设计阶段高尔寺特长公路隧道安全风险评估

高尔寺隧道位于国道318线康定县与雅江县交界处,为单洞双向行车特长高海拔越岭公路隧道,目前隧道工程风险评估处于起步阶段.文章遵循“公路桥梁和隧道工程设计安全风险评估指南”的要求,同时参照了国内外其它行业隧道工程风险管理规范或规程,针对高尔寺隧道特点,采用了隧道分段风险评估流程、基于工程类比的检查表法风险辨识和专家调查法风险估测进行了隧道设计阶段的安全风险评估,分析了潜在的风险事件和风险等级,以及有效的风险控制.在无现行规范可循的情况下,进行了设计阶段隧道工程安全风险评估工作的实践,具有一定的参考意义.     

隧道洞口段危岩落石风险评估

由于线路的走向及场地的限制,许多隧道进出口的边、仰坡高陡、地质条件恶劣,在雨水及地震等自然灾害的作用下,会形成危岩、落石、崩塌等,对隧道洞口段及相邻的桥梁、线路造成危害,危及行车安全.文章参考有关道路边坡落石风险评估技术,从系统/问题的定义入手,将隧道工程系统分为洞口段工程和洞身段工程等子系统,以使问题分析更加明确;提出采用初步定性评估和细部定量评估的隧道洞口段危岩落石风险评估方法,并应用于在建的兰渝线隧道洞口段工程;应用Rockfall软件,进行了范家坪隧道出口仰坡危岩落石运动轨迹的预测,结果表明原设计的明洞长度不能满足对防治山上危岩落石的要求.     

ANP-FE与数值模拟结合在地铁隧道近接施工风险评估与管理中的应用

文章针对地铁隧道近接施工工程风险评估与管理问题,提出了将ANP-FE和数值模拟结合起来的一种全新风险管理理念和方法;在调查、研究和分析得到地铁隧道近接施工风险评价指标体系的基础上,将ANP与FE结合起来对风险进行评估,以解决风险影响因素之间相互依存和反馈的模糊性问题;然后以风险评价结果为依据,制定风险防范和控制措施;进一步对采取对策后的工程开展数值模拟,以此来检验措施的有效性和评价方法的科学性;最后,以广州地铁6号线某近接工程为研究对象,对该风险评估与管理方法的具体实施过程做了详细阐述.实践证明,该理论体系和方法能够有效地对地铁隧道近接施工工程的风险进行评估、控制和管理,提高风险评估过程的科学性.     

隧道施工风险评估关键技术研究

施工技术、施工环境以及施工设备是隧道施工中的主要安全风险因素。文章立足于上述风险因素,从梯阶层级搭建、风险因素的权重核算及层级因素排序等方面,研究了隧道施工的安全风险评估关键技术,并结合工程案例,验证所研究的技术是否满足隧道施工安全风险评估要求。     

铁路隧道风险评估若干问题探讨

文章探讨了当前隧道风险评估中存在的隧道初始和残余风险综合等级判定准则的不统一、施工阶段风险评估中风险因素的缺失及初步设计阶段风险评估"谈虎色变"、施工阶段风险评估"避轻就重"等问题,提出了解决这些问题的对策,即初始和残余风险综合等级就高准则、隧道施工阶段快速适时风险评估和特殊地区隧道初始风险等级合理确定等。     

关角隧道风险评估

隧道风险评估在我国铁路建设中刚刚起步,还需要在今后的建设实践中不断地积累经验,完善风险评估和风险管理方法,使其在施工中充分发挥作用.文章以关角隧道为例,介绍了设计阶段的风险评估方法、风险识别、风险评价及风险对策;通过风险对策在施工中的适时应用,大大降低了关角隧道施工中的安全风险,是风险评估走向成熟的有益实践,可为其它隧道风险评估提供参考.     

雷达图法在复杂地质下岩溶隧道风险评估中的应用

诱发岩溶隧道风险的因素复杂多样。针对复杂地质条件下岩溶隧道风险评估中存在主观性与客观权重单一片面性的问题,文章采用定性和定量相结合的思想,选取主要影响因素,建立岩溶隧道风险评估体系,利用熵值法确定指标权重并对指标进行归一化处理。在此基础上,建立数值与图形相结合的雷达图法评估模型,引入四个风险等级对应的参考样本,定量并直观地得出各等级综合评估范围,从而实现岩溶隧道风险评估。评估结果验证了雷达图法岩溶隧道风险评估模型的可行性和准确性,可为岩溶隧道风险评估提供理论依据。     

肯特指数法在高速公路隧道中的安全风险评估

影响公路隧道施工的风险因素有很多,且这些风险因素具有随机性、不确定性和模糊性,需要进行安全风险评估。文章以广西某高速公路隧道为研究对象,根据安全评价的原则和要求,从几种常用的风险评价方法中选择肯特指数法对该高速公路隧道进行安全风险评估。评估结果表明:该高速公路隧道属于可接受风险水平,与现场情况基本吻合,验证了肯特指数法可以很好地用于高速公路隧道施工安全风险评估。     

隧道改扩建工程施工风险评估研究

为研究既有隧道原位改扩建工程施工过程中的风险,以山东淄博淄川区黑峪隧道改扩建工程为例,建立新的隧道改扩建工程施工安全总体风险评估表,评估该工程总体风险属于Ⅳ级极高风险。综合核对表法和专家调查法进行危险源普查,识别出六项重大危险源,并对重大风险进行专项评估。以塌方风险为例,结合隧道改扩建项目施工难度和支护方法,从超前管棚支护、既有隧道洞口加固、新旧隧道交叉处围岩级别、新旧隧道交叉处施工支护方法等多个因子考虑,对塌方风险源进行指标体系法评估。并从支护、爆破、加固、其它施工措施四个方面制定风险消减措施,预防隧道塌方事故。     

基于可拓-熵权理论的深大竖井坍塌风险评估研究

深大竖井作为特长公路隧道重要的辅助通道,其施工安全风险评估问题越来越受到重视,尤其是当竖井附近区域处在富水破碎带等复杂地质条件下时,容易在施工过程中出现坍塌等不良地质灾害,因此需要进行具有针对性的施工安全风险评估研究。文章将可拓理论与熵权法进行结合,选取恰当的一级指标与二级指标构成坍塌风险评估指标体系,建立了适用于隧道深大竖井的坍塌风险评估模型,并以实际工程为依托对该模型进行了应用分析,提出了相应的深大竖井坍塌风险控制措施。通过比较其他两种隧道常用风险评估模型,以及与现场实际情况进行对照,验证了该风险评估模型具有较高的适用性与可信度。     

Survey of R&D in PRT systems

A survey of research and development in advanced transit has been made by Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg in cooperation with Trans21 in Boston. Summary findings are reported for fourteen academic research programs and ten development programs for PRT. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the International Conference of PRT and other Emerging Systems held in Minneapolis in 1996.     

The Impact of Container Type Diversification on Regional British Port Development Strategies

Abstract

Despite a concentration of container traffic in the southeast of the UK over the last few decades, regional ports are attempting new development strategies to capture or retain specific traffic segments. These include intra-European short-sea traffic and a potentially increasing feeder market. These trends are reflected in the movement of different container types, which result in a number of planning challenges related to changing infrastructural and operational requirements. This paper uses highly disaggregated data on container type movements to address three issues that can inform these planning challenges. First, the imbalance of trade resulting in empty container repositioning; second, the requirement for gauge-cleared rail routes to cater for the increasing proportion of high-cube containers; and third, the specialisation of European short-sea traffic at secondary UK ports. The results reveal the disproportionate repositioning of empty containers at Scottish ports and the importance of 45?ft, high-cube and pallet-wide containers at regional ports, highlighting their focus on intra-European short-sea traffic and raising difficulties relating to their lower quality of landside infrastructure (particularly rail) in comparison to the large south-eastern ports. The potential repercussions on hinterland infrastructure development raise questions about both public and private sector responses to regional port development.     

Modular route bus design – A method of meeting transport operation and vehicle manufacturing requirements

This research examines the problem of route bus specification and vehicle manufacturability. In order for bus operators to provide transport services, a range of vehicle configurations must be available from bus manufacturers, generating variety which has a negative impact on the manufacturing process. Larger part inventories, uncontrolled labour tasks and more troublesome maintenance are known impacts of this variety. This research identifies the functional necessities in route bus interior design and reduces the problems in bus manufacture and operation caused by specification diversity by proposing a modularised system of bus design. In particular, it makes recommendations as to how bus configuration should be carried out, ensuring an optimum mix of operational and manufacturing needs:

• 1.Determine user needs before the bus specification process.
• 2.Designs to be developed by the manufacturer in response to user needs.
• 3.This design should be standardised where possible, as suggested by the user needs.
• 4.Where user needs dictate product variations, apply a mass customisation approach to accommodate these needs.

The recommendations are communicated in design proposals for a modular bus interior, demonstrated by four cases designed to meet the present status quo of bus interior design and predictions for the future of the field.     

管道风险分析指数评分法中分值调整初探

管道风险分析指数评分法中重要步骤之一就是确定影响管道事故因素的权重,各个管道风险因素在整个管道事故中所占的权重是不相同的。针对目前管道风险分析指数评分法基本假设之一（各因素的分值范围都是0～100分）,为了更加客观、准确、合理地反映各个风险因素对于管道事故的影响程度,提出并论述了依据层次分析法的数学逻辑性进行综合计算得出管道风险因素的权重,然后对评分法中各个因素的最高分值,根据其权重不同进行相应调整,从而增强评价者对风险因素的认识和评判能力,提高管道风险评价结果的准确性。     

Determinants of modal choice in freight transport

In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector.     

A century of evolution of the accessibility concept

The concept of accessibility has acquired numerous meanings along multiple dimensions during the century of its evolution. This essay argues for the salience of two dimensions: application-based and definition-based. In its application, accessibility has incorporated positive and normative dimensions which have varied in prominence over time. In its definition, accessibility has varied between a mode of evaluation incorporating measured mobility and proximity, on the one hand, and a predefined market basket of urbanist improvements to transportation and land use systems, on the other. Advocates of the accessibility shift should emphasize both the measured approach to accessibility and accessibility’s normative side.     

Optimization of bus stop locations for improving transit accessibility

A mathematical model is developed in this paper to improve the accessibility of a bus service. To formulate the optimization model, a segment of a bus route is given, on which a number of demand entry points are distributed realistically. The objective total cost function (i.e. the sum of supplier and user costs) is minimized by optimizing the number and locations of stops, subject to non‐additive users' value of time. A numerical example is designed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method thus developed to optimize the bus stop location problem. The sensitivity of the total cost to various parameters (e.g. value of users' time, access speed, and demand density) and the effect of the parameters on the optimal stop locations are analyzed and discussed.     

Productive efficiency and ownership of urban bus services

The established ownership mix of urban bus operations in Australia provides a unique opportunity to investigate the productivity differences between public and private bus service supply. Using duality theory in economics which links economic indices of factor productivity to the cost structure of a firm, we develop empirical measures of total and partial productivity of inputs, and adjust the differences for the effects of ownership status and operating environment. The evidence supports the notion that private supply of public passenger transport in general has performed more efficiently in the past than public supply, although the differences in productivity need not continue in the future.