, as they contain only those journeys made using the AFC payment method that have been successfully recorded or inferred. This paper presents a method for scaling passenger-journey flows (i.e., linked-trip flows) using additional information from passenger counts at each station gate and bus farebox, thereby estimating the flows of non-AFC passengers and of AFC passengers whose journeys were not successfully inferred.The proposed method is applied to a hypothetical test network and to AFC and AVL data from London’s multimodal public transit network. Because London requires AFC transactions upon both entry and exit for rail trips, a rail-only OD matrix is extracted from the estimated multimodal linked-trip flows, and is compared to a rail OD matrix generated using the iterative proportional fitting method.     

Multiple criteria optimization method for the vehicle assignment problem in a bus transportation company

A vehicle assignment problem (VAP) in a road, long‐haul, passenger transportation company with heterogeneous fleet of buses is considered in the paper. The mathematical model of the VAP is formulated in terms of multiobjective, combinatorial optimization. It has a strategic, long‐term character and takes into account four criteria that represent interests of both passengers and the company's management. The decision consists in the definition of weekly operating frequency (number of rides per week) of buses on international routes between Polish and Western European cities. The VAP is solved in a step‐wise procedure. In the first step a sample of efficient (Pareto‐optimal) solutions is generated using an original metaheuristic method called Pareto Memetic Algorithm (PMA). In the second step this sample is reviewed and evaluated by the Decision Maker (DM). In this phase an interactive, multiple criteria analysis method with graphical facilities, called Light Beam Search (LBS), is applied. The method helps the DM to define his/her preferences, direct the search process and select the most satisfactory solution.     

Global optimization method for mixed transportation network design problem: A mixed-integer linear programming approach

This paper proposes a global optimization algorithm for solving a mixed (continuous/discrete) transportation network design problem (MNDP), which is generally expressed as a mathematical programming with equilibrium constraint (MPEC). The upper level of the MNDP aims to optimize the network performance via both expansion of existing links and addition of new candidate links, whereas the lower level is a traditional Wardrop user equilibrium (UE) problem. In this paper, we first formulate the UE condition as a variational inequality (VI) problem, which is defined from a finite number of extreme points of a link-flow feasible region. The MNDP is approximated as a piecewise-linear programming (P-LP) problem, which is then transformed into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem. A global optimization algorithm based on a cutting constraint method is developed for solving the MILP problem. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method and to compare the results with alternative algorithms reported in the literature.     

Making mode detection transferable: extracting activity and travel episodes from GPS data using the multinomial logit model and Python

The increasing popularity of global positioning systems (GPSs) has prompted transportation researchers to develop methods that can automatically extract and classify episodes from GPS data. This paper presents a transferable and efficient method of extracting and classifying activity episodes from GPS data, without additional information. The proposed method, developed using Python®, introduces the use of the multinomial logit (MNL) model in classifying extracted episodes into different types: stop, car, walk, bus, and other (travel) episodes. The proposed method is demonstrated using a GPS dataset from the Space-Time Activity Research project in Halifax, Canada. The GPS data consisted of 5127 person-days (about 47 million points). With input requirements directly derived from GPS data and the efficiency provided by the MNL model, the proposed method looks promising as a transferable and efficient method of extracting activity and travel episodes from GPS data.     

The nonlinear equation system approach to solving dynamic user optimal simultaneous route and departure time choice problems

Dynamic user optimal simultaneous route and departure time choice (DUO-SRDTC) problems are usually formulated as variational inequality (VI) problems whose solution algorithms generally require continuous and monotone route travel cost functions to guarantee convergence. However, the monotonicity of the route travel cost functions cannot be ensured even if the route travel time functions are monotone. In contrast to traditional formulations, this paper formulates a DUO-SRDTC problem (that can have fixed or elastic demand) as a system of nonlinear equations. The system of nonlinear equations is a function of generalized origin-destination (OD) travel costs rather than route flows and includes a dynamic user optimal (DUO) route choice subproblem with perfectly elastic demand and a quadratic programming (QP) subproblem under certain assumptions. This study also proposes a solution method based on the backtracking inexact Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) method, the extragradient algorithm, and the Frank-Wolfe algorithm. The BFGS method, the extragradient algorithm, and the Frank-Wolfe algorithm are used to solve the system of nonlinear equations, the DUO route choice subproblem, and the QP subproblem, respectively. The proposed formulation and solution method can avoid the requirement of monotonicity of the route travel cost functions to obtain a convergent solution and provide a new approach with which to solve DUO-SRDTC problems. Finally, numeric examples are used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed solution method.     

Low cost two dimension navigation using an augmented Kalman filter/Fast Orthogonal Search module for the integration of reduced inertial sensor system and Global Positioning System

Due to their complementary characteristics, Global Positioning System (GPS) is integrated with standalone navigation devices like odometers and inertial measurement units (IMU). Recently, intensive research has focused on utilizing Micro-Electro-Mechanical-System (MEMS) grade inertial sensors in the integration because of their low-cost. In this study, a low cost reduced inertial sensor system (RISS) is considered. It consists of a MEMS-grade gyroscope and the vehicle built-in odometer. The system works together with GPS to provide 2D navigation for land vehicles. With adequate accuracy, Kalman filter (KF) is the commonly used estimation technique to achieve the data fusion of GPS and inertial sensors in case of high-end IMUs. However, due to the inherent error characteristics of MEMS grade devices, MEMS-based RISS suffers from the non-stationary stochastic sensor errors and nonlinear inertial errors, which cannot be handled by KF and its linear error models. To overcome the problem, Fast Orthogonal Search (FOS), a nonlinear system identification technique, is suggested for modeling the higher order RISS errors. As a general-purpose numerical method, FOS algorithm has the ability to figure out the system nonlinearity efficiently with a tolerance of arbitrary stochastic system noise. Even using online short-term training data, this method is still able to build an accurate nonlinear model that predicts the system dynamics. Motivated by the above merits, an augmented KF/FOS module is proposed by cascading FOS algorithm to a traditional KF structure. By estimating and reducing both linear and nonlinear RISS errors, the proposed method is supposed to offer substantial enhancement on the positioning accuracy of MEMS-based RISS during GPS outages. In order to examine the effectiveness of the proposed technique, the KF/FOS module is applied on the low cost RISS together with GPS in a land vehicle for several road test trajectories. The performance of the proposed method is compared to KF-only solution, both assessed with respect to a reference offered by a high-end solution. The experimental results confirm that KF/FOS module outperforms KF-only method. The results also show the applicability of the proposed method for real-time vehicle applications.     

Statistical inference on transit route‐level origin–destination flows using automatic passenger counter data

We consider inferring transit route‐level origin–destination (OD) flows using large amounts of automatic passenger counter (APC) boarding and alighting data based on a statistical formulation. One critical problem is that we need to enumerate the OD flow matrices that are consistent with the APC data for each bus trip to evaluate the model likelihood function. The OD enumeration problem has not been addressed satisfactorily in the literature. Thus, we propose a novel sampler to avoid the need to enumerate OD flow matrices by generating them recursively from the first alighting stop to the last stop of the bus route of interest. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that incorporates the proposed sampler is developed to simulate the posterior distributions of the OD flows. Numerical investigations on an operational bus route under a realistic OD structure demonstrate the superiority of the proposed MCMC method over an existing MCMC method and a state‐of‐the‐practice method. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical estimation of the parameters of Daganzo's gap acceptance model

In a recent article in Transportation Research, Daganzo (1981) described a model of gap acceptance that permits the mean of the gap acceptance function to vary among drivers and permits the duration of the shortest acceptable gap for each driver to vary among gaps. The model contains several constant parameters whose values must be estimated statistically from observations of drivers' behavior. The results of numerical experiments reported by Daganzo (1981) suggested that the values of the parameters cannot be estimated by the method of maximum likelihood, which is the most obvious estimation technique, and Daganzo proposed using a sequential estimation method instead. The sequential method appeared to yield reasonable numerical results. In this paper, it is shown that subject to certain reasonable assumptions concerning the true parameter values and the probability distribution of gap durations, the maximum likelihood method does, in fact, yield consistent estimates of the parameters of Daganzo's model, whereas the sequential method does not. Hence, maximum likelihood is the better estimation method for this model.     

Anti-seismic reinforcement strategy for an urban road network

This paper provides a novel practical method for analyzing an anti-seismic reinforcement (ASR) problem involving hundreds of transportation facilities on an urban road network subject to multiple earthquake risks. The relevant properties of the present method are: (i) it evaluates the performance of an ASR strategy, taking into account traffic congestion and travelers’ trip-making or route-choice behavior; (ii) it estimates the realistic damage patterns on the road network and their occurrence probabilities on the basis of recent advances in structural and earthquake engineering; (iii) it has clear, sensible logic and includes neither a black-box nor a “lottery” in the necessary procedures. We examine the computational efficiency and whether the present method is reasonable by applying it to a test scenario of the Kobe urban and suburban area.     

Location selection of city logistics centers under sustainability

City Logistics Centers (CLC) are an important part of the modern urban logistics system, and the selection of the location of a CLC has become a key problem in logistics and supply chain management. Integrating the economic, environmental, and social dimensions of sustainable development, this paper presents a new evaluation system for the location selection of a CLC from a sustainability perspective. A fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making (FMAGDM) technique based on a linguistic 2-tuple is used to evaluate potential alternative CLC locations. In this method, the linguistic evaluation values of all the evaluation criteria are transformed into linguistic 2-tuples. A new 2-tuple hybrid ordered weighted averaging (THOWA) operator is presented to aggregate the overall evaluation values of all experts into a collective evaluation value for each alternative, which is then used to rank and select alternative CLC locations. An application example is provided to validate the method developed and to highlight the implementation, practicality, and effectiveness by comparing with the fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method.     

Connectivity-based optimization of vehicle route and speed for improved fuel economy

Traditionally, vehicle route planning problem focuses on route optimization based on traffic data and surrounding environment. This paper proposes a novel extended vehicle route planning problem, called vehicle macroscopic motion planning (VMMP) problem, to optimize vehicle route and speed simultaneously using both traffic data and vehicle characteristics to improve fuel economy for a given expected trip time. The required traffic data and neighbouring vehicle dynamic parameters can be collected through the vehicle connectivity (e.g. vehicle-to-vehicle, vehicle-to-infrastructure, vehicle-to-cloud, etc.) developed rapidly in recent years. A genetic algorithm based co-optimization method, along with an adaptive real-time optimization strategy, is proposed to solve the proposed VMMP problem. It is able to provide the fuel economic route and reference speed for drivers or automated vehicles to improve the vehicle fuel economy. A co-simulation model, combining a traffic model based on SUMO (Simulation of Urban MObility) with a Simulink powertrain model, is developed to validate the proposed VMMP method. Four simulation studies, based on a real traffic network, are conducted for validating the proposed VMMP: (1) ideal traffic environment without traffic light and jam for studying the fuel economy improvement, (2) traffic environment with traffic light for validating the proposed traffic light penalty model, (3) traffic environment with traffic light and jam for validating the proposed adaptive real-time optimization strategy, and (4) investigating the effect of different powertrain platforms to fuel economy using two different vehicle platforms. Simulation results show that the proposed VMMP method is able to improve vehicle fuel economy significantly. For instance, comparing with the fastest route, the fuel economy using the proposed VMMP method is improved by up to 15%.     

Convergence of the Frank-Wolfe method for certain bounded variable traffic assignment problems

In two recent papers published in Transportation Research, Daganzo presented a modification of the Frank-Wolfe algorithm to solve certain link capacitated traffic assignment problems satisfying certain conditions. In order to show convergence of the modified algorithm, the assumption was made that the integral of the volume delay formula for each link tends to infinity as the link flow approaches the link capacity. In this paper we give a Theorem which establishes convergence of the modified algorithm under much weaker conditions. This result is then used to show convergence if the objective function of the assignment model is sufficiently large (not necessarily infinite) when the link flows are at capacity. Thus the modified method is applicable to a broader class of assignment problems. Two numerical examples illustrate (a) when the method converges and when it does not, and (b) that our Theorem provides a weaker condition for convergence of the method.     

A novel dynamic segmentation model for identification and prioritization of black spots based on the pattern of potential for safety improvement

Road segmentation is one of the most important steps in identification of high accident-proneness segments of a road. Based on the ratio of the Potential to Safety Improvement (PSI) along the road, the objective of the paper is to propose a novel dynamic road segmentation model. According to the fundamental model assumption, the determined segments must have the same pattern of PSI. Experimental results obtained from implementation of the proposed method took four Performance Measures (PMs) into consideration; namely, Crash Frequency, Crash Rate, Equivalent Property Damage Only, and Expected Average Crash Frequency with Empirical Bayes adjustment into the accident data obtained from Highway 37 located between two cities in Iran. Results indicated the low sensitivity of the method to PMs. In comparison with the real high accident-proneness segments, identified High Crash Road Segments (HCRS) obtained from the model, demonstrated the potential of the method to recognize the position and length of high accident-proneness segments accurately. Based on the road repair and maintenance costs limitation index for safety improvement, in an attempt to compare the proposed method of road segmentation with conventional ones, results demonstrated the efficient performance of the proposed method. So as to identify 20 percent HCRS located on a read, the proposed method showed an improvement of 38 and 57 percent in comparison with the best and worst outcomes derived from conventional road segmentation methods.