Are AIS-based trade volume estimates reliable? The case of crude oil exports

Most global trade statistics in the public domain refer to official customs data, which are not generally available on a micro (individual cargo) level. With the increasing availability and completeness of ship positioning data from the global Automated Identification System (AIS), it is possible to derive more timely and detailed trade statistics for homogeneous commodity groups. The objective of this article is twofold: (1) to compare the accuracy of AIS-derived trade statistics to official customs data in the crude oil market and (2) to add a breakdown of trade by vessel size over time. We find that while AIS-derived data for seaborne crude exports show good alignment with official export numbers in aggregate, there are substantial temporal and geographical differences across countries and time due to the use of pipelines and transshipment in parts of the supply chain. We highlight the challenges in properly structuring and aggregating micro-level cargo data. Our findings are important for the proper derivation of shipping demand from trade data.     

Overseas trade vis-a-vis overseas shipping: Growth and performance in India (1999–2009)

Maritime trade has been and even continues to account for about a lion's share of India's total cargo volumes. Despite the growth of multimodal transport (by land, water and air), shipping still continues to be the major mode of transport in the bulk carriage of country's overseas trade. In view of this vital role of shipping, in the first four decades of independence, under the initiative of planned development and active government support, India's shipping and port sector saw dramatic growth in their performance to build adequate national fleet, in keeping up with the transport of overseas cargo. However, the onset of economic liberalization in 1991 has given rise to many new dimensions in the development of the shipping and port sector of the country with a significant redefinition of shipping and port services, in response to the new global trend patterns. For instance, it has also established the new era of containerization in the mode of cargo delivery from the dominance of the era of bulk and break-bulk trade during the decade of sixties and seventies. Moreover, as global competition increases, in response to this emerging trade patterns within this country, India's volume of traffic growth also increases manifold. So, India's shipping and port sectors need, significantly, to build up and furnish their capacity by increasing the frequency of this mode of transport i.e. the growth of the national overseas fleet to meet this surging demand. This paper, therefore, have focused on this role of shipping in such rising overseas trade, with a view to examine the shipping performance (the growth of overseas fleet) in response to the growing overseas trade at all ports of India during the period (1999–2000 to 2008–2009), in terms of both a mathematical model and a graphical representation. Finally, it concludes that the absolute overseas trade, being highly import dependent, have led to a more or less stagnant performance in overseas shipping, owing to the lack of the adequate growth of absolute overseas exports during this period.     

Independent Baltic State ports: the outlook for commercial viability?

This study employs the 'shift-share' technique to assay the status of seaport in the newly-independent Baltic States in terms of their prospects for commercial viability. It delineates the material, economic and political conditions confrontiger port managers and policy makers in these states. Each must deal with the consequences of disruption of long-standing trade dependencis and the transition from opeation within 'the Rouble zone' to free market structures integrated with western trade systems. These problems are compounded by Russia's appaent policy decision to re-route transit cargo away from Baltic State ports, the traditional 'window on the West'. to ports located in Russia itselft. Disruption of traditional hinterlands and transit cargo volumes for Baltic State ports will impact their ability to invest in essntial modernization and expansion projects, necessitated by emerging competitive pressures. It is speculated that one potential strategy available for capturing a niche and reclaiming the role of the East-West commercial bridge is through participation in the Trans-Siberian Railway 'land-bridge' trade.     

散货船水尺检量分析

考虑到不同国家和地区的水尺检量员在实际水尺检量工作中,对船舶排水量计算存在不同的理解和认识,使得大宗商品国际贸易中对商品数量的认定存在着一些纠纷,基于水尺检量原理,结合实际工作经验,分析水运散装货物船船水尺检量过程中影响计量的因素,为准确计量货物提供参考。     

Optimizing the transportation of international container cargoes in Korea

This paper considers a multimodal transportation problem, which is the problem of determining the transportation flow, i.e. volume of container cargoes, and the transportation mode in each trade route, for the objective of minimizing the sum of shipping and inland transportation costs. The problem takes account of two restrictions: maximum cargo volumes capacitated at each seaport and maximum number of vehicles available at each transportation mode. To solve optimally the problem, this paper employs a mixed integer programming, which is an operations research technique. A case study is performed on the container cargo data in Korea and we draw several implications to improve efficiency in the transportation of international trade cargoes in Korea.     

Optimizing the transportation of international container cargoes in Korea

This paper considers a multimodal transportation problem, which is the problem of determining the transportation flow, i.e. volume of container cargoes, and the transportation mode in each trade route, for the objective of minimizing the sum of shipping and inland transportation costs. The problem takes account of two restrictions: maximum cargo volumes capacitated at each seaport and maximum number of vehicles available at each transportation mode. To solve optimally the problem, this paper employs a mixed integer programming, which is an operations research technique. A case study is performed on the container cargo data in Korea and we draw several implications to improve efficiency in the transportation of international trade cargoes in Korea.     

Highly disaggregrated models of seaborne trade. An empirical model for bilateral dry-cargo trade flows in the World economy

The aim of this paper is to estimate an empirical model of bilateral dry-cargo seaborne import flows in the international economy. Seaborne trade elasticities are estimated for the first time, utilizing the Constant Ratio of Elasticities of Substitution Homogeneous/Homothetic (CRESH) function, a function very rarely used in the past. Highly disaggregated data on volumes of seaborne trade, published by the UN, distinguish between five types of cargo according to the type of ship used for its transportation, and 30 trading regions according to the major sea-lancs used by ships internationally. Multistage budgeting is employed to make the problem of estimation tractable. An empirical model for dry-bulk cargo is estimated based on the CRESH function. Estimation of bilateral export price elasticities enables comparison of the degree of competition in each import market over export regions, and amongst import markets themselves. Risk-averse ship owners may utilize such a comparison to operate in world shiplanes with low degree of competition.     

A game theory analysis of port specialization—implications to the Chinese port industry

The fast growth of the Chinese economy and its international seaborne trade has escalated the demand for high-quality and efficient port services. “Decentralization” of the port management regime has given local government greater freedom in port development and operational decision-making. However, major port capacity expansion in coastal areas, coupled with the slowing down of both the economy and trade growth over recent years, has led to overcapacity and excessive competition. Although both port specialization and government regulations are called for to address these issues, few studies have investigated the formation mechanism and economic implications of port specialization. This paper uses alternative duopoly games, namely a Stackelberg game and a simultaneous game, to model port competition, where ports provide differentiated services in the sectors of containerized cargo and dry-bulk cargo. Our analytical results reveal that inter-port competition can lead to port specialization in the following three ways. A port can specialize in a type of cargo (1) for which there is relatively high demand, (2) where it has established capacity first, or (3) for services which require prohibitively high capacity costs. Also, it is seen that overcapacity is likely if strategic port decisions are made simultaneously instead of sequentially. These results suggest that if there is a clear market leader, policy intervention may not be necessary. However, if no port has clear market power, then government coordination and intervention may be needed in order to prevent overcapacity and to encourage specialization.     

水安全风险预警系统研究

从水安全风险的角度出发,系统分析了水安全方面存在不确定因素,建立了水安全风险预警指标体系,确定了风险指标及其相应的预警阀值和预警信号,并应用系统动力学方法建立了水安全风险预警模型。     

Large oil tankers and the Baltic marine environment: A statistical survey

The short Baltic export route for Russian oil is an attractive source of supply for the European energy market. The article examines the Russian oil export trade in the Baltic based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data from 2005 matched with supplementary data. The first part of the article gives a survey of activities and characteristics of 261 large crude oil tankers, their flag states and owner countries. The second part views the data in the context of accidental oil spill risk. Greek and Russian owners are leading carriers in this trade. Russia plays a double leading role as oil exporter and shipowning country, securing major cargo shares for nationally owned vessels, while also giving a preferential spot in the trade to Greek owners. Where environmental aspects are concerned, previous research has linked vessel characteristics with the risk of casualty. Knowledge of flag, age, ownership and activity levels adds useful information about environmental risk. The data show that flags associated with very high casualty or detention probabilities were represented by 18% of the activity in this trade. Older vessels have a similar share, and at this particular time probably represent the more serious threat of accidental oil spills.     

The design of liner shipping serives: the problem of feeder services versus multi-port-calls

In this paper, the authors outline the structure of liner shipping systems with special emphasis on the question of whether feeder services are superior in economic terms to the more traditional and commonly-used multi-port-calling system. They describe the theoretical advantages of the former over the latter, and develop a model by which the optimal conditions both operate in may be determined. This model is then applied to a real situation to ascertain whether the theory works in practice. They conclude that the shuuttle/feeder system is worthwhile only in exceptional circumstances when specific route characteristics—low trade density; hinterland generated cargo; inland position of port; and heavy congestion—coexist. Despite the expense of multi-port-calling, it remains the most practical solution to the thin trade problem.     

4000 TEU内贸集装箱船船型开发综述

为提高船舶的经济性、适用性和竞争力,针对内贸箱船航运特点,介绍内贸集装箱船的研发设计思路及应考虑的问题。以4 000 TEU佳豪内贸箱船船型为例,根据该船型具有的低油耗、大载重吨、高装箱率、快捷牢靠的堆装系统,以及是目前国内最大的专用内贸集装箱船的特点,对该船型的各项性能指标做了较为系统的分析和探讨。     

Analysis of container port policy by the reaction of an equilibrium shipping market

In the competitive container cargo transportation market, shipping companies are drastically changing their strategy vis-a-vis routing and port choice by the formation of global alliances. In such a situation, the effectiveness of port management policy in persuading container liners to use the port is most important. The paper discusses port management policy in an equilibrium shipping market. A model is proposed to simulate the flow of foreign trade container cargo using game theory. It is used to explain the interaction of port management policy, shipping companies and shippers.     

Port development within the framework of Malaysia's transport policy: some considerations

There is disjunction between the national port policy and the national transport policy in Malaysia, as the latter, for much of its time, focused on national integration rather than trade facilitation. During Malaysia's concentration on national integration, it relied on Singapore as its main port. This allowed Singapore to develop as a centre of transport for Malaysian trade. To break Singapore's stranglehold on its cargo and to make Port Klang a regional hub port, Malaysia must reconcile its national transport and port policies, with the main aim of facilitating trade. In view of the strong presence of transnational corporations in its trade and the fact that world trade today is based on reciprocity, Malaysia may have to consider a more laissez faire approach with regard to port development.     

A simulation study on the design of flexible cargo holds in small-sized bulk ships

A simulation study on the design of flexible cargo holds in small-sized bulk ships is presented. The ships considered are equipped with moveable bulkheads which can be placed in a given number of positions in the cargo hold. In this way the ships' cargo holds can be partitioned into several smaller holds with flexible sizes, and several cargoes can be lifted simultaneously by the same ship. The simulation study deals with designing an optimal cargo hold 'configuration' which gives the best flexibility when cargo quantities vary. The results show that there are significant potential savings by finding an optimal cargo hold configuration.     

FFA在航运市场风险管理中的应用

随着国际干散货贸易的繁荣和运价波动性的加大,在过去几年里FFA市场也得到较大发展。分析国际干散货航运市场的不确定性,介绍远期运费协议(FFA)的含义及其在国际干散货航运市场中的发展情况,探讨FFA风险管理的作用,最后,面对航运市场较大的波动性,提出中国船东和租家必须学会利用FFA这一新的工具进行风险管理的建议。     

Intermodal route selection for cargo transportation from Korea to Central Asia by adopting Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy ELECTRE I methods

Due to the increase in trade from Korea to Central Asia, an efficient intermodal route for transporting cargo is important. Intermodal routing for long-distance transportation faces operational challenges, such as customs clearance, track gauge differences, and climate limitations. The initiative of the Silk Road Economic Belt recently proposed in China could improve trade and transport links in Asia and create an efficient transportation route that focuses on the railroad service provided in China. The objective of this study is to obtain an evaluation structure for intermodal routing and then find the route for transporting cargo from Korea to Central Asia under China’s Silk Road Economic Belt with integrated Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy (Elimination Et Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) I methods. After a sensitivity analysis is performed, development strategies and alternative routes are suggested. The results show that among the five principal factors, total cost is the most important factor for logistics companies when they select a transportation route, followed by reliability, transportation capability, total time, and security. Of the sub-factor weights, transportation costs and cooperation and emphasis among state organization are important. In the intermodal route results, route 3, Incheon to Qingdao to Horgos to Almaty, is preferred.     

Cost analysis of bulk cargo containerization

ABSTRACT

Bulk cargo containerization (BCC) involves changes in the transportation mode of container shipping for cargo that uses bulk carriers without packing. This topic has recently attracted considerable attention as an alternative transportation method for container cargo. BCC is advantageous because it can address imbalances in the amount of cargo conveyed between the main and back hauls, thereby improving efficiency. A previous survey among companies involved in cargo shipping revealed that in addition to ocean freight, vanning and devanning, and customs clearance costs, consignees’ decisions were the key factor in selecting transport modes. The present study aims to clarify the cost competitiveness of container shipping and identify cost reductions that may increase the use of BCC. To quantitatively check the results of the survey employed in this study, we constructed a model based on consignees’ and container shipping companies’ costs to determine the choice of transport mode for back-haul trade, then examined the incentives for consignees and shipping companies. We found that BCC can be realized by cost reduction on the part of the consignee and profit improvement on the part of the container shipping company for some routes and goods. Although reducing the freight rate would effectively promote BCC, reducing other costs would not have the same effect.     

特殊货物水上运输安全对策研究

文中针对近年来载运钢材、精选矿粉和内贸集装箱船舶引发的沉船事故或险情,系统分析了特殊货物水上运输安全存在的问题,提出了对特殊货物水上安全运输对策的相关建议。     

长三角港口经济运行情况及2010年形势分析

国际金融危机对长三角地区港口（简称长三角港口）和航运业发展的冲击相当严重,上海国际航运中心建设面临了严峻挑战和考验。两省一市相关港航管理部门和企业积极应对,危中求机,逐步扭转了港航生产持续下滑的态势,率先实现企稳回升,全年长三角港口经济运行总体上好于预期,