台湾海峡海损事故的灰色关联矩阵分析

通过采用灰色系统理论中的关联分析原理，建立海事种类与导致海事原因、船舶尺度大小、海事发生地理位置及海事发生时间的灰色关联矩阵，并运用台湾海峡船舶海损事故统计资料，对台湾海峡发生海事的特点及规律进行分析，为改善台湾海峡的海上交通安全状况提供有益的参考。     

集对分析法在长江干线水上交通安全上的应用

分析长江干线水上交通安全的风险因素,结合长江干线水上交通安全事故特点,建立人-船-环-管系统安全评价指标体系,共计21项指标。应用层次分析法确定指标权重,应用集对分析法（set-pair-analysis,SPA）确定评价标准级并构建长江干线水上交通安全评价模型,进行长江干线水上交通安全状况评价。评价结果可判断现状的危险度并能预测安全状况的发展趋势,为水上交通安全管理决策提供参考。     

基于多层模糊综合评价的内河交通安全研究

本文运用压力状态响应模型对内河交通风险影响因素进行识别,建立了内河交通风险评价指标体系。运用DEMATEL模型法,建立了内河风险评价指标权重模型。并建立了基于多层级模糊综合评判的内河交通安全评价模型,并以松花江为例进行验证了该模型的有效性与可操作性。     

基于PSR模型和因子分析的水上交通安全状况评价指标构建

为评价水上交通安全状况,在现有水上交通安全状况评价指标的基础上,提出优化后的水上交通安全状况评价指标。引入应用于环境质量评价领域的压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型的思想,将影响水上交通安全状况的因素、水上交通安全状况分别对应压力、状态,将压力指标和状态指标分别作为安全状况评价相对指标的分母和分子。应用因子分析对众多水上事故状况类指标进行筛选,筛选出因子载荷大的指标,构建碰撞事故率、其他事故率、死亡失踪率、直接经济损失率四项相对指标,可应用于水上交通安全状况评价。     

水上交通安全评价相对指标体系的构建

为更为科学合理地评价水上交通安全形势,分析我国目前评价水上交通安全形势的绝对指标,比较国内外交通安全领域评价指标,提出水上交通安全评价相对指标体系的构建原则,在绝对指标的基础上结合水路交通繁忙程度、水运经济变化等情况选取相对指标来构建新的水上交通安全形势评价体系。这样的评价体系可更为准确地反映水上交通安全的状况和发展趋势,对于推动我国水上交通安全管理向科学化管理方向发展,使水上交通安全管理适应经济社会发展要求,具有重要的现实意义和长远意义。     

BP神经网络在北京道路安全评价中的应用

通过建立北京城市道路交通安全的分析与评价综合体系,采用BP神经网络法对北京的城市道路交通安全水平进行评价。通过对交通安全的状况、交通安全水平与经济发展关系、机动车保有量、人口及构成等因素的客观判断和预测,提出减少交通事故的合理化建议,并通过应用实例分析,说明该方法具有较强的可行性和可靠性。     

台湾海峡VTS雷达子系统的研究

建设台湾海峡VTS，确保该水域海上交通安全是非常必要和迫切的。本文研究台湾海峡VTS雷达子系统的站址选择及设备选型，分析雷达子系统的检测性能、系统分辨力和定位精度，提出符合台湾海峡VTS总体要求的雷达子系统。     

基于ARERAC评价模型的水上交通安全风险源评估

为有针对性地管控水上交通安全风险源,通过引入事故发生率、环境影响因素和事故后果等3大因素的综合风险评价方法,构建通航环境综合风险评估模型(ARERAC模型),选取相应的风险因子作为评估指标,以芜湖海事局管辖海域为例进行水上交通安全风险源评估。结果表明:运用ARERAC评价模型可以较好地评价芜湖海事局辖区水上交通安全存在的风险源,指导海事部门根据不同的风险源制定针对性的管理措施,提高事前防范风险的能力。     

船舶交通事故量灰色预测应用研究

船舶交通事故量是评价交通安全状况的重要指标,同时也是衡量交通安全管理水平的重要内容.应用灰色系统理论,建立船舶交通事故的灰色预测模型,并将这一模型应用于我国水上船舶交通事故数量的预测,其预测数据可为水上交通安全管理者提供决策参考.     

基于改进综合安全指数的水上交通安全评价

水上交通安全的宏观特征描述一直被海运界关注,而传统的综合安全指数法以确定的数值表示水上交通安全整体水平,无法体现风险的不确定性和随机性。对此,引入仿真方法,提出基于蒙特卡洛仿真的水上交通安全评价方法,建立改进综合安全指数模型,通过风险概率分布的形式表示特定时间或特定空间范围内的水上交通安全状况。实例应用表明:改进综合安全指数法能科学地体现安全水平的实际变化情况,灵敏性高,融合了安全评价中的不确定性和随机性信息。     

Structural change in anglo-continental Ro-Ro traffic, 1977-1987

Elementary and generalized specialization indexes are used to detect structural change and its processes in the Ro-Ro traffic between the United Kingdom and Continental Europe. Powered vehicles dominate British exports through Channel and Straits ports, whereas unaccompanied trailers have the lead for traffic through North Sea ports. A major structural change took place on the continental side, where both forms of traffic came to a new balance in the Belgian ports between 1977 and 1987 in an otherwise stable market share context.     

Impact of special shipping across the Taiwan Straits on the employment of Taiwanese ship officers

Nowhere else in the world are there marine transportations highly confined than across the Taiwan Straits (mainland China and Taiwan). This study strives to explore the present employment status of Taiwanese ship officers under the influence of special shipping across the Taiwan Straits, and to make sure if such an employment trend has a negative impact on the future operating mode of Taiwan shipping companies. By means of field interview and questionnaire, this study collected the employment data of ship officers from 21 leading shipping companies in Taiwan, and made a statistical analysis. The research findings show that the existing cross-strait shipping relationship, which is seriously distorted by the hostility between the governments of Taiwan and mainland China across the Taiwan Straits, has made Taiwanese shipping companies turn to flagging-out in order to enter the extensive shipping market of mainland China. This leads to a decline of job opportunities for Taiwanese ship officers. Ironically, the ship officers from mainland China pose a biggest threat to those in Taiwan in this respect. In addition, the operating modes of Taiwanese shipping companies also change gradually in tune with the increasing number of non-Taiwanese ship officers (mainly those from mainland China).     

Impact of special shipping across the Taiwan Straits on the employment of Taiwanese ship officers

Nowhere else in the world are there marine transportations highly confined than across the Taiwan Straits (mainland China and Taiwan). This study strives to explore the present employment status of Taiwanese ship officers under the influence of special shipping across the Taiwan Straits, and to make sure if such an employment trend has a negative impact on the future operating mode of Taiwan shipping companies. By means of field interview and questionnaire, this study collected the employment data of ship officers from 21 leading shipping companies in Taiwan, and made a statistical analysis. The research findings show that the existing cross-strait shipping relationship, which is seriously distorted by the hostility between the governments of Taiwan and mainland China across the Taiwan Straits, has made Taiwanese shipping companies turn to flagging-out in order to enter the extensive shipping market of mainland China. This leads to a decline of job opportunities for Taiwanese ship officers. Ironically, the ship officers from mainland China pose a biggest threat to those in Taiwan in this respect. In addition, the operating modes of Taiwanese shipping companies also change gradually in tune with the increasing number of non-Taiwanese ship officers (mainly those from mainland China).     

关于2000年沿海客运发展的研究

本文首先指出我国旅客运输系统结构的变化趋势和沿海客运系统内部的变化趋势,并把岛屿和陆岛客运作为整个沿海客运的一个子系统来考虑。通过对客运量生成和运输方式选择的分析,建立了沿海客运系统客运量发展模型,提出客运量主要决定于人均社会总产值、区域人口数和系统的综合服务水平,并预测了我国2000年沿海客运系统客运量和周转量。据此对发展沿海客运系统的资金作了估算。同时,论述了车/客渡船将是未来我国客船的发展方向,并初步研究了海峡两岸直接通航后两岸客运的发展规模和我国沿海旅游业的发展前景。     

两岸“三通”后福建港口对台发展形势的SWOT分析及对策研究

福建省地处东南沿海，与我国台湾隔海相望，港口资源丰富。两岸实现“大三通”以后，福建港口对台发展既面临着机遇，也遭受着挑战。运用SWOT分析方法对福建港口对台发展进行了分析，并在此基础上提出了相应的对策，旨在为福建省加快海峡西岸港口群建设、提升港口竞争力提供参考。     

台湾海峡船舶交通流的调查与分析

采用雷达观测方法获取台湾海峡船舶交通实况,应用自行开发的基于电子海图的观测数据与分析软件进行数据处理,分析台湾海峡船舶交通流分布,建立交通流模型,揭示台湾海峡船舶交通流特点和潜在危险。其调查与分析结果为实施台湾海峡船舶交通管理措施提供科学依据。     

大陆与台湾通航的客船船型初步分析

分析论证适用于大陆和台湾通航的客船船型。首先预测未来几年台湾与大陆之间往来的客流量及其流向 ,提出拟开辟台—闽间的海峡航线和基隆—上海航线。针对台闽间的海峡航线 ,在列举台湾海峡历年风浪情况的基础上 ,在作技术性能和经济效益综合评估后 ,建议采用 6种复合型高速船型。接着就 6种船型作营运经济估算及其排序 ,作变客位、车位的比较 ,变航速的比较 ,以及与常规客船船型的比较。结论是 :从技术和经济性角度考虑 ,双体气垫船和双体穿浪船较好 ;从客流量和货载量考虑 ,高速客船和常规客船按 5 0 0客位、4 5 - 10 0辆车位设计已能满足要求。从航速考虑 ,宜采用 4 0kn的客船。最后还就适用于基隆—上海航线的船型作简略探讨 ,提出宜采用集装箱—客船和客—滚装船     

Generalized F distribution model with random parameters for estimating property damage cost in maritime accidents

ABSTRACT

This study develops a generalized F distribution model with random parameters to estimate the ship property damage cost in maritime traffic accidents with 10 years’ shipping accident data in the Fujian waters. Model results show that sinking and capsizing can incur the largest property damage cost, followed by collisions, contact, grounding and fire/explosion. There is a smaller ship property damage cost when the ship is moored or docked. The poor visibility has the least impact on the increment of ship property damage cost. Results reveal that the bigger property damage cost is associated with maritime accidents occurring in the Straits/sea areas and under the strong wind/wave condition and nighttime periods. It is also found that the lookout failure exhibits a bigger effect than the operation error. These results are helpful for policy makers to make efficient strategies for reducing property damage cost in maritime accidents. The developed model is useful for insurance companies in determining the appropriate ship insurance rates.     

China' maritime developments

Development of ports and shipping in China are continuing at a phenomenal pace. They are now entering a second phase in these developments. With basic capacity to handle China's growing foreign trade established. China's ports and shipping are now being ratinalized in terms of inland infrastructure and intermodal networks, optimum trade flows, foreign alliances, and physical forms or consolidation of cargo. These developments are driven by the lack of a large, deep water ocean fleet on one hand and limited water depths at many major ports. Similarly, the extension of economic development to the inland ports of China has become a priority as has the effective integration of Hong Kong and gradual opening of direct shipping across the Taiwan Straits.