Experimental uncertainty of a physical model of a tanker moored to a terminal in a port

This paper presents the uncertainty modelling of experimental results for a physical model of a tanker moored to a terminal inside a port. The physical model was built for an oil terminal at the port of Leixões in Portugal. The model incorporates the new modified port layout, as well as a future 300 m extension of the port outer north breakwater to enhance operational conditions. The physical model tests were performed on a scale of 1:80 in the Portuguese Civil Engineering Laboratory (LNEC). A generic mooring system of four mooring lines and two fenders is simulated using a nonlinear spring system. Decay tests are carried out to evaluate the natural periods of the moored model. Then, tests are carried out for the moored model in waves. The major aim of the experimental study is to obtain novel results for the wave elevation and direction at various locations inside the port, the ship motions at six degrees of freedom, and loads on mooring lines and fenders including the modified port layout. As the physical model measurements are subjected to different types of uncertainties, a systematic uncertainty analysis is carried out here, following ITTC guidelines and recommendations, to quantify all possible sources of uncertainties. The results are discussed, and several conclusions are reached. Based on the experimental results, the presented physical model study may replicate the results for waves and motions with uncertainties less than 9% of the significant amplitudes. The assessment of the applied nonlinear spring model reveals load predictions on the moorings, with uncertainties less than 4% of the maximum mooring loads.     

采用非概率方法对不同环境条件下的漂浮式风力机进行系泊损伤识别（英文）

This paper discusses the damage identification in the mooring line system of a floating wind turbine(FWT) exposed to various environmental loads. The proposed method incorporates a non-probabilistic method into artificial neural networks(ANNs). The non-probabilistic method is used to overcome the problem of uncertainties. For this purpose, the interval analysis method is used to calculate the lower and upper bounds of ANNs input data. This data contains some of the natural frequencies utilized to train two different ANNs and predict the output data which is the interval bounds of mooring line stiffness. Additionally, in order to reduce computational time and more importantly, identify damage in various conditions, the proposed method is trained using constant loads(CL) case(deterministic loads, including constant wind speed and airy wave model) and is tested using random loads(RL) case(including Kaimal wind model and JONSWAP wave theory). The superiority of this method is assessed by applying the deterministic method for damage identification. The results demonstrate that the proposed non-probabilistic method identifies the location and severity of damage more accurately compared to a deterministic one. This superiority is getting more remarkable as the difference in uncertainty levels between training and testing data is increasing.     

LNG旁靠FSRU码头系泊的水动力性能试验研究

本文对码头系泊的FSRU和LNG船的水动力性能进行了研究,分别对FSRU单船码头和FSRU-LNGC并排码头系泊进行了模型试验.码头与船和船与船之间均采用系泊缆和靠垫进行连接.试验中考虑了风、流、浪等环境因素对码头系泊系统的影响.在风浪流模型试验中,分别测量了不同海况下系泊系统的动态响应,其中包括FSRU和LNG船的六自由度运动响应、系泊缆张力和靠垫接触力.相比较其它浪向,横浪(90°)引起的船舶运动更大,进而导致系泊缆和靠垫的受力增大.结果还表明,FSRU单船码头系泊在所有海况下安全性较好,但对于LNG船旁靠FSRU码头系泊系统,其对环境的响应非常敏感,尤其是横浪环境.     

基于准动态法的穿梭油轮多点系泊分析

边际油田一般使用穿梭油轮进行原油运输.为减少穿梭油轮系泊的施工成本和难度,提出一种简单的系泊方式,即船尾用缆绳直接系泊于平台上,船首用锚链系泊于海底.基于准动态分析方法,设置风浪流不同方向组合、不同抛锚角以及不同的环境载荷,计算该系泊系统的受力特性和作业的限制工况.结果表明:该系泊系统在30°抛锚角下对环境力耐受程度最好;在波浪方向一定时,横流对系泊系统的影响比其他情况大,考虑系泊安全时进行风浪流不同方向组合是非常必要的;在环境条件已知且良好时,该系泊系统具有良好的适用性和经济性.     

大型LNG船舶系泊条件试验研究

以某开敞式LNG接收站码头工程为例,通过物理模型,采用国内先进的仪器设备和试验手段,包括国内第一台可吸收式L型造波机等,模拟了风、浪、流对系泊船舶的共同作用,分析探讨了大型LNG船舶系缆力和撞击力对风浪流三种环境荷载不同方向的响应。通过优化系缆墩的布置和系缆方式,达到了LNG船舶安全系泊要求,为工程设计和运营提供了依据。     

海洋平台设计中的风浪参数选取标准

以我国渤海某区1970年至1993年风暴过程的后报资料为基础,提出了泊松二维冈贝尔逻辑分布,并将其用于风暴过程中伴生的风速与波高的联合概率计算,给出了美国石油协会(API)行业标准有关环境条件三种设计标准的具体做法.基于新的统计模式,同时提出了联合概率法设计标准.比较了多种标准所得设计参数的差异,给出了适合工程所在海区的环境荷载参数.计算结果表明,新的统计模式适用于遭受风暴影响的海洋工程结构设计,特别是边际油田的开发建设.     

深水半潜平台的环境载荷分析

通过对南海水域环境下的深水式半潜生产平台的自存和作业两种工况的风载荷、波浪载荷和海流载荷计算,得到该平台的环境载荷特点,从计算结果看,风载荷、流载荷和波浪载荷对平台的影响相近,因此,在确定系泊系统的设计时,这三个因素的影响都不可忽视。     

Estimation of extreme significant wave heights and the associated uncertainties: A case study using NORA10 hindcast data for the Barents Sea

The reliability of an offshore structure is dependent on its response to the extreme wave climate; therefore, an adequate knowledge of the wave climate at a location is a prerequisite during design as well as in marine operations. This study aims to contribute to the knowledge of the extreme wave climate in the Norwegian Sector of the Barents Sea, using wave hindcast datasets from the Norwegian Reanalysis 10 km (NORA10) database for four locations.We have considered three commonly used methods for the estimation of extreme wave heights, that is, the initial distribution method, the peak over threshold method, and the annual maxima method. The parametric bootstrap concept is considered in the estimation of the epistemic uncertainty related to sample size. The estimated 100-year significant wave heights obtained from the three methods differ, and the degree of variability in the estimates varies, depending on the dataset. The epistemic uncertainty due to sample size is wider when considering the annual maxima method.The estimates obtained from the three methods show the importance of considering different methods and their associated uncertainties when estimating extreme wave values for design. While it is difficult to single out the best method among the three, the estimated values give knowledge of the possible range of the extreme significant wave heights at the locations. Generally, the datasets considered in this study suggest that the wave climate is less harsh further north compared to the southern region of the Barents Sea. The datasets do not suggest any temporal trends in the historical significant wave heights at any of the locations.     

Comparing different contour methods with response-based methods for extreme ship response analysis

Environmental contours are often applied in probabilistic structural reliability analysis to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. They facilitate approximate long term analysis of critical structural responses in situations where computationally heavy and time-consuming response calculations makes full long-term analysis infeasible. The environmental contour method identifies extreme environmental conditions that are expected to give rise to extreme structural response of marine structures. The extreme responses can then be estimated by performing response calculations for environmental conditions along the contours.Response-based analysis is an alternative, where extreme value analysis is performed on the actual response rather than on the environmental conditions. For complex structures, this is often not practical due to computationally heavy response calculations. However, by establishing statistical emulators of the response, using machine learning techniques, one may obtain long time-series of the structural response and use this to estimate extreme responses.In this paper, various contour methods will be compared to response-based estimation of extreme vertical bending moment for a tanker. A response emulator based on Gaussian processes regression with adaptive sampling has been established based on response calculations from a hydrodynamic model. Long time-series of sea-state parameters such as significant wave height and wave period are used to construct N-year environmental contours and the extreme N-year response is estimated from numerical calculations for identified sea states. At the same time, the response emulator is applied on the time series to provide long time-series of structural response, in this case vertical bending moment of a tanker. Extreme value analysis is then performed directly on the responses to estimate the N-year extreme response. The results from either method will then be compared, and it is possible to evaluate the accuracy of the environmental contour method in estimating the response. Moreover, different contour methods will be compared.     

Practical estimation methods of the design loads for primary structural members of tankers

Various design loads used in the strength evaluation of ship structures have been introduced currently by classification societies. As most of these design loads have been determined as the standard loads for the sake of convenience, the relationships between the design loads and the sea states actually encountered by ships seem to be weak. Accordingly, it may be difficult to refer and utilize them as the fundamental design concepts for ship designers or the operational guidelines for ship operators. To overcome these difficulties, the authors have developed practical estimation methods of the design loads having transparent and consistent backgrounds to the actual loads acting on primary structural members of tankers. In this paper, the design sea states that closely resemble the actual sea states which are considered as the most severe for hull structures are firstly proposed. Secondly, the practical estimation methods of the design sea states are proposed by parametric studies using the results of series calculation of representative tankers. Thirdly, the practical estimation methods of design regular waves resulting in the same level of stresses with that induced in irregular waves under the design sea states are proposed. Finally, the practical estimation methods of the design loads such as ship motions, accelerations, hull girder bending moments and hydrodynamic pressures that are induced under design regular waves are proposed.     

沉埋式海底隧道管段海上系泊水动力性能分析

沉埋式海底隧道管段海上系泊阶段的结构运动响应及缆索受力,影响其水上施工的安全性和经济性。以一管段系泊工程为例,利用基于三维势流理论的水动力软件AQWA建立管段海上系泊数值仿真计算模型,首先对系泊系统进行频域分析,然后在时域内考虑JONSWAP波浪谱和水流联合作用,研究环境载荷方向、环境载荷组合方式等因素对系统运动响应及缆索受力的影响。结果表明:管段在高频区域内稳定性较好,响应幅值很小;水流对管段的运动响应影响很大;当环境力以60°入射管段时,管段的系泊缆张力最大。     

A simplified method for reliability- and integrity-based design of engineering systems and its application to offshore mooring systems

This paper presents a simplified method for the reliability- and the integrity-based optimal design of engineering systems and its application to offshore mooring systems. The design of structural systems is transitioning from the conventional methods, which are based on factors of safety, to more advanced methods, which require calculation of the failure probability of the designed system for each project. Using factors of safety to account for the uncertainties in the capacity (strength) or demands can lead to systems with different reliabilities. This is because the number and arrangement of components in each system and the correlation of their responses could be different, which could affect the system reliability. The generic factors of safety that are specified at the component level do not account for such differences. Still, using factors of safety, as a measure of system safety, is preferred by many engineers because of the simplicity in their application. The aim of this paper is to provide a simplified method for design of engineering systems that directly involves the system annual failure probability as a measure of system safety, concerning system strength limit state. In this method, using results of conventional deterministic analysis, the optimality factors for an integrity-based optimal design are used instead of generic safety factors to assure the system safety. The optimality factors, which estimate the necessary change in average component capacities, are computed especially for each component and a target system annual probability of system failure using regression models that estimate the effect of short and long term extreme events on structural response. Because in practice, it is convenient to use the return period as a measure to quantify the likelihood of extreme events, the regression model in this paper is a relationship between the component demands and the annual probability density function corresponding to every return period. This method accounts for the uncertainties in the environmental loads and structural capacities, and identifies the target mean capacity of each component for maximizing its integrity and meeting the reliability requirement. In addition, because various failure modes in a structural system can lead to different consequences (including damage costs), a method is introduced to compute optimality factors for designated failure modes. By calculating the probability of system failure, this method can be used for risk-based decision-making that considers the failure costs and consequences. The proposed method can also be used on existing structures to identify the riskiest components as part of inspection and improvement planning. The proposed method is discussed and illustrated considering offshore mooring systems. However, the method is general and applicable also to other engineering systems. In the case study of this paper, the method is first used to quantify the reliability of a mooring system, then this design is revised to meet the DNV recommended annual probability of failure and for maximizing system integrity as well as for a designated failure mode in which the anchor chains are the first components to fail in the system.     

On the importance of mooring system parametrisation for accurate floating structure designs

This paper analyses the importance of mooring design parametrisation on the dynamic behaviour of mooring loads. An exhaustive sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the variability of mooring loads because of inaccuracies in the definition of model inputs, including physical and numerical parameters. Results show a relevant dependence on the length and significance in other parameters, such as the weight together with the hydrodynamic equivalent diameter and the drag forces. An inaccuracy below 1% in the mooring reference length can generate loads of up to twice the design, and an incorrect definition of the weight or the drag coefficient in the mooring design can lead to a design load variability of up to 30%. Stiffness plays a crucial role in snap events, reaching load differences of 19% depending on the stiffness selected.This research is based on a set of numerical models capable of predicting the mooring system response. A dynamic numerical model with two schemes of resolution is implemented and calibrated according to an experimental test campaign. Other sources of results provided by a quasi-static model and commercial software, Sesam (DNV-GL), are incorporated. In general, the dynamic numerical models show a good accuracy with an experimental database composed by a set of 2D prescribed movement tests at the fairlead of the mooring system.     

Extensive study on the design loads used for strength assessment of tanker and bulk carrier structures

ClassNK has undertaken wide-ranging basic research covering many aspects related to the safety of ship structures, including design loads, structural analysis, strength assessment of buckling, collapse, and fatigue, and rational corrosion margins to develop new design standards which have transparency and consistency. Among the wide-ranging basic research, this article summarizes the results of extensive work on the design loads used for strength assessments of tanker and bulk carrier structures. The main aim of the research was to develop practical estimation methods of design loads with rational technical backgrounds relating to the actual loads acting on the primary structural members of tankers and bulk carriers. During this study, we proposed the following methodology. Design sea states that closely resemble the actual sea states which are considered to be the most severe for hull structures. Find practical estimation methods for the design sea states by parametric studies using the results of series calculations on representative tankers and bulk carriers. Find practical estimation methods for design regular waves which will result in the same level of stresses as those induced in irregular waves under the design sea states. We also briefly introduced some practical estimation methods for the design loads, such as ship motions, accelerations, hull-girder bending moments, and hydrodynamic pressures that are induced under design regular waves. The findings in this study have been summarized and implemented in the new design standards for tanker and bulk carrier structures.Updated from the Japanese original which won the 2003 SNAJ prize (J Soc Nav Archit Jpn 2002; 191:195–207; 2002; 191:208–220; and 2002; 192:723–733)     

悬链浮筒式多点系泊设计

悬链浮筒式多点系泊(MBM)是油船常见的一种离岸系泊方式。针对浮筒式多点系泊设计的适用规范、平面布置、波浪荷载、系缆分析等基本设计问题进行论述,采用国内外规范对比研究、OPTIMOOR软件模拟、工程项目案例研究等方法,给出MBM系泊设计的平面基本布局、船舶荷载计算方法、系缆分析方法。结果表明,利用OPTIMOOR作为动态模拟分析软件,采用频域分析的方法可以有效地对浮筒式多点系泊设计进行设计与优化。     

波浪和海流对浮式海洋牧场的作用（英文）

The paper is partly a review on hydrodynamic and structural aspects of fish farms. In addition, new numerical results are presented on the stochastic behavior of bending stresses in the floater of a realistic net cage in extreme wave conditions. The behavior of traditional-type fish farms with net cages and closed fish farms in waves and currents is discussed. Hydroelasticity can play a significant role for net cages and closed membrane-type fish farms. The many meshes in a net cage make CFD and complete structural modeling impracticable. As an example, a hydrodynamic screen model and structural truss elements are instead used to represent the hydrodynamic loading and the structural deformation of the net. In addition, the wake inside the net due to current plays an important role. The described simplified numerical method has been validated by comparing with model tests of mooring loads on a single net cage with two circular elastic floaters and bottom weight ring in waves and currents. It is discussed which parts of the complete system play the most important roles in accurately determining the mooring loads. Many realizations of a sea state are needed to obtain reliable estimates of extreme values in a stochastic sea. In reality, many net cages operate in close vicinity, which raises questions about spatial variations of the current and wave environment as well as hydrodynamic interaction between the net cages. Live fish touching the netting can have a non-negligible influence on the mooring loads. It is demonstrated by numerical calculations in waves and currents that a well boat at a net cage can have a significant influence on the mooring loads and the bending stresses in the floater. The latter results provide a rational way to obtain operational limits for a well boat at a fish farm. Sloshing has to be accounted for in describing the behavior of a closed fish farm when important wave frequencies are in the vicinity of natural sloshing frequencies. The structural flexibility has to be considered in determining the natural sloshing frequencies for a membrane-type closed fish farm. Free-surface non-linearities can matter for sloshing and can, for instance,result in swirling in a certain frequency domain for a closed cage with a vertical symmetry axis.     

Response-based extreme value analysis of moored offshore structures due to wave, wind, and current

Floating moored offshore structures have a significant future in offshore operations as an attractive economic alternative to fixed structures in deep waters and/or in areas where there is no existing infrastructure. This paper describes an analysis procedure based on the structure variable approach to estimate load and response values of a moored offshore platform at a given return period by taking into account the joint occurrence of wave, wind, and current. The results show that the most severe mooring loads may not occur when wind, wave, and current are collinear and are at their maximum design values, i.e., the 50- or 100-year case. It is recommended that the extreme mooring design loads for moored offshore systems should be determined through a range of physical or numerical simulations where wave, wind, and current are noncollinear and act with less severe magnitudes than the 50- or 100-year case. This recommendation has also been adopted in the ITTC/Ocean Engineering Committee recommendations to the ITTC Conference held in September 1996.     

损伤舰船结构安全性评估

损伤舰船的承载能力和环境载荷涉及许多不确定因素。为评估某舰损伤情况下的结构安全性,提出了基于极限强度和极值载荷的损伤舰船结构可靠性模型,分析了损伤舰船极限强度和极值载荷的统计特征,采用拉丁超立方抽样与条件期望和对偶变数相结合的方法进行可靠性分析。可靠性分析结果表明损伤舰船目标裕度可取0.75。     

我国浮式生产储油装置技术的发展现状

介绍了我国浮式生产储油装置（FPSO）的分布现状，描述了我国渤海与南海不同海域FPSO的特点。为了使FPSO长期系泊在海上安全生产、运营可靠，从FPSO设计关键，诸如船体波浪载荷、油气工艺模块支架与船体连接技术、不同单点系泊系统的船体结构设计等方面进行了重点阐述。