基于首位度和位序-规模法则的长三角港口群发展演化分析

为了深入剖析长三角港口群的等级规模分布及演化规律，以货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量为衡量港口规模的指标，运用港口首位度和位序-规模法则对长三角地区港口规模分布进行研究。结果表明：长三角地区港口间差距不断缩小，港口等级规模分布由首位分布向位序-规模分布演变；江苏省港口等级规模结构比较松散，高位序港口集聚效应不明显，浙江省港口吞吐量分布则过于集中；长三角港口群规模分布总体上呈分散化发展趋势，未来需要加快推动内河港等小型港口的发展，进一步优化港口体系结构；长三角港口群的货物运输已形成比较稳定且分散的系统，而新兴集装箱港口不断涌现，集装箱运输发展迅速，其等级体系仍在不断变化，长三角集装箱港口的规模分布集聚程度更高。     

基于AHP-RS的沿海都市带主要港口评价实证分析

区域港口群资源整合已成为当前航运业发展热点之一,文章从港口规模角度,研究区域范围意义下的主要港口评价问题。以改进后的港口吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量指标为基础,构建区域范围意义下的主要港口评价指标体系,以国内外沿海都市带为例,运用AHP-RS法对都市带内主要港口进行相关评价分析。为客观认识和评价港口自身相对规模水平提供参考,也为沿海都市带框架下的区域港口群有序规划发展提供了依据和思路。通过实例验证了AHP-RS综合评价法在港口评价应用中的科学有效性,值得进一步推广。     

基于灰色关联分析法的港口物流与区域经济协同发展研究——以宁波-舟山港为例

区域经济合作推动了商品贸易的全球化发展,港口作为沟通海陆的信息中转站,其物流产业状况势必会对区域经济发展产生重大影响。为探究港口物流与区域经济的协同发展关系,本文以宁波-舟山港作为研究对象,通过选取2006年宁波港与舟山港"两港合一"后的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量数据与城市各项经济指标进行灰色关联分析,发现生产总值、规模以上工业总产值与港口物流产业具有较高相关性,两者的关联度值均高于0.75,对于港口经济发展有明显的助推作用。由此,本文基于关联度分析结果与城市港口现状,针对性地提出相关发展建议。     

中国港航股指走势月度分析（2012年6月）

1中国A股码头上市公司指数走势 2012年1-5月,我国港口生产增速持续放缓。2012年5月,全国规模以上港口完成货物吞吐量8.4亿t,同比增长5．7％,其中：外贸货物吞吐量2．7亿t,同比增长14．2％;沿海规模以上港口完成货物吞叶世5．7亿t;内河港口完成货物吞吐量2．7亿t。     

辽宁港口群集装箱运输协调发展策略

近年来,我国各区域港口群积极发展集装箱运输,辽宁港口群也不例外,但该区域港口面临腹地经济规模小、货源不足、货物分流、航线竞争激烈等问题,十分不利于未来港口集装箱运输的发展。鉴于此,有必要协调整合辽宁港口群,减少区域内港口的内部竞争,以形成合力,共同促进辽宁港口群集装箱运输发展。本文分析辽宁港口群集装箱运输发展现状,并对未来5～10年该区域集装箱运输市场的需求状况进行预测,在此基础上,提出促进辽宁港口群集装箱运输协调发展的措施。     

全国港口行业2014年2月景气指数评点

<正>2014年2月,我国港口行业景气指数为164.67点,环比下跌25.66点,跌幅为13.48%;同比上涨13.65点,涨幅为9.04%。从吞吐量统计数据来看,环比方面,当月全国港口货物吞吐量指数、外贸吞吐量指数和集装箱吞吐量指数分别下跌13.2%、16.1%和25.7%;同比方面,三项指数分别上涨10.8%、14.0%和14.9%。从各区域港口环比情况来看,六大区域港口吞吐量综合指数均下跌,平均跌幅为18.7%,跌幅最大的为珠三角区域港口的27.9%,跌幅最小的为环渤海区域港口的13.3%;同比方面,六大区域港口吞     

全国港口行业2015年10月景气指数评点

<正>2015年10月,我国港口行业景气指数为196.77点,环比下跌1.85点,跌幅为0.93%;同比下跌1.26点,跌幅为0.64%。从吞吐量统计数据来看,环比方面,当月全国港口货物吞吐量指数、集装箱吞吐量指数分别上涨0.6%、1.6%,外贸吞吐量指数则下跌6.4%;同比方面,货物吞吐量指数上涨4.3%,外贸吞吐量指数、集装箱吞吐量指数则分别下跌2.0%、4.2%。从各区域港口环比情况来看,环渤海、北部湾区域港口吞吐量综合指数分别上涨2.9%、0.2%,长三角、长江中上游、海峡西岸、珠三角区域港口吞吐量综合指数则分别     

全国港口行业2015年1月景气指数评点

2015年1月,我国港口行业景气指数为200.36点,环比上涨5.39点,涨幅为2.76%;同比上涨10.03点,涨幅为5.27%。 从吞吐量统计数据来看,环比方面,当月全国港口货物吞吐量指数、外贸吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量指数分别上涨3.9%、4.3%和3.4%;同比方面,三项指数分别上涨5.2%、0.6%和13.0%。从各区域港口环比情况来看,环渤海、长三角、长江中上游和北部湾区域港口吞吐量综合指数分别上涨11.7%、11.0%、4.8%和3.0%,海峡西岸和珠三角区域港口则分别下跌3.3%和1.1%;同比方面,六大区域港口吞吐量综合指数均上涨,平均涨幅为6.6%,其中涨幅最大的为长江中上游区域港口的22.2%,涨幅最小的为海峡西岸区域港口的1.8%。     

全国港口行业2015年8月景气指数评点

<正>2015年8月,我国港口行业景气指数为202.17点,环比上涨3.20点,涨幅为1.61%;同比上涨5.95点,涨幅为3.03%。从吞吐量统计数据来看,环比方面,当月全国港口货物吞吐量指数、外贸吞吐量指数、集装箱吞吐量指数分别上涨1.1%、1.4%、3.9%;同比方面,三项吞吐量指数分别上涨5.8%、5.9%、1.5%。从各区域港口环比情况来看,除环渤海区域港口吞吐量综合指数下跌4.5%外,长三角、长江中上游、海峡西岸、珠三角、北部湾区域港口吞吐量综合指数均上涨,涨幅     

述评 中国港航股指走势

一、3月中国A股码头上市公司指数走势 1-2月份，我国港口生产经营形势增速放缓，货物吞吐量、外贸吞吐量等主要指标较去年同期增幅下降。2月份，全国规模以上港口完成货物吞吐量7．23亿吨，同比增长17％。其中，外贸货物吞吐量累计实现2．26亿吨，同比增长17．8％。同期，沿海规模以上港口吞吐量完成4．97亿吨，同比增长14．8％；内河港口吞吐量完成2．18亿吨，同比增长22．3％。港口板块走势逐日向好，3月中旬之后走势稍有回落。     

Container port systems in China and the USA: a comparative study

This study compares the evolution of container port systems in China and the USA in terms of port throughput, number of container ports and the concentration level in the container port system, based on the time-series data on these three features over the period 1979–2009 for China and 1970–2009 for the USA. The results show that the densities of container ports in the two countries are similar, and their evolutionary processes are alike, which has led to a comparable market structure in the port industries of the two countries. In addition, the disparities between container ports closely represent the unevenness in the regional economic development. We further compare the port management regimes of the two countries in terms of the administrative processes for port development and expansion, the ownership structure and the providers of port functions, which offer some explanation on the dynamics of port evolution in the two countries. In conclusion, it can be seen that the evolution of the container port system and the management regime in the USA can be a de facto reference for the future development of the Chinese container port system.     

基于聚类的港口吞吐量预测方法及其适用性分析

在统计分析历史数据的基础上,选取港口吞吐量、GDP值等指标,采用SPSS统计分析软件中的层次聚类分析法,将我国具有代表性的港口按照吞吐量增长规律分成平稳增长型、加速增长型和波动增长型3类。然后选择时间序列法、回归分析法、灰色模型理论和神经网络模型法,对不同类型的港口吞吐量预测的适用性进行了理论分析。最后以上海港和镇江港为实例进行计算,并对不同预测方法的适用性进行了验证。     

Book reviews

We show in this paper that the throughput data for the top 300 container ports reported each year by the various authorities follows a simple truncated lognormal distribution. This surprising phenomenon repeats itself every year from 1982 to 2006, despite many tumultuous changes in the container shipping world. The empirical data suggests that Gibrat's Law of proportionate growth indeed holds for the world container throughput data. Unfortunately, the classical stochastic growth model and other variants often used to explain the origin of this law appears to be too simplistic for the container terminal industry. We use instead the perspective that the container terminal throughput data are essentially an aggregate measure of the number of visitations as each container circulates on the world shipping network, and use this to propose a Markov chain based container circulation model to explain the origin of this phenomenon. Simulation results show that our network-based model is able to replicate the behavior of the empirical data to a reasonable degree of accuracy, and does not contradict the law of proportionate growth. More importantly, this model is able to replicate the relationship between the degree of connectivity of a port (i.e. number of linkages with other ports) and its association with the container throughput data, an empirical regularity which could not be explained using classical approaches.     

巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港集装箱吞吐量预测

为评估新建巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的建设规模,构建由回归分析模型、腹地集装箱运输需求重力模型、多目标港口模糊评价模型和基于Logit模型的港口选择模型4部分组成的综合预测方法。对巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的腹地集装箱运输需求进行预测;并对腹地省份在不同港口的集装箱运量进行测算,从而科学合理地预测科考瑞港的集装箱吞吐量,为实施项目的必要性提供支持。该预测方法使用较少的基础数据即可比较科学客观地预测新建港口的集装箱吞吐量,能够较好地解决在不发达国家或地区统计资料缺失、安全局势不稳定导致腹地调研困难等情况下的吞吐量预测问题,为海外港口的建设、咨询项目提供帮助。     

大连港吞吐量与腹地经济发展关系研究

文章采用圈层结构法将大连港腹地划分为三个圈层范围,并通过构建哈夫引力模型分析各圈层经济指标与港口吞吐量之间的关系。结果表明：各圈层的经济指标对港口吞吐量的影响存在可量化的差异,从营口港对大连港吞吐量的实际影响出发,分析原因,并在两港腹地资源竞争分析基础上,提出区域化合作将是两港未来发展的理性选择。     

Port co-opetition in concept and practice

The port industry has undergone a rationalization process over the last decade. An increasing proportion of port management and operations is being taken over by global port operating groups. Many port operators who previously ran only their local business now extend their business scope to the regional or global scale; today's port operators can be regarded as multinational corporations. In the era of global economy, a port no longer enjoys a natural monopoly, as was the case in the past. To cope with this changing business environment, a certain form of competition and co-operation among ports is necessary so as to provide services that fit into shipping lines' strategies. It is suggested that ports have to concentrate on new ways for co-operation in an effort to establish a countervailing power. This paper proposes a new strategic option known as co-opetition , the combination of competition and co-operation, for the port industry, and explains a case of co-opetition between the container ports in Hong Kong and South China. The results of this research will provide a useful insight into the port industry, which is currently required to carry out its business in an ever-changing business environment.     

产业结构调整与我国沿海港口吞吐量的关系

从实证经济学的分析观点出发,利用投入产出的方法,研究了我国产业结构与沿海港口吞吐量的关联性,并结合回归方法分析了新一轮的产业结构调整对沿海港口吞吐量产生的影响。研究结果表明：这种方法真实地反映了产业结构调整与沿海港口吞吐量之间的数理逻辑关系和未来发展的走向,沿海港口吞吐量的增长受产业结构调整的影响逐步放缓,在越过拐点后将趋于稳定。     

The strategic role of ports in regional development: conceptualising the experience from Australia

Regional ports, as infrastructure in regions, influence transport and regional development policies and planning. The interaction and involvement of regional ports with their stakeholders in the region are pivotal. The conundrum on what constitutes a regional port and thus its region has further complicated this limited researched area. In the extant literature, port and region relationship mainly centres on major metropolitan ports, and pays little heed to regional ports. In this context, this study investigates on how the Australian regional ports can be better involved in regional development. The study adopts a qualitative methodology to explore the Australian regional port stakeholders’ perceptions on port’s role in regional development through 38 semi-structured telephone interviews. Thematic analysis of data assisted by a mixture of NVivo software and manual techniques proposes a conceptual model that may assist policy-making. The key findings suggest that symbiotic growths of ports and concerned regions accelerate regional development. To contribute to regional development, the Australian regional ports can be proactive in building collaboration with regional organisations. The findings have major implications for port managers and port policy-makers for developing a region-oriented long-term port planning and for creating environment for Australian regional ports for regional resource configuration.     

Port co-opetition in concept and practice

The port industry has undergone a rationalization process over the last decade. An increasing proportion of port management and operations is being taken over by global port operating groups. Many port operators who previously ran only their local business now extend their business scope to the regional or global scale; today's port operators can be regarded as multinational corporations. In the era of global economy, a port no longer enjoys a natural monopoly, as was the case in the past. To cope with this changing business environment, a certain form of competition and co-operation among ports is necessary so as to provide services that fit into shipping lines' strategies. It is suggested that ports have to concentrate on new ways for co-operation in an effort to establish a countervailing power. This paper proposes a new strategic option known as co-opetition, the combination of competition and co-operation, for the port industry, and explains a case of co-opetition between the container ports in Hong Kong and South China. The results of this research will provide a useful insight into the port industry, which is currently required to carry out its business in an ever-changing business environment.