基于VAR模型的混合动力VLCC船舶营运数据分析

大型VLCC风帆-主机混合技术将是绿色船舶和航运时代的重大里程碑和技术创新。混合动力VLCC船型的技术经济可行性分析是开发该技术和船型工作中的一个重要环节。本文通过构建有关VLCC船舶关键营运数据的分析谱系和向量自回归模型(VAR)分析了目标混合动力船型的船价、运费、燃油价格等关键经济变量相互动态影响路径和机制。研究发现,从中、长期而言,燃油价格是影响新造船价格变化的第二大重要经济变量。这不仅反映了对于节能减排型船舶的内在市场需求,也体现了开发和推广混合动力船型的重大商业意义。     

Modelling the investment decision of the entrepreneur in the tanker sector: choosing between a second-hand vessel and a newly built one

It is often the case that the investor in the shipping sector faces the dilemma of investing in a second-hand vessel or building a new one. This happens because an active second-hand market for almost all kinds of vessels exists. We argue that one of the prime considerations for the investment decision should not be the price of the vessel per se, second-hand (SH) or newly built (NP) but

• ?(a)?the relative price ratio (SH/NP) second-hand price over the new building price and

• ?(b)?the movement of this ratio.

We investigate the determinants of this ratio across different vessel sizes in the tanker sector and show that it can be used as an effective tool in investment decision as well as in asset appraisal.

We employ monthly data between 1995 and 2006 for four different ship sizes–VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax and Handysize–and implement an error correction model.

The investment decision depends on a number of risk and return variables as well as the perceived speed of adjustment of the price ratio to its equilibrium level.

Overall we claim that the cyclicality of the shipping sector together with expectations formed by the agents operating in it (the entrepreneur, the ship-owner and the broker), determine the movement of the ratio and hence the decision of the entrepreneur.     

Short-term liner shipping bunker procurement with swap contracts

The bunker price fluctuations in recent years have severely threatened the stability of liner shipping companies’ operations. As an efficient countermeasure, the swap contract is widely adopted throughout the liner shipping industry to hedge the procurement risk resulting from the bunker price fluctuation. This paper looks at the short-term liner shipping bunker procurement problem with swap contracts (BPPSC), aiming to optimally plan the amount of bunker purchased from the spot market and the amount hedged by the swap contract for several months ahead. This BPPSC is first formulated as a bunker procurement cost mean-variance minimization (MVM) model, and is subsequently solved using a tangible two-step approach developed in this study. In the first step, the movements of the swap contract price and the spot market price of the bunker are described using a calibrated multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (mGARCH) time series model. In the second step, the MVM model is approximated and solved by a price scenario tree constructed from the mGARCH time series model. A numerical example shows that the risk hedging strategy obtained can simultaneously control the bunker procurement cost as well as the procurement risk from price fluctuations. This article is a revised and expanded version of the abridged eight-page paper entitled ‘Optimal hedging for liner bunker procurement’ presented at ‘2015 International Conference on Logistics and Maritime Systems (LOGMS 2015)’, Hong Kong, 27–29 August 2015.     

Slow steaming of liner trade: its economic and environmental impacts

From 2000s, there have been three forces provoking slow steaming practice in the liner industry: (1) oversupply of shipping capacity, (2) increase of bunker price and (3) environmental pressure. This paper analyses the background and the recent application of slow steaming in liner shipping. The research looks into the questions of how slow steaming can save bunker consumption and bring benefits to the environment. On the other hand, solutions are also examined to the adverse side of slow steaming practice, i.e., how it affects the container transit time. For which, a cost model is developed to demonstrate the impact of slow steaming on the revenue change, with application to the North Europe—Far East Trade as a case study. The final result shows that the optimal speed for the shipowner is correlated with the designed speed, bunker price and the price of CO₂. With the increase of the bunker price and the price of CO_2, the optimal speed will also increase, which means that slow steaming practice has a positive impact on the environmental protection.     

S形弯曲河段低水头闸坝枢纽口门区通航水流条件研究*

以老口枢纽为例,分析S形弯曲河段上低水头闸坝枢纽引航道上、下游口门区水流特点,通过整体物理模型试验及自航船模验证试验,提出改善水流条件的具体措施。研究结果表明：通过修改上下引航道隔墙形式、局部地形开挖、岸坡回填、增设潜丁坝,以及调整凸岸岸线等措施,调整了引航道中心线位置并缩小引航道中心线与河道主流流向交角,减弱及消除了上下游引航道及口门区存在的回流、挑流及隔墙堤头的绕流等不利流态,有效改善了老口枢纽的通航水流条件,为S形弯曲河段低水头闸坝枢纽设计提供参考。     

Public preference for the attributes of the marina port in Korea: a choice experiment study

As of late, the Korean government needs quantitative information on economic feasibility analysis for marina port development projects. This study applies a choice experiment to measure public preference for the attributes of marina port in Korea. We consider the trade-offs between price and four attributes of marina port (capacity, access, waterfront, and program) for selecting a preferred alternative and elicit the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) estimates for each attribute. We also test whether irrelevant alternatives property for the estimation model holds and compare the estimation results of the multinomial logit (MNL) and the nested logit (NL) models. The results show that the NL model outperforms the MNL model. In the NL model, MWTPs for increasing the level of a waterfront from promenade to both promenade and rest area and for the provision of marine leisure experience program are KRW13 384 (USD11.8) and KRW17 937 (USD15.8), respectively. This study is expected to provide policymakers with quantitative information for evaluating marina port construction projects in Korea.     

Development of early warning index in Korean shipping industry by using signal approach

ABSTRACT

The study aims to investigate and prevent shipping companies’ insolvency that can be derived from depressed market sentiment in the shipping industry. For this purpose, the paper focuses on developing an early warning index. The main factors that contribute to the change in the shipping industry are derived. Sixty independent variables were accounted in the development of early warning index, some of which are shipping, shipbuilding, and finance. Suggestions drew from the result of early warning index are described as below. Firstly, the results of a signal approach towards independent variables showed lowest the signal error value in newbuilding price of containership, bunker price, Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) commodity index, and order book of bulkship. These indicators have proven to be a high level of variation factor during shipping markets’ crisis. Secondly, the early warning index confirmed that it preceded by 6 months compared to probability of default. Thirdly, in order to validate the accuracy of the early warning index, the adequacy of the model was tested using a mean square error and time lag correlations. As a result of the verification, value proved to be at a high level of compliance at 0.097.     

A land‐use planning model for coastal zone management

Abstract

In this article we consider a linear programming model for assessing the aggregate impact of land‐use activities scattered over a large area on the resultant pollutant concentrations in coastal waters. The dispersion to coastal waters of the adverse environmental loads generated by the land uses is described by a set of transport coefficients that measure the attenuation of pollutants, such as industrial BOD, carried to the coast along surface drainage basins. Further dispersion in the waters caused by tidal action is then described by the simple procedure know as “pollution susceptibility.”; The model seeks to minimize the steady‐state concentrations of pollutants by establishing an optimal spatial configuration of residential, commercial, and industrial land uses. This configuration is constrained by a number of restrictions based on local and regional targets for growth and development. The methodology discussed in this article is intended to be useful to regional planners, and is based on a study conducted for the Long Island area.     

Trading strategies in the market for tankers

This paper introduces a new approach in timing the sale and purchase of ships in the tanker market and examines the performance of this trading strategy over the period January 1976 to September 2004. Based on the long-run cointegration relationship between earnings and price, we establish a trading model which can be used as an indicator of investment or divestment timing decisions. We also perform statistical tests using the bootstrap approach in order to discount the possibility of data snooping biases and test the robustness of our trading models. Our results indicate that trading strategies based on earning-price ratios significantly out-perform buy and hold strategies in the tanker market.     

Return lead–lag and volatility transmission in shipping freight markets

This study investigates the return lead–lag and volatility transmission between dry bulk shipping and container shipping freight markets over the period before, during and after the 2008 financial tsunami. Both cointegration analysis and the Granger causality test are applied to explore the lead–lag relationship between the Baltic dry index (BDI) and the China containerized freight index (CCFI). Besides, in the study we employed GARCH–BEKK model, which allows for transmission in freight volatility. On the whole, the empirical results show that the BDI reflects the economic climate earlier than the CCFI during the financial tsunami, whereas the CCFI leads the BDI after the financial tsunami. The price formation hypothesis could well explain the relationship. Moreover, volatility spillovers are found in most subperiods. The dynamics of the conditional volatilities differ, but causality links in the variance are found to be strong and bidirectional in normal periods, and unidirectional during the financial tsunami. Therefore, the occurrence of the financial tsunami could be regarded as an interference factor.     

Demand analysis in Angola seaports

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a demand analysis of Angola seaports from 1996 to 2013 using the Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (BLP) demand model. The BLP is a random coefficient Logit demand model that takes into account the endogeneity of the price in the demand equation. The model reveals that seaports on Angola is explained by the average price, the price of maritime transport services, the price of substitute imports by airports, and by the income in the port region. The price is endogenous in demand equation and the endogeneity is taken into account in demand estimation. The price of air transportation is negative, and therefore it is a complementary good. The price of container handling is positive, and therefore it is a substitution good. Policy implication is also derived.     

Use of the analytic hierarchy process to evaluate transit fare system

The transportation fare system influences the mobility of a region and the life quality of its inhabitants. This study aims to evaluate a region's optimal fare system by using the analytic hierarchy process, based on a survey among transportation experts, divided into three categories: operators, professors/consultants and government officials. The results are presented divided by category and overall, and the performance of the most important relative criteria to establish a fare system is determined. The most important criterion according to all the selected experts was the fare price, with 21.5%. The fare system determined as the best was distance/zone (31.1%) and the worst was a flat fare system (7.2%). In addition, we show the influence of the fare price criterion in each fare system through sensitivity charts and highlight its importance for all three groups of experts to evaluate the fare system.     

基于系统仿真的港池宽度对港口服务水平的影响

沿海港区规模化及船舶大型化趋势对港口服务水平提出了更高要求,水域尺度是影响港口服务水平的重要因素之一。在分析不同港池宽度的沿海港区船舶进出港作业流程的基础上,利用Anylogic仿真平台构建船舶进出港作业系统仿真模型,研究港池宽度对港口服务水平的影响。仿真模拟宽、窄、中3种港池宽度下的船舶进出港作业系统的结果表明:较窄港池、中港池水域面积增加25%,可提升港口服务水平达36%;宽港池水域面积增加48%,港口服务水平可提升90%。     

An approach for Baltic Dry Index analysis based on empirical mode decomposition

The bulk shipping market is seasonal, cyclical and highly volatile. Due to the nonstationary and nonlinear nature of price series and the complexity of influencing factors, it is difficult to analyse the fluctuations in the bulk shipping market. In this study, a method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is proposed to investigate the volatility of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). In this method, the original freight price series is decomposed into several independent intrinsic modes, using EMD first. Then, the intrinsic modes are composed into three components: short-term fluctuations caused by normal market activities, the effect of extreme events and a long-term trend. Numerical experiments indicate that the proposed method can effectively reveal the characteristics of bulk freight price series with different economic meanings and decrease error accumulation. Meanwhile, by decomposition of intrinsic modes, the complexity of the model formulation can be controlled and the operability of the model can be improved.     

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures

ABSTRACT

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures links costs to system performance by combining a power-law function with time-dependent queueing analysis. Additionally, the model incorporates the marginal cost of capacity, including the effects of economies of scale. This allows the calculation of the marginal cost price under a dynamic framework. The model accounts for nonlinear behaviour of port demand, which is sensitive to price and service levels. The effects over time of cost and service levels on the port’s operational performance are quantified. The proposed model allows determining the optimal timing for capacity investment. The model is a starting point for the application of marginal cost pricing to ports. However, for practical application of such pricing method it is necessary to apply a system’s approach, as productivity and costs must be assessed at the terminal’s component level. This should allow the derivation of a marginal cost function at the terminal’s component level.     

Development of ship sinking frequency model over Subsea Pipeline for Madura Strait using AIS data

It is important to study the risk posed by heavy shipping traffic to a subsea pipeline located near an industrial port area. In this context, it is essential to estimate the accident frequency in an attempt to eliminate subjectivity in the analysis process. This study proposes a model for estimating the ship sinking frequency over the subsea pipeline in the Madura Strait area. The Madura Strait is one of the busiest shipping lanes in Indonesia. Many ships pass through the fairway in the strait, and many industrial ports have been built in this area. The proposed model is developed based on Fujii’s Model, and it uses Automatic Identification System (AIS) data as a ship traffic survey. Ship sinking accidents are considered based on ship–ship collisions over the critical subsea pipeline area. The ship–ship collision locations around the subsea pipeline and the ship traffic distribution models are estimated using AIS data. The causation probability Pc is determined based on a synthetics approach using a Bayesian network modified from Det Norske Veritas’ and Hänninen’s models. The causation probability is estimated by considering factors such as human performance, weather, technical problems, and support. The proposed model is validated by comparing its result with actual accident records for the Madura Strait area. The ratio value of 0.33 is considered to be reasonably agreement (ratio value ≥0.2).     

最优截面法在工程设计中的应用

介绍一种构件截面尺寸的确定方法——最优截面法。通过最优截面法,可以依据钢筋及混凝土的现行价格对截面尺寸进行计算,计算出最优构件截面尺寸和配筋面积组合,达到节约工程造价的目的。     

Numerical modelling of fish eggs dispersion at the Patos Lagoon estuary — Brazil

The Patos Lagoon estuary is the most important nursery ground for commercially relevant species of fish and crustaceans in the South of Brazil, maintaining fisheries that sustain 3500 fisher families throughout the Rio Grande do Sul State coastline. Around 80% of the interior estuarine area is very shallow (< 2 m), and recruitment of fish eggs and larvae to the inner parts of the Patos Lagoon estuary is directly related to the circulation pattern in the area, which is controlled by local and non-local wind effects and freshwater discharge. The objective of this study is to investigate the processes controlling the transport of estuarine dependent fish eggs between the Atlantic Ocean and the Patos Lagoon estuary.An integrated numerical system based on a bi-dimensional hydrodynamic model and a Lagrangean transport model of passive particles is applied to a selection of scenarios representing the passage of weather fronts over the area. At this stage, fish eggs are represented as buoyant passive particles. Modelling results are compared against field data for the period under investigation (September/October 1999) and historical records. Short term results are analysed in terms of the meteorological conditions (wind direction, intensity and duration) controlling the transport of eggs to the inner parts of the estuary and the extension of their excursion. This experiment is the first attempt to couple biological and physical information to study fish eggs transport, and to enhance the current knowledge about recruitment of important fisheries resources in southern Brazil.     

潜堤掩护水域波浪计算方法

采用波浪断面物理模型试验和数学模型耦合的方法,研究了抛石潜堤后方掩护水域的波浪计算方法。潜堤后方掩护水域波高由潜堤越浪后的再生波、潜堤间口门绕射波和小风区浪组成,其主要影响因素有潜堤结构形式、入射波浪要素、风区长度等。采用耦合模型,根据物理模型试验的结果,验证数模计算成果,考虑了越浪波高传递的沿程衰减,波浪相互作用时的能量损耗等因素,通过调整波浪破碎指标和波浪能量耗散参数,直接计算堤前设计波浪要素,计算结果更符合实际,为工程设计提供科学依据。     

Revisiting port pricing; a proposal for seven port pricing principles

A review of seven large landlord port authorities around the world reveals a notable diversity of pricing structures. While port authorities increasingly act as commercial undertakings, port pricing often seems to be not driven by commercial considerations. In this paper, we argue that ports can be regarded as “business ecosystems” with multiple users. This provides a valuable perspective on pricing and raises the question of whether ports can be regarded as two-sided markets. We argue this is not the case. The business ecosystem perspective provides a basis for deducing seven pricing principles for port authorities that are detailed in the paper and illustrated with cases these principles. These pricing principles are broadly follow a direct user pays approach; capture value from “non-core” tenants; price aggressively for activities with a high strategic value; differentiate pricing based on price elasticity and connectivity improvements; maximize revenue from long-term lease agreements, price port dues competitively; critically consider differentiation of charges based on environmental performance; and finally use incentives to align interests of terminal operators and shipping lines. We conclude that the ecosystem perspective is central to the understanding of pricing decisions of port authorities and that various pricing issues deserve more attention.