层次分析法在桥面沥青铺装层养护决策中的应用

针对桥面沥青铺装层预防性养护措施,文章总结了影响养护决策的主要因素,建立了三级评价指标体系的层次分析模型。通过判断矩阵和指标权重的综合排序,给出层次分析评价过程和方案优选的决策方法。研究结果表明,AHP法可作为桥面沥青铺装层预防性养护方案优选重要依据。     

基于模糊优选理论的软基处理方案选择

基于模糊优选理论,用二元对比法确定各因素相对隶属度及权重,建立了软基处理方案优选模型,并结合具体工程实例,进行了综合评价分析。结果表明:运用模糊优选理论进行软基处理方案选择,将定性分析和定量计算相结合,可综合考虑多种因素影响,从多方案中选出最优方案。     

考虑多因素下互通式立交方案选择的优化算法

依据城市道路网络规划,从总体上分析道路的交通流量特征是建立城市互通式立交的有效方法,其设计应综合诸多影响因素以及其交通功能。文章提出了互通式立交选型的评价指标体系并对指标进行了量化,介绍了层次分析法、均值方差法和综合评价法三种指标权重值计算方法,以及信息不确定的PROMETHEE方法、灰色关联理想解法构建混合方程以及扩张矩阵算法FCV三种决策模型方法,对诸多立交方案进行优选分析,并依据Borda函数对所有方案的分数进行排名。所提出的算法和模型,可在众多方案中选择出最佳的互通式立交方案,不仅能优化道路网络,还能减少交通堵塞。     

浅谈施工企业经营投标阶段控制和决策

本文根据施工企业经营投标的阶段控制和决策，就工程项目信息追踪、投标项目优选、投标过程控制和决策、投标报价最终确定决策等四个方面进行了论述。     

浅析公路工程方案优选与造价控制的关系

文章基于设计方案优选的原则,提出公路工程方案设计中应树立全寿命周期成本的理念,并进行多方案的技术经济比选,合理确定工程设计方案,平衡技术与经济的关系,以通过方案优选达到控制造价的目的。     

基于CBR的山区铁路隧道开挖方法辅助决策模型研究

为了将以往工程案例的经验用于拟建川藏铁路隧道工程开挖方法的决策,基于案例推理技术,文章建立了一种隧道开挖方法辅助决策模型。首先从数个特征属性对隧道工程案例进行定量表示并基于OWA算子的赋权方法确定各特征属性权值;在此基础之上,利用灰色关联分析法完成相似案例的检索;在案例重用阶段,利用BP神经网络对相似案例进行训练,将训练后的网络用于待建隧道工程项目施工方案的推理,得到建议方案。最后将该模型应用至川藏铁路二郎山隧道的开挖方案设计中,验证了其有效性。结果表明:该模型能充分利用以往隧道工程案例,即使是在地形地质等工程资料不够详细明确的情况下,也能通过推理得出合理可行的开挖方案。     

集对分析法在地基处理方案评价中的应用

建立了基于集对分析理论的地基处理评价模型,并且运用层次分析法建立指标层次结构,确定指标权重.这种方法提高了方案评价的可信度,为地基处理方案的优选提供了一种简单、实用的评价方法.     

基于层次分析法的公路路基侧滑治理对策优选分析

基于层次分析法原理,充分考虑社会效益和经济效益,提出公路路基侧滑治理对策方案的优选方法,结合某一工程案例,结果表明,该方法能运用于公路侧滑治理对策方案的优选中,为设计部门养护部门和管理部门的决策提供参考。     

基于SVM-MAUT的隧道低碳施工方案优选

在双碳目标背景下，隧道低碳施工方案优选成为一种迫切需求。在多属性决策综合评价体系基础上，对隧道施工过程在不同场景要求下的待评估稳定指标展开讨论，筛选出围岩稳定性、地层稳定性、支护稳定性3个因素，与非稳定性指标平行组构，着重考虑碳排放非稳定性因素，建立隧道低碳施工方案综合评价指标体系。基于支持向量机-多效用度函数法（Support Vector Machine-Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, SVM-MAUT）设计映射模型，以替换传统综合评价方法，探索低碳化隧道施工方案比选方法。将提出的比选方法应用于大凉山1号隧道破碎大变形软岩段施工方法优选，根据玄武岩段、黏土岩段和粉砂质泥岩段的方案效用度大小，选出最优方案组合，相较极端排放量该方案每延米分别减少2 313.01 kg、790.10 kg和717.84 kg的碳排放当量，隧道稳定性符合设计与规范要求，截面收敛变形均在设定控制值内。     

苏州市金庭环岛公路路线方案优选研究

针对环岛公路路线方案优选的问题,将层次分析法运用于路线方案优选之中,构建了优选模型,并结合具体项目,较好地解决了传统方法在方案定量与定性指标出现交叉时难以选取的问题,为工程实践提供了一种科学的评选方法。     

新形势下城市轨道交通项目设计咨询服务的内容与发展方向初探

目前,城市轨道交通工程项目设计咨询在实现科学决策、优化设计方案、完善建设条件以及节省建设投资等方面发挥了越来越重要的作用。本文结合新形势下对城市轨道交通项目设计咨询的要求,对其服务的内容进行初步的介绍,并对以全过程服务为发展方向的设计咨询服务特点进行了探讨。     

Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling

This study reviews the 50-year history of travel demand forecasting models, concentrating on their accuracy and relevance for public decision-making. Only a few studies of model accuracy have been performed, but they find that the likely inaccuracy in the 20-year forecast of major road projects is ±30 % at minimum, with some estimates as high as ±40–50 % over even shorter time horizons. There is a significant tendency to over-estimate traffic and underestimate costs, particularly for toll roads. Forecasts of transit costs and ridership are even more uncertain and also significantly optimistic. The greatest knowledge gap in US travel demand modeling is the unknown accuracy of US urban road traffic forecasts. Modeling weaknesses leading to these problems (non-behavioral content, inaccuracy of inputs and key assumptions, policy insensitivity, and excessive complexity) are identified. In addition, the institutional and political environments that encourage optimism bias and low risk assessment in forecasts are also reviewed. Major institutional factors, particularly low local funding matches and competitive grants, confound scenario modeling efforts and dampen the hope that technical modeling improvements alone can improve forecasting accuracy. The fundamental problems are not technical but institutional: high non-local funding shares for large projects warp local perceptions of project benefit versus costs, leading to both input errors and political pressure to fund projects. To deal with these issues, the paper outlines two different approaches. The first, termed ‘hubris’, proposes a multi-decade effort to substantially improve model forecasting accuracy over time by monitoring performance and improving data, methods and understanding of travel, but also by deliberately modifying the institutional arrangements that lead to optimism bias. The second, termed ‘humility’, proposes to openly quantify and recognize the inherent uncertainty in travel demand forecasts and deliberately reduce their influence on project decision-making. However to be successful either approach would require monitoring and reporting accuracy, standards for modeling and forecasting, greater model transparency, educational initiatives, coordinated research, strengthened ethics and reduction of non-local funding ratios so that localities have more at stake.     

Uncertainty in the context of highway appraisal

Transport planning is based on traffic forecasts which are subject to great uncertainties. These uncertainties have generally been ignored or, at least, not explicitly included in the planning process. This paper describes the principles behind the estimation of the uncertainty (or range of error) of the forecasts of a traffic model and discusses the means by which this information can be absorbed into the decision-making in transport planning projects. These principles have been applied to the appraisal of a British highway project and throughout the paper reference is made to this project in order to illustrate the results of the practical application of an explicit treatment of uncertainty. It is believed that this approach can and should be developed for application in most areas of transport planning, leading inevitably to an improvement in the quality of the decisions taken.     

广西南宁盆地工程地质特征浅析

文章结合工程实例,对广西南宁盆地区域地质稳定性进行评价。通过划分工程地质组层分别进行岩土体质量评价,进行现场和室内试验,测定岩土体参数并进行优化分析,确定地基设计参数,为工程设计施工提供可靠的依据。     

兰成渝输油管道建设重要经验概述

兰州-成都-重庆输油管道通过黄土高原和秦巴山地，地质条件复杂。从工程设计、优化线路、施工和环境保护等方面总结了兰成渝管道建设中的重要经验，对今后类似工程的设计与施工提供借鉴。     

A multicriteria decision support methodology for evaluating airport expansion plans

Rational decision-making requires an assessment of advantages and disadvantages of choice possibilities, including non-market effects (such as externalities). This also applies to strategic decision-making in the transport sector (including aviation). In the past decades various decision support and evaluation methods have been developed in which a market evaluation played a prominent role. The intrinsic limitations of these approaches were also increasingly recognised. Gradually, a variety of adjusted multidimensional methods has been developed over the past years to complement conventional cost–benefit analysis (CBA). These methods aim to investigate and evaluate all relevant impacts of a choice possibility (e.g., project, plan, or programme) on the basis of a multitude of important policy criteria (so-called multicriteria methods). They have a particular relevance in case of non-priced or qualitative effects. There is a clear need for a systematic and polyvalent multicriteria approach to many actual planning issues, such as land use or transportation. This paper offers a new evaluation framework based on a blend of three types of approaches, viz. Regime Analysis, the Saaty method and the Flag Model. All these methods have been developed separately in the past; the paper makes an effort to offer a cohesive framework, which can be used for the e valuation of spatial-economic and environmental-economic policy issues. This new tool is tested by means of a case study on conflicting plans (and policy views) for airport expansion options in the Maastricht area in the southern part of The Netherlands.     

Multi-criteria optimization of traffic signals: Mobility,safety, and environment

Two-dimensional multi-objective optimizations have been used for decades for the problems in traffic engineering although only few times so far in the optimization of signal timings. While the other engineering and science disciplines have utilized visualization of 3-dimensional Pareto fronts in the optimization studies, we have not seen many of those concepts applied to traffic signal optimization problems. To bridge the gap in the existing knowledge this study presents a methodology where 3-dimensional Pareto Fronts of signal timings, which are expressed through mobility, (surrogate) safety, and environmental factors, are optimized by use of an evolutionary algorithm. The study uses a segment of 5 signalized intersections in West Valley City, Utah, to test signal timings which provide a balance between mobility, safety and environment. In addition, a set of previous developed signal timing scenarios, including some of the Connected Vehicle technologies such as GLOSA, were conducted to evaluate the quality of the 3-dimensional Pareto front solutions. The results show success of 3-dimensinal Pareto fronts moving towards optimality. The resulting signal timing plans do not show large differences between themselves but all improve on the signal timings from the field, significantly. The commonly used optimization of standard single-objective functions shows robust solutions. The new set of Connected Vehicle technologies also shows promising benefits, especially in the area of reducing inter-vehicular friction. The resulting timing plans from two optimization sets (constrained and unconstrained) show that environmental and safe signal timings coincide but somewhat contradict mobility. Further research is needed to apply similar concepts on a variety of networks and traffic conditions before generalizing findings.     

造价工程师对工程造价的控制和管理

工程造价的有效控制和管理是工程建设管理的重要组成部分。对造价工程师在投资决策阶段、设计阶段、实施阶段公路建设项目的造价控制进行了论述。     

Measuring uncertainty in discrete choice travel demand forecasting models

In transportation projects, uncertainty related to the difference between forecast and actual demand is of major interest for the decision-maker, as it can have a substantial influence on the viability of a project. This paper identifies and quantifies discrete choice model uncertainty, which is present in the model parameters and attributes, and determines its impact on risk taking for decision-making applied to a case study of the High-Speed Rail project in Portugal. The methodology includes bootstrapping for the parameter variation, a postulated triangular distribution for the mode-specific input and a probabilistic graphical model for the socio-economic input variation. In comparison to point estimates, the findings for mode shift results in a wider swing in the system, which constitutes valuable information for decision-makers. The methodology, findings and conclusions presented in this study can be generalized to projects involving similar models.     

交通事故与公路运输业状况的关联分析

文章针对交通事故与公路运输业状况，结合我国1998-2006年间的交通事故与公路运输业典型指标的统计数据，采用灰色关联分析法对交通事故及公路运输业状况之间的关联度进行了研究，可为政府相关部门加强交通安全管理、抑制交通事故的发生提供一定的科学依据。