Comparing the impact of future airline network change on emissions in India and the United States

In this paper we use simulation to analyze how flight routing network structure may change in different world regions, and how this might impact future traffic growth and emissions. We compare models of the domestic Indian and US air transportation systems, representing developing and mature air transportation systems respectively. We explicitly model passenger and airline decision-making, capturing passenger demand effects and airline operational responses, including airline network change. The models are applied to simulate air transportation system growth for networks of 49 airports in each country from 2005 to 2050. In India, the percentage of connecting passengers simulated decreases significantly (from over 40% in 2005 to under 10% in 2050), indicating that a shift in network structure towards increased point-to-point routing can be expected. In contrast, very little network change is simulated for the US airport set modeled. The simulated impact of network change on system CO₂ emissions is very small, although in the case of India it could enable a large increase in demand, and therefore a significant reduction in emissions per passenger (by nearly 25%). NO_x emissions at major hub airports are also estimated, and could initially reduce relative to a case in which network change is not simulated (by nearly 25% in the case of Mumbai in 2025). This effect, however, is significantly reduced by 2050 because of frequency competition effects. We conclude that network effects are important when estimating CO₂ emissions per passenger and local air quality effects at hub airports in developing air transportation systems.     

Origin–destination synthesis for aviation network data: examining hub operations in the domestic and international US markets

Hub‐and‐spoke networking is a key feature of current aviation markets in which hubs, as connecting points, function to consolidate and redistribute flows. This indicates that observation of traffic on a segment does not necessarily convey information about the origin to destination routing of passenger journeys because of the unavoidable detours in the system. This paper examines the heterogeneity of the flow composition in domestic and international US markets, which in turn allows us to observe the variation of operations across major hubs. A modified Route Flow Estimator for origin–destination synthesis (or origin–destination matrix estimation) is designed to decompose the segment traffic into itinerary‐based passenger trips. Several public and commercial databases, which are easily accessible, are exploited (and reconciled) for the model in order to (i) generate possible trip itineraries using those segment markets, and (ii) link data‐driven operational conditions with the underlying segment flows. The results are validated with US domestic trip observations and empirical knowledge related to the air transportation system. Then, the variability of the hub operations is examined based on sensitivity tests using the model parameters. From the resolution of itinerary‐based estimates, we observe that major airports' hub operations are spatially uneven, particularly with respect to domestic and international connecting passengers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Public service obligations for air transport in the United States and Europe: Connectivity effects and value for money

Public service obligations (PSOs) are used by governments in many countries, including the United States and 11 countries in Europe, to mandate a minimum level of commercial air transportation service, especially for small or rural communities. This paper analyzes PSOs in these 12 countries for the year 2010 using the recently proposed Global Connectivity Index to measure direct and indirect market access and a novel subsidy database covering 90% of PSO movements in these countries to assess value-for-money.We show that PSO services represent about 2.5% of all commercial movements in the 12 countries analyzed, generating about 1% of these countries’ total air transport connectivity. Over all routes for which data was available, approximately USD$ 900 million was earmarked for PSO and air service discount provision in 2010, with average subsidies per movement ranging from about $700 to $3500. PSO market access and efficiency outcomes vary across the countries analyzed. Some countries, such as Germany and the United States, focus on providing network access for smaller communities, thereby creating not only point-to-point, but also onward connectivity, while others such as Norway, Sweden, and Ireland, predominantly aim at providing “lifeline services” that connect remote regions to a nearby economic center without providing onward connections.     

Open skies and open gates

Airline alliances are a global transportation issue which is the subject of increasing attention in the literature. A simple simulation model of air carrier competition in a network is constructed to examine the economic welfare effects of different levels of alliance between the carriers serving the network. The simulations confirm that consumers derive benefits from improved access to passenger markets. However, in many cases, carriers tend to gain from a limited alliance such as code-sharing. This suggests that closer alliances may be driven by other considerations such as raising barriers to entry or the cross-subsidisation of international routes through greater control of the domestic market.     

Route structures in air transportation—the situation in the federal republic of Germany

This paper deals with route structures in air transportation in general and describes the derivation of such structures. Based on an extensive analysis of scheduled air traffic in Germany, an overview of the situation in domestic and international air travel is given. In particular, relationships were found which permit—in connection with a number of influencing factors—to derive from the present situation route structures, which are also valid for a future year.

This approach was used for the assignment of origin‐destination‐passenger flows to air network routes in a forecast of demand and services in commercial air transportation of the Federal Republic of Germany for the year 1995.     

Emergence of resilience as a framework for state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) in the United States

State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) in the United States are responsible for a large portfolio of transportation modes and services, including passenger and freight systems. These responsibilities include operations under routine conditions and during incidents and events that result from various natural and human-caused hazards. During unexpected events, disruptions and reductions in service result in requiring the reallocation and reassignment of personnel, modal, and economic resources. To better prevent and respond to the effects of service disruptions, the concept of resilience has emerged as an important framework, within which, DOTs across the United States are using to plan for the occurrence of threats. In this paper, the key findings of recent reviews of literature and practice related to resilience among state DOTs in the United States are summarized. The review effort focused on a range of risks faced by transportation agencies including climate change, terrorism, cyber-attacks, and aging infrastructure and the ways in which DOTs are confronting them in practice. The topics of this paper range from the fundamental, including definitions of transportation resilience; to the more complex such as examinations of risk, vulnerability and threats; to the most sophisticated topics including administrative-level efforts to conceptualize evolving transportation planning and policies within a resilience framework.     

What determines rail transit passenger volume? Implications for transit oriented development planning

Transit oriented development (TOD) has been an important topic for urban transportation planning research and practice. This paper is aimed at empirically examining the effect of rail transit station-based TOD on daily station passenger volume. Using integrated circuit (IC) card data on metro passenger volumes and cellular signaling data on the spatial distribution of human activities in Shanghai, the research identifies variations in ridership among rail transit stations. Then, regression analysis is performed using passenger volume in each station as the dependent variable. Explanatory variables include station area employment and population, residents’ commuting distances, metro network accessibility, status as interchange station, and coupling with commercial activity centers. The main findings are: (1) Passenger volume is positively associated with employment density and residents’ commuting distance around station; (2) stations with earlier opening dates and serving as transfer nodes tend to have positive association with passenger volumes; (3) metro stations better integrated with nearby commercial development tend to have larger passenger volumes. Several implications are drawn for TOD planning: (1) TOD planning should be integrated with rail transit network planning; (2) location of metro stations should be coupled with commercial development; (3) high employment densities should be especially encouraged as a key TOD feature; and (4) interchange stations should be more strategically positioned in the planning for rail transit network.     

Quantitative analysis of passenger and baggage security screening at airports

The terrorist attacks in the United States in 2001 opened a new era in air transportation. The realization that civil aircraft can be used as powerful weapons of mass destruction by a small group of people has drastically increased the need for security screening procedures to protect civil flights. Serving as the interface between the air and land transportation modes, airports have become the main focus in the implementation of those procedures. The need to more thoroughly screen passengers and baggage, and the consequent increase in processing time, has created the need for more space for security checkpoints and baggage screening inside passenger terminal buildings—space that is costly and very difficult to find in existing buildings. This paper evaluates the impact those measures have had on the planning and operation of airport passenger terminals. Quantification of those impacts is performed with the use of discrete‐event simulation and spreadsheet models.     

Impact of slot controls with a market-based allocation mechanism at San Francisco International Airport

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the possible impact of the application of slot controls as a demand-management measure at San Francisco International Airport (SFO). We examine the specific case of slot controls allocated with a market-based mechanism. The paper first describes the nature of the delay problem at SFO and how slot controls would work to manage demand, briefly reviewing their history in the US. We then describe the methodology used to analyze their potential impact given the assumption of a market-based allocation mechanism and present our findings on their predicted impacts on arrival delays and the nature and level of scheduled passenger air service at the airport. Finally, we present conclusions as to the overall potential of slot controls to alleviate delay at SFO and their non-delay consequences. The methods presented in the paper facilitate a detailed analysis of the incidence of the impact of slot controls on passengers, airlines and individual communities that depend on SFO for access to the national air transportation system.     

Development of network restructuring models for improved air traffic forecasts

Current air traffic forecast methods employed by the United States Federal Aviation Administration function under the assumption that the structure of the network of routes operated by airlines will not change; that is, no new routes will be added nor existing ones removed. However, in reality the competitive nature of the airline industry is such that new routes are routinely added between cities possessing significant passenger demand; city-pairs are also removed. Such phenomena generates a gap between the forecasted and actual state of the US Air Transportation System in the long term, providing insufficient situational awareness to major stakeholders and decision-makers in their consideration of major policy and technology changes. To address this gap, we have developed and compared three algorithms that forecast the likelihood of un-connected city-pairs being connected by service in the future, primarily based on the nodal characteristics of airports in the US network. Validation is performed by feeding historical data to each algorithm and then comparing the accuracy and precision of new city-pairs forecasted using knowledge of actual new city-pairs that developed. While an Artificial Neural Network produces superior precision, fitness function and logistic regression algorithms provide good representation of the distribution of new route types as well as greater flexibility for modeling future scenarios. However, these latter two algorithms face difficulty in resolving differences among the large number of ‘spoke’ airports in the network – additional parameters that may be able to differentiate them are currently under review. These insights gained are valuable stepping stones for exploiting knowledge of restructuring in the service route network to improve overall forecasts that drive policy and technology decision-making.     

Assessment of stratospheric fuel burn by civil commercial aviation

When jetliners fly in the stratosphere, their emissions tend to be longer-lived and therefore have greater environmental impact. Since the altitude of the tropopause is not consistent and can be as low as 23,000 ft., cruising flights may have a great chance to fly into the stratosphere. In this paper, we present a simple and rapid method to estimate the extent of US commercial passenger and cargo flight that currently occurs in the stratosphere, based on publicly available historical data from 2008 to 2012. We model the vertical profile of a flight and compare it with the height of the tropopause along its route. Our analysis covers 78% of the total travelled distance reported by the United States Bureau of Transportation Statistics, and shows that these flights burnt ∼11 million tons of fuel annually, or ∼31% of cruise fuel, in the stratosphere between 2008 and 2012. Our results also show that the chance of flying into stratosphere varies by area, but flights within the contiguous United States tend to stay below the stratosphere. Moreover, the stratosphere fuel burn of Asia-US flights may be significantly reduced by taking jet stream routes.     

Evaluating the efficiency of the Essential Air Service program in the United States

Essential Air Service (EAS) is a federally funded program in the United States that provides connecting, commercial air service between rural communities and their nearest large or medium commercial hub airport. During fiscal year 2010, $170 million dollars were spent to provide this service to 107 communities in the US. However, with significant variations in subsidies to each airport (ranging from $427,757 to $3,082,403) and marked differences in passengers served, there are serious concerns regarding the overall efficiency of the EAS program. The purpose of this paper is to use data envelopment analysis integrated in a geographic information system for evaluating service efficiencies at the community level. Policy implications and strategies to improve the EAS program are discussed.     

Meeting mobility and air quality goals: Strategies that work

Recent federal legislation sets tough air quality goals for the nation but offers scant guidance to urban areas responsible for meeting those goals. Traditionally, transportation-related air quality policy emphasized cleaner vehicle and fuels technologies and alternatives to single-occupant vehicle travel such as car-pooling and mass transit. Analysis suggests, however, that meeting air quality goals will require the addition of policies to manage the growing demand for transportation. The introduction of market forces into transportation supply and demand decisions would support traditional transportation and air quality strategies, and produce additional mobility, air quality, and economic benefits. Recent transportation legislation offers states and localities the flexibility to meet mobility and air quality goals in an innovative, nontraditional manner. Drawing on theoretical analysis and recent empirical evidence we offer a package of measures for the consideration of state, and federal policy-makers.The authors are with the Office of Policy Analysis of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The views expressed here belong solely to the authors. This paper does not represent the view of the US EPA or the policy of the United States Government. This paper was significantly improved by extensive comments from Bruce Schillo, and by suggestions from Michael Shelby, John Chamberlin (all of the EPA Office of Policy Analysis), Robin Miles-McLean (EPA Office of Mobile Sources), Allen Basala (EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards), and numerous other colleagues. The authors are responsible for all errors and interpretations.     

Measuring energy and environmental efficiency of transportation systems in China based on a parallel DEA approach

Because of China’s rapid economic development, its transportation system has become one of China’s high-energy-consumption and high-pollution-emission sectors. However, little research has been done which pays close attention to China’s transportation system, especially in terms of energy and environmental efficiency evaluation. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is applied to measure the energy and environment performance of transportation systems in China with the goal of sustainable development. This paper treats transportation as a parallel system consisting of subsystems for passenger transportation and freight transportation, and extends a parallel DEA approach to evaluate the efficiency of each subsystem. An efficiency decomposition procedure is proposed to obtain the highest achievable subsystem efficiency. Our empirical study on 30 of mainland China’s provincial-level regions shows that most of them have a low efficiency in their transportation system and the two parallel subsystems. There are large efficiency differences between the passenger and freight transportation subsystems. In addition, unbalanced development has occurred in the three large areas of China, with the east having the highest efficiency, followed by central China and then west. Therefore, more measures should be taken to balance and coordinate the development between the three large areas and between the two subsystems within them. Our analysis approach gives data for determining effective measures.     

Improving the accessibility of urban transportation networks for people with disabilities

What is the most effective way to enhance the accessibility of our oldest and largest public transportation systems for people with reduced mobility? The intersection of limits to government support with the growing mobility needs of the elderly and of people with disabilities calls for the development of tools that enable us to better prioritise investment in those areas that would deliver the greatest benefits to travellers. In principle and, to a lesser extent, in practice, many trains and buses are already accessible to nearly all users, leaving the stations and interchanges as the single largest and most expensive challenge facing operators trying to improve overall access to the network.Focussing on travel time and interchange differences, we present a method that uses network science and spatio-temporal analysis to rank stations in a way that minimises the divergence between accessible and non-accessible routes. Taking London as case study, we show that 50% of the most frequently followed journeys become 50% longer when wheelchair accessibility becomes a constraint. Prioritising accessibility upgrades using our network approach yields a total travel time that is more than 8 times better than a solution based on random choice, and 30% more effective than a solution that seeks solely to minimise the number of interchanges facing those with mobility constraints. These results highlight the potential for the analysis of ‘smart card’ data to enable network operators to obtain maximum value from their infrastructure investments in support of expanded access to all users.     

Campus parking supply impacts on transportation mode choice

Parking demand is a significant land-use problem in campus planning. The parking policies of universities and large corporations with facilities located in small urban areas shape the character of their campuses. These facilities will benefit from a simplified methodology to study the effects of parking availability on transportation mode mix and impacts on recruitment and staffing policies. This paper, based on a case study of North Dakota State University in the United States, introduces an analytical framework to provide planners with insights about how parking supply and demand affects campus transportation mode choice. The methodology relies only on aggregate mode choice data for the special generator zone and the average aggregate volume/capacity ratio projections for all external routes that access the zone. This reduced data requirement significantly lowers analysis cost and obviates the need for specialized modelling software and spatial network analysis tools. Results illustrate that the framework is effective for analysing mode choice changes under different scenarios of parking supply and population growth.     

Improvement of air quality by means of transportation system management

Under the United States federal Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, states must implement transportation system management (TSM) tactics in urban areas that have not attained national ambient air quality standards for carbon monoxide and photochemical oxidants. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of the effectiveness and feasibility of using TSM tactics to improve air quality. Based on this assessment, the authors conclude that TSM measures should be effective in eliminating localized carbon monoxide problems, but that such measures are not likely to contribute significantly toward reducing regional oxidant levels. In addition, because most individual TSM tactics can have only marginal impacts on regional motor vehicle emissions, coordinating the planning and implementation of a portfolio of TSM measures will be an essential element of an effective TSM program for improving air quality.     

A model to design a national high-speed rail network for freight distribution

High-speed rail is often touted as a means to reduce congestion on the United States’ highways by removing passenger car traffic. But highway congestion can also be reduced by reducing the amount of freight traffic. So, given the advances in high-speed rail, the potential exists for developing a national high-speed network for freight distribution. To design such a network considering highway traffic and transit times, we present an uncapacitated network design model with a post-processing step for the capacity constraint. To illustrate how our modeling approach could be used by policy makers to evaluate the impacts of a high-speed rail network, we apply our models with preliminary data on high-speed rail operating parameters for freight applications and from current data on shipments from a major truckload carrier and the US Census Bureau.     

An optimization model of energy and transportation systems: Assessing the high-speed rail impacts in the United States

This paper presents a long-term investment planning model that co-optimizes infrastructure investments and operations across transportation and electric infrastructure systems for meeting the energy and transportation needs in the United States. The developed passenger transportation model is integrated within the modeling framework of a National Long-term Energy and Transportation Planning (NETPLAN) software, and the model is applied to investigate the impact of high-speed rail (HSR) investments on interstate passenger transportation portfolio, fuel and electricity consumption, and 40-year cost and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The results show that there are feasible scenarios under which significant HSR penetration can be achieved, leading to reasonable decrease in national long-term CO₂ emissions and costs. At higher HSR penetration of approximately 30% relative to no HSR in the portfolio promises a 40-year cost savings of up to $0.63 T, gasoline and jet fuel consumption reduction of up to 34% for interstate passenger trips, CO₂ emissions reduction by about 0.8 billion short tons, and increased resilience against petroleum price shocks. Additionally, sensitivity studies with respect to light-duty vehicle mode share reveal that in order to realize such long-term cost and emission benefits, a change in the passenger mode choice is essential to ensure higher ridership for HSR.     

Own and cross-price elasticities of demand for domestic flights and intercity trains in the U.S.

In 2009, the U.S. Federal Government announced its plan to invest in the expansion of the passenger rail system, instead of adding to the freeway or aviation systems. On the other hand, environmental studies show that passenger rails have a lower polluting impact than flights or cars. In order to evaluate whether consumers would switch from flights to trains and use the new rail system, this paper estimates the own and cross-price elasticities of demand for domestic flights and passenger trains using the methodology described in Berry (1994). Specifically, the changes in demand for domestic flights and trains with respect to their prices are evaluated. The static model in this study suggests that the substitutability between these two modes of transport is minimal, in other words, travelers will to change their choices is very small given the configuration of the transportation system when the notice was made. In particular, train trips are substituted more easily.