Men Shape a Downward Trend in Car Use among Young Adults—Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries

This paper investigates trends in the travel behaviour of young adults in Germany, France, Great Britain, Japan, Norway, and the USA over the past few decades with a focus on car availability and car travel. The trend analysis relies on micro-data from over 20 National Travel Surveys from the study countries dating back to the mid-1970s. The analysis of the survey data is supplemented by official statistics on licence holding. On this basis, this paper compiles a body of evidence for changes in mobility patterns among young adults in industrialized countries over the past few decades. The findings indicate that since the turn of the millennium, access to cars, measured in terms of drivers' licences and household car ownership, has decreased in most study countries—especially for men. Moreover, average daily car travel distance has decreased in most study countries, again especially for men. In France, Japan, and most significantly in the USA, the decrease in car travel has led to a reduction in total everyday travel by young travellers. In Great Britain, the decline in car travel was partly, and in Germany fully, compensated by an increased use of alternative modes of transport.     

Powertrain technologies and their impact on greenhouse gas emissions in key car markets

The role alternative car technologies may play in effectively tackling the problem of climate change is still highly uncertain. This paper aims at investigating possible impacts of car powertrain technologies on future energy demand and its corresponding greenhouse gas emissions until 2030. A system dynamics model covering nine car technologies in China, France, Germany, India, Japan and the United States was applied, with a focus on electric cars. Four main scenarios are constructed and sensitivity analysis undertaken. Greenhouse gas emissions from cars in the six countries are simulated to reach up to 2.6 gigatonnes in 2030 (a 13–32% increase between 2020 and 2030, depending on the scenario). The main conclusion from model-based policy analysis is that electric cars may have a positive contribution to emissions mitigation in the passenger road transport system. However, greenhouse gas emissions from cars arising from the combined effect of car manufacturing and scrappage and electricity generation processes are expected to grow more dramatically. As a result, actions that support both low-emission (re-)manufacturing and clean electricity generation are needed. These results complement accurate but static life cycle assessments and open the discussion for dynamic model assumptions.     

The effects of physical activity on greenhouse gas emissions for common transport modes in European countries

This paper applies a life cycle methodology to estimate activity-related contributions of transport modes to GHG emissions. The methodology uses national input–output tables, environmental accounts, household budget data and nutritional data to derive food-sector GHG coefficients of consumption for ten European countries. The food energy requirements for each mode of transport are estimated taking account of the modal activity level and energy requirements. Typical national food energy-related emissions for walking, cycling, and driving ranged from 25.6 to 77.3 gCO₂-eq/pass.km, 10.4–31.4 gCO₂-eq/pass.km and 1.7–5.2 gCO₂-eq/pass.km; passenger transport was found to result in no food-related emissions above those for a resting individual. Emissions vary between countries depending on the emissions intensities of their energy sectors as well as food prices and average body weights. A life cycle assessment of modal emissions in the UK is undertaken using the food-energy emissions intensities estimated and car travel was found to have the highest emissions intensity, followed by bus, cycling and walking.     

Carbon emission from urban passenger transportation in Beijing

Urban passenger transport significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions, especially in developing countries owing to the rapid motorization, thus making it an important target for carbon reduction. This article established a method to estimate and analyze carbon emission from urban passenger transport including cars, rail transit, taxis and buses. The scope of research was defined based on car registration area, transport types and modes, the stages of rail transit energy consumption. The data availability and gathering were fully illustrated. A city level emission model for the aforementioned four modes of passenger transport was formulated, and parameters including emission factor of electricity and fuel efficiency were tailored according to local situations such as energy structure and field survey. The results reveal that the emission from Beijing’s urban passenger transport in 2012 stood at 15 million tonnes of CO₂, of which 75.5% was from cars, whereas car trip sharing constitutes only 42.5% of the total residential trips. Bus travel, yielding 28.6 g CO₂, is the most efficient mode of transport under the current situations in terms of per passenger kilometer (PKM) emission, whereas car or taxi trips emit more than 5 times that of bus trips. Although a decrease trend appears, Beijing still has potential for further carbon reduction in passenger transport field in contrast to other cities in developed countries. Development of rail transit and further limitation on cars could assist in reducing 4.39 million tonnes CO₂ emission.     

The bicycle as a feedering mode: experiences from three European countries

Bike-and-ride, or the combined use of bicycle and public transport for one trip, is a multimodal alternative for the car. This paper discusses the use of bike-and-ride in three countries with widely differing bicycle cultures and infrastructures: the Netherlands, Germany and the UK. The share of the bicycle in access trips is comparable to general levels of bicycle ridership in each country, but only for train services and other fast modes of public transport. Strong similarities are found in the characteristics of bike-and-ride trips and users, in terms of travel distances, travel motives, and the impact of car availability. The majority of bike-and-ride users travels between 2 and 5 km to a public transport stop, with longer access distances reported for faster modes of public transport. Work and education are the main travel motives, with the first dominating the faster modes and the second the slower modes of public transport. Car availability hardly influences the choice for a combined use of bicycle and train, but strongly affects the levels of bike-and-ride for slower modes of transport.     

High-Speed Rail Operations on an Existing Network: An Assessment Model for China

High-speed rail operations have the potential to reduce the long-term decline in rail passenger travel demand for the medium to long distance inter-urban markets. Such decline has been evident through most of the industrialized countries where air and road transport tend to be the dominant modes. In China, the operations of long distance high-speed rail on fully dedicated track is not very easy to implement, due to the high proportion of passengers who travel between high-speed and conventional railways. An alternative approach would be to allow for mixed operations with trains of various speeds on the same track. This article puts forward a simulation model designed to allow an evaluation of the most efficient distance for high-speed rail operations under mixed train speed scenarios. The model takes into account the main operating parameters such as passenger volumes, train speeds, capital and maintenance costs, train operating costs and energy consumption. The distance of high-speed train running on conventional rail that will yield the most economic benefit can be estimated using the model. The article includes the results of using the model for a specific example. It is concluded that large-scale high-speed trains have the potential to be successfully operated on conventional rail networks.     

Should subsidies to urban passenger transport be increased? A spatial CGE analysis for a German metropolitan area

In many countries passenger transport is significantly subsidized in a variety of ways for various reasons. The objective of this paper is to examine efficiency, distributional, environmental (CO₂ emissions) and spatial effects of increasing different kinds of passenger transport subsidies discriminating between household types, travel purposes and travel modes. The effects are calculated by applying a numerical spatial general equilibrium approach calibrated to an average German metropolitan area. In extension to most studies focusing on only one kind of subsidy, we compare the effects of different transport subsidies within the same unified framework that allows to account for two features not yet considered simultaneously in studies on transport subsidies: endogenous labor supply and location decisions. Furthermore, congestion, travel mode choice, travel related CO₂ emissions and institutional details regarding the tax system in Germany are taken into account. The results suggest that optimal subsidy levels are either small or even zero. While subsidizing public transport is welfare enhancing, subsidies to urban road traffic reduce aggregate urban welfare. Concerning the latter it is shown that making investments in urban road infrastructure capacity or reducing gasoline taxes may even be harmful to residents using predominantly automobile. In contrast, pure commuting subsidies hardly affect aggregate urban welfare, but distributional effects are substantial. All policies cause suburbanization of city residents and (except for subsidizing public transport) contribute to urban sprawl by raising the spatial imbalance of residences and jobs but the effect is relatively small. In addition, the policies induce a very differentiated pattern regarding distributional effects, benefits of landowners and environmental effects.     

The future mobility of the world population

On average a person spends 1.1 h per day traveling and devotes a predictable fraction of income to travel. We show that these time and money budgets are stable over space and time and can be used for projecting future levels of mobility and transport mode. The fixed travel money budget requires that mobility rises nearly in proportion with income. Covering greater distances within the same fixed travel time budget requires that travelers shift to faster modes of transport. The choice of future transport modes is also constrained by path dependence because transport infrastructures change only slowly. In addition, demand for low-speed public transport is partially determined by urban population densities and land-use characteristics. We present a model that incorporates these constraints, which we use for projecting traffic volume and the share of the major motorized modes of transport—automobiles, buses, trains and high speed transport (mainly aircraft)—for 11 regions and the world through 2050. We project that by 2050 the average world citizen will travel as many kilometers as the average West European in 1990. The average American's mobility will rise by a factor of 2.6 by 2050, to 58,000 km/year. The average Indian travels 6000 km/year by 2050, comparable with West European levels in the early 1970s. Today, world citizens move 23 billion km in total; by 2050 that figure grows to 105 billion.     

Improvement of the volume-delay function by incorporating the impact of trucks on traffic flow

In current transportation modelling, travel time is the most important factor in decisions regarding transport modes, destinations and routes. The calculation of travel time is deployed by volume-delay functions (VDFs), a sub-model of route assignment procedure, using the correlation between increasing numbers of vehicles on a road and the road's restrictive capacity. By investigating existing VDFs, a clear gap is seen, demonstrating that current functions are not suited to reflect the empirically known large impact of trucks on passenger car travel times. This issue becomes crucial when transport models are used to reflect future scenarios where goods transportation is expected to increase greatly, and when transport models combine passenger and commercial traffic. This paper presents a new VDF which successfully includes trucks’ impact on traffic flow in the case of Germany and, with slight deviations, for North America. The function is developed using ideal-type data for German motorways. The differences between German and US data and their implications for VDFs are also discussed.     

Environmental impacts of transformative land use and transport developments in the Greater Beijing Region: Insights from a new dynamic spatial equilibrium model

This paper reports the insights into environmental impacts of the ongoing transformative land use and transport developments in Greater Beijing, from a new suite of dynamic land use, spatial equilibrium and strategic transport models that is calibrated for medium to long term land use and transport predictions. The model tests are focused on urban passenger travel demand and associated emissions within the municipality of Beijing, accounting for Beijing’s land use and transport interactions with Tianjin, Hebei and beyond. The findings suggests that background trends of urbanization, economic growth and income rises will continue to be very powerful drivers for urban passenger travel demand across all main modes of transport beyond 2030. In order to achieve the dual policy aims for a moderately affluent and equitable nation and reducing the absolute levels of urban transport emissions by 2030, road charging and careful micro-level coordination between land use, built form and public transport provision may need to be considered together for policy implementation in the near future.     

Quantitative analysis of passenger and baggage security screening at airports

The terrorist attacks in the United States in 2001 opened a new era in air transportation. The realization that civil aircraft can be used as powerful weapons of mass destruction by a small group of people has drastically increased the need for security screening procedures to protect civil flights. Serving as the interface between the air and land transportation modes, airports have become the main focus in the implementation of those procedures. The need to more thoroughly screen passengers and baggage, and the consequent increase in processing time, has created the need for more space for security checkpoints and baggage screening inside passenger terminal buildings—space that is costly and very difficult to find in existing buildings. This paper evaluates the impact those measures have had on the planning and operation of airport passenger terminals. Quantification of those impacts is performed with the use of discrete‐event simulation and spreadsheet models.     

Exploring transport carbon futures using population microsimulation and travel diaries: Beijing to 2030

Evaluating transport policy for cities in developing countries is often constrained by data availability that limits the use of conventional appraisal models. Here, we present a new ‘bottom-up’ methodology to estimate transport CO₂ emission from daily urban passenger travel for Beijing, a megacity with relatively sparse data on travel behaviour. A spatial microsimulation, based on an activity diary survey and two sample population censuses, is used to simulate, for Beijing’s urban districts, a realistic synthetic population, and their daily travel and CO₂ emission over 2000–2010. This approach provides greater insight into the spatial variability of transport CO₂ emission than has previously been possible for Beijing, and further, enables an examination of the role of socio-demographics, urban form and transport developments in contributing to emissions over the modelled period.Using the 2000–2010 CO₂ emission estimates as a baseline, CO₂ emissions from passenger travel are then modelled to 2030 under scenarios exploring politically plausible strategies on transport (public transport infrastructure investment, and vehicle constraint), urban development (compaction) and vehicle technology (faster adoption of clean vehicle technology). The results showed that, compared to the trend scenario, employing both transport and urban development policies could reduce total passenger CO₂ emission to 2030 by 24%, and by 43% if all strategies were applied together. The study reveals the potential of microsimulation in emission estimation for large cities in developing countries where data availability may constrain more traditional approaches.     

Co-benefits of low carbon passenger transport actions in Indian cities: Case study of Ahmedabad

Rising population, income and urbanization are increasing urban passenger transport demand in India. Energy and emissions intensities associated with conventional transport are no longer sustainable vis-a-vis energy security, air quality and climate change. Cities are seeking transport roadmaps that jointly mitigate these risks. Roadmaps vary across cities, but approach to delineate actions is common: (i) ‘representative vision’ that articulates long-term goals, (ii) methods for comparative scenarios assessment, and (iii) quantification of co-benefits to prioritize actions. This paper illustrates application of quantitative modeling to assess development and environmental co-benefits for Ahmedabad city. The paper constructs two transport scenarios spanning till 2035. The bifurcating themes are: (i) Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Low Carbon Scenario (LCS). The quantitative assessment using Extended Snapshot (ExSS) Model shows that transport activity shall result in four-fold increase in energy demand under BAU from 2010 to 2035. Three key contributors to CO₂ mitigation under LCS in merit order are: (i) fuel switch, including decarbonized electricity, (ii) modal shift, and (iii) substitution of travel demand. Scenarios analysis shows that LCS improves energy security by reducing oil demand and also delivers air quality co-benefits – reducing 74% NOx and 83% PM_2.5 from the passenger transport sector compared to BAU in 2035. Finally, the paper argues that cities in developing countries can leverage carbon finance to develop sustainable and low carbon mobility plans that prevent adverse infrastructure and behavioral lock-ins and prompt low carbon development.     

Is rail cleaner and greener than bus?

The popular consensus is that urban passenger rail is more environmentally friendly than urban passenger bus. This position is largely associated with the key energy source for each mode, respectively electricity and diesel, where electric vehicle use will typically result in local air quality improvements away from the electricity generation source. Surveys of community perceptions reflect this sentiment; however the relationship between the source of energy and its resultant emissions is not something that citizens fully understand. There is a general lack of awareness of the resource base of much of electricity generation in some countries. Where generation sources are suitably renewable or low-carbon, electricity use will offer greenhouse gas abatement potential. However, in countries which still rely heavily on coal-fired power stations, such as Australia, abatement is not as assured and estimating emission outcomes can require careful assessment. Supporters of alternatives to diesel use can focus on the future supply of fossil-fuels, an argument which has merit; however such arguments are often confounded with environmental qualities related to local air pollution and enhanced greenhouse gas emissions. This paper takes a close look at the greenhouse emissions that are associated with urban rail and bus in Australia. Estimated intensities, when presented in the context of effective service delivery (primarily in terms of emissions per passenger kilometre), raise questions about the distortions that are present in the widespread promotion in Australia (at least) of rail as a more environmentally friendly and hence a sustainable mode of urban passenger transport than bus.     

Modeling the relationships among urban passenger travel carbon dioxide emissions,transportation demand and supply,population density,and proxy policy variables

To support the development of policies that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by encouraging reduced travel and increased use of efficient transportation modes, it is necessary to better understand the explanatory effects that transportation, population density, and policy variables have on passenger travel related CO₂ emissions. This study presents the development of a model of CO₂ emissions per capita as a function of various explanatory variables using data on 146 urbanized areas in the United States. The model takes into account selectivity bias resulting from the fact that adopting policies aimed at reducing emissions in an urbanized area may be partly driven by the presence of environmental concerns in that area. The results indicate that population density, transit share, freeway lane-miles per capita, private vehicle occupancy, and average travel time have a statistically significant explanatory effect on passenger travel related CO₂ emissions. In addition, the presence of automobile emissions inspection programs, which serves as a proxy indicator of other policies addressing environmental concerns and which could influence travelers in making environmentally favorable travel choices, markedly changes the manner in which transportation variables explain CO₂ emission levels.     

Development and Impact of the Modern High‐speed Train: A Review

Abstract

The inauguration of the Shinkansen high‐speed train service between Tokyo and Osaka, Japan, at 210 kph maximum operating speed some 40 years ago marked the comeback of the train as an important passenger mode of transport. Since then high‐speed train (HST) services have been introduced in many countries and are planned in many more, and the train has once more become the dominant mode of transport on many routes. This review summarizes the different elements of HST operation with the aim of characterizing HST operation and putting in context its impact in terms of what it is best designed for and what it can deliver. The review concludes that the HST is best designed to substitute conventional railway services on routes where much higher capacity is required and to reduce travel time, further improving the railway service, also against other modes, therefore leading to mode substitution. However, the high investment in HST infrastructure could not be justified based on its economic development benefits since these are not certain. Finally, the following definition for HST services is suggested: high capacity and frequency railway services achieving an average speed of over 200 kph.     

Energy use reduction potential of passenger transport in Europe

To contribute to a sustainable society, considerable reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions should be achieved. This paper presents the results of calculations exploring the energy use reduction potential of passenger transport for Western Europe (OECD Europe minus Turkey). For these calculations, three types of options are defined emphasizing technological, infrastructural and behavioural change. By 2050, technological improvements may reduce energy use per passenger-km by - 30%. Adding infrastructural options, an energy reduction of > 50% by 2050 can be realised. To achieve further energy reductions, options with a large behavioural impact should also be implemented. This results in an 80% energy reduction potential in the transport sector by 2050. To calculate the reduction potential on OECD Europe level, one should factor in expectations concerning mobility growth. Two mobility development scenarios are used. Both scenarios foresee a net decrease in total energy use of 20% with the introduction of the technological and infrastructural improvement options. Adding options emphasizing behavioural change results in a net reduction potential of - 60% by 2050.     

Behavioral monitoring of public transport users through a mobile communication system

There are various activities now taking place in ITS research and development in Japan. Advanced information and communication technologies have been applied to improve public transport systems, as well as automated highway systems. In the first part of this paper, we show three examples of public transport systems recently developed in ITS environment. These transport systems are operated in local cities and towns in Japan: the travel information system for tram users in Hiroshima, the demand responsive bus system in Nakamura and the co‐operative use of electric vehicle in Ebina. In the second part of the paper, we explain how we have monitored individual passenger on public transport using cellular phones for location positioning. Location positioning technology for mobile object is essential for the operation and management of ITS supported public transport systems. Furthermore, such accurate and detailed positioning data can be utilized for travel behaviour analysis in demand modeling. The mobile instrument and monitoring systems shown in this paper can be combined with any of the case studies of ITS application to public transport systems.     

The Incorporation of Passenger Connectivity and Intermodal Considerations in Intercity Transport Planning

Congested road and air networks, coupled with the idea that transport systems should be balanced, have spawned the field of intercity intermodal passenger transport which is based on travel across connected networks that is as seamless as possible. There is a very large number of attributes that affect the objective and subjective quality of travel. Intercity public transport planning therefore requires an excellent understanding of connections between different services and how the quality of these connections affects passengers, operators and the society at large. This article reviews the vast literature over the last 20 years from Europe, North America and Asia that is related to intercity travel, the connectivity of transport and cooperation between different modes of transport and presents a simple yet powerful way to perceive connected transport systems. The article then reviews planning practice at a variety of states worldwide, and suggests a set of focus areas of research or gaps that once filled, the authors expect, will allow further development of connected intercity passenger travel.     

Travel plans for new developments: a global review

A travel plan is a mechanism for delivering a package of transport measures at a site to manage car use and encourage the use of more sustainable forms of transport. In recent years, travel plans have been required for new infill and greenfield developments through the land-use planning and approvals process, predominantly in the United Kingdom, the United States, continental Europe and Australia. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a global review of travel plans for new developments. The results show that while travel plans for new developments share a common set of elements with those for pre-existing sites, differences within each element are notable, particularly in the types of travel plan measures adopted, processes for managing the travel plan, and approaches to monitoring and review. Results of previous evaluations have varied considerably, although most have reported a reduction in car driver trips of 10–20 percentage points. Despite this, most evaluations lack rigour, with a paucity of robust evidence. Key success factors identified by the literature, such as the provision of an explicit policy supporting the role of travel plans, should be embedded within the travel planning process where possible to ensure best outcomes for new developments.